The Framingham Risk Score is a sex-specific

algorithm In mathematics and computer science, an algorithm () is a finite sequence of rigorous instructions, typically used to solve a class of specific problems or to perform a computation. Algorithms are used as specifications for performing ...

used to estimate the 10-year

cardiovascular risk Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels. CVD includes coronary artery diseases (CAD) such as angina and myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack). Other CVDs include stroke, ...

of an individual. The Framingham Risk Score was first developed based on data obtained from the

Framingham Heart Study The Framingham Heart Study is a long-term, ongoing cardiovascular cohort study of residents of the city of Framingham, Massachusetts. The study began in 1948 with 5,209 adult subjects from Framingham, and is now on its third generation of participa ...

, to estimate the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease. In order to assess the 10-year

cardiovascular disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels. CVD includes coronary artery diseases (CAD) such as angina and myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack). Other CVDs include stroke, h ...

risk, cerebrovascular events,

peripheral artery disease Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is an abnormal narrowing of arteries other than those that supply the heart or brain. When narrowing occurs in the heart, it is called coronary artery disease, and in the brain, it is called cerebrovascular diseas ...

and

heart failure Heart failure (HF), also known as congestive heart failure (CHF), is a syndrome, a group of signs and symptoms caused by an impairment of the heart's blood pumping function. Symptoms typically include shortness of breath, excessive fatigue, an ...

were subsequently added as disease outcomes for the 2008 Framingham Risk Score, on top of coronary heart disease.

Cardiovascular Risk Scoring systems

The Framingham Risk Score is one of a number of scoring systems used to determine an individual's chances of developing cardiovascular disease. A number of these scoring systems are available online. Cardiovascular risk scoring systems give an estimate of the probability that a person will develop cardiovascular disease within a specified amount of time, usually 10 to 30 years. Because they give an indication of the risk of developing cardiovascular disease, they also indicate who is most likely to benefit from prevention. For this reason, cardiovascular risk scores are used to determine who should be offered preventive drugs such as drugs to lower blood pressure and drugs to lower cholesterol levels. For example, nearly 30% of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in both men and women were singularly attributable to blood pressure levels that exceeded high normal (≥130/85), showing that blood pressure management and monitoring is paramount both to cardiovascular health and prediction of outcomes.

Usefulness

Because risk scores such as the Framingham Risk Score give an indication of the likely benefits of prevention, they are useful for both the individual patient and for the clinician in helping decide whether lifestyle modification and preventive medical treatment and for patient education, by identifying men and women at increased risk for future cardiovascular events. Coronary heart disease (CHD) risk at 10 years in percent can be calculated with the help of the Framingham Risk Score. Individuals with low risk have 10% or less CHD risk at 10 years, with intermediate risk 10-20%, and with high risk 20% or more. However, it should be remembered that these categorisations are arbitrary. A more useful metric is to consider the effects of treatment. If a group of 100 persons has a 20% ten-year risk of cardiovascular disease it means that we should expect that 20 of these 100 individuals will develop cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease or stroke) in the next 10 years and eighty of them will not develop cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years. If they were to take a combination of treatments (for example drugs to lower cholesterol levels plus drugs to lower blood pressure) that reduced their risk of cardiovascular disease by half it means that 10 of these 100 individuals should be expected to develop cardiovascular disease in the next 10 years and 90 of them should not be expected to develop cardiovascular disease. If that was the case then 10 of these individuals would have avoided cardiovascular disease by taking treatment for 10 years; 10 would get cardiovascular disease whether or not they took treatment, and 80 would not have got cardiovascular disease whether or not they took treatment. Despite their widespread popularity, randomized trials assessing the impact of using cardiovascular disease risk scores show limited impact on patient outcomes. Although there is good evidence that targeting individuals with high total CVD risk is the most efficient way to reduce CVD-related morbidity and mortality, to date trials assessing the usefulness of risk scores at helping clinicians target high risk patients show limited benefit. It is important to recognize that the strongest predictor of cardiovascular risk in any risk equation is age.

Background

Cardiovascular disease Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a class of diseases that involve the heart or blood vessels. CVD includes coronary artery diseases (CAD) such as angina and myocardial infarction (commonly known as a heart attack). Other CVDs include stroke, h ...

is common in the general population, affecting the majority of adults. It includes: # Coronary heart disease (CHD):

Myocardial infarction A myocardial infarction (MI), commonly known as a heart attack, occurs when blood flow decreases or stops to the coronary artery of the heart, causing damage to the heart muscle. The most common symptom is chest pain or discomfort which may tra ...

(MI),

angina pectoris Angina, also known as angina pectoris, is chest pain or pressure, usually caused by insufficient blood flow to the heart muscle (myocardium). It is most commonly a symptom of coronary artery disease. Angina is typically the result of obstru ...

(HF), and coronary death. #

Cerebrovascular disease Cerebrovascular disease includes a variety of medical conditions that affect the blood vessels of the brain and the cerebral circulation. Arteries supplying oxygen and nutrients to the brain are often damaged or deformed in these disorders. The ...

stroke A stroke is a medical condition in which poor blood flow to the brain causes cell death. There are two main types of stroke: ischemic, due to lack of blood flow, and hemorrhagic, due to bleeding. Both cause parts of the brain to stop funct ...

and

transient ischemic attack A transient ischemic attack (TIA), commonly known as a mini-stroke, is a minor stroke whose noticeable symptoms usually end in less than an hour. TIA causes the same symptoms associated with strokes, such as weakness or numbness on one side of ...

(TIA). #

Peripheral arterial disease Peripheral artery disease (PAD) is an abnormal narrowing of arteries other than those that supply the heart or brain. When narrowing occurs in the heart, it is called coronary artery disease, and in the brain, it is called cerebrovascular diseas ...

intermittent claudication Intermittent claudication, also known as vascular claudication, is a symptom that describes muscle pain on mild exertion (ache, cramp, numbness or sense of fatigue), classically in the calf muscle, which occurs during exercise, such as walking, a ...

and significant limb

ischemia Ischemia or ischaemia is a restriction in blood supply to any tissue, muscle group, or organ of the body, causing a shortage of oxygen that is needed for cellular metabolism (to keep tissue alive). Ischemia is generally caused by problems w ...

. # Aortic disease: Aortic

atherosclerosis Atherosclerosis is a pattern of the disease arteriosclerosis in which the wall of the artery develops abnormalities, called lesions. These lesions may lead to narrowing due to the buildup of atheromatous plaque. At onset there are usually no ...

thoracic aortic aneurysm A thoracic aortic aneurysm is an aortic aneurysm that presents primarily in the thorax. A thoracic aortic aneurysm is the "ballooning" of the upper aspect of the aorta, above the diaphragm. Untreated or unrecognized they can be fatal due to disse ...

, and

abdominal aortic aneurysm Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a localized enlargement of the abdominal aorta such that the diameter is greater than 3 cm or more than 50% larger than normal. They usually cause no symptoms, except during rupture. Occasionally, abdominal ...

. An individual's risk for future cardiovascular events is modifiable, by lifestyle changes and preventive medical treatment. Lifestyle changes can include stopping

smoking Smoking is a practice in which a substance is burned and the resulting smoke is typically breathed in to be tasted and absorbed into the bloodstream. Most commonly, the substance used is the dried leaves of the tobacco plant, which have bee ...

healthy diet A healthy diet is a diet that maintains or improves overall health. A healthy diet provides the body with essential nutrition: fluid, macronutrients such as protein, micronutrients such as vitamins, and adequate fibre and food energy. A health ...

, regular

exercise Exercise is a body activity that enhances or maintains physical fitness and overall health and wellness. It is performed for various reasons, to aid growth and improve strength, develop muscles and the cardiovascular system, hone athletic ...

, etc. Preventive medical treatment can include a

statin Statins, also known as HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors, are a class of lipid-lowering medications that reduce illness and mortality in those who are at high risk of cardiovascular disease. They are the most common cholesterol-lowering drugs. Lo ...

, mini dose

aspirin Aspirin, also known as acetylsalicylic acid (ASA), is a nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) used to reduce pain, fever, and/or inflammation, and as an antithrombotic. Specific inflammatory conditions which aspirin is used to treat in ...

, treatment for

hypertension Hypertension (HTN or HT), also known as high blood pressure (HBP), is a long-term medical condition in which the blood pressure in the arteries is persistently elevated. High blood pressure usually does not cause symptoms. Long-term high b ...

, etc. It is important to be able to predict the risk of an individual patient, in order to decide when to initiate lifestyle modification and preventive medical treatment. Multiple risk models for the prediction of cardiovascular risk of individual patients have been developed. One such key

risk model Financial risk modeling is the use of formal mathematical and econometric techniques to measure, monitor and control the market risk, credit risk, and operational risk on a firm's balance sheet, on a bank's trading book, or re a fund manager's po ...

is the Framingham Risk Score. The Framingham Risk Score is based on findings from the

Validation

The Framingham Risk Score has been validated in the US, both in men and women, both in European Americans and African Americans. While several studies have claimed to improve on the FRS, there is little evidence for any improved prediction beyond the Framingham risk score

Limitations

The Framingham Risk Score predicts only future coronary heart disease (CHD) events, however, it does not predict future total cardiovascular events, meaning that it does not predict risk for stroke, transient ischemic attack (TIA), and heart failure. These also important patient outcomes were included in the 2008 Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score. The predicted risk for an individual usually is higher with the 2008 Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Score than with the 2002 Framingham Risk Score. The Framingham Risk Score could overestimate (or underestimate) risk in populations other than the US population, and within the US in populations other than European Americans and African Americans, e.g. Hispanic Americans and Native Americans. It is not yet clear if this limitation is real, or appears to be real because of differences in methodology, etc. As a result, other countries may prefer to use another risk score, e.g.

SCORE Score or scorer may refer to: *Test score, the result of an exam or test Business * Score Digital, now part of Bauer Radio * Score Entertainment, a former American trading card design and manufacturing company * Score Media, a former Canadian ...

(HeartScore is the interactive version of SCORE - Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation), which has been recommended by the

European Society of Cardiology The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) is an independent non-profit, non-governmental professional association that works to advance the prevention, diagnosis and management of diseases of the heart and blood vessels, and improve scientific un ...

in 2007. If possible, a

cardiology Cardiology () is a branch of medicine that deals with disorders of the heart and the cardiovascular system. The field includes medical diagnosis and treatment of congenital heart defects, coronary artery disease, heart failure, valvular hea ...

professional should select the risk prediction model which is most appropriate for an individual patient and should remember that this is only an estimate.

Versions

The current version of the Framingham Risk Score was published in 2008. The publishing body is the ATP III, i.e. the «Adult Treatment Panel III», an expert panel of the

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) is the third largest Institute of the National Institutes of Health, located in Bethesda, Maryland, United States. It is tasked with allocating about $3.6 billion in FY 2020 in tax revenue to ...

, which is part of the

National Institutes of Health The National Institutes of Health, commonly referred to as NIH (with each letter pronounced individually), is the primary agency of the United States government responsible for biomedical and public health research. It was founded in the late 1 ...

(NIH), USA. The prior version was published in 2002 The original Framingham Risk Score had been published in 1998.

Differences between the versions

The first Framingham Risk Score included age, sex, LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, blood pressure (and also whether the patient is treated or not for his/her hypertension), diabetes, and smoking. It estimated the 10-year risk for coronary heart disease (CHD). It performed well and correctly predicted a 10-year risk for CHD in American men and women of European and African descent. The updated version was modified to include

dyslipidemia Dyslipidemia is an abnormal amount of lipids (e.g. triglycerides, cholesterol and/or fat phospholipids) in the blood. Dyslipidemia is a risk factor for the development of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease ( ASCVD). ASCVD includes coronary ar ...

, age range, hypertension treatment, smoking, and total cholesterol, and it excluded

diabetes Diabetes, also known as diabetes mellitus, is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by a high blood sugar level (hyperglycemia) over a prolonged period of time. Symptoms often include frequent urination, increased thirst and increased ap ...

, because Type 2 diabetes meanwhile was considered to be a CHD Risk Equivalent, having the same 10-year risk as individuals with prior CHD. Patients with Type 1 diabetes were considered separately with slightly less aggressive goals; while at increased risk, no study had shown them to be at equivalent risk for CHD as those with previously diagnosed coronary disease or Type 2 diabetes.

CHD risk equivalent

Some patients without known CHD have risk of cardiovascular events that is comparable to that of patients with established CHD. Cardiology professionals refer to such patients as having a CHD risk equivalent. These patients should be managed as patients with known CHD. CHD risk equivalents are patients with a 10-year risk for MI or coronary death >20%. CHD risk equivalents are primarily other clinical forms of atherosclerotic disease. The

National Cholesterol Education Program {{Primary sources, article, date=May 2011The National Cholesterol Education Program is a program managed by the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute, a division of the National Institutes of Health. Its goal is to reduce increased cardiovascular ...

NCEP's ATP III guidelines also list diabetes as a CHD risk equivalent since it also has a 10-year risk for CHD around 20%. NCEP ATP III CHD risk equivalents are: # Clinical coronary heart disease (CHD) # Symptomatic

carotid artery disease Carotid artery stenosis is a narrowing or constriction of any part of the carotid arteries, usually caused by atherosclerosis. Signs and symptoms The common carotid artery is the large artery whose pulse can be felt on both sides of the neck unde ...

(CAD) #

(PAD) #

Abdominal aortic aneurysm Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a localized enlargement of the abdominal aorta such that the diameter is greater than 3 cm or more than 50% larger than normal. They usually cause no symptoms, except during rupture. Occasionally, abdominal ...

(AAA) #

Diabetes mellitus Diabetes, also known as diabetes mellitus, is a group of metabolic disorders characterized by a high blood sugar level (hyperglycemia) over a prolonged period of time. Symptoms often include frequent urination, increased thirst and increased ap ...

Chronic kidney disease Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a type of kidney disease in which a gradual loss of kidney function occurs over a period of months to years. Initially generally no symptoms are seen, but later symptoms may include leg swelling, feeling tired, vom ...

Analysis of the US population with the Framingham/ATP III criteria

The Framingham/ATP III criteria were used to estimate CHD risk in the USA. Data from 11,611 patients from a very large study, the

NHANES The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) is a survey research program conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to assess the health and nutritional status of adults and children in the United States, and t ...

III, were used. The patients were 20 to 79 years of age and had no self-reported CHD, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, or diabetes. The results: 82% of patients had low risk (10% or less CHD risk at 10 years). 16% had intermediate risk (10-20%). 3% had high risk (20% or more). High risk was most commonly found in patients with advanced age and was more common in men than women.

Scoring

Framingham Risk Score for Women

Age: 20–34 years: Minus 7 points. 35–39 years: Minus 3 points. 40–44 years: 0 points. 45–49 years: 3 points. 50–54 years: 6 points. 55–59 years: 8 points. 60–64 years: 10 points. 65–69 years: 12 points. 70–74 years: 14 points. 75–79 years: 16 points. Total cholesterol, mg/dL: * Age 20–39 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 4 points. 200-239: 8 points. 240-279: 11 points. 280 or higher: 13 points. * Age 40–49 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 3 points. 200-239: 6 points. 240-279: 8 points. 280 or higher: 10 points. * Age 50–59 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 2 points. 200-239: 4 points. 240-279: 5 points. 280 or higher: 7 points. * Age 60–69 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 1 point. 200-239: 2 points. 240-279: 3 points. 280 or higher: 4 points. * Age 70–79 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 1 point. 200-239: 1 point. 240-279: 2 points. 280 or higher: 2 points. If cigarette smoker: Age 20–39 years: 9 points. • Age 40–49 years: 7 points. • Age 50–59 years: 4 points. • Age 60–69 years: 2 points. • Age 70–79 years: 1 point. All non smokers: 0 points. HDL cholesterol, mg/dL: 60 or higher: Minus 1 point. 50-59: 0 points. 40-49: 1 point. Under 40: 2 points. Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg: Untreated: Under 120: 0 points. 120-129: 1 point. 130-139: 2 points. 140-159: 3 points. 160 or higher: 4 points. • Treated: Under 120: 0 points. 120-129: 3 points. 130-139: 4 points. 140-159: 5 points. 160 or higher: 6 points. 10-year risk in %: Points total: Under 9 points: <1%. 9-12 points: 1%. 13-14 points: 2%. 15 points: 3%. 16 points: 4%. 17 points: 5%. 18 points: 6%. 19 points: 8%. 20 points: 11%. 21=14%, 22=17%, 23=22%, 24=27%, >25= Over 30%

Framingham Risk Score for Men

Age: 20–34 years: Minus 9 points. 35–39 years: Minus 4 points. 40–44 years: 0 points. 45–49 years: 3 points. 50–54 years: 6 points. 55–59 years: 8 points. 60–64 years: 10 points. 65–69 years: 11 points. 70–74 years: 12 points. 75–79 years: 13 points. Total cholesterol, mg/dL: * Age 20–39 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 4 points. 200-239: 7 points. 240-279: 9 points. 280 or higher: 11 points. * Age 40–49 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 3 points. 200-239: 5 points. 240-279: 6 points. 280 or higher: 8 points. * Age 50–59 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 2 points. 200-239: 3 points. 240-279: 4 points. 280 or higher: 5 points. * Age 60–69 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 1 point. 200-239: 1 point. 240-279: 2 points. 280 or higher: 3 points. * Age 70–79 years: Under 160: 0 points. 160-199: 0 points. 200-239: 0 points. 240-279: 1 point. 280 or higher: 1 point. If cigarette smoker: Age 20–39 years: 8 points. • Age 40–49 years: 5 points. • Age 50–59 years: 3 points. • Age 60–69 years: 1 point. • Age 70–79 years: 1 point. All non smokers: 0 points. HDL cholesterol, mg/dL: 60 or higher: Minus 1 point. 50-59: 0 points. 40-49: 1 point. Under 40: 2 points. Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg: Untreated: Under 120: 0 points. 120-129: 0 points. 130-139: 1 point. 140-159: 1 point. 160 or higher: 2 points. • Treated: Under 120: 0 points. 120-129: 1 point. 130-139: 2 points. 140-159: 2 points. 160 or higher: 3 points. 10-year risk in %: Points total: 0 point: <1%. 1-4 points: 1%. 5-6 points: 2%. 7 points: 3%. 8 points: 4%. 9 points: 5%. 10 points: 6%. 11 points: 8%. 12 points: 10%. 13 points: 12%. 14 points: 16%. 15 points: 20%. 16 points: 25%. 17 points or more: Over 30%.

Further risk score profiles based on the Framingham Heart Study

Not only coronary heart disease (CHD) events but also further risks can be predicted. Risk prediction models for cardiovascular disease outcomes other than CHD events have also been developed by the Framingham Heart Study researchers. Amongst others, a risk score for 10-year risk for atrial fibrillation has been developed.

References

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External links

Framingham Risk Score Calculator for Coronary Heart Disease
- Cholesterol in mg/dL
Framingham Coronary Heart Disease Risk Score
- Cholesterol in mg/dL or mmol/L
EuroHeart Project
Heart Medical scoring system