The Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (Fish-MIP) is a

marine biology Marine biology is the scientific study of the biology of marine life, organisms in the sea. Given that in biology many phyla, families and genera have some species that live in the sea and others that live on land, marine biology classifies s ...

project to compare

computer models Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be deter ...

of the

impact of climate change The effects of climate change impact the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching. They affect the water cycle, oceans, sea and land ice (glaciers), sea level ...

on sea life. Founded in 2013 as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), it was established to answer questions about the future of

marine biodiversity Marine life, sea life, or ocean life is the plants, animals and other organisms that live in the salt water of seas or oceans, or the brackish water of coastal estuaries. At a fundamental level, marine life affects the nature of the planet. M ...

, seafood supply,

fisheries Fishery can mean either the enterprise of raising or harvesting fish and other aquatic life; or more commonly, the site where such enterprise takes place ( a.k.a. fishing ground). Commercial fisheries include wild fisheries and fish farms, both ...

, and

marine ecosystem Marine ecosystems are the largest of Earth's aquatic ecosystems and exist in waters that have a high salt content. These systems contrast with freshwater ecosystems, which have a lower salt content. Marine waters cover more than 70% of the surf ...

functioning in the context of various

climate change scenario Climate change scenarios or socioeconomic scenarios are projections of future greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used by analysts to assess future Climate change vulnerability, vulnerability to climate change. Scenarios and ...

s. It combines diverse marine

ecosystem model An ecosystem model is an abstract, usually mathematical, representation of an ecological system (ranging in scale from an individual population, to an ecological community, or even an entire biome), which is studied to better understand the re ...

s from both the global and regional scale through a standardized

protocol Protocol may refer to: Sociology and politics * Protocol (politics), a formal agreement between nation states * Protocol (diplomacy), the etiquette of diplomacy and affairs of state * Etiquette, a code of personal behavior Science and technology ...

for ensemble modelling in an attempt to correct for any bias in the individual models that make up the ensemble. Fish-MIP's goal is to use this ensemble modelling to project a more robust picture of the future state of fisheries and marine ecosystems under the impacts of climate change, and ultimately to help inform fishing policy.

Background

Ensemble modelling

Ensemble modelling is combining the outputs of multiple models that are all working on the same question. This allows researchers to analyze the different vulnerabilities of each individual model, and weigh the impact of particular inputs. Aggregating all the outputs and then using the outputs with the highest frequency across the models minimizes the error in the projection.

Fish-MIP

Ensemble modelling is generally difficult because of the variety of possible inputs and outputs, which makes it challenging to run different models on the same data and compare results. The Fish-MIP protocols standardize input variables, as well as the names of files and data stores. The inputs are collected from simplified fishing scenarios, models of the climate and how much greenhouse gas will be in the atmosphere. These standardized inputs and scenarios can then be used to drive multiple ecosystem models, and the outputs are then combined through an ensemble modelling approach. The Fish-MIP standardizing protocol allow for these diverse inputs to be collated, thus minimizing projection error. Some of the models used:

Global

* Apex Predators ECOSystem Model (ApeCOSM) * BiOeconomic mArine Trophic Size-spectrum (BOATS)

Regional

* Atlantis *

Ecopath Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a free and open source ecosystem modelling software suite, initially started at NOAA by Jeffrey Polovina, but has since primarily been developed at the formerly UBC Fisheries Centre of the University of British Columbi ...

OSMOSE Osmose Productions is a French independent record label created in 1991 by Hervé Herbaut, after he had spent three years running a small mail order company. They specialize mainly in death and black metal bands. Many of the groups who began wi ...

Use in studies

Although at an earlier stage than the

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project In climatology, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a collaborative framework designed to improve knowledge of climate change. It was organized in 1995 by the Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM) of the World Climate Research ...

, as of 2021 studies suggest that larger fish species and the tropics are most affected by climate change. *Gómara et al. (2019) used it to predict tropical Pacific fisheries * du Pontavice et al. (2021) used it to examine the impacts of climate on predators and ecosystems * Bryndum-Buchholz et al. (2018) examined the impacts of climate change on animal biomass and ecosystem structure * Bryndum-Buchholz et al. (2020) used the model outputs to investigate the relationship between North Atlantic fisheries and climate change impacts * Boyce et al. 2020 used the modelling outputs to examine socioeconomic gaps that would result from climate induced biomass losses amongst fisheries * Lotze et al. al. 2019 also looked at the impact of climate change via

trophic Trophic, from Ancient Greek τροφικός (''trophikos'') "pertaining to food or nourishment", may refer to: * Trophic cascade * Trophic coherence * Trophic egg * Trophic function * Trophic hormone * Trophic level index * Trophic level * Trop ...

amplification of biomass losses of marine species

References

External links

* {{Official website
ISIpedia
the

outreach Outreach is the activity of providing services to any population that might not otherwise have access to those services. A key component of outreach is that the group providing it is not stationary, but mobile; in other words, it involves meetin ...

channel of ISIMIP where studies may be described in laymans terms
Fish-MIP
at

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Wikipedia Student Program Ecosystems