Energiewende In Germany
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The ''Energiewende'' (; ) is the ongoing transition by
Germany Germany,, officially the Federal Republic of Germany, is a country in Central Europe. It is the second most populous country in Europe after Russia, and the most populous member state of the European Union. Germany is situated betwe ...
to a
low carbon A low-carbon economy (LCE) or decarbonised economy is an economy based on energy sources that produce low levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions due to human activity are the dominant cause of observed climate change since the mi ...
, environmentally sound, reliable, and affordable energy supply. The new system intends to rely heavily on
renewable energy Renewable energy is energy that is collected from renewable resources that are naturally replenished on a human timescale. It includes sources such as sunlight, wind, the movement of water, and geothermal heat. Although most renewable energy ...
(particularly
wind Wind is the natural movement of air or other gases relative to a planet's surface. Winds occur on a range of scales, from thunderstorm flows lasting tens of minutes, to local breezes generated by heating of land surfaces and lasting a few hou ...
,
photovoltaics Photovoltaics (PV) is the conversion of light into electricity using semiconducting materials that exhibit the photovoltaic effect, a phenomenon studied in physics, photochemistry, and electrochemistry. The photovoltaic effect is commercially us ...
, and
hydroelectricity Hydroelectricity, or hydroelectric power, is Electricity generation, electricity generated from hydropower (water power). Hydropower supplies one sixth of the world's electricity, almost 4500 TWh in 2020, which is more than all other Renewabl ...
),
energy efficiency Energy efficiency may refer to: * Energy efficiency (physics), the ratio between the useful output and input of an energy conversion process ** Electrical efficiency, useful power output per electrical power consumed ** Mechanical efficiency, a ra ...
, and
energy demand management Energy demand management, also known as demand-side management (DSM) or demand-side response (DSR), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as financial incentives and behavioral change through education. Us ...
. The last nuclear power plant will shut down in 2022; all existing coal-fired generation will be retired by 2038. Legislative support for the ''Energiewende'' was passed in late 2010 and included
greenhouse gas A greenhouse gas (GHG or GhG) is a gas that Absorption (electromagnetic radiation), absorbs and Emission (electromagnetic radiation), emits radiant energy within the thermal infrared range, causing the greenhouse effect. The primary greenhouse ...
(GHG) reductions of 80–95% by 2050 (relative to 1990) and a
renewable energy Renewable energy is energy that is collected from renewable resources that are naturally replenished on a human timescale. It includes sources such as sunlight, wind, the movement of water, and geothermal heat. Although most renewable energy ...
target of 60% by 2050. Germany has already made significant progress on its GHG
emissions reduction Air pollution is the contamination of air due to the presence of substances in the atmosphere that are harmful to the health of humans and other living beings, or cause damage to the climate or to materials. There are many different types ...
target prior to the introduction of the program, achieving a 27% decrease between 1990 and 2014. However the country would need to maintain an average GHG emissions abatement rate of 3.5% per year to reach its ''Energiewende'' goal, equal to the maximum historical value thus far. A controversial part of the program was the phasing out of Germany's
nuclear reactor A nuclear reactor is a device used to initiate and control a fission nuclear chain reaction or nuclear fusion reactions. Nuclear reactors are used at nuclear power plants for electricity generation and in nuclear marine propulsion. Heat from nu ...
s, to be complete by 2022, with the aim of reaching a 100% renewable energy system. This process is mostly completed, with three reactors remaining connected to the grid (as of January 2022). Germany's overall
energy mix The energy mix is a group of different primary energy sources from which secondary energy for direct use - such as electricity - is produced. Energy mix refers to all direct uses of energy, such as transportation and housing, and should not be c ...
still has high intensity due to large share of coal and fossil gas.


Etymology

The term ''Energiewende'' is regularly used in
English language English is a West Germanic language of the Indo-European language family, with its earliest forms spoken by the inhabitants of early medieval England. It is named after the Angles, one of the ancient Germanic peoples that migrated to the is ...
publications without being translated (a
loanword A loanword (also loan word or loan-word) is a word at least partly assimilated from one language (the donor language) into another language. This is in contrast to cognates, which are words in two or more languages that are similar because th ...
). The term ''Energiewende'' was first contained in the title of a 1980 publication by the German
Öko-Institut The Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology) (sometimes spelled Oeko-Institut) is a non-profit, private-sector environmental research institute with its head office in Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany Germany,, officially the Fed ...
, calling for the complete abandonment of nuclear and petroleum energy. In support of the claim that Krause et al. (1980) was the first use of the term ''Energiewende''. The most groundbreaking claim was that economic growth was possible without increased energy consumption. On 16February 1980, the German Federal Ministry of the Environment also hosted a symposium in Berlin, called ''Energiewende – Atomausstieg und Klimaschutz'' (Energy Transition: Nuclear Phase-Out and Climate Protection). The Öko-Institut was funded by both environmental and religious organizations, and the importance of religious and conservative figures like and Peter Ahmels was crucial. In the following decades, the term ''Energiewende'' expanded in scope – in its present form it dates back to at least 2002. ''Energiewende'' designated a significant change in
energy policy Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contri ...
. The term encompassed a reorientation of policy from demand to supply and a shift from centralized to distributed generation (for example, producing heat and power in small cogeneration units), which should replace overproduction and avoidable energy consumption with energy-saving measures and increased efficiency. In a broader sense, this transition also entailed a
democratization Democratization, or democratisation, is the transition to a more democratic political regime, including substantive political changes moving in a democratic direction. It may be a hybrid regime in transition from an authoritarian regime to a ful ...
of energy. In the traditional energy industry, a few large companies with large centralized power stations were perceived as dominating the market as an oligopoly and consequently amassing a worrisome level of both economic and political power. Renewable energies, in contrast, can, in theory, be established in a decentralized manner. Public wind farms and solar parks can involve many citizens directly in energy production. Photovoltaic systems can even be set up by individuals. Municipal utilities can also benefit citizens financially, while the conventional energy industry profits a relatively small number of shareholders. Also significant, the decentralized structure of renewable energies enables creation of value locally and minimizes capital outflows from a region. Renewable energy sources therefore play an increasingly important role in municipal energy policy, and local governments often promote them.


Status

The key policy document outlining the ''Energiewende'' was published by the German government in September 2010, some six months before the
Fukushima nuclear accident The was a nuclear accident in 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Ōkuma, Fukushima, Japan. The proximate cause of the disaster was the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which occurred on the afternoon of 11 March 2011 an ...
. Legislative support was passed in September 2010. On 6 June 2011, following Fukushima, the government removed the use of nuclear power as a bridging technology as part of their policy. The program was later described as "Germany's vendetta against nuclear" and attributed to the growing influence of ideologically anti-nuclear green movements in mainstream politics. In 2014, then- Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy
Sigmar Gabriel Sigmar Hartmut Gabriel (born 12 September 1959) is a German politician who was the Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2018 and the vice-chancellor of Germany from 2013 to 2018. He was Leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germa ...
lobbied Swedish company
Vattenfall Vattenfall is a Swedish multinational power company owned by the Swedish State. Beyond Sweden, the company generates power in Denmark, Finland, Germany, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. The company's name is Swedish for "waterfall", and ...
to continue investments in brown coal mines in Germany, explaining that "we cannot simultaneously quit nuclear energy and coal-based power generation". A similar statement by Gabriel was recalled by
James Hansen James Edward Hansen (born March 29, 1942) is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1 ...
in his 2009 book " Storms of my grandchildren" — Gabriel argued that "coal use was essential because Germany was going to phase out nuclear power. Period. It was a political decision and it was non-negotiable". In 2011, the Ethical Committee on Secure Energy Supply was tasked with performing an assessment of feasibility of the nuclear phase-out and transition to renewable energy, and it concluded: In 2019, Germany's Federal Court of Auditors determined the program had cost €160 billion over the last 5 years and criticized the expenses for being "in extreme disproportion to the results". Despite widespread initial support, the program is perceived as "expensive, chaotic and unfair", and a "massive failure" as of 2019. Russian fossil gas has been perceived as a "safe, cheap an temporary" fuel to replace nuclear power in the initial phase of ''Energiewende'', as part of German policy of integrating Russia with European Union through mutually beneficial trade relations. German dependency on Russian gas imports was presented as "mutual dependency".


Initial phase 2013-2016

After the 2013 federal elections, the new CDU/
CSU CSU may refer to: * Channel service unit, a Wide area network equivalent of a network interface card * Chari Aviation Services, Chad, by ICAO airline code * Christian Social Union (UK), an Anglican social gospel organisation * Christian Social Un ...
and
SPD The Social Democratic Party of Germany (german: Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, ; SPD, ) is a centre-left social democratic political party in Germany. It is one of the major parties of contemporary Germany. Saskia Esken has been the ...
coalition government continued the ''Energiewende'', with only minor modification of its goals in the coalition agreement. An intermediate target was introduced of a 55–60% share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption in 2035. These targets were described as "ambitious". The Berlin-based
policy institute A think tank, or policy institute, is a research institute that performs research and advocacy concerning topics such as social policy, political strategy, economics, military, technology, and culture. Most think tanks are non-governmental ...
Agora Energiewende Agora Energiewende is a think tank supporting the ''Energiewende'' in Germany. It is funded by and the European Climate Foundation. Its members debate under the Chatham House Rule and include Klaus Töpfer, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Claude Turmes. ...
noted that "while the German approach is not unique worldwide, the speed and scope of the ''Energiewende'' are exceptional". A particular characteristic of the ''Energiewende'' compared to other planned energy transition was the expectation that the transition is driven by citizens and not large energy utilities. Germany's switch to renewables was described as "democratization of the energy supply". The ''Energiewende'' also sought a greater transparency in relation to national
energy policy Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contri ...
formation. As of 2013, Germany was spending €1.5 billion per year on energy research in an effort to solve the technical and social issues raised by the transition, which are provided by the individual federal states, universities and the government, which provided €400 million per year. The government's contribution was increased to €800 million in 2017. Important aspects included (): In addition, there was be an associated
research and development Research and development (R&D or R+D), known in Europe as research and technological development (RTD), is the set of innovative activities undertaken by corporations or governments in developing new services or products, and improving existi ...
drive. A chart showing German energy
legislation Legislation is the process or result of enrolled bill, enrolling, enactment of a bill, enacting, or promulgation, promulgating laws by a legislature, parliament, or analogous Government, governing body. Before an item of legislation becomes law i ...
in 2016 is available. These targets went well beyond
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
legislation and the national policies of other European states. The policy objectives have been embraced by the German federal government and has resulted in a huge expansion of renewables, particularly wind power. Germany's share of renewables has increased from around 5% in 1999 to 22.9% in 2012, surpassing the
OECD The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD; french: Organisation de coopération et de développement économiques, ''OCDE'') is an intergovernmental organisation with 38 member countries, founded in 1961 to stimulate e ...
average of 18% usage of renewables. Producers have been guaranteed a fixed
feed-in tariff A feed-in tariff (FIT, FiT, standard offer contract,Couture, T., Cory, K., Kreycik, C., Williams, E., (2010)Policymaker's Guide to Feed-in Tariff Policy Design National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy advanced renewable tariff, ...
for 20 years, guaranteeing a fixed income. Energy co-operatives have been created, and efforts were made to decentralize control and profits. However, in some cases poor investment designs have caused bankruptcies and low
returns Return may refer to: In business, economics, and finance * Return on investment (ROI), the financial gain after an expense. * Rate of return, the financial term for the profit or loss derived from an investment * Tax return, a blank document or t ...
, and unrealistic promises have been shown to be far from reality. Nuclear power plants were closed, and the existing nine plants were scheduled to close earlier than planned, in 2022. One factor that has inhibited efficient employment of new renewable energy has been the lack of an accompanying investment in power infrastructure to bring the power to market. It is believed 8,300 km of power lines must be built or upgraded. In 2010 legislation has been passed seeking construction and upgrade of 7'700 km of new grid lines, but only 950 km have been built by 2019 — and in 2017 only 30 km has been built. The different German States have varying attitudes to the construction of new power lines. Industry has had their rates frozen and so the increased costs of the ''Energiewende'' have been passed on to consumers, who have had rising electricity bills. Germans in 2013 had some of the highest electricity
price A price is the (usually not negative) quantity of payment or compensation given by one party to another in return for goods or services. In some situations, the price of production has a different name. If the product is a "good" in the c ...
s (including taxes) in Europe. In comparison, its neighbors (Poland, Sweden, Denmark and nuclear-reliant France) have some of the lowest
cost In production, research, retail, and accounting, a cost is the value of money that has been used up to produce something or deliver a service, and hence is not available for use anymore. In business, the cost may be one of acquisition, in which ...
s (excluding taxes) in the EU.Electricity prices for industrial consumers
''
Eurostat Eurostat ('European Statistical Office'; DG ESTAT) is a Directorate-General of the European Commission located in the Kirchberg, Luxembourg, Kirchberg quarter of Luxembourg City, Luxembourg. Eurostat's main responsibilities are to provide statis ...
'', October 2015
On 1 August 2014, a revised Renewable Energy Sources Act entered into force. Specific deployment corridors stipulated the extent to which renewable energy is to be expanded in the future and the funding rates (
feed-in tariff A feed-in tariff (FIT, FiT, standard offer contract,Couture, T., Cory, K., Kreycik, C., Williams, E., (2010)Policymaker's Guide to Feed-in Tariff Policy Design National Renewable Energy Laboratory, U.S. Dept. of Energy advanced renewable tariff, ...
s) will no longer be fixed by the government, but will be determined by auction. Market redesign was perceived as a key part of the ''Energiewende''. The German
electricity market In a broad sense, an electricity market is a system that facilitates the exchange of electricity-related goods and services. During more than a century of evolution of the electric power industry, the economics of the electricity markets had un ...
needed to be reworked to suit. Among other things, wind and solar power cannot be principally refinanced under the current
marginal cost In economics, the marginal cost is the change in the total cost that arises when the quantity produced is incremented, the cost of producing additional quantity. In some contexts, it refers to an increment of one unit of output, and in others it r ...
based market.
Carbon pricing Carbon pricing (or pricing), also known as cap and trade (CAT) or emissions trading scheme (ETS), is a method for nations to reduce global warming. The cost is applied to greenhouse gas emissions in order to encourage polluters to reduce the co ...
is also central to the ''Energiewende'', and the
European Union Emissions Trading Scheme The European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is a "cap and trade" scheme where a limit is placed on the right to emit specified pollutants over an area and companies can trade emission rights within that area. It covers around 45% of th ...
(EU ETS) needs to be reformed to create a genuine
scarcity In economics, scarcity "refers to the basic fact of life that there exists only a finite amount of human and nonhuman resources which the best technical knowledge is capable of using to produce only limited maximum amounts of each economic good. ...
of certificates. The German federal government is calling for such reform. Most of the computer scenarios used to analyse the ''Energiewende'' rely on a substantial carbon price to drive the transition to low-carbon technologies. Coal-fired generation needs to be retired as part of the ''Energiewende''. Some argue for an explicit negotiated phase-out of coal plants, along the lines of the well-publicized nuclear phase-out, but as German minister of economy noted, "we cannot shut down both our nuclear and coal-fired power plants". Coal comprised 42% of electricity generation in 2015. If Germany is to limit its contribution to a global temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as declared in the 2015
Paris Agreement The Paris Agreement (french: Accord de Paris), often referred to as the Paris Accords or the Paris Climate Accords, is an international treaty on climate change. Adopted in 2015, the agreement covers climate change mitigation, Climate change a ...
, a complete phase-out of fossil fuels together with a shift to
100% renewable energy 100% renewable energy means getting all energy from renewable resources. The endeavor to use 100% renewable energy for electricity, heating, cooling and transport is motivated by climate change, pollution and other environmental issues, ...
is required by about 2040. The ''Energiewende'' is made up of various technical building blocks and assumptions.
Electricity storage Energy storage is the capture of energy produced at one time for use at a later time to reduce imbalances between energy demand and energy production. A device that stores energy is generally called an Accumulator (energy), accumulator or Batte ...
, while too expensive at the beginning of the program, was hoped to become a useful technology in the future. As of 2019 however as number of potential storage projects (power-to-gas, hydrogen storage and others) are still in prototype phase with losses up to 40% of the stored energy in the existing small scale installations.
Energy efficiency Energy efficiency may refer to: * Energy efficiency (physics), the ratio between the useful output and input of an energy conversion process ** Electrical efficiency, useful power output per electrical power consumed ** Mechanical efficiency, a ra ...
has a key but currently under-recognised role to play. Improved energy efficiency is one of Germany's official targets. Greater integration with adjoining national
electricity network An electrical grid is an interconnected network for electricity delivery from producers to consumers. Electrical grids vary in size and can cover whole countries or continents. It consists of:Kaplan, S. M. (2009). Smart Grid. Electrical Power ...
s can offer mutual benefits — indeed, systems with high shares of renewables can use geographical diversity to offset intermittency. Germany invested €1.5billion in energy research in 2013. Of that the German federal government spent €820million supporting projects ranging from basic research to applications. The federal government also foresees an export role for German expertise in the area. The social and political dimensions of the ''Energiewende'' have been subject to study. Strunz argues that the underlying technological, political and economic structures will need to change radically — a process he calls regime shift. Schmid, Knopf, and Pechan analyse the actors and institutions that will be decisive in the ''Energiewende'' and how latency in the national electricity
infrastructure Infrastructure is the set of facilities and systems that serve a country, city, or other area, and encompasses the services and facilities necessary for its economy, households and firms to function. Infrastructure is composed of public and priv ...
may restrict progress. On 3 December 2014, the German federal government released its National Action Plan on Energy Efficiency (NAPE) in order to improve the uptake of energy efficiency. The areas covered are the energy efficiency of buildings, energy conservation for companies, consumer energy efficiency, and transport energy efficiency. German industry is expected to make a sizeable contribution. An official federal government report on progress under the ''Energiewende'', updated for 2014, notes that: * energy consumption fell by 4.7% in 2014 (from 2013) and at petajoules reached it lowest level since 1990 * renewable generation is the number-one source of electricity * energy efficiency increased by an average annual 1.6% between 2008 and 2014 * final energy consumption in the transport sector was 1.7% higher in 2014 than in 2005 * for the first time in more than ten years, electricity prices for household customers fell at the beginning of 2015 A commentary on the progress report expands on many of the issues raised.


Slowdown from 2016

Slow progress on transmission network reinforcement has led to a deferment of new windfarms in northern Germany. The German cabinet earlier approved costly underground cabling in October 2015 in a bid to dispel local resistance against above-ground pylons and to speed up the expansion process. Analysis by Agora Energiewende in late-2016 suggests that Germany will probably miss several of its key ''Energiewende'' targets, despite recent reforms to the Renewable Energy Sources Act and the wholesale electricity market. The goal to cut emissions by 40% by 2020 "will most likely be missed... if no further measures are taken" and the 55–60% share of renewable energy in gross electricity consumption by 2035 is "unachievable" with the current plans for renewables expansion. In November 2016, Agora Energiewende reported on the impact of the new and several other related new laws. It concludes that this new legislation will bring "fundamental changes" for large sections of the energy industry, but have limited effect on the economy and on consumers. The 2016
Climate Action Plan Climate is the long-term weather pattern in an area, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorologic ...
for Germany, adopted on 14November 2016, introduced sector targets for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This document is not an extract translated from the official plan. The goal for the energy sector is shown in the
table Table may refer to: * Table (furniture), a piece of furniture with a flat surface and one or more legs * Table (landform), a flat area of land * Table (information), a data arrangement with rows and columns * Table (database), how the table data ...
. The plan states that the energy supply must be "almost completely decarbonised" by 2050, with renewables as its main source. For the electricity sector, "in the long-term, electricity generation must be based almost entirely on renewable energies" and "the share of wind and solar power in total electricity production will rise significantly". Notwithstanding, during the transition, "less carbon-intensive natural gas power plants and the existing most modern coal power plants play an important role as interim technologies". The fifth monitoring report on the ''Energiewende'' for 2015 was published in December 2016. The expert commission which wrote the report warns that Germany will probably miss its 2020 climate targets and believes that this could threaten the credibility of the entire endeavor. The commission puts forward a number of measures to address the slowdown, including a flat national CO2 price imposed across all sectors, a greater focus on transport, and full market exposure for renewable generation. Regarding the carbon price, the commission thinks that a reformed EUETS would be better, but that achieving agreement across Europe is unlikely.


After 2017

Since 2017, it had become clear that the ''Energiewende'' was not progressing at the anticipated speed, with the country's
climate policy The politics of climate change results from different perspectives on how to respond to climate change. Global warming is driven largely by the emissions of greenhouse gases due to human economic activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, ...
regarded as "lackluster" and the energy transition "stalling." High
electricity prices Electricity pricing (also referred to as electricity tariffs or the price of electricity) can vary widely by country or by locality within a country. Electricity prices are dependent on many factors, such as the price of power generation, gover ...
, growing resistance against the use of wind turbines over their environmental and potential health impacts, and regulatory hurdles, have been identified as causes for this. As of 2017 Germany imported more than half of its energy. A 2018 European Commission case study report on the ''Energiewende'' noted 27% decrease in emissions against the 1990 levels with a slight increase over the few preceding years and concluded achieving of the intended 40% reduction target by 2020 in unfeasible, primarily due to the "simultaneous nuclear phase-out and increased energy consumption". Also 50% increase of electricity prices was observed (compared to base 2007 prices). Germany's energy sector remains the largest single source of emissions, contributing over 40%. In 2018 the slow-down of deployment of new renewable energy was partially attributed to high demand for land, which has been highlighted as a potential "downside" by a WWF report. In March 2019, Chancellor Merkel formed a so-called climate cabinet to find a consensus on new emissions reduction measures to meet 2030 targets. The result was the Climate Action Program 2030, which Berlin adopted on 9 October 2019. The Program contains plans for a carbon pricing system for the heating and transportation sectors, which are not covered by the EU ETS. It also includes tax- and other incentives to encourage energy-efficient building renovations, higher EV subsidies, and more public transport investments. The IEA report concludes that " e package represents a clear step in the right direction towards Germany meeting its 2030 targets." The German Coal Commission, composed of 28 industrial, environmental, and regional organizations, voted on the coal phase-out date. Ultimately, 27 members voted in favor of 2038 coal phase-out date, with only one regional organization from
Lusatia Lusatia (german: Lausitz, pl, Łużyce, hsb, Łužica, dsb, Łužyca, cs, Lužice, la, Lusatia, rarely also referred to as Sorbia) is a historical region in Central Europe, split between Germany and Poland. Lusatia stretches from the Bóbr ...
voting against, and
Greenpeace Greenpeace is an independent global campaigning network, founded in Canada in 1971 by Irving Stowe and Dorothy Stowe, immigrant environmental activists from the United States. Greenpeace states its goal is to "ensure the ability of the Earth t ...
voting in favor and later releasing a non-binding "dissenting opinion". As result of phasing out nuclear power and, in long term, coal, Germany declared increased reliance on
fossil gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon di ...
. A similar statement was voiced by SPD MP
Udo Bullmann Udo Bullmann (born 8 June 1956) is a German politician who has been serving as a member of the European Parliament since 1999. He is a member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), part of the Party of European Socialists. Personal lif ...
who explained that Germany has to stick with fossil fuels as it's trying to replace both coal and nuclear "at the same time", while countries that rely on nuclear power have "easier task replacing fossil fuels". In 2020
Agora Energiewende Agora Energiewende is a think tank supporting the ''Energiewende'' in Germany. It is funded by and the European Climate Foundation. Its members debate under the Chatham House Rule and include Klaus Töpfer, Ottmar Edenhofer, and Claude Turmes. ...
also declared a number of new fossil gas plants will be also required to "guarantee supply security as Germany relies more and more on intermittent renewable electricity". In January 2019 Germany's Economy Minister
Peter Altmaier Peter Altmaier (born 18 June 1958) is a German lawyer and CDU politician who served as Acting Minister of Finance from 2017 to 2018 and as Federal Minister for Economic Affairs and Energy from 2018 to 2021. He previously served as Federal Mi ...
he doesn't want to import "cheap nuclear power" from other countries to compensate for planned phase-out of coal. In 2021
Green Green is the color between cyan and yellow on the visible spectrum. It is evoked by light which has a dominant wavelength of roughly 495570 Nanometre, nm. In subtractive color systems, used in painting and color printing, it is created by ...
MEP
Sven Giegold Sven (in Danish and Norwegian, also Svend and also in Norwegian most commonly Svein) is a Scandinavian first name which is also used in the Low Countries and German-speaking countries. The name itself is Old Norse for "young man" or "young warri ...
admitted that Germany may require new fossil gas power plants in order to "stabilise the more fluctuating power supply of renewables". The 2020 climate goals were successful in the following areas: * closure of nuclear plants * increasing renewable energy share * reducing greenhouse gas emissions The following climate goals however failed: * increasing renewable energy share in the transport sector * reducing primary energy consumption * final energy productivity. In 2020 a number of previously shut down
fossil gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon di ...
plants ( Irsching units 4 and 5) were restarted due to "heavy fluctuations of level of power generated from the wind and sun" and a new
fossil gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon di ...
power plant was announced by RWE near the former
Biblis nuclear power plant __NOTOC__ The Biblis Nuclear Power Plant is in the South Hessian municipality of Biblis and consists of two units: unit A with a gross output of 1200 megawatts and unit B with a gross output of 1300 megawatts. Both units are pressurized water r ...
shut down in 2017. The project is declared as part of "decarbonization plan" where renewable energy capacity is accompanied by fossil gas plants to cover for intermittency. In 2020 a new coal power plant unit,
Datteln Datteln is a town in the Recklinghausen (district), district of Recklinghausen, in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. It is situated on a crossroads of four canals (Datteln-Hamm Canal, Wesel-Datteln Canal, Dortmund-Ems Canal and Rhein-Herne Canal), ...
4, was also connected to the grid. A new fossil gas power plant will be also opened from 2023 in
Leipheim Leipheim is a town in the district of Günzburg, in Bavaria, Germany. It is situated on the Danube, west of Günzburg, and northeast of Ulm. The village Riedheim and the hamlet Weissingen are districts of Leipheim. Since 1993, Leipheim has bee ...
,
Bavaria Bavaria ( ; ), officially the Free State of Bavaria (german: Freistaat Bayern, link=no ), is a state in the south-east of Germany. With an area of , Bavaria is the largest German state by land area, comprising roughly a fifth of the total lan ...
to compensate for loss of power caused by "nuclear exit" in this region. In 2021, the planned decommissioning of Heyden 4 coal power plant was cancelled and the plant remains online to compensate for shutdown of the Grohnde nuclear power station. In 2022, another coal power plant was restarted in Schongau for the same reasons. In June 2021 professor André Thess from Stuttgart university published an open letter accusing
Klaus Töpfer Klaus Töpfer (born 29 July 1938) is a German politician ( CDU) and environmental politics expert. From 1998 to 2006 he was executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Early life and education Töpfer was born in ...
and Matthias Kleiner, the authors of the 2011 Ethical Committee for Secure Energy Supply report that served as the scientific background of the "nuclear exit" decision, of disregarding the basic rules of scientific independence. The analysis promised that phase-out of nuclear energy and full transition to renewables "can be completed within a decade". Thess highlighted that the authors lacked the expertise necessary to properly understand and "balance between the risk of more rapid climate change without nuclear energy and the risk of slower climate change with nuclear energy". High average amounts of wind in 2019 and 2020 were presented in Germany as a success of the renewables, but when the amount of wind was low for the first half of 2021, use of coal rose by 21% as compared to the previous years. In the first half of 2021 coal, gas and nuclear power delivered 56% of overall electricity in Germany, with proportionally higher intensity due high inputs from coal and fossil gas. According to another analysis by Oekomoderne, in 2021 Germany produced nearly 260 TWh of electricity from coal in the first half of 2021, making it the single largest source of energy in that period — as it used "one billion tons" of coal. This situation once again raised questions about the future of weather-dependent electricity system that is also highly dependent on fossil sources for stability and its contradiction with the initial objectives of decarbonization. Projections Report published in 2021 predicted that Germany will miss its 2030 target by 16 percentage points (49% reduction vs 65% planned) and the 2040 target by 21 percentage points (67% vs 88% planned). Reduction of emissions in other sectors of the economy is also expected to miss the original targets. In October 2021 over 20 climate scientists and activists signed an open letter to the German government to reconsider the nuclear exit as it will lead to emissions of extra 60 millions of tons of each year and hinder decarbonization efforts even further. The new coalition formed after the
2021 elections Many elections occurred in 2021. The National Democratic Institute maintains calendar of elections around the world * 2021 United Nations Security Council election * 2021 national electoral calendar * 2021 local electoral calendar Africa * 2021 ...
proposed earlier phase-out of coal and internal combustion cars by 2035, 65% energy generated from renewables by 2030 and 80% by 2040. In addition, 2% of land surface is to be set aside for on-shore wind power, and off-shore wind capacity is to be increased to 75 GW. Fossil gas role was reinforced as "indispensable" transition fuel with low-carbon nuclear power imported from France to ensure stability of supplies. By end of 2021, the single largest source of electricity in Germany was coal (9.5% hard and 20.2% brown), increase of 20% compared to 2020 due to significant drop in wind (-14.5%) and solar (-5%) power output in that year. Solar power only produced 9.9% electricity, while nuclear power produced 13% even as it was going through the process of decommissioning. In 2022 Agora Enegiewende warned that Germany has missed its 2020 emission targets and is likely going to miss the 2030 targets, and increase of total emissions after 2022 is likely. Previously celebrated 2020 record low emissions were described as one-off effect of favorable weather and lower demand due to COVID-19 pandemics. Nuclear phase-out, skyrocketing gas prices and low wind and solar output resulting in increased reliance on coal were also attributed to the increase in emissions. In January 2022 the new coalition government reiterated its opposition to the inclusion of
nuclear power Nuclear power is the use of nuclear reactions to produce electricity. Nuclear power can be obtained from nuclear fission, nuclear decay and nuclear fusion reactions. Presently, the vast majority of electricity from nuclear power is produced b ...
in the EU sustainable taxonomy, but also requested that fossil gas is instead included as a "transitional" fuel and carbon intensity thresholds for gas are relaxed. As the subsidies for gas were ultimately upheld, a number of new fossil gas plants plan to benefit from the subsidies, while expecting increased profits thanks to "rising wholesale electricity prices" as result of "the last nuclear power plants to be removed from the grid" at the same time. Following the
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides. It has caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. An ...
, Germany announced they would re-open 10 GW of coal power to allegedly "conserve
natural gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbo ...
" following the recent shortage in Europe. This led to a subsequent criticism of ''Energiewende's'' strategy, and how this impacted different countries in Europe.
Michael Kretschmer Michael Kretschmer (born 7 May 1975) is a German politician of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) who has been serving as Minister President of Saxony since 13 December 2017. Since 2022, he has been one of four deputy chairs of the CDU, under ...
(CDU) declared the ''Energiewende'' to be a failure, highlighting that renewable generation is insufficient and baseload capabilities have reached its limits. He called for nuclear power phase-out to be cancelled and remaining reactors restarted, until a new feasible strategy is created. From February 2022 there was a heated debate about pausing the nuclear phase-out and restarting still operational reactors in order to better cope with the
energy crisis An energy crisis or energy shortage is any significant bottleneck in the supply of energy resources to an economy. In literature, it often refers to one of the energy sources used at a certain time and place, in particular, those that supply n ...
caused by the
Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides. It has caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. An ...
. Also in August 2022 German counter-intelligence started an investigation into two high-ranked officials at German ministry of energy suspected of representing interests of Russia. In October 2022 Germany ministry of energy approved extension of RWE
brown coal Lignite, often referred to as brown coal, is a soft, brown, combustible, sedimentary rock formed from naturally compressed peat. It has a carbon content around 25–35%, and is considered the lowest rank of coal due to its relatively low heat ...
open pit mine Open-pit mining, also known as open-cast or open-cut mining and in larger contexts mega-mining, is a surface mining technique of extracting rock or minerals from the earth from an open-air pit, sometimes known as a borrow. This form of mining ...
in Lutzerath, claiming it's "necessary for energy security". In October 2022 the government also declared the still operational nuclear power plants will not be shut down by end of 2022, but will instead operate until 15 April to help cope with the electricity demand through the winter.


Criticism

The Energiewende has been criticized for the high costs, the early nuclear phase-out which increased carbon emissions, continuation or even increase in use of fossil fuels, risks to power supply stability and the
environmental damage of biomass Biomass is plant-based material used as a fuel for heat or electricity production. It can be in the form of wood, wood residues, energy crops, agricultural residues, and waste from industry, farms, and households. Some people use the terms biom ...
. German association of local utilities VKU said the strategy creates significant risks to the stability of power supply in case of "lengthy periods" of weather unsuitable for wind and solar generation since energy storage in Germany is "largely non-existent". In 2020 power production from fossil gas reached all-time high in Germany. After introduction of the original Renewable Energy Act in 2000, there was a focus on long term costs, while in later years this has shifted to a focus on short term costs and the "financial burden" of the ''Energiewende'' while ignoring environmental externalities of fossil fuels. Electricity prices for household customers in Germany have been generally increasing in the last decade. The renewable energy levy to finance green power investment is added to Germans' electricity unit price. The surcharge (22.1% in 2016) pays the state-guaranteed price for renewable energy to producers and is 6.35 cents per kWh in 2016. A comprehensive study, published in ''Energy Policy'' in 2013, reported that Germany's
nuclear power phase-out A nuclear power phase-out is the discontinuation of usage of nuclear power for energy production. Often initiated because of concerns about nuclear power, phase-outs usually include shutting down nuclear power plants and looking towards fossil ...
, to be complete by 2022, is contradictory to the goal of the climate portion of the program. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) a ...
(IPCC) recognizes nuclear as one of the lowest lifecycle emissions energy sources available, lower than even solar, and only bested (slightly) by wind. The US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) also cites nuclear as a very low lifecycle emissions source. In June 2019, an open letter to "the leadership and people of Germany", written by almost 100 Polish environmentalists and scientist, urged Germany to "reconsider the decision on the final decommissioning of fully functional nuclear power plants" for the benefit of the fight against global warming. German Economy and Energy Minister
Sigmar Gabriel Sigmar Hartmut Gabriel (born 12 September 1959) is a German politician who was the Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2017 to 2018 and the vice-chancellor of Germany from 2013 to 2018. He was Leader of the Social Democratic Party of Germa ...
admitted "For a country like Germany with a strong industrial base, exiting nuclear and coal-fired power generation at the same time would not be possible." Germany's emissions were escalating in 2012 and 2013 and it is planned to reopen some of the dirtiest brown coal mines that had previously been closed. Coal generated electricity increased to 45% in 2013, the highest level since 2007. Nonetheless, in 2014 carbon emissions had declined again. More renewable energy had been generated and a greater energy efficiency had been achieved. From 1999 to 2014 renewable energy production rose from 29 TWh to 161 TWh, while nuclear power fell from 180 to 97 TWh and coal power production fell from 291 to 265 TWh. However, between 2000 and 2014
fossil gas Natural gas (also called fossil gas or simply gas) is a naturally occurring mixture of gaseous hydrocarbons consisting primarily of methane in addition to various smaller amounts of other higher alkanes. Low levels of trace gases like carbon di ...
increased from 49.2 TWh to 61.1 TWh and by 2020 it had reached 95.0 TWh. As nuclear and coal power plants are being phased out, the government has begun to promote the use of fossil gas in order to bridge the gap between other
fossil fuel A fossil fuel is a hydrocarbon-containing material formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of dead plants and animals that is extracted and burned as a fuel. The main fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. Fossil fuels m ...
s and low-carbon energy sources. This move has been criticised by international observers, who argue that fossil fuel gas is "essentially
methane Methane ( , ) is a chemical compound with the chemical formula (one carbon atom bonded to four hydrogen atoms). It is a group-14 hydride, the simplest alkane, and the main constituent of natural gas. The relative abundance of methane on Eart ...
, which constitutes at least one-third of global warming and is leaking into the
atmosphere An atmosphere () is a layer of gas or layers of gases that envelop a planet, and is held in place by the gravity of the planetary body. A planet retains an atmosphere when the gravity is great and the temperature of the atmosphere is low. A s ...
all across the gas production and delivery chain." It is also a more potent greenhouse gas than carbon-dioxide. It is also feared that the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
, but particularly Germany, is making itself overly dependent on
Russia Russia (, , ), or the Russian Federation, is a List of transcontinental countries, transcontinental country spanning Eastern Europe and North Asia, Northern Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, largest country in the ...
for gas supplies via
Nord Stream 2 Nord Stream 2 (German-English mixed expression; german: Nord and en, Stream 2, literally 'North Stream2'; russian: Северный поток — 2) is a natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany running through the Baltic Sea, financed by ...
, thereby undermining its
energy security Energy security is the association between national security and the availability of natural resources for energy consumption. Access to (relatively) cheap energy has become essential to the functioning of modern economies. However, the uneven ...
. In light of the
2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine On 24 February 2022, in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which began in 2014. The invasion has resulted in tens of thousands of deaths on both sides. It has caused Europe's largest refugee crisis since World War II. An ...
the Nord Stream 2 project was first postponed indefinitely and ultimately cancelled. The
Scholz cabinet The Scholz cabinet (German: ''Kabinett Scholz'', ) is the current cabinet of Germany, led by Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The cabinet is composed of Scholz's Social Democratic Party, Alliance 90/The Greens and the Free Democratic Party, an a ...
has spent considerable efforts since February 2022 to find replacements for Russian fossil gas both in the near and the long term. Germany's electricity transmission network is currently inadequately developed, therefore lacking the capability of delivering offshore wind energy produced on the Northern coast to industrial regions in the country's South. The
transmission system operator File:Electricity grid simple- North America.svg, 380px, Simplified diagram of AC electricity grid from generation stations to consumers rect 2 243 235 438 Power station rect 276 317 412 556 Transformer rect 412 121 781 400 Electric power transmis ...
s are planning to build 4000 additional kilometers of
transmission lines In electrical engineering, a transmission line is a specialized cable or other structure designed to conduct electromagnetic waves in a contained manner. The term applies when the conductors are long enough that the wave nature of the transmis ...
until 2030. Slow reduction of emissions in Germany, especially in the energy sector, has been contrasted with France's successful
decarbonization Climate change mitigation is action to limit climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases or removing those gases from the atmosphere. The recent rise in global average temperature is mostly caused by emissions from fossil fuels bur ...
of its energy sector under the
Messmer plan Since the mid 1980s, the largest source of electricity in France is Nuclear power, with a generation of 379.5 TWh in 2019 and a total electricity production of . In 2018, the nuclear share was 71.67%, the highest percentage in the world. Sin ...
(from 1973) and the United Kingdom's carbon tax, which saw a drastic reduction of coal-powered energy from 88% in 1973 to below 1% in 2019. German federal audit office report published in March 2021 highlighted very high costs of Energiewende for the household users, where taxes and fees account for 50% of the bills, and the energy price is 43% higher than the EU average. It also noted predicted shortage of 4.5 GW between 2022 and 2025 as result of planned shutdown of nuclear power plants. A study found that if Germany had postponed the nuclear phase out and phased out coal first it could have saved 1,100 lives and €3 to €8 billion in social costs per year. The study concludes that policymakers would have to overestimate the risk or cost of a nuclear accident to conclude that the benefits of the phase-out exceed its social costs. An open letter by a number of climate scientists published in 2021 calls against the shut-down of the remaining nuclear reactors in Germany, that would lead to 5% increase in emissions from the electricity sector.


Biomass

Biomass Biomass is plant-based material used as a fuel for heat or electricity production. It can be in the form of wood, wood residues, energy crops, agricultural residues, and waste from industry, farms, and households. Some people use the terms bi ...
made up 7.0% of Germany's power generation mix in 2017. Biomass has the potential to be a
carbon-neutral Carbon neutrality is a state of net-zero carbon dioxide emissions. This can be achieved by balancing emissions of carbon dioxide with its removal (often through carbon offsetting) or by eliminating emissions from society (the transition to the "p ...
fuel because growing biomass absorbs carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and a portion of the carbon absorbed remains in the ground after harvest. However, using biomass as a fuel produces
air pollution Air pollution is the contamination of air due to the presence of substances in the atmosphere that are harmful to the health of humans and other living beings, or cause damage to the climate or to materials. There are many different types ...
in the form of
carbon monoxide Carbon monoxide (chemical formula CO) is a colorless, poisonous, odorless, tasteless, flammable gas that is slightly less dense than air. Carbon monoxide consists of one carbon atom and one oxygen atom connected by a triple bond. It is the simple ...
,
carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide (chemical formula ) is a chemical compound made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in the gas state at room temperature. In the air, carbon dioxide is transpar ...
, (nitrogen oxides), VOCs (
volatile organic compound Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are organic compounds that have a high vapour pressure at room temperature. High vapor pressure correlates with a low boiling point, which relates to the number of the sample's molecules in the surrounding air, a ...
s), particulates and other pollutants, although biomass produces less sulfur dioxide than coal. Between 2004 and 2011 policies lead to around 7000 km2 new maize-fields for biomass-energy by ploughing-up of at least 2700 km2 of permanent grassland. This released large amounts of climate active gases,
loss of biodiversity Biodiversity loss includes the worldwide extinction of different species, as well as the local reduction or loss of species in a certain habitat, resulting in a loss of biological diversity. The latter phenomenon can be temporary or permanent, de ...
and potential of groundwater recharge. There are also attempts to use biogas as partially renewable fuel with
Green Planet Energy Green Planet Energy (formerly named Greenpeace Energy) is a German electric utility in the form of a registered association. The stated goal of the cooperative is the provision of environmentally friendly energy to the electrical grid. As a foun ...
selling gas containing 10% of biogas, 1% hydrogen and 90% imported fossil gas.


Citizen support and participation

, citizen support for the ''Energiewende'' remained high, with surveys indicating that about 80–90% of the public are in favor. One reason for the high acceptance was the substantial participation of German citizens in the ''Energiewende'', as private households, land owners, or members of energy cooperatives (''Genossenschaft''). A 2016 survey showed that roughly one in two Germans would consider investing in community renewable energy projects. Manfred Fischedick, Director of the
Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (official German name: ) is a German research institution for sustainability research focusing on impacts and practical application. It explores and develops models, strategies and inst ...
has commented that "if people participate with their own money, for example in a wind or solar power plant in their area, they will also support he ''Energiewende''" A 2010 study shows the benefits to
municipalities A municipality is usually a single administrative division having corporate status and powers of self-government or jurisdiction as granted by national and regional laws to which it is subordinate. The term ''municipality'' may also mean the go ...
of community ownership of renewable generation in their locality. See also Institut für ökologische Wirtschaftsforschung. ] Estimates for 2012 suggested that almost half the renewable energy capacity in Germany was owned by citizens through energy cooperatives and private initiatives. More specifically, citizens accounted for nearly half of all installed biogas and solar capacity and half of the installed onshore wind capacity. According to a 2014 survey conducted by TNS Emnid for the German Renewable Energies Agency among 1015 respondents, 94 percent of the Germans supported the enforced expansion of Renewable Energies. More than two-thirds of the interviewees agreed to renewable power plants close to their homes. The share of total final energy from renewables was 11% in 2014. However, changes in energy policy, starting with the German Renewable Energy Sources Act#Renewable Energy Sources Act (2014), Renewable Energy Sources Act in 2014, have jeopardized the efforts of citizens to participate. The share of citizen-owned renewable energy has since dropped to 42.5% as of 2016. The Renewable Energy Sources Act provides compensation to wind turbine operators for every kilowatt-hour of electricity not produced if wind power surpasses peak grid capacity, while grid operators must splice electricity from renewable sources into the grid even in times of low or no demand for it. This can lead to a
negative price In economics, negative pricing can occur when demand for a product drops or supply increases to an extent that owners or suppliers are prepared to pay others to accept it, in effect setting the price to a negative number. This can happen because i ...
of electricity, and grid operators may pass associated costs on to customers, estimated to be costing them an extra €4 billion in 2020. This has resulted in greater resistance to certain ''Energiewende'' policies, specifically wind power. By 2019 Germany also saws a significant increase of organized opposition against on-shore wind farms, especially in
Bavaria Bavaria ( ; ), officially the Free State of Bavaria (german: Freistaat Bayern, link=no ), is a state in the south-east of Germany. With an area of , Bavaria is the largest German state by land area, comprising roughly a fifth of the total lan ...
and
Baden-Württemberg Baden-Württemberg (; ), commonly shortened to BW or BaWü, is a German state () in Southwest Germany, east of the Rhine, which forms the southern part of Germany's western border with France. With more than 11.07 million inhabitants across a ...
.


Computer studies

Much of the policy development for the ''Energiewende'' is underpinned by
computer models Computer simulation is the process of mathematical modelling, performed on a computer, which is designed to predict the behaviour of, or the outcome of, a real-world or physical system. The reliability of some mathematical models can be deter ...
, run mostly by universities and research institutes. The models are usually based on
scenario analysis Scenario planning, scenario thinking, scenario analysis, scenario prediction and the scenario method all describe a strategic planning method that some organizations use to make flexible long-term plans. It is in large part an adaptation and gener ...
and are used to investigate different assumptions regarding the stability, sustainability, cost, efficiency, and public acceptability of various sets of technologies. Some models cover the entire
energy sector The energy industry is the totality of all of the industries involved in the production and sale of energy, including fuel extraction, manufacturing, refining and distribution. Modern society consumes large amounts of fuel, and the energy indust ...
, while others are confined to
electricity generation Electricity generation is the process of generating electric power from sources of primary energy. For electric utility, utilities in the electric power industry, it is the stage prior to its Electricity delivery, delivery (Electric power transmi ...
and consumption. A 2016 book investigates the usefulness and limitations of energy scenarios and energy models within the context of the ''Energiewende''. A number of computer studies confirm the feasibility of the German electricity system being 100% renewable in 2050. Some investigate the prospect of the entire energy system (all energy carriers) being fully renewable too.


2009 WWF study

In 2009 WWF Germany published a quantitative study prepared by the
Öko-Institut The Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology) (sometimes spelled Oeko-Institut) is a non-profit, private-sector environmental research institute with its head office in Freiburg im Breisgau, Germany Germany,, officially the Fed ...
, Prognos, and Hans-Joachim Ziesing. The study presumes a 95% reduction in greenhouse gases by the year 2050 and covers all sectors. The study shows that the transformation from a high-carbon to a low-carbon economy is possible and affordable. It notes that by committing to this transformation path, Germany could become a model for other countries.


2011 German Advisory Council on the Environment study

A 2011 report from the (SRU) concludes that Germany can attain 100% renewable electricity generation by 2050. The
German Aerospace Center The German Aerospace Center (german: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., abbreviated DLR, literally ''German Center for Air- and Space-flight'') is the national center for aerospace, energy and transportation research of Germany ...
(DLR) REMix high-resolution energy model was used for the analysis. A range of scenarios were investigated and a cost-competitive transition with good security of supply is possible. The authors presume that the transmission network will continue to be reinforced and that cooperation with Norway and Sweden would allow their hydro generation to be used for storage. The transition does not require Germany's
nuclear phase-out A nuclear power phase-out is the discontinuation of usage of nuclear power for energy production. Often initiated because of concerns about nuclear power, phase-outs usually include shutting down nuclear power plants and looking towards fossi ...
(') to be extended nor the construction of coal-fired plants with
carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and sequestration is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) before it enters the atmosphere, transporting it, and storing it (carbon sequestration) for centuries or millennia. Usually th ...
(CCS). Conventional generation assets need not be stranded and an orderly transition should prevail. Stringent energy efficiency and energy saving programs can bring down the future costs of electricity.


2015 Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project study

The
Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) is a global consortium formed in October 2013 which researches methods to limit the rise of global temperature due to global warming to 2°C or less. The focus of the DDPP is on sustainable ...
(DDPP) aims to demonstrate how countries can transform their energy systems by 2050 in order to achieve a
low-carbon economy A low-carbon economy (LCE) or decarbonised economy is an economy based on energy sources that produce low levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions due to human activity are the dominant cause of observed climate change since the mi ...
. The 2015 German country report, produced in association with the
Wuppertal Institute The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy (official German name: ) is a German research institution for sustainability research focusing on impacts and practical application. It explores and develops models, strategies and ins ...
, examines the official target of reducing domestic GHG emissions by 80% to 95% by 2050 (compared with 1990). Decarbonization pathways for Germany are illustrated by means of three ambitious scenarios with energy-related emission reductions between 1990 and 2050 varying between 80% and more than 90%. Three strategies strongly contribute to GHG emission reduction: * energy efficiency improvements (in all sectors but especially in buildings) * increased use of domestic renewables (with a focus on electricity generation) * electrification and (in two of the scenarios also) use of renewable electricity-based synthetic fuels (especially in the transport and industry sector) In addition, some scenarios use controversially: * final energy demand reductions through behavioral changes (
modal shift A modal share (also called mode split, mode-share, or modal split) is the percentage of travelers using a particular type of transportation or number of trips using said type. In Intermodal freight transport, freight transportation, this may be me ...
in transport, changes in eating and heating habits) * net imports of electricity from renewable sources or of
bioenergy Biomass is plant-based material used as a fuel for heat or electricity production. It can be in the form of wood, wood residues, energy crops, agricultural residues, and waste from industry, farms, and households. Some people use the terms biom ...
* use of
carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and sequestration is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) before it enters the atmosphere, transporting it, and storing it (carbon sequestration) for centuries or millennia. Usually th ...
(CCS) technology to reduce industry sector GHG emissions (including cement production) Potential co-benefits for Germany include increased energy security, higher competitiveness of and global business opportunities for companies, job creation, stronger GDP growth, smaller energy bills for households, and less air pollution.


2015 Fraunhofer ISE study

Using the model REMod-D (Renewable Energy Model – Germany), this 2015
Fraunhofer ISE The Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE (or Fraunhofer ISE) is an institute of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft. Located in Freiburg, Germany, The Institute performs applied scientific and engineering research and development for all a ...
study investigates several system transformation scenarios and their related costs. The guiding question of the study is: how can a cost-optimised transformation of the German energy system — with consideration of all
energy carrier An energy carrier is a substance (fuel) or sometimes a phenomenon (energy system) that contains energy that can be later converted to other forms such as mechanical work or heat or to operate chemical or physical processes. Such carriers includ ...
s and consumer sectors — be achieved while meeting the declared
climate protection Climate change mitigation is action to limit climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases or removing those gases from the atmosphere. The recent rise in global average temperature is mostly caused by emissions from fossil fuels b ...
targets and ensuring a secure energy supply at all times.
Carbon capture and storage Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and sequestration is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) before it enters the atmosphere, transporting it, and storing it (carbon sequestration) for centuries or millennia. Usually th ...
(CCS) is explicitly excluded from the scenarios. A future energy scenario emitting 85% less emissions than 1990 levels is compared with a reference scenario, which assumes that the German energy system operates in 2050 the same way as it does today. Under this comparison, primary energy supply drops 42%. The total cumulative costs depend on the future prices for carbon and oil. If the penalty for emissions increases to €100/tonne by 2030 and thereafter remains constant and fossil fuel prices increase annually by 2%, then the total cumulative costs of today's energy system are 8% higher than the costs required for the minus 85% scenario up to 2050. The report also notes:


2015 DIW study

A 2015 study uses DIETER or Dispatch and Investment Evaluation Tool with Endogenous Renewables, developed by the
German Institute for Economic Research The German Institute for Economic Research (german: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung), or, more commonly DIWBerlin, is a economic research institute in Germany, involved in basic research and policy advice. It is a non-profit acad ...
(DIW), Berlin, Germany. The study examines the power storage requirements for renewables uptake ranging from 60% to 100%. Under the baseline scenario of 80% (the German government target for 2050),
grid storage Grid energy storage (also called large-scale energy storage) is a collection of methods used for energy storage on a large scale within an electrical power grid. Electrical energy is stored during times when electricity is plentiful and inexpe ...
requirements remain moderate and other options on both the supply side and demand side offer flexibility at low cost. Nonetheless, storage plays an important role in the provision of reserves. Storage becomes more pronounced under higher shares of renewables, but strongly depends on the costs and availability of other flexibility options, particularly on biomass availability. The model is fully described in the study report.


2016 acatech study

A 2016
acatech Acatech (styled ''acatech),'' founded in 2002 and established as the German Academy of Science and Engineering (german: Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften) on 1 January 2008, represents the interests of German technical sciences independe ...
-lead study focused on so-called flexibility technologies used to balance the fluctuations inherent in power generation from wind and photovoltaics. Set in 2050, several scenarios use gas power plants to stabilise the backbone of energy system, ensuring supply security during several weeks of low wind and solar radiation. Other scenarios investigate a 100% renewable system and show these to be possible but more costly. Flexible consumption and storage control ( demand-side management) in households and the industrial sector is the most cost-efficient means of balancing short-term power fluctuations. Long-term storage systems, based on
power-to-X Power-to-X (also P2X and P2Y and P2Z) is a number of electricity energy transformation, conversion, energy storage, and reconversion pathways that use surplus electric power, typically during periods where fluctuating renewable energy generation ...
, are only viable if carbon emissions are to be reduced by more than 80%. On the question of costs, the study notes:


2016 Stanford University study

The Atmosphere/Energy Program at
Stanford University Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...
has developed roadmaps for 139 countries to achieve energy systems powered only by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) by 2050. Direct URL
xlsx-spreadsheets
In the case of Germany, total end-use energy drops from 375.8 GW for business-as-usual to 260.9 GW under a fully renewable transition. Load shares in 2050 would be: on-shore wind 35%, off-shore wind 17%, wave 0.08%, geothermal 0.01%, hydro-electric 0.87%, tidal 0%, residential PV 6.75%, commercial PV 6.48%, utility PV 33.8%, and
concentrating solar power Concentrated solar power (CSP, also known as concentrating solar power, concentrated solar thermal) systems generate solar power by using mirrors or lenses to concentrate a large area of sunlight into a receiver. Electricity is generated when ...
0%. The study also assess avoided air pollution, eliminated global climate change costs, and net job creation. These co-benefits are substantial.


See also

*
Bundesnetzagentur The Federal Network Agency (german: Bundesnetzagentur or ) is the German regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, post and railway markets. It is a federal agency of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Acti ...
*
Electricity sector in Germany Germany's electrical grid is part of the Synchronous grid of Continental Europe. In 2020, due to COVID-19 conditions and strong winds, Germany produced 484 TW⋅h of electricity of which over 50% was from renewable energy sources, 24% fr ...
* Energieeinsparverordnung – German building energy regulations *
Energy in Germany Germany predominantly sources its energy from fossil fuels, followed by wind, nuclear power, solar, biomass (wood and biofuels) and hydro. The German economy is large and developed, ranking fourth in the world by nominal GDP. Germany is s ...
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Energy modeling Energy modeling or energy system modeling is the process of building computer models of energy systems in order to analyze them. Such models often employ scenario analysis to investigate different assumptions about the technical and economic c ...
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Federal Network Agency The Federal Network Agency (german: Bundesnetzagentur or ) is the German regulatory office for electricity, gas, telecommunications, post and railway markets. It is a federal agency of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Acti ...
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Fossil fuel phase-out Fossil fuel phase-out is the gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels to zero. It is part of the ongoing renewable energy transition. Current efforts in fossil fuel phase-out involve replacing fossil fuels with sustainab ...
* The Fourth Revolution: Energy *
German Renewable Energy Act The Renewable Energy Sources Act or EEG (german: Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz) is a series of German laws that originally provided a feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme to encourage the generation of renewable electricity. The specified the transiti ...
* German Solar Industry Association * Germany National Renewable Energy Action Plan *
KfW IPEX-Bank The KfW IPEX-Bank GmbH is a wholly owned subsidiary of KfW (''Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau''; engl. credit institute for reconstruction) and since 1 January 2008 acts as a legally independent bank governed by the German Banking Act. Its work foc ...
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List of countries by renewable electricity production This article is a list of countries and territories by electricity generation from renewable sources every year. Note that most countries import and/or export electricity, so the percentage figure do not reflect the percentage of consumption that ...
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Low-carbon economy A low-carbon economy (LCE) or decarbonised economy is an economy based on energy sources that produce low levels of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. GHG emissions due to human activity are the dominant cause of observed climate change since the mi ...
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Passivhaus "Passive house" (german: Passivhaus) is a voluntary standard for energy efficiency in a building, which reduces the building's ecological footprint. It results in ultra-low energy buildings that require little energy for space heating or coo ...
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Renewable energy commercialization Renewable energy commercialization involves the deployment of three generations of renewable energy technologies dating back more than 100 years. First-generation technologies, which are already mature and economically competitive, include b ...
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Renewable energy in Germany Renewable energy in Germany is mainly based on wind and biomass, plus solar and hydro. Germany had the world's largest photovoltaic installed capacity until 2014, and as of 2021 it has over 58 GW. It is also the world's third country by instal ...
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Renewable energy in the European Union Renewable energy plays an important and growing role in the energy system of the European Union. The Europe 2020 strategy included a target of reaching 20% of gross final energy consumption from renewable sources by 2020, and at least 32% by 203 ...
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Soft energy path In 1976, energy policy analyst Amory Lovins coined the term soft energy path to describe an alternative future where energy efficiency and appropriate renewable energy sources steadily replace a centralized energy system based on fossil and nuclea ...
* Wildpoldsried *
Greenpeace Energy Green Planet Energy (formerly named Greenpeace Energy) is a German electric utility in the form of a registered association. The stated goal of the cooperative is the provision of environmentally friendly energy to the electrical grid. As a foun ...


References


Further reading


Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and Affordable Energy Supply
28 September 2010 (English translation of the German policy document) * *


External links


Clean Energy Wire (CLEW)
– a news service covering the energy transition in Germany

– hosted by the
Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy The Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (german: Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Klimaschutz, ), abbreviated BMWK (was BMWi), is a cabinet-level ministry of the Federal Republic of Germany. It was previously known as ...
(BMWi)
German Energy Blog
– a legal blog covering the ''Energiewende''
German Energy Transition
– a comprehensive website maintained by the
Heinrich Böll Foundation The Heinrich Böll Foundation (german: Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung e.V., HBS) is a German, legally independent political foundation. Affiliated with the German Green Party, it was founded in 1997 when three predecessors merged. The foundation was n ...

Presentation
(30:47) by
Amory Lovins Amory Bloch Lovins (born November 13, 1947) is an American writer, physicist, and former chairman/chief scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute. He has written on energy policy and related areas for four decades, and served on the US Nationa ...
to th
Berlin Energy Transition Dialogue 2016
17–18 March 2016
Strom-Report.de
– a statistics website covering renewable energy topics as well as the energy transition in Germany {{DEFAULTSORT:Energiewende in Germany Emissions reduction Climate change in Germany Energy in Germany Transition Renewable energy commercialization Renewable energy in Germany