El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that emerges from variation in

winds Wind is the natural movement of atmosphere of Earth, air or other gases relative to a planetary surface, planet's surface. Winds occur on a range of scales, from thunderstorm flows lasting tens of minutes, to local breezes generated by heatin ...

and

sea surface temperature Sea surface temperature (or ocean surface temperature) is the ocean temperature, temperature of ocean water close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies in the literature and in practice. It is usually between and below the sea ...

s over the tropical

Pacific Ocean The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five Borders of the oceans, oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean, or, depending on the definition, to Antarctica in the south, and is ...

. Those variations have an irregular pattern but do have some semblance of cycles. The occurrence of ENSO is not predictable. It affects the climate of much of the

tropics The tropics are the regions of Earth surrounding the equator, where the sun may shine directly overhead. This contrasts with the temperate or polar regions of Earth, where the Sun can never be directly overhead. This is because of Earth's ax ...

and

subtropics The subtropical zones or subtropics are geographical and climate zones immediately to the north and south of the tropics. Geographically part of the temperate zones of both hemispheres, they cover the middle latitudes from to approximately ...

, and has links ( teleconnections) to higher-latitude regions of the world. The warming phase of the sea surface temperature is known as "El Niño" and the cooling phase as "La Niña". The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric oscillation, which is coupled with the sea temperature change. El Niño is associated with higher than normal air sea level pressure over Indonesia, Australia and across the

Indian Ocean The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, covering or approximately 20% of the water area of Earth#Surface, Earth's surface. It is bounded by Asia to the north, Africa to the west and Australia (continent), ...

to the

Atlantic The Atlantic Ocean is the second largest of the world's five oceanic divisions, with an area of about . It covers approximately 17% of Earth's surface and about 24% of its water surface area. During the Age of Discovery, it was known for se ...

. La Niña has roughly the reverse pattern: high pressure over the central and eastern Pacific and lower pressure through much of the rest of the tropics and subtropics. The two phenomena last a year or so each and typically occur every two to seven years with varying intensity, with neutral periods of lower intensity interspersed. El Niño events can be more intense but La Niña events may repeat and last longer. A key mechanism of ENSO is the Bjerknes feedback (named after Jacob Bjerknes in 1969) in which the atmospheric changes alter the sea temperatures that in turn alter the atmospheric winds in a positive feedback. Weaker easterly

trade winds The trade winds or easterlies are permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region. The trade winds blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere ...

result in a surge of warm surface waters to the east and reduced ocean upwelling on the

equator The equator is the circle of latitude that divides Earth into the Northern Hemisphere, Northern and Southern Hemisphere, Southern Hemispheres of Earth, hemispheres. It is an imaginary line located at 0 degrees latitude, about in circumferen ...

. In turn, this leads to warmer sea surface temperatures (called El Niño), a weaker Walker circulation (an east-west overturning circulation in the atmosphere) and even weaker trade winds. Ultimately the warm waters in the western tropical Pacific are depleted enough so that conditions return to normal. The exact mechanisms that cause the oscillation are unclear and are being studied. Each country that monitors the ENSO has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño or La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests. El Niño and La Niña affect the global climate and disrupt normal weather patterns, which as a result can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term surface cooling. Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on timescales of around ten years. The countries most affected by ENSO are

developing countries A developing country is a sovereign state with a less-developed Secondary sector of the economy, industrial base and a lower Human Development Index (HDI) relative to developed countries. However, this definition is not universally agreed upon. ...

that are bordering the Pacific Ocean and are dependent on agriculture and fishing. In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena.IPCC, 2021
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis

Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2391 pp. doi:10.1017/9781009157896. Future trends in ENSO due to

climate change Present-day climate change includes both global warming—the ongoing increase in Global surface temperature, global average temperature—and its wider effects on Earth's climate system. Climate variability and change, Climate change in ...

are uncertain, although climate change exacerbates the effects of droughts and floods. The

IPCC Sixth Assessment Report The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess the available scientific information on climate change. Three Working Groups (WGI, II, ...

summarized the scientific knowledge in 2021 for the future of ENSO as follows: "In the long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase". The scientific consensus is also that "it is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale".

Definition and terminology

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases in the oscillation which are deemed to occur when specific ocean and atmospheric conditions are reached or exceeded. An early recorded mention of the term "El Niño" ("The Boy" in Spanish) to refer to climate occurred in 1892, when Captain Camilo Carrillo told the geographical society congress in

Lima Lima ( ; ), founded in 1535 as the Ciudad de los Reyes (, Spanish for "City of Biblical Magi, Kings"), is the capital and largest city of Peru. It is located in the valleys of the Chillón River, Chillón, Rímac River, Rímac and Lurín Rive ...

that Peruvian sailors named the warm south-flowing current "El Niño" because it was most noticeable around Christmas. Although pre-Columbian societies were certainly aware of the phenomenon, the indigenous names for it have been lost to history. The capitalized term El Niño refers to the Christ Child,

Jesus Jesus (AD 30 or 33), also referred to as Jesus Christ, Jesus of Nazareth, and many Names and titles of Jesus in the New Testament, other names and titles, was a 1st-century Jewish preacher and religious leader. He is the Jesus in Chris ...

, because periodic warming in the Pacific near

South America South America is a continent entirely in the Western Hemisphere and mostly in the Southern Hemisphere, with a considerably smaller portion in the Northern Hemisphere. It can also be described as the southern Subregion#Americas, subregion o ...

is usually noticed around

Christmas Christmas is an annual festival commemorating Nativity of Jesus, the birth of Jesus Christ, observed primarily on December 25 as a Religion, religious and Culture, cultural celebration among billions of people Observance of Christmas by coun ...

. Originally, the term ''El Niño'' applied to an annual weak warm ocean current that ran southwards along the coast of

Peru Peru, officially the Republic of Peru, is a country in western South America. It is bordered in the north by Ecuador and Colombia, in the east by Brazil, in the southeast by Bolivia, in the south by Chile, and in the south and west by the Pac ...

and

Ecuador Ecuador, officially the Republic of Ecuador, is a country in northwestern South America, bordered by Colombia on the north, Peru on the east and south, and the Pacific Ocean on the west. It also includes the Galápagos Province which contain ...

at about

time. However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The original phrase, ''El Niño de Navidad'', arose centuries ago, when

Peruvian Peruvians (''/peruanas'') are the citizens of Peru. What is now Peru has been inhabited for several millennia by cultures such as the Caral before the Spanish conquest in the 16th century. Peruvian population decreased from an estimated 5–9 ...

fishermen named the weather phenomenon after the newborn Christ. La Niña ("The Girl" in Spanish) is the colder counterpart of El Niño, as part of the broader ENSO climate pattern. In the past, it was also called an anti-El Niño and El Viejo, meaning "the old man." A negative phase exists when atmospheric pressure over Indonesia and the west Pacific is abnormally high and pressure over the east Pacific is abnormally low, during El Niño episodes, and a positive phase is when the opposite occurs during La Niña episodes, and pressure over Indonesia is low and over the west Pacific is high.

Fundamentals

On average, the temperature of the ocean surface in the tropical East Pacific is roughly cooler than in the tropical West Pacific. The

(SST) of the West Pacific northeast of

Australia Australia, officially the Commonwealth of Australia, is a country comprising mainland Australia, the mainland of the Australia (continent), Australian continent, the island of Tasmania and list of islands of Australia, numerous smaller isl ...

averages around . SSTs in the East Pacific off the western coast of South America are closer to . Strong

near the equator push water away from the East Pacific and towards the West Pacific. This water is slowly warmed by the Sun as it moves west along the equator. The ocean surface near

Indonesia Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia, is a country in Southeast Asia and Oceania, between the Indian Ocean, Indian and Pacific Ocean, Pacific oceans. Comprising over List of islands of Indonesia, 17,000 islands, including Sumatra, ...

is typically around higher than near

because of the buildup of water in the West Pacific. The

thermocline A thermocline (also known as the thermal layer or the metalimnion in lakes) is a distinct layer based on temperature within a large body of fluid (e.g. water, as in an ocean or lake; or air, e.g. an atmosphere) with a high gradient of distinct te ...

, or the transitional zone between the warmer waters near the ocean surface and the cooler waters of the deep ocean, is pushed downwards in the West Pacific due to this water accumulation. The total weight of a column of ocean water is almost the same in the western and east Pacific. Because the warmer waters of the upper ocean are slightly less dense than the cooler deep ocean, the thicker layer of warmer water in the western Pacific means the thermocline there must be deeper. The difference in weight must be enough to drive any deep water return flow. Consequently, the thermocline is tilted across the tropical Pacific, rising from an average depth of about in the West Pacific to a depth of about in the East Pacific. Cooler deep ocean water takes the place of the outgoing surface waters in the East Pacific, rising to the ocean surface in a process called

upwelling Upwelling is an physical oceanography, oceanographic phenomenon that involves wind-driven motion of dense, cooler, and usually nutrient-rich water from deep water towards the ocean surface. It replaces the warmer and usually nutrient-depleted sur ...

. Along the western coast of South America, water near the ocean surface is pushed westward due to the combination of the trade winds and the

Coriolis effect In physics, the Coriolis force is a pseudo force that acts on objects in motion within a frame of reference that rotates with respect to an inertial frame. In a reference frame with clockwise rotation, the force acts to the left of the moti ...

. This process is known as

Ekman transport Ekman transport is part of Ekman motion theory, first investigated in 1902 by Vagn Walfrid Ekman. Winds are the main source of energy for ocean circulation, and Ekman transport is a component of wind-driven ocean current. Ekman transport occurs w ...

. Colder water from deeper in the ocean rises along the

continental margin A continental margin is the outer edge of continental crust abutting oceanic crust under coastal waters. It is one of the three major zones of the ocean floor, the other two being deep-ocean basins and mid-ocean ridges. The continental marg ...

to replace the near-surface water. This process cools the East Pacific because the thermocline is closer to the ocean surface, leaving relatively little separation between the deeper cold water and the ocean surface. Additionally, the northward-flowing Humboldt Current carries colder water from the

Southern Ocean The Southern Ocean, also known as the Antarctic Ocean, comprises the southernmost waters of the world ocean, generally taken to be south of 60th parallel south, 60° S latitude and encircling Antarctica. With a size of , it is the seco ...

to the

in the East Pacific. The combination of the Humboldt Current and upwelling maintains an area of cooler ocean waters off the coast of Peru. The West Pacific lacks a cold

ocean current An ocean current is a continuous, directed movement of seawater generated by a number of forces acting upon the water, including wind, the Coriolis effect, breaking waves, cabbeling, and temperature and salinity differences. Depth contours, sh ...

and has less upwelling as the trade winds are usually weaker than in the East Pacific, allowing the West Pacific to reach warmer temperatures. These warmer waters provide energy for the upward movement of air. As a result, the warm West Pacific has on average more cloudiness and rainfall than the cool East Pacific. ENSO describes a quasi-periodic change of both oceanic and atmospheric conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean. These changes affect weather patterns across much of the Earth. The tropical Pacific is said to be in one of three states of ENSO (also called "phases") depending on the atmospheric and oceanic conditions. When the tropical Pacific roughly reflects the average conditions, the state of ENSO is said to be in the ''neutral'' phase. However, the tropical Pacific experiences occasional shifts away from these average conditions. If trade winds are weaker than average, the effect of upwelling in the East Pacific and the flow of warmer ocean surface waters towards the West Pacific lessen. This results in a cooler West Pacific and a warmer East Pacific, leading to a shift of cloudiness and rainfall towards the East Pacific. This situation is called El Niño. The opposite occurs if trade winds are stronger than average, leading to a warmer West Pacific and a cooler East Pacific. This situation is called La Niña and is associated with increased cloudiness and rainfall over the West Pacific.

Bjerknes feedback

The close relationship between ocean temperatures and the strength of the trade winds was first identified by Jacob Bjerknes in 1969. Bjerknes also hypothesized that ENSO was a

positive feedback Positive feedback (exacerbating feedback, self-reinforcing feedback) is a process that occurs in a feedback loop where the outcome of a process reinforces the inciting process to build momentum. As such, these forces can exacerbate the effects ...

system where the associated changes in one component of the

climate system Earth's climate system is a complex system with five interacting components: the Atmosphere of Earth, atmosphere (air), the hydrosphere (water), the cryosphere (ice and permafrost), the lithosphere (earth's upper rocky layer) and the biosphere ( ...

(the ocean or atmosphere) tend to reinforce changes in the other. For example, during El Niño, the reduced contrast in ocean temperatures across the Pacific results in weaker trade winds, further reinforcing the El Niño state. This process is known as ''Bjerknes feedback''. Although these associated changes in the ocean and atmosphere often occur together, the state of the atmosphere may resemble a different ENSO phase than the state of the ocean or vice versa. Because their states are closely linked, the variations of ENSO may arise from changes in both the ocean and atmosphere and not necessarily from an initial change of exclusively one or the other.

Conceptual model The term conceptual model refers to any model that is formed after a wikt:concept#Noun, conceptualization or generalization process. Conceptual models are often abstractions of things in the real world, whether physical or social. Semantics, Semant ...

s explaining how ENSO operates generally accept the Bjerknes feedback hypothesis. However, ENSO would perpetually remain in one phase if Bjerknes feedback were the only process occurring. Several theories have been proposed to explain how ENSO can change from one state to the next, despite the positive feedback. These explanations broadly fall under two categories. In one view, the Bjerknes feedback naturally triggers

negative feedback Negative feedback (or balancing feedback) occurs when some function (Mathematics), function of the output of a system, process, or mechanism is feedback, fed back in a manner that tends to reduce the fluctuations in the output, whether caused ...

s that end and reverse the abnormal state of the tropical Pacific. This perspective implies that the processes that lead to El Niño and La Niña also eventually bring about their end, making ENSO a self-sustaining process. Other theories view the state of ENSO as being changed by irregular and external phenomena such as the Madden–Julian oscillation, tropical instability waves, and westerly wind bursts.

Walker circulation

The three phases of ENSO relate to the Walker circulation, which was named after Gilbert Walker who discovered the Southern Oscillation during the early twentieth century. The Walker circulation is an east-west overturning circulation in the vicinity of the equator in the Pacific. Upward air is associated with high sea temperatures, convection and rainfall, while the downward branch occurs over cooler sea surface temperatures in the east. During El Niño, as the sea surface temperatures change so does the Walker Circulation. Warming in the eastern tropical Pacific weakens or reverses the downward branch, while cooler conditions in the west lead to less rain and downward air, so the Walker Circulation first weakens and may reverse.]

Southern Oscillation

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of ENSO. This component is an oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western

waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between

Tahiti Tahiti (; Tahitian language, Tahitian , ; ) is the largest island of the Windward Islands (Society Islands), Windward group of the Society Islands in French Polynesia, an overseas collectivity of France. It is located in the central part of t ...

(in the Pacific) and

Darwin, Australia Darwin (Laragiya language, Larrakia: ') is the List of Australian capital cities, capital city of the Northern Territory, Australia. The city has nearly 53% of the Northern Territory's population, with 139,902 at the 2021 Australian census, ...

(on the Indian Ocean). El Niño episodes have negative SOI, meaning there is lower pressure over Tahiti and higher pressure in Darwin. La Niña episodes on the other hand have positive SOI, meaning there is higher pressure in Tahiti and lower in Darwin. Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold water, in part because of deep convection over the warm water. El Niño episodes are defined as sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in a decrease in the strength of the Pacific

, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia. La Niña episodes are defined as sustained cooling of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, thus resulting in an increase in the strength of the Pacific

, and the opposite effects in Australia when compared to El Niño. Although the Southern Oscillation Index has a long station record going back to the 1800s, its reliability is limited due to the latitudes of both Darwin and Tahiti being well south of the Equator, so that the surface air pressure at both locations is less directly related to ENSO. To overcome this effect, a new index was created, named the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI). To generate this index, two new regions, centered on the Equator, were defined. The western region is located over Indonesia and the eastern one over the equatorial Pacific, close to the South American coast. However, data on EQSOI goes back only to 1949. Sea surface height (SSH) changes up or down by several centimeters in Pacific equatorial region with the ESNO: El Niño causes a positive SSH anomaly (raised sea level) because of

thermal expansion Thermal expansion is the tendency of matter to increase in length, area, or volume, changing its size and density, in response to an increase in temperature (usually excluding phase transitions). Substances usually contract with decreasing temp ...

while La Niña causes a negative SSH anomaly (lowered sea level) via contraction.

Three phases of sea surface temperature

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is a single climate phenomenon that quasi-periodically fluctuates between three phases: Neutral, La Niña or El Niño. La Niña and El Niño are opposite phases which require certain changes to take place in both the ocean and the atmosphere before an event is declared. The cool phase of ENSO is La Niña, with SST in the eastern Pacific below average, and air pressure high in the eastern Pacific and low in the western Pacific. The ENSO cycle, including both El Niño and La Niña, causes global changes in temperature and rainfall.

Neutral phase

If the temperature variation from climatology is within 0.5 °C (0.9 °F), ENSO conditions are described as neutral. Neutral conditions are the transition between warm and cold phases of ENSO. Sea surface temperatures (by definition), tropical precipitation, and wind patterns are near average conditions during this phase. Close to half of all years are within neutral periods. During the neutral ENSO phase, other climate anomalies/patterns such as the sign of the North Atlantic Oscillation or the Pacific–North American teleconnection pattern exert more influence.

El Niño phase

El Niño conditions are established when the Walker circulation weakens or reverses and the Hadley circulation strengthens, leading to the development of a band of warm ocean water in the central and east-central equatorial

Pacific The Pacific Ocean is the largest and deepest of Earth's five oceanic divisions. It extends from the Arctic Ocean in the north to the Southern Ocean, or, depending on the definition, to Antarctica in the south, and is bounded by the cont ...

(approximately between the

International Date Line The International Date Line (IDL) is the line extending between the South and North Poles that is the boundary between one calendar day and the next. It passes through the Pacific Ocean, roughly following the 180.0° line of longitude and de ...

and 120°W), including the area off the west coast of

, as

of cold water occurs less or not at all offshore. This warming causes a shift in the atmospheric circulation, leading to higher

air pressure Atmospheric pressure, also known as air pressure or barometric pressure (after the barometer), is the pressure within the atmosphere of Earth. The Standard atmosphere (unit), standard atmosphere (symbol: atm) is a unit of pressure defined as , whi ...

in the western Pacific and lower in the eastern Pacific, with rainfall reducing over Indonesia, India and northern Australia, while rainfall and tropical cyclone formation increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean. The low-level surface

, which normally blow from east to west along the equator, either weaken or start blowing from the other direction. El Niño phases are known to happen at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. The average period length is five years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño "conditions"; when its duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño "episode".

ImageSize = width:800 height:70 PlotArea = left:50 bottom:20 width:700 height:40 Period = from:1900 till:2025 DateFormat = yyyy TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMajor = unit:year increment:5 start:1900 PlotData = bar:elniño width:30 color:red mark:(line,white) from:1902 till:1903 from:1905 till:1906 from:1911 till:1912 from:1913 till:1915 from:1919 till:1920 from:1925 till:1926 from:1940 till:1942 from:1946 till:1947 from:1951 till:1952 from:1953 till:1954 from:1957 till:1958 from:1958 till:1959 from:1963 till:1964 from:1965 till:1966 from:1968 till:1969 from:1969 till:1970 from:1972 till:1973 from:1976 till:1977 from:1977 till:1978 from:1979 till:1980 from:1982 till:1983 from:1986 till:1988 from:1991 till:1992 from:1993 till:1994 from:1994 till:1995 from:1997 till:1998 from:2002 till:2003 from:2004 till:2005 from:2006 till:2007 from:2009 till:2010 from:2014 till:2016 from:2018 till:2019 from:2023 till:2024

It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events between 1900 and 2024, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. Since 2000, El Niño events have been observed in 2002–03, 2004–05, 2006–07, 2009–10, 2014–16, 2018–19, and 2023–24. Major ENSO events were recorded in the years 1790–93, 1828, 1876–78, 1891, 1925–26, 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98, 2014–16, and 2023–24. During strong El Niño episodes, a secondary peak in sea surface temperature across the far eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean sometimes follows the initial peak.

La Niña phase

An especially strong Walker circulation causes La Niña, which is considered to be the cold oceanic and positive atmospheric phase of the broader El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) weather phenomenon, as well as the opposite of weather pattern, where

across the eastern equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean will be lower than normal by 3–5 °C (5.4–9 °F). The phenomenon occurs as strong winds blow warm water at the ocean's surface away from South America, across the Pacific Ocean towards Indonesia. As this warm water moves west, cold water from the deep sea rises to the surface near South America. The movement of so much heat across a quarter of the planet, and particularly in the form of temperature at the ocean surface, can have a significant effect on weather across the entire planet. Tropical instability waves visible on sea surface temperature maps, showing a tongue of colder water, are often present during neutral or La Niña conditions. La Niña is a complex weather pattern that occurs every few years, often persisting for longer than five months. El Niño and La Niña can be indicators of weather changes across the globe.

and Pacific hurricanes can have different characteristics due to lower or higher

wind shear Wind shear (; also written windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical ...

and cooler or warmer sea surface temperatures.

ImageSize = width:800 height:70 PlotArea = left:50 bottom:20 width:700 height:40 Period = from:1900 till:2025 DateFormat = yyyy TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMajor = unit:year increment:5 start:1900 PlotData = bar:laniña width:30 color:blue mark:(line,white) from:1903 till:1904 from:1906 till:1907 from:1909 till:1911 from:1916 till:1918 from:1924 till:1925 from:1928 till:1930 from:1938 till:1939 from:1942 till:1943 from:1949 till:1951 from:1954 till:1957 from:1964 till:1965 from:1967 till:1968 from:1970 till:1972 from:1973 till:1974 from:1974 till:1976 from:1983 till:1984 from:1984 till:1985 from:1988 till:1989 from:1995 till:1996 from:1998 till:2001 from:2005 till:2006 from:2007 till:2008 from:2008 till:2009 from:2010 till:2012 from:2016 till:2017 from:2017 till:2018 from:2020 till:2023 A timeline of all La Niña episodes between 1900 and 2023. Note that each forecast agency has a different criteria for what constitutes a La Niña event, which is tailored to their specific interests.

La Niña events have been observed for hundreds of years, and occurred on a regular basis during the early parts of both the 17th and 19th centuries. Since the start of the 20th century, La Niña events have occurred during the following years:

Transitional phases

Transitional phases at the onset or departure of El Niño or La Niña can also be important factors on global weather by affecting teleconnections. Significant episodes, known as Trans-Niño, are measured by the Trans-Niño index (TNI). Examples of affected short-time climate in North America include precipitation in the Northwest US and intense tornado activity in the contiguous US.

Variations

ENSO Modoki

The first ENSO pattern to be recognised, called Eastern Pacific (EP) ENSO, to distinguish it from others, involves temperature anomalies in the eastern Pacific. However, in the 1990s and 2000s, variations of ENSO conditions were observed, in which the usual place of the temperature anomaly (Niño 1 and 2) is not affected, but an anomaly also arises in the central Pacific (Niño 3.4). The phenomenon is called Central Pacific (CP) ENSO, "dateline" ENSO (because the anomaly arises near the dateline), or ENSO "Modoki" (Modoki is Japanese for "similar, but different"). There are variations of ENSO additional to the EP and CP types, and some scientists argue that ENSO exists as a continuum, often with hybrid types. The effects of the CP ENSO are different from those of the EP ENSO. The El Niño Modoki is associated with more hurricanes more frequently making landfall in the Atlantic. La Niña Modoki leads to a rainfall increase over northwestern Australia and northern Murray–Darling basin, rather than over the eastern portion of the country as in a conventional EP La Niña. Also, La Niña Modoki increases the frequency of cyclonic storms over

Bay of Bengal The Bay of Bengal is the northeastern part of the Indian Ocean. Geographically it is positioned between the Indian subcontinent and the Mainland Southeast Asia, Indochinese peninsula, located below the Bengal region. Many South Asian and Southe ...

, but decreases the occurrence of severe storms in the

overall. The first recorded El Niño that originated in the central Pacific and moved toward the east was in 1986. Recent Central Pacific El Niños happened in 1986–87, 1991–92, 1994–95, 2002–03, 2004–05 and 2009–10. Furthermore, there were "Modoki" events in 1957–59, 1963–64, 1965–66, 1968–70, 1977–78 and 1979–80. Some sources say that the El Niños of 2006-07 and 2014-16 were also Central Pacific El Niños. Recent years when La Niña Modoki events occurred include 1973–1974, 1975–1976, 1983–1984, 1988–1989, 1998–1999, 2000–2001, 2008–2009, 2010–2011, and 2016–2017. The recent discovery of ENSO Modoki has some scientists believing it to be linked to global warming. However, comprehensive satellite data go back only to 1979. More research must be done to find the correlation and study past El Niño episodes. More generally, there is no scientific consensus on how/if

might affect ENSO. There is also a scientific debate on the very existence of this "new" ENSO. A number of studies dispute the reality of this statistical distinction or its increasing occurrence, or both, either arguing the reliable record is too short to detect such a distinction, finding no distinction or trend using other statistical approaches, or that other types should be distinguished, such as standard and extreme ENSO. Likewise, following the asymmetric nature of the warm and cold phases of ENSO, some studies could not identify similar variations for La Niña, both in observations and in the climate models, but some sources could identify variations on La Niña with cooler waters on central Pacific and average or warmer water temperatures on both eastern and western Pacific, also showing eastern Pacific Ocean currents going to the opposite direction compared to the currents in traditional La Niñas.

ENSO Costero

Coined by the Peruvian (ENFEN), ENSO Costero, or ENSO Oriental, is the name given to the phenomenon where the sea-surface temperature anomalies are mostly focused on the South American coastline, especially from Peru and Ecuador. Studies point many factors that can lead to its occurrence, sometimes accompanying, or being accompanied, by a larger EP ENSO occurrence, or even displaying opposite conditions from the observed ones in the other Niño regions when accompanied by Modoki variations. ENSO Costero events usually present more localized effects, with warm phases leading to increased rainfall over the coast of Ecuador, northern Peru and the

Amazon rainforest The Amazon rainforest, also called the Amazon jungle or Amazonia, is a Tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests, moist broadleaf tropical rainforest in the Amazon biome that covers most of the Amazon basin of South America. This basin ...

, and increased temperatures over the northern Chilean coast, and cold phases leading to droughts on the Peruvian coast, and increased rainfall and decreased temperatures on its mountainous and jungle regions. Because they don't influence the global climate as much as the other types, these events present lesser and weaker correlations to other significant ENSO features, neither always being triggered by

Kelvin wave A Kelvin wave is a wave in the ocean, a large lake or the atmosphere that balances the Earth's Coriolis force against a topographic boundary such as a coastline, or a waveguide such as the equator. A feature of a Kelvin wave is that it is non-d ...

s, nor always being accompanied by proportional Southern Oscillation responses. According to the Coastal Niño Index (ICEN), strong El Niño Costero events include 1957, 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16, and La Niña Costera ones include 1950, 1954–56, 1962, 1964, 1966, 1967–68, 1970–71, 1975–76 and 2013.

Monitoring and declaration of conditions

Currently, each country has a different threshold for what constitutes an El Niño event, which is tailored to their specific interests, for example: * In the United States, an El Niño is declared when the Climate Prediction Center, which monitors the

sea surface temperatures Sea surface temperature (or ocean surface temperature) is the ocean temperature, temperature of ocean water close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies in the literature and in practice. It is usually between and below the sea ...

in the ''Niño 3.4 region'' and the tropical Pacific, forecasts that the sea surface temperature will be above average or more for the next several seasons. The ''Niño 3.4 region'' stretches from the 120th to 170th meridians west longitude astride the equator five degrees of latitude on either side, are monitored. It is approximately to the southeast of

Hawaii Hawaii ( ; ) is an island U.S. state, state of the United States, in the Pacific Ocean about southwest of the U.S. mainland. One of the two Non-contiguous United States, non-contiguous U.S. states (along with Alaska), it is the only sta ...

. The most recent three-month average for the area is computed, and if the region is more than 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) above (or below) normal for that period, then an El Niño (or La Niña) is considered in progress. * The Australian

Bureau of Meteorology The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM or BoM) is an executive agency of the Government of Australia, Australian Government that is responsible for providing Weather forecasting, weather forecasts and Meteorology, meteorological services to Australia a ...

looks at the trade winds, Southern Oscillation Index, weather models and sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3 and 3.4 regions, before declaring an ENSO event. * The

Japan Meteorological Agency The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA; ''気象庁, Kishō-chō'') is a division of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism dedicated to the Scientific, scientific observation and research of natural phenomena. Headquartered ...

declares that an ENSO event has started when the average five month sea surface temperature deviation for the Niño 3 region is over for six consecutive months or longer. * The Peruvian government declares that an ENSO Costero is under way if the sea surface temperature deviation in the Niño 1+2 regions equal or exceed for at least three months. * The United Kingdom's

Met Office The Met Office, until November 2000 officially the Meteorological Office, is the United Kingdom's national weather and climate service. It is an executive agency and trading fund of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology and ...

also uses a several month period to determine ENSO state. When this warming or cooling occurs for only seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs for more than that period, it is classified as El Niño/La Niña "episodes".

Effects of ENSO on global climate

In climate change science, ENSO is known as one of the internal climate variability phenomena. The other two main ones are Pacific decadal oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. La Niña impacts the global climate and disrupts normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others. El Niño events cause short-term (approximately 1 year in length) spikes in global average surface temperature while La Niña events cause short term cooling. Therefore, the relative frequency of El Niño compared to La Niña events can affect global temperature trends on decadal timescales.

Climate change

There is no sign that there are actual changes in the ENSO physical phenomenon due to climate change. Climate models do not simulate ENSO well enough to make reliable predictions. Future trends in ENSO are uncertain as different models make different predictions. It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become weaker. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other. The consequences of ENSO in terms of the temperature anomalies and precipitation and weather extremes around the world are clearly increasing and associated with

. For example, recent scholarship (since about 2019) has found that climate change is increasing the frequency of extreme El Niño events. Previously there was no consensus on whether climate change will have any influence on the strength or duration of El Niño events, as research alternately supported El Niño events becoming stronger and weaker, longer and shorter. While much longer observation of ENSO is needed to robustly detect changes, a large ensemble experiment with multiple climate models shows an increase of approximately 10 % in eastern Pacific ENSO amplitude between the 1901–1960 and 1961–2020 periods of greenhouse-gas increase. Compared to centuries-long runs with pre-industrial GHG concentrations, the ensemble of 1961–2020 results shows twice the likelihood of strong eastern Pacific El Niño events and nine times the likelihood of strong central Pacific La Niña events. The

summarized the state of the art of research in 2021 into the future of ENSO as follows: * "In the long term, it is very likely that the precipitation variance related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation will increase" and * "It is very likely that rainfall variability related to changes in the strength and spatial extent of ENSO teleconnections will lead to significant changes at regional scale". and * "There is medium confidence that both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of high-magnitude events since 1950 are higher than over the period from 1850 and possibly as far back as 1400".

Investigations regarding tipping points

The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate. Global warming can strengthen the ENSO teleconnection and resulting extreme weather events. For example, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of El Niño events have triggered warmer than usual temperatures over the Indian Ocean, by modulating the Walker circulation. This has resulted in a rapid warming of the Indian Ocean, and consequently a weakening of the Asian Monsoon.

Effects of ENSO on weather patterns

El Niño affects the global climate and disrupts normal weather patterns, which can lead to intense storms in some places and droughts in others.

Tropical cyclones

Most tropical cyclones form on the side of the

subtropical ridge The horse latitudes are the latitudes about 30 degrees north and south of the Equator. They are characterized by sunny skies, calm winds, and very little precipitation. They are also known as subtropical ridges or highs. It is a high-pressur ...

closer to the

, then move poleward past the ridge axis before recurving into the main belt of the

Westerlies The westerlies, anti-trades, or prevailing westerlies, are prevailing winds from the west toward the east in the middle latitudes between 30 and 60 degrees latitude. They originate from the high-pressure areas in the horse latitudes (about ...

. Areas west of

Japan Japan is an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean off the northeast coast of the Asia, Asian mainland, it is bordered on the west by the Sea of Japan and extends from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea ...

and

Korea Korea is a peninsular region in East Asia consisting of the Korean Peninsula, Jeju Island, and smaller islands. Since the end of World War II in 1945, it has been politically Division of Korea, divided at or near the 38th parallel north, 3 ...

tend to experience many fewer September–November tropical cyclone impacts during El Niño and neutral years. During El Niño years, the break in the

tends to lie near 130°E, which would favor the Japanese archipelago. Based on modeled and observed accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), El Niño years usually result in less active hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean, but instead favor a shift to

tropical cyclone A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure area, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its locat ...

activity in the Pacific Ocean, compared to La Niña years favoring above average hurricane development in the Atlantic and less so in the Pacific basin. Over the

Atlantic Ocean The Atlantic Ocean is the second largest of the world's five borders of the oceans, oceanic divisions, with an area of about . It covers approximately 17% of Earth#Surface, Earth's surface and about 24% of its water surface area. During the ...

, vertical wind shear is increased, which inhibits tropical cyclone genesis and intensification, by causing the westerly winds to be stronger. The atmosphere over the Atlantic Ocean can also be drier and more stable during El Niño events, which can inhibit tropical cyclone genesis and intensification. Within the Eastern Pacific basin: El Niño events contribute to decreased easterly vertical wind shear and favor above-normal hurricane activity. However, the impacts of the ENSO state in this region can vary and are strongly influenced by background climate patterns. The Western Pacific basin experiences a change in the location of where tropical cyclones form during El Niño events, with tropical cyclone formation shifting eastward, without a major change in how many develop each year. As a result of this change, Micronesia is more likely, and China less likely, to be affected by tropical cyclones. A change in the location of where tropical cyclones form also occurs within the Southern Pacific Ocean between 135°E and 120°W, with tropical cyclones more likely to occur within the Southern Pacific basin than the Australian region. As a result of this change tropical cyclones are 50% less likely to make landfall on Queensland, while the risk of a tropical cyclone is elevated for island nations like

Niue Niue is a self-governing island country in free association with New Zealand. It is situated in the South Pacific Ocean and is part of Polynesia, and predominantly inhabited by Polynesians. One of the world's largest coral islands, Niue is c ...

French Polynesia French Polynesia ( ; ; ) is an overseas collectivity of France and its sole #Governance, overseas country. It comprises 121 geographically dispersed islands and atolls stretching over more than in the Pacific Ocean, South Pacific Ocean. The t ...

Tonga Tonga, officially the Kingdom of Tonga, is an island country in Polynesia, part of Oceania. The country has 171 islands, of which 45 are inhabited. Its total surface area is about , scattered over in the southern Pacific Ocean. accordin ...

Tuvalu Tuvalu ( ) is an island country in the Polynesian subregion of Oceania in the Pacific Ocean, about midway between Hawaii and Australia. It lies east-northeast of the Santa Cruz Islands (which belong to the Solomon Islands), northeast of Van ...

, and the

Cook Islands The Cook Islands is an island country in Polynesia, part of Oceania in the South Pacific Ocean. It consists of 15 islands whose total land area is approximately . The Cook Islands' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covers of ocean. Avarua is its ...

Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean

A study of climate records has shown that El Niño events in the equatorial Pacific are generally associated with a warm tropical North Atlantic in the following spring and summer. About half of El Niño events persist sufficiently into the spring months for the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool to become unusually large in summer. Occasionally, El Niño's effect on the Atlantic Walker circulation over South America strengthens the easterly trade winds in the western equatorial Atlantic region. As a result, an unusual cooling may occur in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in spring and summer following El Niño peaks in winter. Cases of El Niño-type events in both oceans simultaneously have been linked to severe famines related to the extended failure of

monsoon A monsoon () is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in Atmosphere of Earth, atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annu ...

rains.

Impacts on humans and ecosystems

Economic impacts

When El Niño conditions last for many months, extensive

ocean warming Ocean heat content (OHC) or ocean heat uptake (OHU) is the energy absorbed and stored by oceans, and is thus an important indicator of Climate change, global warming. Ocean heat content is calculated by measuring ocean temperature at many differe ...

and the reduction in easterly trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient-rich deep water, and its economic effect on local fishing for an international market can be serious.

Developing countries A developing country is a sovereign state with a less-developed Secondary sector of the economy, industrial base and a lower Human Development Index (HDI) relative to developed countries. However, this definition is not universally agreed upon. ...

that depend on their own agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are usually most affected by El Niño conditions. In this phase of the Oscillation, the pool of warm water in the Pacific near South America is often at its warmest in late December. More generally, El Niño can affect commodity prices and the macroeconomy of different countries. It can constrain the supply of rain-driven agricultural commodities; reduce agricultural output, construction, and services activities; increase food prices; and may trigger social unrest in commodity-dependent poor countries that primarily rely on imported food. A University of Cambridge Working Paper shows that while Australia, Chile, Indonesia, India, Japan, New Zealand and South Africa face a short-lived fall in economic activity in response to an El Niño shock, other countries may actually benefit from an El Niño weather shock (either directly or indirectly through positive spillovers from major trading partners), for instance, Argentina, Canada, Mexico and the United States. Furthermore, most countries experience short-run inflationary pressures following an El Niño shock, while global energy and non-fuel commodity prices increase. The IMF estimates a significant El Niño can boost the GDP of the United States by about 0.5% (due largely to lower heating bills) and reduce the GDP of Indonesia by about 1.0%.

Health and social impacts

Extreme weather conditions related to the El Niño cycle correlate with changes in the incidence of

epidemic An epidemic (from Greek ἐπί ''epi'' "upon or above" and δῆμος ''demos'' "people") is the rapid spread of disease to a large number of hosts in a given population within a short period of time. For example, in meningococcal infection ...

diseases. For example, the El Niño cycle is associated with increased risks of some of the diseases transmitted by

mosquitoes Mosquitoes, the Culicidae, are a family of small flies consisting of 3,600 species. The word ''mosquito'' (formed by '' mosca'' and diminutive ''-ito'') is Spanish and Portuguese for ''little fly''. Mosquitoes have a slender segmented body, ...

, such as

malaria Malaria is a Mosquito-borne disease, mosquito-borne infectious disease that affects vertebrates and ''Anopheles'' mosquitoes. Human malaria causes Signs and symptoms, symptoms that typically include fever, Fatigue (medical), fatigue, vomitin ...

dengue fever Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease caused by dengue virus, prevalent in tropical and subtropical areas. Asymptomatic infections are uncommon, mild cases happen frequently; if symptoms appear, they typically begin 3 to 14 days after i ...

, and Rift Valley fever. Cycles of malaria in

India India, officially the Republic of India, is a country in South Asia. It is the List of countries and dependencies by area, seventh-largest country by area; the List of countries by population (United Nations), most populous country since ...

Venezuela Venezuela, officially the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela, is a country on the northern coast of South America, consisting of a continental landmass and many Federal Dependencies of Venezuela, islands and islets in the Caribbean Sea. It com ...

Brazil Brazil, officially the Federative Republic of Brazil, is the largest country in South America. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by area, fifth-largest country by area and the List of countries and dependencies by population ...

, and

Colombia Colombia, officially the Republic of Colombia, is a country primarily located in South America with Insular region of Colombia, insular regions in North America. The Colombian mainland is bordered by the Caribbean Sea to the north, Venezuel ...

have now been linked to El Niño. Outbreaks of another mosquito-transmitted disease, Australian encephalitis ( Murray Valley encephalitis—MVE), occur in temperate south-east Australia after heavy rainfall and flooding, which are associated with La Niña events. A severe outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred after extreme rainfall in north-eastern Kenya and southern Somalia during the 1997–98 El Niño. ENSO conditions have also been related to Kawasaki disease incidence in Japan and the west coast of the United States, via the linkage to tropospheric winds across the north Pacific Ocean. ENSO may be linked to civil conflicts. Scientists at The Earth Institute of

Columbia University Columbia University in the City of New York, commonly referred to as Columbia University, is a Private university, private Ivy League research university in New York City. Established in 1754 as King's College on the grounds of Trinity Churc ...

, having analyzed data from 1950 to 2004, suggest ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil conflicts since 1950, with the risk of annual civil conflict doubling from 3% to 6% in countries affected by ENSO during El Niño years relative to La Niña years.

Ecological consequences

During the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2015–16 ENSO events, large extensions of tropical forests experienced a prolonged dry period that resulted in widespread fires, and drastic changes in forest structure and tree species composition in Amazonian and Bornean forests. Their impacts do not restrict only vegetation, since declines in insect populations were observed after extreme drought and terrible fires during El Niño 2015–16. Declines in habitat-specialist and disturbance-sensitive bird species and in large-frugivorous mammals were also observed in Amazonian burned forests, while temporary extirpation of more than 100 lowland butterfly species occurred at a burned forest site in Borneo. In seasonally dry tropical forests, which are more drought tolerant, researchers found that El Niño induced drought increased seedling mortality. In a research published in October 2022, researchers studied seasonally dry tropical forests in a national park in

Chiang Mai Chiang Mai, sometimes written as Chiengmai or Chiangmai, is the largest city in northern Thailand, the capital of Chiang Mai province and the List of municipalities in Thailand#Largest cities by urban population, second largest city in Thailan ...

in Thailand for 7 years and observed that El Niño increased seedling mortality even in seasonally dry tropical forests and may impact entire forests in long run.

Coral bleaching

Following the El Nino event in 1997 – 1998, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory attributes the first large-scale

coral bleaching Coral bleaching is the process when corals become white due to loss of Symbiosis, symbiotic algae and Photosynthesis, photosynthetic pigments. This loss of pigment can be caused by various stressors, such as changes in water temperature, light, ...

event to the warming waters. Most critically, global mass bleaching events were recorded in 1997-98 and 2015–16, when around 75-99% losses of live coral were registered across the world. Considerable attention was also given to the collapse of Peruvian and Chilean anchovy populations that led to a severe fishery crisis following the ENSO events in 1972–73, 1982–83, 1997–98 and, more recently, in 2015–16. In particular, increased surface seawater temperatures in 1982-83 also lead to the probable extinction of two hydrocoral species in Panamá, and to a massive mortality of kelp beds along 600 km of coastline in Chile, from which kelps and associated biodiversity slowly recovered in the most affected areas even after 20 years. All these findings enlarge the role of ENSO events as a strong climatic force driving ecological changes all around the world – particularly in tropical forests and coral reefs.

Impacts by region

Observations of ENSO events since 1950 show that impacts associated with such events depend on the time of year. While certain events and impacts are expected to occur, it is not certain that they will happen. The impacts that generally do occur during most El Niño events include below-average rainfall over Indonesia and northern South America, and above average rainfall in southeastern South America, eastern equatorial Africa, and the southern United States.

Africa

La Niña results in wetter-than-normal conditions in southern Africa from December to February, and drier-than-normal conditions over equatorial east Africa over the same period. The effects of El Niño on rainfall in southern Africa differ between the summer and winter rainfall areas. Winter rainfall areas tend to get higher rainfall than normal and summer rainfall areas tend to get less rain. The effect on the summer rainfall areas is stronger and has led to severe drought in strong El Niño events. Sea surface temperatures off the west and south coasts of South Africa are affected by ENSO via changes in surface wind strength.Nhesvure, B. (2020). Impacts of ENSO on coastal South African sea surface temperatures. Faculty of Science, Department of Oceanography. Retrieved from http://hdl.handle.net/11427/32954/ During El Niño the south-easterly winds driving upwelling are weaker which results in warmer coastal waters than normal, while during La Niña the same winds are stronger and cause colder coastal waters. These effects on the winds are part of large scale influences on the tropical Atlantic and the South Atlantic High-pressure system, and changes to the pattern of westerly winds further south. There are other influences not known to be related to ENSO of similar importance. Some ENSO events do not lead to the expected changes.

Antarctica

Many ENSO linkages exist in the high southern latitudes around

Antarctica Antarctica () is Earth's southernmost and least-populated continent. Situated almost entirely south of the Antarctic Circle and surrounded by the Southern Ocean (also known as the Antarctic Ocean), it contains the geographic South Pole. ...

. Specifically, El Niño conditions result in high-pressure anomalies over the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas, causing reduced

sea ice Sea ice arises as seawater freezes. Because ice is less density, dense than water, it floats on the ocean's surface (as does fresh water ice). Sea ice covers about 7% of the Earth's surface and about 12% of the world's oceans. Much of the world' ...

and increased poleward heat fluxes in these sectors, as well as the

Ross Sea The Ross Sea is a deep bay of the Southern Ocean in Antarctica, between Victoria Land and Marie Byrd Land and within the Ross Embayment, and is the southernmost sea on Earth. It derives its name from the British explorer James Clark Ross who ...

. The

Weddell Sea The Weddell Sea is part of the Southern Ocean and contains the Weddell Gyre. Its land boundaries are defined by the bay formed from the coasts of Coats Land and the Antarctic Peninsula. The easternmost point is Cape Norvegia at Princess Martha C ...

, conversely, tends to become colder with more sea ice during El Niño. The exact opposite heating and atmospheric pressure anomalies occur during La Niña. This pattern of variability is known as the Antarctic dipole mode, although the Antarctic response to ENSO forcing is not ubiquitous.

Asia

Western Asia West Asia (also called Western Asia or Southwest Asia) is the westernmost region of Asia. As defined by most academics, UN bodies and other institutions, the subregion consists of Anatolia, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran, Mesopotamia, the Armenian ...

, during the region's November–April rainy season, there is increased precipitation in the El Niño phase and reduced precipitation in the La Niña phase on average. During El Niño years: As warm water spreads from the west Pacific and the

to the east Pacific, it takes the rain with it, causing extensive drought in the western Pacific and rainfall in the normally dry eastern Pacific. Singapore experienced the driest February in 2010 since records began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rain falling in the month. The years 1968 and 2005 had the next driest Februaries, when 8.4 mm of rain fell. During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical

ridge A ridge is a long, narrow, elevated geomorphologic landform, structural feature, or a combination of both separated from the surrounding terrain by steep sides. The sides of a ridge slope away from a narrow top, the crest or ridgecrest, wi ...

position, shifts westward across the western Pacific Ocean, which increases the landfall threat in China. In March 2008, La Niña caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by . It also caused heavy rains over the

Philippines The Philippines, officially the Republic of the Philippines, is an Archipelagic state, archipelagic country in Southeast Asia. Located in the western Pacific Ocean, it consists of List of islands of the Philippines, 7,641 islands, with a tot ...

, and

Malaysia Malaysia is a country in Southeast Asia. Featuring the Tanjung Piai, southernmost point of continental Eurasia, it is a federation, federal constitutional monarchy consisting of States and federal territories of Malaysia, 13 states and thre ...

Australia

Across most of the continent, El Niño and La Niña have more impact on climate variability than any other factor. There is a strong correlation between the strength of La Niña and rainfall: the greater the sea surface temperature and Southern Oscillation difference from normal, the larger the rainfall change. During El Niño events, the shift in rainfall away from the Western Pacific may mean that rainfall across Australia is reduced. Over the southern part of the continent, warmer than average temperatures can be recorded as weather systems are more mobile and fewer blocking areas of high pressure occur. The onset of the Indo-Australian Monsoon in tropical Australia is delayed by two to six weeks, which as a consequence means that rainfall is reduced over the northern tropics. The risk of a significant bushfire season in south-eastern Australia is higher following an El Niño event, especially when it is combined with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event.

Europe

El Niño's effects on

Europe Europe is a continent located entirely in the Northern Hemisphere and mostly in the Eastern Hemisphere. It is bordered by the Arctic Ocean to the north, the Atlantic Ocean to the west, the Mediterranean Sea to the south, and Asia to the east ...

are controversial, complex and difficult to analyze, as it is one of several factors that influence the weather over the continent and other factors can overwhelm the signal.

North America

La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño: above-average

precipitation In meteorology, precipitation is any product of the condensation of atmospheric water vapor that falls from clouds due to gravitational pull. The main forms of precipitation include drizzle, rain, rain and snow mixed ("sleet" in Commonwe ...

across the northern

Midwest The Midwestern United States (also referred to as the Midwest, the Heartland or the American Midwest) is one of the four census regions defined by the United States Census Bureau. It occupies the northern central part of the United States. It ...

, the northern Rockies,

Northern California Northern California (commonly shortened to NorCal) is a geocultural region that comprises the northern portion of the U.S. state of California, spanning the northernmost 48 of the state's List of counties in California, 58 counties. Northern Ca ...

, and the

Pacific Northwest The Pacific Northwest (PNW; ) is a geographic region in Western North America bounded by its coastal waters of the Pacific Ocean to the west and, loosely, by the Rocky Mountains to the east. Though no official boundary exists, the most common ...

's southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states, as well as southern California, is below average. This also allows for the development of many stronger-than-average hurricanes in the Atlantic and fewer in the Pacific. ENSO is linked to rainfall over Puerto Rico. During an El Niño, snowfall is greater than average across the southern Rockies and Sierra Nevada mountain range, and is well-below normal across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes states. During a La Niña, snowfall is above normal across the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes. In Canada, La Niña will, in general, cause a cooler, snowier winter, such as the near-record-breaking amounts of snow recorded in the La Niña winter of 2007–2008 in eastern Canada. In the spring of 2022, La Niña caused above-average precipitation and below-average temperatures in the state of Oregon. April was one of the wettest months on record, and La Niña effects, while less severe, were expected to continue into the summer. Over North America, the main temperature and precipitation impacts of El Niño generally occur in the six months between October and March. In particular, the majority of Canada generally has milder than normal winters and springs, with the exception of eastern Canada where no significant impacts occur. Within the United States, the impacts generally observed during the six-month period include wetter-than-average conditions along the

Gulf Coast The Gulf Coast of the United States, also known as the Gulf South or the South Coast, is the coastline along the Southern United States where they meet the Gulf of Mexico. The coastal states that have a shoreline on the Gulf of Mexico are Tex ...

between

Texas Texas ( , ; or ) is the most populous U.S. state, state in the South Central United States, South Central region of the United States. It borders Louisiana to the east, Arkansas to the northeast, Oklahoma to the north, New Mexico to the we ...

and

Florida Florida ( ; ) is a U.S. state, state in the Southeastern United States, Southeastern region of the United States. It borders the Gulf of Mexico to the west, Alabama to the northwest, Georgia (U.S. state), Georgia to the north, the Atlantic ...

, while drier conditions are observed in

, the Ohio Valley,

and the

Rocky Mountains The Rocky Mountains, also known as the Rockies, are a major mountain range and the largest mountain system in North America. The Rocky Mountains stretch in great-circle distance, straight-line distance from the northernmost part of Western Can ...

. Study of more recent weather events over California and the southwestern United States indicate that there is a variable relationship between El Niño and above-average precipitation, as it strongly depends on the strength of the El Niño event and other factors. Though it has been historically associated with high rainfall in California, the effects of El Niño depend more strongly on the "flavor" of El Niño than its presence or absence, as only "persistent El Niño" events lead to consistently high rainfall. To the north across

Alaska Alaska ( ) is a non-contiguous U.S. state on the northwest extremity of North America. Part of the Western United States region, it is one of the two non-contiguous U.S. states, alongside Hawaii. Alaska is also considered to be the north ...

, La Niña events lead to drier than normal conditions, while El Niño events do not have a correlation towards dry or wet conditions. During El Niño events, increased precipitation is expected in California due to a more southerly, zonal,

storm track ''Storm Track'' was the first magazine for and about storm chasing. The magazine was in circulation between 1977 and 2002. History and profile ''Storm Track'' was started in 1977 by chasing pioneer David K. Hoadley, David Hoadley following an ...

. During La Niña, increased precipitation is diverted into the

due to a more northerly storm track. During La Niña events, the storm track shifts far enough northward to bring wetter than normal winter conditions (in the form of increased snowfall) to the Midwestern states, as well as hot and dry summers. During the El Niño portion of ENSO, increased precipitation falls along the Gulf coast and Southeast due to a stronger than normal, and more southerly, polar jet stream.

Isthmus of Tehuantepec

The synoptic condition for the Tehuantepecer, a violent mountain-gap wind in between the mountains of

Mexico Mexico, officially the United Mexican States, is a country in North America. It is the northernmost country in Latin America, and borders the United States to the north, and Guatemala and Belize to the southeast; while having maritime boundar ...

and

Guatemala Guatemala, officially the Republic of Guatemala, is a country in Central America. It is bordered to the north and west by Mexico, to the northeast by Belize, to the east by Honduras, and to the southeast by El Salvador. It is hydrologically b ...

, is associated with high-pressure system forming in Sierra Madre of Mexico in the wake of an advancing cold front, which causes winds to accelerate through the

Isthmus of Tehuantepec The Isthmus of Tehuantepec () is an isthmus in Mexico. It represents the shortest distance between the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean. Before the opening of the Panama Canal, it was a major overland transport route known simply as the T ...

. Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the westward extension of the Azores-Bermuda high pressure system. Wind magnitude is greater during El Niño years than during La Niña years, due to the more frequent cold frontal incursions during El Niño winters. Tehuantepec winds reach to , and on rare occasions . The wind's direction is from the north to north-northeast. It leads to a localized acceleration of the

trade wind The trade winds or easterlies are permanent east-to-west prevailing winds that flow in the Earth's equatorial region. The trade winds blow mainly from the northeast in the Northern Hemisphere and from the southeast in the Southern Hemisphere, ...

s in the region, and can enhance

thunderstorm A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm or a lightning storm, is a storm characterized by the presence of lightning and its acoustics, acoustic effect on the Earth's atmosphere, known as thunder. Relatively weak thunderstorm ...

activity when it interacts with the

Intertropical Convergence Zone The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ , or ICZ), known by sailors as the doldrums or the calms because of its monotonous windless weather, is the area where the northeast and the southeast trade winds converge. It encircles Earth near the t ...

. The effects can last from a few hours to six days. Between 1942 and 1957, La Niña had an impact that caused isotope changes in the plants of Baja California, and that had helped scientists to study his impact.

Pacific islands

During an El Niño event, New Zealand tends to experience stronger or more frequent westerly winds during their summer, which leads to an elevated risk of drier than normal conditions along the east coast. There is more rain than usual though on New Zealand's West Coast, because of the barrier effect of the North Island mountain ranges and the Southern Alps. Fiji generally experiences drier than normal conditions during an El Niño, which can lead to drought becoming established over the Islands. However, the main impacts on the island nation is felt about a year after the event becomes established. Within the Samoan Islands, below average rainfall and higher than normal temperatures are recorded during El Niño events, which can lead to droughts and forest fires on the islands. Other impacts include a decrease in the sea level, possibility of coral bleaching in the marine environment and an increased risk of a tropical cyclone affecting Samoa. In the late winter and spring during El Niño events, drier than average conditions can be expected in Hawaii. On Guam during El Niño years, dry season precipitation averages below normal, but the probability of a tropical cyclone is more than triple what is normal, so extreme short duration rainfall events are possible. On American Samoa during El Niño events, precipitation averages about 10 percent above normal, while La Niña events are associated with precipitation averaging about 10 percent below normal.

South America

The effects of El Niño in South America are direct and strong. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern

and

, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. Because El Niño's warm pool feeds thunderstorms above, it creates increased rainfall across the east-central and eastern Pacific Ocean, including several portions of the South American west coast. The effects of El Niño in South America are direct and stronger than in North America. An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern

and

, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. The effects during the months of February, March, and April may become critical along the west coast of

, El Niño reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water that sustains large

fish A fish (: fish or fishes) is an aquatic animal, aquatic, Anamniotes, anamniotic, gill-bearing vertebrate animal with swimming fish fin, fins and craniate, a hard skull, but lacking limb (anatomy), limbs with digit (anatomy), digits. Fish can ...

populations, which in turn sustain abundant sea birds, whose droppings support the

fertilizer A fertilizer or fertiliser is any material of natural or synthetic origin that is applied to soil or to plant tissues to supply plant nutrients. Fertilizers may be distinct from liming materials or other non-nutrient soil amendments. Man ...

industry. The reduction in upwelling leads to fish kills off the shore of Peru. The local fishing industry along the affected coastline can suffer during long-lasting El Niño events. Peruvian fisheries collapsed during the 1970s due to overfishing following the 1972 El Niño Peruvian anchoveta reduction. The fisheries were previously the world's largest, however, this collapse led to the decline of these fisheries. During the 1982–83 event,

jack mackerel Jack mackerels or saurels are marine ray-finned fish in the genus ''Trachurus'' of the family Carangidae. The name of the genus derives from the Greek (language), Greek words ''trachys'' ("rough") and ''oura'' ("tail"). Some species, such as ''T ...

and anchoveta populations were reduced,

scallops Scallop () is a common name that encompasses various species of marine bivalve molluscs in the taxonomic family Pectinidae, the scallops. However, the common name "scallop" is also sometimes applied to species in other closely related famili ...

increased in warmer water, but hake followed cooler water down the continental slope, while

shrimp A shrimp (: shrimp (American English, US) or shrimps (British English, UK)) is a crustacean with an elongated body and a primarily Aquatic locomotion, swimming mode of locomotion – typically Decapods belonging to the Caridea or Dendrobranchi ...

and sardines moved southward, so some catches decreased while others increased. Horse mackerel have increased in the region during warm events. Shifting locations and types of fish due to changing conditions create challenges for the fishing industry. Peruvian sardines have moved during El Niño events to Chilean areas. Other conditions provide further complications, such as the government of Chile in 1991 creating restrictions on the fishing areas for self-employed fishermen and industrial fleets. Southern

and northern

Argentina Argentina, officially the Argentine Republic, is a country in the southern half of South America. It covers an area of , making it the List of South American countries by area, second-largest country in South America after Brazil, the fourt ...

also experience wetter than normal conditions during El Niño years, but mainly during the spring and early summer. Central Chile receives a mild winter with large rainfall, and the Peruvian-Bolivian

Altiplano The Altiplano (Spanish language, Spanish for "high plain"), Collao (Quechuan languages, Quechua and Aymara language, Aymara: Qullaw, meaning "place of the Qulla people, Qulla") or Andean Plateau, in west-central South America, is the most extens ...

is sometimes exposed to unusual winter snowfall events. Drier and hotter weather occurs in parts of the Amazon River Basin,

, and

Central America Central America is a subregion of North America. Its political boundaries are defined as bordering Mexico to the north, Colombia to the southeast, the Caribbean to the east, and the Pacific Ocean to the southwest. Central America is usually ...

. During a time of La Niña, drought affects the coastal regions of Peru and Chile. From December to February,

northern Brazil The North Region of Brazil ( ) is the largest region of Brazil, accounting for 45.27% of the national territory. It has the second-lowest population of any region in the country, and accounts for a minor percentage of the national GDP. The regio ...

is wetter than normal. La Niña causes higher than normal rainfall in the central

Andes The Andes ( ), Andes Mountains or Andean Mountain Range (; ) are the List of longest mountain chains on Earth, longest continental mountain range in the world, forming a continuous highland along the western edge of South America. The range ...

, which in turn causes catastrophic flooding on the Llanos de Mojos of

Beni Department Beni (), sometimes El Beni, is a northeastern Departments of Bolivia, department of Bolivia, in the lowlands region of the country. It is the second-largest department in the country (after Santa Cruz), covering 213,564 square kilometers (82,458 ...

, Bolivia. Such flooding is documented from 1853, 1865, 1872, 1873, 1886, 1895, 1896, 1907, 1921, 1928, 1929 and 1931.

Galápagos Islands

The

Galápagos Islands The Galápagos Islands () are an archipelago of volcanic islands in the Eastern Pacific, located around the equator, west of the mainland of South America. They form the Galápagos Province of the Republic of Ecuador, with a population of sli ...

are a chain of volcanic islands, nearly 600 miles west of Ecuador, South America. in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. These islands support a wide diversity of terrestrial and marine species. The ecosystem is based on the normal trade winds which influence upwelling of cold, nutrient rich waters to the islands. During an El Niño event the trade winds weaken and sometimes blow from west to east, which causes the Equatorial current to weaken, raising surface water temperatures and decreasing nutrients in waters surrounding the Galápagos. El Niño causes a trophic cascade which impacts entire ecosystems starting with primary producers and ending with critical animals such as sharks, penguins, and seals. The effects of El Niño can become detrimental to populations that often starve and die back during these years. Rapid evolutionary adaptations are displayed amongst animal groups during El Niño years to mitigate El Niño conditions.

History

In geologic timescales

Evidence is also strong for El Niño events during the early

Holocene The Holocene () is the current geologic time scale, geological epoch, beginning approximately 11,700 years ago. It follows the Last Glacial Period, which concluded with the Holocene glacial retreat. The Holocene and the preceding Pleistocene to ...

epoch 10,000 years ago. Different modes of ENSO-like events have been registered in paleoclimatic archives, showing different triggering methods, feedbacks and environmental responses to the geological, atmospheric and oceanographic characteristics of the time. These paleorecords can be used to provide a qualitative basis for conservation practices. Scientists have also found chemical signatures of warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall caused by El Niño in coral specimens that are around 13,000 years old. In a paleoclimate study published in 2024, the authors suggest that El Niños had a strong influence on Earth's hothouse climate during the Permian-Triassic extinction event. The increasing intensity and duration of El Niño events were associated with active volcanism, which resulted in the dieback of vegetation, an increase in the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, a significant warming and disturbances in the circulation of air masses.

During human history

ENSO conditions have occurred at two- to seven-year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. El Niño may have led to the demise of the Moche and other pre-Columbian Peruvian cultures. A recent study suggests a strong El Niño effect between 1789 and 1793 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The 1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people. The phenomenon had long been of interest because of its effects on the

guano Guano (Spanish from ) is the accumulated excrement of seabirds or bats. Guano is a highly effective fertiliser due to the high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, all key nutrients essential for plant growth. Guano was also, to a le ...

industry and other enterprises that depend on biological productivity of the sea. It is recorded that as early as 1822, cartographer Joseph Lartigue, of the French frigate ''La Clorinde'' under Baron Mackau, noted the "counter-current" and its usefulness for traveling southward along the Peruvian coast. Charles Todd, in 1888, suggested droughts in India and Australia tended to occur at the same time; Norman Lockyer noted the same in 1904. An El Niño connection with flooding was reported in 1894 by Victor Eguiguren (1852–1919) and in 1895 by Federico Alfonso Pezet (1859–1929). In 1924, Gilbert Walker (for whom the Walker circulation is named) coined the term "Southern Oscillation". He and others (including Norwegian-American meteorologist Jacob Bjerknes) are generally credited with identifying the El Niño effect. The major 1982–83 El Niño led to an upsurge of interest from the scientific community. The period 1990–95 was unusual in that El Niños have rarely occurred in such rapid succession. An especially intense El Niño event in 1998 caused an estimated 16% of the world's reef systems to die. The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. Since then, mass

has become common worldwide, with all regions having suffered "severe bleaching". Around 1525, when

Francisco Pizarro Francisco Pizarro, Marquess of the Atabillos (; ; – 26 June 1541) was a Spanish ''conquistador'', best known for his expeditions that led to the Spanish conquest of the Inca Empire. Born in Trujillo, Cáceres, Trujillo, Spain, to a poor fam ...

made landfall in Peru, he noted rainfall in the deserts, the first written record of the impacts of El Niño.

Related patterns

Madden–Julian oscillation

Link to the El Niño-Southern oscillation

Pacific decadal oscillation

Mechanisms

Pacific Meridional Mode

References

External links

* * * Provides current phase of ENSO according to the Australian interpretation. {{DEFAULTSORT:El Nino-Southern Oscillation Tropical meteorology Physical oceanography Natural history of the Americas Natural history of Oceania Effects of climate change Regional climate effects Weather hazards Spanish words and phrases Climate oscillations

Definition and terminology

Fundamentals

Bjerknes feedback

Walker circulation

Southern Oscillation

Three phases of sea surface temperature

Neutral phase

El Niño phase

La Niña phase

Transitional phases

Variations

ENSO Modoki

ENSO Costero

Monitoring and declaration of conditions

Effects of ENSO on global climate

Climate change

Investigations regarding tipping points

Effects of ENSO on weather patterns

Tropical cyclones

Remote influence on tropical Atlantic Ocean

Impacts on humans and ecosystems

Economic impacts

Health and social impacts

Ecological consequences

Coral bleaching

Impacts by region

Africa

Antarctica

Asia

Australia

Europe

North America

Isthmus of Tehuantepec

Pacific islands

South America

Galápagos Islands

History

In geologic timescales

During human history

Related patterns

Madden–Julian oscillation

Link to the El Niño-Southern oscillation

Pacific decadal oscillation

Mechanisms

Pacific Meridional Mode

See also

References

External links