Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE) is a 21st-century variation on
Component ERA
Component ERA or ERC is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James. It attempts to forecast a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) from the number of hits and walks allowed rather than the standard formula of average number of earned runs per nine ...
, one of an increasing number of
baseball
Baseball is a bat-and-ball sport played between two teams of nine players each, taking turns batting and fielding. The game occurs over the course of several plays, with each play generally beginning when a player on the fielding tea ...
sabermetrics
Sabermetrics, or originally SABRmetrics, is the empirical analysis of baseball, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity. Sabermetricians collect and summarize the relevant data from this in-game activity to answer specific ques ...
that fall under the umbrella of
defense independent pitching statistics. DICE was created by
Clay Dreslough
Clay Dreslough is an American video game designer. He is the creator of the ''Baseball Mogul'' and '' Football Mogul'' computer sports games, and is the co-founder and president of Sports Mogul, Inc. He was born in Boston, Massachusetts and gra ...
in 2001.
The formula for Defense-Independent Component ERA (DICE) is:
:
In that equation, "HR" is home runs, "BB" is walks, "HBP" is hit batters, "K" is strikeouts, and "IP" is innings pitched. That equation gives a number that is better at predicting a pitcher's ERA in the following year than the pitcher's actual ERA in the current year.
Component ERA was created by
Bill James
George William James (born October 5, 1949) is an American baseball writer, historian, and statistician whose work has been widely influential. Since 1977, James has written more than two dozen books devoted to baseball history and statistics. ...
to create a more accurate way of evaluating pitchers than
earned run average
In baseball statistics, earned run average (ERA) is the average of earned runs allowed by a pitcher per nine innings pitched (i.e. the traditional length of a game). It is determined by dividing the number of earned runs allowed by the number ...
(ERA). Whereas ERA is significantly affected by luck (such as whether the component hits are allowed consecutively), Component ERA eliminates this factor and assigns a weight to each of the recorded 'components' of a pitchers performance. For CERA, these are
singles
Singles are people not in a committed relationship.
Singles may also refer to:
Film and television
* ''Singles'' (miniseries), a 1984 Australian television series
* ''Singles'' (1992 film), written and directed by Cameron Crowe
* ''Singles'' ...
,
doubles,
triples,
home run
In baseball, a home run (abbreviated HR) is scored when the ball is hit in such a way that the batter is able to circle the bases and reach home plate safely in one play without any errors being committed by the defensive team. A home run i ...
s,
walks and
hit batters.
DICE is an improvement on CERA that removes the contribution of the pitcher's defense, instead estimate a pitcher's ERA from the components of his pitching record that don't involve defense. These are home runs, walks, hit batters and
strikeout
In baseball or softball, a strikeout (or strike-out) occurs when a batter accumulates three strikes during a time at bat. It usually means that the batter is out. A strikeout is a statistic recorded for both pitchers and batters, and is deno ...
s.
References
Pitching statistics
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