Inverse Dependency Ratio - World Regions - 1950–2050

Local Demographic Window Phases in Less Developed Countries

The Demographic Window is defined to be that period of time in a nation's

demographic Demography () is the statistical study of populations, especially human beings. Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups defined by criteria such as edu ...

evolution when the proportion of

population Population typically refers to the number of people in a single area, whether it be a city or town, region, country, continent, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size of the resident population within their jurisdiction using a ...

of working age group is particularly prominent. This occurs when the demographic architecture of a population becomes younger and the percentage of people able to work reaches its height. Typically, the demographic

window of opportunity A window of opportunity (also called a margin of opportunity or critical window) is a period of time during which some action can be taken that will achieve a desired outcome. Once this period is over, or the "window is closed", the specified ...

lasts for 30–40 years depending upon the country. Because of the mechanical link between fertility levels and age structures, the timing and duration of this period is closely associated to those of fertility decline: when

birth rates The birth rate for a given period is the total number of live human births per 1,000 population divided by the length of the period in years. The number of live births is normally taken from a universal registration system for births; populati ...

fall, the age pyramid first shrinks with gradually lower proportions of young population (under 15s) and the

dependency ratio The dependency ratio is an age-population ratio of those typically not in the labor force (the ''dependent'' part ages 0 to 14 and 65+) and those typically in the labor force (the ''productive'' part ages 15 to 64). It is used to measure the press ...

decreases as is happening (or happened) in various parts of

East Asia East Asia is the eastern region of Asia, which is defined in both geographical and ethno-cultural terms. The modern states of East Asia include China, Japan, Mongolia, North Korea, South Korea, and Taiwan. China, North Korea, South Korea and ...

over several decades. After a few decades, low fertility however causes the population to get older and the growing proportion of elderly people inflates again the dependency ratio as is observed in present-day

Europe Europe is a large peninsula conventionally considered a continent in its own right because of its great physical size and the weight of its history and traditions. Europe is also considered a Continent#Subcontinents, subcontinent of Eurasia ...

. The exact technical boundaries of definition may vary. The UN Population Department has defined it as period when the proportion of children and youth under 15 years falls below 30 per cent and the proportion of people 65 years and older is still below 15 per cent. The

Global Data Lab Global means of or referring to a globe and may also refer to: Entertainment * ''Global'' (Paul van Dyk album), 2003 * ''Global'' (Bunji Garlin album), 2007 * ''Global'' (Humanoid album), 1989 * ''Global'' (Todd Rundgren album), 2015 * Bruno ...

released an alternative classification of phases:Crombach, L. and J. Smits, "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries" ''Social Indicators Research'', 2021

's demographic window lasted from 1950 to 2000. It began in

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...

in 1990 and is expected to last until 2015.

India India, officially the Republic of India (Hindi: ), is a country in South Asia. It is the seventh-largest country by area, the second-most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. Bounded by the Indian Ocean on the so ...

is expected to enter the demographic window in 2010, which may last until the middle of the present century. Much of

Africa Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia in both cases. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area ...

will not enter the demographic window until 2045 or later. Societies who have entered the demographic window have smaller

(ratio of dependents to working-age population) and therefore the demographic potential for high economic growth as favorable dependency ratios tend to boost savings and investments in human capital. But this so-called "demographic bonus" (or

demographic dividend Demographic dividend, as defined by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), is "the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is large ...

) remains only a potential advantage as low participation rates (for instance among women) or rampant unemployment may limit the impact of favorable age structures. For a list of demographic windows of other nations check the UN link in References.

References

{{reflist
Proceedings of the United Nations Expert Meeting on World Population to 2300
*Bloom, David E., David Canning and Jaypee Sevilla (2003)- The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change.
A CICRED Policy Paper on implications of age structural transitions
Demographic economics Demographics Ageing

See also

References