Climate change in Pakistan
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Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to
climate change In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to E ...
. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the
climate of Pakistan Pakistan's climate is a continental type of climate, characterized by extreme variations in temperature, both seasonally and daily, because it is located on a great landmass north of the Tropic of Cancer (between latitudes 25° and 37° N). Very ...
has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people. In addition to increased heat, drought and
extreme weather Extreme weather or extreme climate events includes unexpected, unusual, severe, or unseasonal weather; weather at the extremes of the historical distribution—the range that has been seen in the past. Often, extreme events are based on a locat ...
in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the
Himalayas The Himalayas, or Himalaya (; ; ), is a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The range has some of the planet's highest peaks, including the very highest, Mount Everest. Over 100 ...
has impacted some of the important
rivers of Pakistan This is a list of rivers wholly or partly in Pakistan, organised geographically by river basin, from west to east. Tributaries are listed from the mouth to the source. The longest and the largest river in Pakistan is the Indus River. Around two-t ...
. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change.


Greenhouse gas emissions

Pakistan's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are less than 1% of the world total, and GHG emissions per person, at 2 tonnes per year, are less than half the global average. In 2015 GHG emissions totalled 408 million tonnes of CO2eq; of which 43% was from
agriculture in Pakistan Agriculture is considered the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which relies heavily on its major crops. Pakistan's principal natural resources are arable land and water. Agriculture accounts for about 18.9% of Pakistan's GDP and employs about ...
; and 46% from
energy in Pakistan The energy policy of Pakistan is formulated and determined by the federal, provincial, and local institutional entities in Pakistan, which address the issues of energy production, distribution, and consumption of energy, such as gas mileage and ...
, such as burning fuel for heat, to power transport, and generate electricity. Agricultural GHG are mostly
methane Methane ( , ) is a chemical compound with the chemical formula (one carbon atom bonded to four hydrogen atoms). It is a group-14 hydride, the simplest alkane, and the main constituent of natural gas. The relative abundance of methane on Eart ...
and
nitrous oxide Nitrous oxide (dinitrogen oxide or dinitrogen monoxide), commonly known as laughing gas, nitrous, or nos, is a chemical compound, an oxide of nitrogen with the formula . At room temperature, it is a colourless non-flammable gas, and has a ...
. Methane comes from belching cattle, sheep and goats; manure management; and rice cultivation. Nitrous oxide is mainly from agricultural soils due to the application of synthetic fertilizers, farmyard manure, and crop residue mixes after burning. Energy GHG is mostly
carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide (chemical formula ) is a chemical compound made up of molecules that each have one carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms. It is found in the gas state at room temperature. In the air, carbon dioxide is transpar ...
: in 2019 burning fossil gas, coal and oil each emitted around 80 million tonnes. It has been suggested that stricter measures against air pollution in Pakistan might include actions that would also limit GHG emissions, such as increasing tax on motor fuels. In 2020
Prime Minister Imran Khan Imran Ahmed Khan Niazi ( ur}; born 5 October 1952) is a Pakistani politician and former Cricket captain who served as the 22nd Prime Minister of Pakistan from August 2018 to until April 2022, when he was ousted through a no-confidenc ...
said that no more
coal-fired power stations in Pakistan Coal is a combustible black or brownish-black sedimentary rock, formed as rock strata called coal seams. Coal is mostly carbon with variable amounts of other elements, chiefly hydrogen, sulfur, oxygen, and nitrogen. Coal is formed when de ...
would be given permits. However coal-fired power stations which have already been given permits are expected to be constructed. As of 2021, Pakistan has not declared a net-zero year goal, however, it has committed to cut 50% of projected emissions by 2030. In 2022 Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif said that more solar,
wind Wind is the natural movement of air or other gases relative to a planet's surface. Winds occur on a range of scales, from thunderstorm flows lasting tens of minutes, to local breezes generated by heating of land surfaces and lasting a few hou ...
and hydropower should be built to reduce the fossil fuel import bill.


Impacts on the natural environment


Temperature and weather changes

While the
effects of climate change The effects of climate change impact the physical environment, ecosystems and human societies. The environmental effects of climate change are broad and far-reaching. They affect the water cycle, oceans, sea and land ice (glaciers), sea level ...
are highly region-specific, it can be said with a high degree of confidence that mean surface temperatures are rising and
extreme weather Extreme weather or extreme climate events includes unexpected, unusual, severe, or unseasonal weather; weather at the extremes of the historical distribution—the range that has been seen in the past. Often, extreme events are based on a locat ...
events will increase over time. These changes will disrupt expected environmental processes and human activity. The factors thought to affect climate change can exhibit variability too. Chaotic and periodic variations have been observed over different regions of the Earth and varying spans of time. In May 2022, a severe heatwave was recorded in Pakistan and India. The temperature reached 51°C. Climate change makes such heatwaves 100 times more likely. Without climate change heatwaves, more severe that those who occurred in 2010 are expected to arrive 1 time in 312 years. Now they are expected to occur every 3 years. The climate change projections of the
IPCC Sixth Assessment Report The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess scientific, technical, and socio-economic information concerning climate change. Three ...
for South Asia as a whole suggest that heatwaves and humid heat stress will be more intense and frequent; and that both annual and summer monsoon rainfall will increase, with more variation by year. Consequently, this will significantly impact the productivity and efficiency of water-dependent sectors such as agriculture and energy. Text was copied from this source, which is available under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO (CC BY 3.0 IGO) license. General future projections for Pakistan's climate are: * Pakistan’s projected temperature increase is expected to be higher than the global average. * Projected temperature increase in northern parts is expected to be higher than the southern parts of the country. * The frequency of hot days and hot nights is expected to increase significantly. * Pakistan’s rainfall projections do not indicate any systematic changing trends. * An increasing trend in the rainfall over the Upper Indus Basin and decreasing trend in the Lower Indus Basin.


Extreme weather events

Extreme weather, such as
cyclones In meteorology, a cyclone () is a large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from above (opposite to an anti ...
or intense
monsoons A monsoon () is traditionally a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation associated with annual latitudinal oscil ...
are likely to increase in
Pakistan Pakistan ( ur, ), officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ( ur, , label=none), is a country in South Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of almost 24 ...
because of increased sea and atmospheric temperature. Government projections, highlight considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, coupled with erratic monsoon rains causing frequent and intense
floods A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrolog ...
and droughts. For example, between 1998 and 2018 Pakistan reported more than 150 extreme weather events. In 2022 catastrophic floods hit the country. The main causes were increased precipitation and glaciers melting fueled by climate change. One third of the country was under water. According to Climate minister Sherry Rehman this "has exceeded every boundary, every norm we've seen in the past,". 33 million people were affected.


Sea level rise

Sea level rise Globally, sea levels are rising due to human-caused climate change. Between 1901 and 2018, the globally averaged sea level rose by , or 1–2 mm per year on average.IPCC, 2019Summary for Policymakers InIPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cry ...
along the
Karachi Karachi (; ur, ; ; ) is the most populous city in Pakistan and 12th most populous city in the world, with a population of over 20 million. It is situated at the southern tip of the country along the Arabian Sea coast. It is the former cap ...
coast is estimated at 1.1 mm per year (mm/year) for the period 1856–2000 according to the
National Institute of Oceanography, Pakistan The National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), ( ur, ), is a department of the Government of Pakistan and a major research institute of Ministry of Science and Technology (Pakistan). The NIO is a science and research executive organization locate ...
. According to IPCC estimates, the mean rate of global average sea level rise was 1.7 mm/year between 1901 and 2010, and 3.2 mm/year between 1993 and 2010. This change in sea level is thought to be due to two major processes, the thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of glacier mass. It is difficult to predict SLR for the entire region of Pakistan since data is limited at the country level. While IPCC estimates predict a global mean SLR of 0.2–0.6 m by 2100, a rise of 0.7 m is predicted for the region of South Asia (which includes the Pakistan coast). This SLR will most likely affect low-lying coastal areas south of Karachi toward Keti Bander and I ndus River delta more than other regions of Pakistan. The impact of SLR on coastal areas and its resources may already be evident in the inundation of low-lying areas, degradation of mangrove forests, declining drinking water quality, and decrease in fish and shrimp productivity in those regions. The vulnerability of the
Sindh Sindh (; ; ur, , ; historically romanized as Sind) is one of the four provinces of Pakistan. Located in the southeastern region of the country, Sindh is the third-largest province of Pakistan by land area and the second-largest province ...
coastal zone is considered higher than the
Balochistan Balochistan ( ; bal, بلۏچستان; also romanised as Baluchistan and Baluchestan) is a historical region in Western and South Asia, located in the Iranian plateau's far southeast and bordering the Indian Plate and the Arabian Sea coastline. ...
coastal areas because of the former's flat tidal topography and higher population concentration with industrial activity along coastal areas (such as Karachi). This rise in sea level is also expected to increase the rate of
soil erosion Soil erosion is the denudation or wearing away of the upper layer of soil. It is a form of soil degradation. This natural process is caused by the dynamic activity of erosive agents, that is, water, ice (glaciers), snow, air (wind), plants, and ...
along the coastal belt. An 80% reduction in the amount of river sediment as compared to the early 20th century is reported and attributed to the extensive
damming A dam is a barrier that stops or restricts the flow of surface water or underground streams. Reservoirs created by dams not only suppress floods but also provide water for activities such as irrigation, human consumption, industrial use, a ...
of the Indus River. The delta undergoes a natural
subsidence Subsidence is a general term for downward vertical movement of the Earth's surface, which can be caused by both natural processes and human activities. Subsidence involves little or no horizontal movement, which distinguishes it from slope move ...
process that ranges from a "sinking" of less than 1 mm/year to more than 10 mm/year. This rate is exceeded due to groundwater and petroleum extraction. Thus, the erosion, subsidence and lack of sedimentation are resulting in the shrinking and sinking of the Indus River delta. According to an NGO head, 3 million acres of land containing many villages have been submerged in the coastal areas of the districts
Thatta Thatta ( sd, ٺٽو; ) is a city in the Pakistani province of Sindh. Thatta was the medieval capital of Sindh, and served as the seat of power for three successive dynasties. Thatta's historic significance has yielded several monuments in and ...
,
Badin Badin ( Sindhi and ur, ) is the main city and capital of Badin District in Sindh, Pakistan. It lies east of the Indus River. It is the 87th largest city in Pakistan. Badin is often called 'Sugar State' due to its production of sugar. Badin ...
and Sajawal over the past 40 years. This loss of has resulted in the migration of over 1 million people from these districts to urban centers like Karachi. They further claimed that the construction of dams and diversion of river water have worsened the situation.


Water resources

Water availability per capita is projected to decrease.


Glacier retreat

Glacial retreat The retreat of glaciers since 1850 affects the availability of fresh water for irrigation and domestic use, mountain recreation, animals and plants that depend on glacier-melt, and, in the longer term, the level of the oceans. Deglaciation occu ...
in parts of the
Himalayas The Himalayas, or Himalaya (; ; ), is a mountain range in Asia, separating the plains of the Indian subcontinent from the Tibetan Plateau. The range has some of the planet's highest peaks, including the very highest, Mount Everest. Over 100 ...
poses risks of
meltwater Meltwater is water released by the melting of snow or ice, including glacial ice, tabular icebergs and ice shelves over oceans. Meltwater is often found in the ablation zone of glaciers, where the rate of snow cover is reducing. Meltwater can be ...
flooding. In 2020, melting of a glacier in
Shispare Shispare ( ur, ) is one of the high mountain peaks of the Batura Muztagh, the westernmost subrange of the Karakoram range in the Gilgit-Baltistan region of Pakistan. Alternate forms of the name of this peak include Shispare Sar and Shisparé ...
led to evacuations of the village of Hassanabad, Hunza. A 2014
remote sensing Remote sensing is the acquisition of information about an object or phenomenon without making physical contact with the object, in contrast to in situ or on-site observation. The term is applied especially to acquiring information about Earth ...
study suggested the situation of glaciers in Pakistan varies between regions of the country. The devastating 2022 floods were in part driven by glaciers melting.


Impacts on people


Economic impacts

The poverty rate of Pakistan, when estimated at $2 per day
purchasing power parity Purchasing power parity (PPP) is the measurement of prices in different countries that uses the prices of specific goods to compare the absolute purchasing power of the countries' currency, currencies. PPP is effectively the ratio of the price of ...
, exceeds 50% of the total population with stark
provincial Provincial may refer to: Government & Administration * Provincial capitals, an administrative sub-national capital of a country * Provincial city (disambiguation) * Provincial minister (disambiguation) * Provincial Secretary, a position in Can ...
disparities. This high prevalence of poverty, coupled with the lack of and access to resources, places the country in the low
human development Human development may refer to: * Development of the human body * Developmental psychology * Human development (economics) * Human Development Index, an index used to rank countries by level of human development * Human evolution, the prehistoric ...
category, ranked 146 out of 187 countries, well below the average human development index value compared to other South Asian countries. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) for the Asia region noted that the sensitivity of agriculture-dependent economies (such as Pakistan) toward climate change arises from their distinct geography, demographic trends, socioeconomic factors, and lack of adaptive capacity that when taken together, determine the
climate change vulnerability Climate change vulnerability (or climate vulnerability or climate risk vulnerability) is defined as the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans but also to natural systems (ecosystems). Hu ...
profile of the country.


Agriculture

Future projections for Pakistan are that major
crop yields In agriculture, the yield is a measurement of the amount of a crop grown, or product such as wool, meat or milk produced, per unit area of land. The seed ratio is another way of calculating yields. Innovations, such as the use of fertilizer, the c ...
such as of wheat and rice are expected to decrease significantly. According to research led by Dr. Adil Najam at the
Lahore University of Management Sciences Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) () is a private research university, located in Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan. In 1983, Syed Babar Ali, a renowned businessman in Pakistan, recognized the shortage of qualified managers in the countr ...
, by 2040 the cost of climate change to
agriculture in Pakistan Agriculture is considered the backbone of Pakistan's economy, which relies heavily on its major crops. Pakistan's principal natural resources are arable land and water. Agriculture accounts for about 18.9% of Pakistan's GDP and employs about ...
is likely to be up to 7% of productivity but that good
climate adaptation Climate change adaptation is the process of adjusting to current or expected effects of climate change.IPCC, 2022Annex II: Glossary öller, V., R. van Diemen, J.B.R. Matthews, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, J.S. Fuglestvedt, A. Reisinger (eds.) InClimat ...
practices could result in a net productivity gain of up to 40%. The
2022 Pakistan floods From 14 June to October 2022, floods in Pakistan killed 1,739 people, and caused ₨ 3.2 trillion ($14.9 billion) of damage and ₨ 3.3 trillion ($15.2 billion) of economic losses. The immediate causes of the floods were heavier than usual mo ...
mainly caused by increased precipitation and glaciers melting fueled by climate change, destroyed around 50% of the crops of Pakistan what can lead to food shortages.


Migration

Due to extreme
weather Weather is the state of the atmosphere, describing for example the degree to which it is hot or cold, wet or dry, calm or stormy, clear or cloudy. On Earth, most weather phenomena occur in the lowest layer of the planet's atmosphere, the ...
and uncertain
economic An economy is an area of the Production (economics), production, Distribution (economics), distribution and trade, as well as Consumption (economics), consumption of Goods (economics), goods and Service (economics), services. In general, it is ...
outcomes, rural communities in
Pakistan Pakistan ( ur, ), officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ( ur, , label=none), is a country in South Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of almost 24 ...
have been displaced in large numbers to
major cities The United Nations uses three definitions for what constitutes a city, as not all cities in all jurisdictions are classified using the same criteria. Cities may be defined as the cities proper, the extent of their urban area, or their metropo ...
. Experts expect 20% of the
population Population typically refers to the number of people in a single area, whether it be a city or town, region, country, continent, or the world. Governments typically quantify the size of the resident population within their jurisdiction using a ...
to move to major cities; current migration patterns included 700,000 people a year moving from rural to urban environments. Larger estimates, including major displacements because of
extreme weather Extreme weather or extreme climate events includes unexpected, unusual, severe, or unseasonal weather; weather at the extremes of the historical distribution—the range that has been seen in the past. Often, extreme events are based on a locat ...
, suggest as many as 20 million migrants from rural to urban communities since 2010.


Mitigation and adaptation


Mitigation

The most important targets for
mitigation Mitigation is the reduction of something harmful or the reduction of its harmful effects. It may refer to measures taken to reduce the harmful effects of hazards that remain ''in potentia'', or to manage harmful incidents that have already occur ...
efforts focused on reduction of GHG emissions are the energy and agriculture sectors. In the energy sector, integration of climate change and energy policy objectives is particularly important as today's investment such as in the
Thar coalfield The Thar coalfield is located in Thar Desert, Tharparkar District of Sindh province in Pakistan. The deposits—16th-largest coal reserves in the world, were discovered in 1991 by Geological Survey of Pakistan (GSP) and the United States Agency f ...
will "lock in" the infrastructure, fuel and technologies to be used for decades to come. Similarly, the building and transport infrastructure put in place today should meet the design needs of the future. Therefore, energy efficiency requirements in building codes and long-term transport planning will prove important.


Policies and legislation

The National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) of 2012, framed by the Government of Pakistan as the guiding policy document for the country on climate change, acknowledges the growing risk of future extreme natural hazards due to climate change. It further provides a picture of the vulnerabilities faced by individual sectors, ecological regions and socioeconomic classes. The major climate change threats identified in the report include: # Considerable increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. # Increased siltation of major dams caused by more frequent and intense
floods A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrolog ...
; # Rising temperatures resulting in enhanced heat and water-stressed conditions, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, leading to reduced agricultural productivity; # Further decrease in the already scanty forest cover, from too rapid change in climatic conditions to allow natural migration of adversely affected plant species; # Increased intrusion of saline
water Water (chemical formula ) is an inorganic, transparent, tasteless, odorless, and nearly colorless chemical substance, which is the main constituent of Earth's hydrosphere and the fluids of all known living organisms (in which it acts as a ...
in the Indus delta, adversely affecting coastal agriculture, mangroves and the breeding grounds of fish; # Threat to coastal areas due to projected
sea level rise Globally, sea levels are rising due to human-caused climate change. Between 1901 and 2018, the globally averaged sea level rose by , or 1–2 mm per year on average.IPCC, 2019Summary for Policymakers InIPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cry ...
and increased cyclonic activity due to higher sea surface temperatures; # Increased stress between upper riparian and lower riparian regions in relation to sharing of water resources; # Increased health risks and climate change induced migration.


Ministry of Climate Change

Various programs focused on adaptation and
mitigation Mitigation is the reduction of something harmful or the reduction of its harmful effects. It may refer to measures taken to reduce the harmful effects of hazards that remain ''in potentia'', or to manage harmful incidents that have already occur ...
have been developed within the Pakistani government. Since 2017, a cabinet-level ministry has led much of that capacity.


Reforestation

Pakistan Pakistan ( ur, ), officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ( ur, , label=none), is a country in South Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of almost 24 ...
has less than 6% total forest area. This, combined with climate change, exacerbates challenges such as
flooding A flood is an overflow of water ( or rarely other fluids) that submerges land that is usually dry. In the sense of "flowing water", the word may also be applied to the inflow of the tide. Floods are an area of study of the discipline hydrolog ...
,
heat waves A heat wave, or heatwave, is a period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity, especially in oceanic climate countries. While definitions vary, a heat wave is usually measured relative to the usual climate in the ...
, and
soil loss Soil retrogression and degradation are two regressive evolution processes associated with the loss of equilibrium of a stable soil. Retrogression is primarily due to soil erosion and corresponds to a phenomenon where succession reverts the land to ...
. Starting in 2014, the government started pursuing a Billion Tree Tsunami policy, and in 2018 that policy was extended to a 10 billion tree,
Plant for Pakistan Plant for Pakistan (Plant4Pakistan), also known as 10 Billion Tree Tsunami, is a five-year project to plant 10 billion trees across Pakistan from 2018 to 2023. Prime Minister Imran Khan started the drive on 2 September 2018 with approximately ...
program. During the
COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan The COVID-19 pandemic in Pakistan is part of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 () caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (). The virus was confirmed to have reached Pakistan on 26 February 2020, when two c ...
, government agencies continued their
reforestation Reforestation (occasionally, reafforestation) is the natural or intentional restocking of existing forests and woodlands (forestation) that have been depleted, usually through deforestation, but also after clearcutting. Management A debate ...
program, creating 60,000 jobs among the unemployed.


Society and culture


Public opinion

According to the BBC Climate Asia report, the majority of the Pakistani people surveyed claimed that climate change has heavily impacted their lives in the form of floods and droughts, and most importantly has affected the availability of resources such as energy and water. 53% of Pakistanis felt that their lives had become worse off than they were five years ago. Although the effects of climate change are evident, the survey found that the majority of the people were unaware of the meaning of climate change, and "ascribed changes in climate and extreme weather events to the will of God."


See also

* Plug-in electric vehicles in Pakistan *
2022 Pakistan floods From 14 June to October 2022, floods in Pakistan killed 1,739 people, and caused ₨ 3.2 trillion ($14.9 billion) of damage and ₨ 3.3 trillion ($15.2 billion) of economic losses. The immediate causes of the floods were heavier than usual mo ...


References


External links


Pakistan Burns At 50°C: Can It Turn The Heat Down On Climate Change? , Insight
CNA Insider, via Youtube, 2 August 2022. (Award-winning documentary)
Asian Developmental Bank Report on the Climate Change Profile of Pakistan

Climate change in the Northwest Frontier Province of Pakistan

Impact of climate change in PakistanIPCC Report on ''Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability.'' ''Chapter 10: Asia''

"Global Warming impacts & Effects on The Climate of Pakistan"
PakWeather.com 28 February 2015 {{Pakistan topics .C C
Pakistan Pakistan ( ur, ), officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ( ur, , label=none), is a country in South Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of almost 24 ...
Weather events in Pakistan
Pakistan Pakistan ( ur, ), officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan ( ur, , label=none), is a country in South Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, fifth-most populous country, with a population of almost 24 ...