Due to the
COVID-19 pandemic, a number of
non-pharmaceutical interventions colloquially known as
lockdown
A lockdown is a restriction policy for people, community or a country to stay where they are, usually due to specific risks (such as COVID-19) that could possibly harm the people if they move and interact freely.
The term is used for a prison ...
s (encompassing
stay-at-home orders,
curfew
A curfew is a government order specifying a time during which certain regulations apply. Typically, curfews order all people affected by them to ''not'' be in public places or on roads within a certain time frame, typically in the evening and ...
s,
quarantines, and similar societal restrictions) have been
implemented in numerous countries and territories around the world. These restrictions were established with the intention to reduce the spread of
SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes
COVID-19. By April 2020, about half of the world's population was under some form of lockdown, with more than 3.9 billion people in more than 90 countries or territories having been asked or ordered to stay at home by their governments. Although
similar disease control measures have been used for hundreds of years, the scale of those implemented in the 2020s is thought to be unprecedented.
Research and case studies have shown that lockdowns were generally effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19, therefore
flattening the curve.
The
World Health Organization's recommendation on curfews and lockdowns is that they should be very brief, short-term measures to reorganize, regroup, rebalance resources, and protect health workers who are exhausted. To achieve a balance between restrictions and normal life, the
WHO recommends a response to the pandemic that consists of strict personal hygiene, effective
contact tracing
In public health, contact tracing is the process of identifying persons who may have been exposed to an infected person ("contacts") and subsequent collection of further data to assess transmission. By tracing the contacts of infected individua ...
, and
isolating when ill.
Although many public health experts and economists supported lockdown restrictions,
citing greater long-term costs for allowing the disease to spread uncontrollably, pandemic restrictions have had health,
social, and
economic impacts, and have been met with
protests in some territories.
Efficacy
Several researchers, from modeling and demonstrated examples, have concluded that lockdowns are effective at reducing the spread of, and deaths caused by, COVID-19.
Lockdowns are thought to be most effective at containing or preventing COVID-19 community transmission, healthcare costs and deaths when implemented earlier, with greater stringency, and when not lifted too early.
There is disagreement about the size of the effect of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality.
A systematic review with
Johns Hopkins University by economists concluded that lockdowns as opposed to guidelines or medical advice had little to no effects on COVID-19 mortality.
The authors attribute the differences in findings to an earlier review to its inclusion of modelling studies.
A study investigating the spread based on studies of the most common symptoms such as loss of taste and smell in France, Italy and the UK showed a marked decrease in new symptoms just a few days after the start of confinement on the countries (
Italy and France) with the strongest lockdowns.
Modelling on the
United States pandemic suggested "the pandemic would have been almost completely suppressed from significantly taking off if the lockdown measures were implemented two weeks earlier" and that the second wave would have been less severe had the lockdown lasted another two weeks.
The stringent
lockdown in Hubei in early 2020 proved effective at controlling the
COVID-19 outbreak in China.
The relatively high number of cases and deaths in
Sweden, which has
kept much of its society open during the pandemic, when compared to its neighbours with comparable demographics
Norway,
Denmark and
Finland that did enforce lockdowns, is thought to be at least partly attributable to this difference in policy. Similarly, modelling on
Australian data concluded that achieving
zero community transmission through a strict lockdown lowers healthcare and economic costs compared to less stringent measures that allow transmission to continue, and warned that early relaxation of restrictions have greater costs.
This "
zero community transmission" approach was adopted in Australia, and a strict four month lockdown in the
state of Victoria
Victoria is a state in southeastern Australia. It is the second-smallest state with a land area of , the second most populated state (after New South Wales) with a population of over 6.5 million, and the most densely populated state in A ...
during an outbreak in Melbourne, combined with other measures, averted a wider outbreak in the country in 2020.
New Zealand and
Vietnam also adopted a "Zero-COVID" strategy throughout 2020 that included targeted lockdowns.
The emergence of the highly transmissible
SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in 2021 has led some commentators to suggest that although lockdowns continue to reduce the spread of COVID-19, they have become less effective at containing it. Lockdowns in
Australia and
Vietnam in response to Delta outbreaks proved less effective at containment than previous lockdowns were against the spread of
other variants.
Voluntary versus mandatory restrictions
One study led by an economist at the
University of Chicago found that involuntary lockdowns had little impact, with voluntary distancing making up nearly 90% of the fall in consumer traffic as people feared the virus itself. Similarly, a
National Bureau of Economic Research
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is an American private nonprofit research organization "committed to undertaking and disseminating unbiased economic research among public policymakers, business professionals, and the academic c ...
study found stay-at-home orders increased staying at home by just 5–10%. Another study from
Yale University found that most social distancing was voluntary, driven primarily by "media coverage of morbidity and mortality."
On the other hand, some studies have argued
that coercive measures probably decreased interactions, while accepting that most of the reduction may have been voluntary. One of those two studies, by Flaxman et al., has been criticized, among other things for having a country-specific adjustment factor, without which the model would predict a massive number of deaths for Sweden. One widely cited economic simulation asserting that shelter-in-place orders reduced total cases three-fold, however, held voluntary distancing constant. Another study found a 30% difference among border-counties where stay-at-home orders were imposed.
Another study that compared the impact of 'less restrictive interventions' on the spread of COVID-19 in
Sweden and
South Korea, with mandatory stay-at home orders in 8 other countries, such as
France and
Spain, did not find evidence for greater disease control in the countries with more restrictions. However, the findings of the study have been questioned due to its numerous limitations, including the small sample size of countries.
Some research has also found that an "advisory" approach is not adequate to control COVID-19 outbreaks. An analysis of an outbreak in
northern Italy found that an effective reduction in community transmission occurred during a strict national lockdown, and that earlier less stringent measures were ineffective at reducing mobility to a level low enough to reduce the spread of COVID-19.
Since the beginning of the pandemic,
Google has consistently collected data on movements, showing rapid declines in public activity long before legal restrictions were imposed. An April 2020 poll found that 93% of Americans voluntarily chose to only leave home when necessary, regardless of legal restrictions.
Reception
A February 2021 review of 348 articles concluded there was acknowledgement of the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions in controlling the spread of COVID-19.
However, current research also acknowledges high societal costs, though less than the costs of allowing the pandemic to spread without mitigation.
Related to epidemiology
Epidemiological evidence supports generalized non-pharmaceutical interventions to curb the spread of COVID-19.
During the early stages of the pandemic in
Europe and the
United States, statistical modeling which advised that restrictions were helpful to prevent a large number of deaths were used as the basis for lockdowns.
This includes an
Imperial College projection, led by epidemiologist
Neil Ferguson. Despite some criticisms, academics defended the Imperial projection as fundamentally sound, while admitting the code was "a buggy mess."
A notable opponent of lockdowns has included
Sweden's state epidemiologist
Anders Tegnell, who has frequently criticised the strategy. The
Swedish government's approach has included minimal restrictions and has been controversial in part due to the relatively
high death toll due to widespread transmission. However, the Swedish government began considering enacting a lockdown in early 2021.
While arguing in August 2020 for the need for further lockdowns in the United States, physicians Ranu Dhillon and
Abraar Karan argued for "smarter lockdowns" that impose restrictions on areas with high levels of transmission, and to increase support to vulnerable populations in these locations to offset the economic costs.
A number of medical experts signed the
Great Barrington Declaration
The Great Barrington Declaration was an open letter published in October 2020 in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns. It claimed harmful COVID-19 lockdowns could be avoided via the fringe notion of "focused protection", by which t ...
in October 2020 which called for "Focused Protection" on high risk groups and minimal restrictions on the general population to achieve herd immunity through COVID-19 infection. However, the majority of medical experts and the WHO have strongly criticised this proposed strategy for its lack of scientific basis and for being unethical.
The declaration has also attracted controversy over its funding and the authenticity of its signatures.
Related to social impacts
Some commentators have suggested that states' use of emergency powers to curb
freedom of assembly and
movement
Movement may refer to:
Common uses
* Movement (clockwork), the internal mechanism of a timepiece
* Motion, commonly referred to as movement
Arts, entertainment, and media
Literature
* "Movement" (short story), a short story by Nancy Fu ...
are
authoritarian
Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political ''status quo'', and reductions in the rule of law, separation of powers, and democratic voti ...
and may result in long-term
democratic backsliding
Democratic backsliding, also called autocratization, is the decline in the democratic characteristics of a political system, and is the opposite of democratization. Democracy is the most popular form of government, with more than half of the nati ...
. Centralization of power by political leadership in
Hungary,
Poland,
China and
Cambodia
Cambodia (; also Kampuchea ; km, កម្ពុជា, UNGEGN: ), officially the Kingdom of Cambodia, is a country located in the southern portion of the Indochinese Peninsula in Southeast Asia, spanning an area of , bordered by Thailand ...
in response to the COVID-19 pandemic have been cited as examples.
Some researchers have noted that COVID-19 pandemic restrictions have come with
mental health costs, compounded by those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic itself.
Due to their closure,
educational institutions
An educational institution is a place where people of different ages gain an education, including preschools, childcare, primary-elementary schools, secondary-high schools, and universities. They provide a large variety of learning environments an ...
worldwide transitioned to online learning. Teachers and faculty had to learn new ways to engage with students while in a COVID-19 pandemic. Examples of online teaching tools are podcasts, videos, and virtual classrooms.
UN Women warned in an April 2020 report that COVID-19 pandemic restrictions exacerbate
gender inequalities
Gender inequality is the social phenomenon in which men and women are not treated equally. The treatment may arise from distinctions regarding biology, psychology, or cultural norms prevalent in the society. Some of these distinctions are empi ...
and have led to an increase in
domestic violence
Domestic violence (also known as domestic abuse or family violence) is violence or other abuse that occurs in a domestic setting, such as in a marriage or cohabitation. ''Domestic violence'' is often used as a synonym for ''intimate partner v ...
.
Many women were being forced to 'lockdown' at home with their abusers at the same time that services to support survivors are being disrupted or made inaccessible.
For instance, in France there was around a 30% spike in cases of since the lockdown in March 2020.
Related to economic impacts
Some economists supported increased government funding for mitigation efforts, even at the cost of tolerating a very large economic contraction. They agreed that lockdowns should continue until the threat of resurgence has declined, even when considering only the economic impact. There was a general agreement, at least in some economic circles, that "severe lockdowns — including closing non-essential businesses and strict limitations on people's movement — are likely to be better for the economy in the medium term than less aggressive measures".
Both the
World Food Programme (WFP) and the
World Health Organization (WHO) have published statements noting the impact of the lockdowns on livelihoods and
food security
Food security speaks to the availability of food in a country (or geography) and the ability of individuals within that country (geography) to access, afford, and source adequate foodstuffs. According to the United Nations' Committee on World F ...
, and Dr
David Nabarro
Sir David Nunes Nabarro (born 26 August 1949) is a Special Envoy on Covid-19 for the World Health Organization. He has made his career in the international civil service, working for either the Secretary-General of the United Nations or the Di ...
, WHO Special Envoy on COVID-19 stated in October 2020 that "lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer".
Protests
There have also been a number of protests worldwide in opposition to lockdowns, including in the
United Kingdom, the
United States,
Germany,
the Netherlands,
Canada and
New Zealand. The motivations for and sizes of these protests have varied. Some have been spurred by the
economic and
social impacts of lockdowns, but have also been associated with
misinformation related to the pandemic,
conspiracy theories
A conspiracy theory is an explanation for an event or situation that invokes a conspiracy by sinister and powerful groups, often political in motivation, when other explanations are more probable.Additional sources:
*
*
*
* The term has a nega ...
and
anti-vaccination
Vaccine hesitancy is a delay in acceptance, or refusal, of vaccines despite the availability of vaccine services and supporting evidence. The term covers refusals to vaccinate, delaying vaccines, accepting vaccines but remaining uncertain abou ...
.
Table of pandemic lockdowns
In the table
pandemic lockdown
In public health, social distancing, also called physical distancing, (NB. Regula Venske is president of the PEN Centre Germany.) is a set of non-pharmaceutical interventions or measures intended to prevent the spread of a contagious disea ...
s are defined as the shutdown of parts of the economy,
due to
non-pharmaceutical anti-pandemic measures and are enforceable by law like:
*
Closing of schools and kindergartens
* Closing of non-essential shops (shops and stores apart from food, doctors and drug stores)
* Closing of non-essential production
* Cancellation of recreational venues and closing of public places
*
Curfew
A curfew is a government order specifying a time during which certain regulations apply. Typically, curfews order all people affected by them to ''not'' be in public places or on roads within a certain time frame, typically in the evening and ...
s
*
Stay-at-home orders and total movement control
These measures are considered to have caused the
COVID-19 recession
The COVID-19 recession, also referred to as the Great Lockdown, is a global economic recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recession began in most countries in February 2020.
After a year of global economic slowdown that saw stagnat ...
in 2020.
The table does not contain:
* Measures with smaller economic impacts like:
**
border closures
**
social distancing measures and social movement restrictions
**
travel restrictions.
* Other non-pharmaceutical anti-pandemic measures like
mandatory quarantines after travel,
self quarantine and
social distancing measures
* Any measures which are voluntary rather than enforceable by law
The pandemic has resulted in the largest number of shutdowns/lockdowns worldwide at the same time in history.
By 26 March, 1.7 billion people worldwide were under some form of lockdown, which increased to 3.9 billion people by the first week of April – more than half of the
world's population.
Major restrictions first began in China,
with other countries in East Asia like
Vietnam soon following it in implementing widespread containment measures. Much of
Europe,
North America and
Africa
Africa is the world's second-largest and second-most populous continent, after Asia in both cases. At about 30.3 million km2 (11.7 million square miles) including adjacent islands, it covers 6% of Earth's total surface area ...
took much longer to bring in tough measures.
Lockdowns between and within nations are of varying stringency.
By mid April, nearly 300 million people, or about 90 per cent of the population, were under some form of lockdown in the
United States, with around 100 million in the
Philippines and about 59 million in
South Africa, while around 1.3 billion were under lockdown in
India, which was the largest of all lockdowns.
By the end of April, around 300 million people were under lockdown in various countries of Europe, including but not limited to
Italy,
Spain,
France, and the
United Kingdom; while around 200 million people were under lockdown in Latin America.
Variation by countries and territories
See also
*
Cordon sanitaire (medicine)
A ''cordon sanitaire'' (, French for "sanitary cordon") is the restriction of movement of people into or out of a defined geographic area, such as a community, region, or country. The term originally denoted a barrier used to stop the spread of ...
*
COVID-19 community quarantines in the Philippines
COVID-19 community quarantines in the Philippines were series of stay-at-home orders and '' cordon sanitaire'' measures that have been implemented by the government of the Philippines through its Inter-Agency Task Force for the Management of ...
*
COVID-19 lockdown in China
On 23 January 2020, the central government of China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei in an effort to quarantine the center of an outbreak of COVID-19; this action was commonly referred to as the Wuhan lockdown (). The Wor ...
*
COVID-19 lockdown in India
On the evening of 24 March 2020, the Government of India ordered a nationwide lockdown for 21days, limiting movement of the entire 1.38billion (138 crore) population of India as a preventive measure against the COVID-19 pandemic in India. It w ...
*
COVID-19 lockdown in Italy
On 9 March 2020, the government of Italy under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a national lockdown or quarantine, restricting the movement of the population except for necessity, work, and health circumstances, in response to the growin ...
*
Flattening the curve
*
List of species named after the COVID-19 pandemic (including lockdowns)
*
Malaysian movement control order
*
National responses to the COVID-19 pandemic
*
Preventive action
*
Stay-at-home order
*
Timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic
Notes
References
{{COVID-19 pandemic, short=yes
Articles containing video clips
lockdowns
Curfews
Emergency management
Country lockdowns
Public health
Quarantine
Human rights abuses