Cyclone Tauktae

Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae () was a powerful, deadly and damaging tropical cyclone in the Arabian Sea that became the strongest tropical cyclone to make landfall in the Indian state of Gujarat since the 1998 Gujarat cyclone and one of the strongest tropical cyclones to ever affect the west coast of India and above all It was the strongest storm of 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The second depression, first cyclonic storm, first severe cyclonic storm, first very severe cyclonic storm, and first extremely severe cyclonic storm of the 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Tauktae originated from an area of low pressure in the Arabian Sea, which was first monitored by the India Meteorological Department on May 13. The low drifted eastward and organized into a deep depression by May 14. The storm soon took a northward turn, continuing to gradually intensify because of warm waters near the coast, and the system strengthened into a cyclonic storm and was named ''Tauktae'' later that same day. Tauktae continued intensifying into May 15, reaching severe cyclonic storm status later that day. Tauktae began to parallel the coast of the Indian states of Kerala, Karnataka, Goa and Maharashtra, before rapidly intensifying into a very severe cyclonic storm, early on May 16. Early on May 17, Tauktae intensified into an extremely severe cyclonic storm, reaching its peak intensity soon afterward. Later that same day, Tauktae underwent an eyewall replacement cycle and weakened, before restrengthening as it neared the coast of Gujarat, making landfall soon afterward.

After making landfall, Tauktae gradually weakened as it slowly turned northeastward, moving further inland. On May 19, Tauktae weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area.
Tauktae brought heavy rainfall and flash floods to areas along the coast of Kerala and on Lakshadweep. There were reports of heavy rain in the states of Goa, Karnataka and Maharashtra as well. Tauktae resulted in at least 169 deaths in India, and left another 81 people missing. There were also 5 deaths reported in Pakistan. The storm displaced over 200,000 people in Gujarat. The cyclone also caused widespread infrastructure and agricultural damage to the western coast of India. Upwards of 40 fishermen were lost at sea when their boats were caught in the cyclone. Mumbai also experienced the impact of the storm, with airports being closed for safety reasons.

The city experienced their highest ever recorded wind gust at . Power outages and other electrical problems also prevailed in the impacted regions. The cyclone made landfall in Gujarat the same day as India recorded its, at the time, highest single-day COVID-19 death toll, with 4,329 deaths reported. The cyclone also caused a large amount of maritime incidents as it moved along the coast of western India. Hundreds were missing from various barges; however, most of them have been rescued. Other larger ships also experienced problems, such as structure or power losses. At least 174 people have been killed by the storm, with over 80 still missing. Losses from Tauktae were calculated at ₹115 billion or US$1.57 billion.

Meteorological history

On May 11, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began monitoring a large area of low pressure in the equatorial Arabian Sea for potential tropical cyclone development. As the system slowly moved eastwards, it gradually organized amid favorable conditions, including sea surface temperatures of up to and low wind shear. The JTWC issued a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert on this system on May 13. A few hours later, the JTWC designated it as ''Tropical Cyclone 01A''. The system gradually intensified, as the previously disorganized broad area of convection began to wrap around the low-level circulation center. It further strengthened to become a deep depression at 12:00  UTC the next day. Around this time, the system turned northeastwards and began to move towards India. Due to the very large area of convection over the cyclone, it dumped heavy rainfall over the southern portions of the country. Six hours after the upgrade, the system became even more organized and intensified into a cyclonic storm, receiving the name ''Tauktae'' by the IMD. Tauktae later intensified into a Severe Cyclonic Storm at 15:00 UTC on May 15, as a robust central dense overcast developed. Just three hours later, the JTWC upgraded Tauktae to a Category 1 tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS), while a ragged eye appeared on infrared satellite imagery as the storm started a period of rapid intensification.

Early the next day, the cyclone turned northward, paralleling the west coast of India. Amid the favorable conditions stated earlier, the storm rapidly intensified, and at 06:00 UTC that day, the JTWC upgraded the system to a Category 2 tropical cyclone. By 09:00 UTC, the cyclone had developed a well-defined, but ragged eye, according to INSAT imagery, and the JTWC upgraded Tauktae to a Category 3-equivalent tropical cyclone, as rapid intensification continued. Despite this period of strengthening, the eye of the storm degraded for a while, according to INSAT imagery. Later, the storm continued intensifying, and at 03:00 UTC on May 17 Tauktae reached its peak intensity as an extremely severe cyclonic storm, with maximum 3-minute sustained winds of , maximum 1-minute sustained winds of , and a minimum central pressure of , making the storm the equivalent of a Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale. Soon afterward, Tauktae initiated an eyewall replacement cycle, which started to weaken the storm.

As the storm neared the coast of Gujarat, Tauktae completed its eyewall replacement cycle and began to reorganize, as a new eye became visible on satellite imagery, and the cloud top temperatures dropped in the central dense overcast (CDO) region. At 8:30 p.m. local time (IST), the cyclone made landfall near Una in Gujarat. Soon afterward, the JTWC issued their final warning on the system. In the advisory, the agency estimated Tauktae's 1-minute sustained winds at landfall to be , making Tauktae the equivalent of a high-end Category 3 tropical cyclone, making it the strongest storm to make landfall in Gujarat since reliable records began, surpassing the record set by 1998 Gujarat cyclone. Afterward, due to land interaction, the storm began to weaken slowly; the Brown ocean effect from the Gulf of Kutch and Gulf of Khambhat caused the storm to weaken at a slower pace than usual. By 11:30 a.m. local time (IST), the storm had weakened below severe cyclonic storm intensity, before weakening below cyclonic storm intensity twelve hours later, after traversing the rugged terrain of the Aravalli range, bringing heavy rainfall and wind gusts to the region of North India. At 14:00 UTC on May 19, Tauktae weakened into a well-marked low-pressure area over Rajasthan and adjoining Madhya Pradesh, and the IMD issued their final bulletin on the storm.

Preparations

India

Pre-landfall

On May 16, 2021, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a high review meeting to review preparedness on the cyclone through video conferencing with various senior officials in New Delhi. All coastal fishing in Kerala was banned by the state's disaster management authority between May 13–17 in anticipation of rough seas caused by Tauktae's formation and traversal of the offshore waters. The IMD issued a red alert for nine districts in Kerala for torrential rainfall on May 15, including Lakshadweep. All flights at Agatti Airport in Lakshadweep were suspended while the cyclone passed over the archipelago. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) dispatched nine teams to Kerala while detachments of the Indian military were placed on standby. Supplemental oxygen and other medical supplies were also brought within the risk areas from both domestic and foreign sources. Three fishermen on an inoperable vessel were rescued by the Indian Coast Guard off Kannur on May 14. More than 2,000 people were evacuated to 71 centres were established for populations vulnerable to coastal erosion while COVID-19 patients among the evacuees were brought to specialised treatment centres. A curfew initially imposed to curtail the spread of COVID-19 in Dakshina Kannada, Karnataka. In total, the NDRF mobilised 4,700 personnel in 100 teams across six states. In Gujarat, 200,000 people were evacuated from low-lying areas all while 54 teams of the National Disaster Response Force and State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) were deployed. In Maharashtra, Chief Minister Uddhav Thackeray said alerts had been raised for coastal districts and that the state administration had been preparing to ensure that electricity and oxygen supply would remain in COVID-19 hospitals. Operations at Mumbai International Airport were suspended on May 17 between 11:00 and 14:00 IST. Bandra Worli Sea Link was also closed for normal traffic and the COVID-19 vaccination drive in Mumbai was also suspended for the day.

On May 16, the number of people evacuated quickly grew to tens of thousands of people as Tauktae neared the Gujarati coast. The IMD said tidal waves of up to nine feet were expected in the area. Government officials of the Indian state said that over 150,000 people were to be evacuated from vulnerable areas on Sunday evening. All fishing was suspended until Monday near the Gujarat coast. More than 170 mobile intensive care unit vans were deployed to help prevent the possibility of the current surge in COVID-19 cases being worsened. Hospitals windproofed their buildings to prevent damage. The Navy was placed on standby in Gujarat. The army was also reported to be continuously watching Tauktae. At this time, 180 relief and rescue teams and 9 ETFs were also on standby. The IMD warned of coastal flooding caused by storm surge of up to 13 feet. Ahmedabad, Gujarat's most populous city, was predicted to receive up to 4 inches of rainfall during the next 1–2 days, more than the average amount that the city receives in the first half of the year. Hundreds of COVID-19 patients were shifted from coastal wards in Mumbai to safer ground. Crews, dressed in hazmat suits, patrolled coastal areas and warned locals to get to higher ground.

Post-landfall

As the storm moved through Gujarat and weakened much more slowly than previously expected, rainfall predictions were made by the IMD for various areas of the state. On May 19, an orange alert was issued for Delhi and adjoining parts of Haryana and West Uttar Pradesh. Localized flooding, waterlogging of low-lying areas and closures of underpasses in hilly areas was warned. Reduction in visibility, disruption of traffic, road and structure damage, and agricultural impacts were also of concern. Isolated areas were expected to receive "very heavy" rainfall, over a "fairly widespread" to "widespread" region. The IMD advised those at risk to check for traffic congestion on their planned routes, follow traffic warnings, and to avoid going to places at risk of water damage and waterlogging. National capital New Delhi witnessed heavy downpours on May 19, totaling 119.3 mm in 24 hours, the highest single-day rainfall in history in May, with waterlogging reported in many areas. Similar intensity rainfall was witnessed over Rewari in Haryana and Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh.

Pakistan

Chief Minister of Sindh Syed Murad Ali Shah held a cyclone emergency meeting, where he declared an emergency in every district located along the coastal belt of the province.

Impact

India

In total, 169 people had died in India as a result of Cyclone Tauktae, with at least 80 others injured and about 81 missing. 10 died in Kerala, 8 in Karnataka, 3 in Goa, 18 in Maharashtra, 64 in Gujarat, while 66 died from the sinking of Barge ''P305''. 11,774,038 people have been affected, 257,135 evacuated, and over 56,846 houses have been damaged. 69,429 electric poles and 196 roads have been damaged, as well as more than 40,000 trees. Water supply system in 5,951 villages were damaged too.

South India

Although it remained offshore, Tauktae brought heavy rainfall to Kerala. An average of of rain fell across the state on May 15, damaging its agriculture and power infrastructure. Flash floods occurred and soil was waterlogged in Kerala. Over a hundred homes sustained damage throughout the state. Two people were killed in Ernakulam and Kozhikode districts of Kerala, with a state total of 10. Severe coastal erosion occurred in Ambalappuzha, Cherthala, and Karthikappally. Homes were damaged or destroyed in Alappuzha and Kadakkarappally

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