Cyclone Eloise

Tropical Cyclone Eloise was the strongest tropical cyclone to impact the country of Mozambique since Cyclone Kenneth in 2019 and the second of three consecutive tropical cyclones to impact Mozambique in the 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. The seventh tropical depression, fifth named storm and the second tropical cyclone of the season, Eloise's origins can be traced to a disturbance over the central portion of the South-West Indian Ocean basin which developed into a tropical depression on 16 January, and strengthened into a tropical storm on 17 January, though the storm had limited strength and organization. On the next day, the storm entered a more favorable environment, and it soon intensified to a severe tropical storm on 18 January. Late on 19 January, Eloise made landfall in northern Madagascar as a moderate tropical storm, bringing with it heavy rainfall and flooding. The storm traversed Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel in the early hours of 21 January. After moving southwestward across the Mozambique Channel for an additional 2 days, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent cyclone, due to low wind shear and high sea surface temperatures. Early on 23 January, Eloise peaked as a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale as the center of the storm began to move ashore in Mozambique. Shortly afterward, Eloise made landfall just north of Beira, Mozambique, before rapidly weakening. Subsequently, Eloise weakened into a remnant low over land on 25 January, dissipating soon afterward.

Preparations for the advancing storm took place in Madagascar before Eloise's landfall and in multiple other African countries. For Madagascar, widespread warnings and alerts were issued as the storm approached northern Madagascar. For Mozambique, high alerts were put in place for central portions of the country. Humanitarian responders prepared for response after the storms passing. Beira's port also closed for about 40 hours, and limited supplies of emergency non-food items were given. Many families were sheltered in tents at accommodation centers, and received kits for food, hygiene, and COVID-19 protection. Officials in Zimbabwe warned of ravine and flash flooding, which may cause infrastructure damage. Several northern provinces of South Africa were expected to experience heavy rains, which prompted severe risk warnings for them. Disaster management teams were placed on high alert ahead of the storm.

Extreme flooding occurred throughout central Mozambique, with many areas being flooded due to continuous heavy rains weeks prior to Eloise's landfall. More than 100,000 people have been displaced and dams are at a tipping point. Infrastructure has taken a heavy hit. Approximately 100,000 people were evacuated by 23 January, although the number is expected to grow to 400,000. Flooding and damage have been less than feared. Weak shelters set up for the cyclone were either damaged or destroyed. Beira was completely flooded, and the impacts were comparable to those of Cyclone Idai, though they were far less severe. Farmland was damaged as well. Teams were sent out to assess the damage and repair it. There have been 27 confirmed deaths, with one in Madagascar, 11 in Mozambique, three in Zimbabwe, 10 in South Africa, and two in Eswatini. Eleven additional people are currently missing. Current damage from the storm is estimated to exceed $10 million (2021 USD) in Southern Africa.

Meteorological history

On 14 January, a zone of disturbed weather formed over the central South Indian Ocean to the east of another system and gradually organized while moving westward. On 16 January, the system organized into a tropical depression. With the presence of persisting deep convection, the system eventually strengthened into Moderate Tropical Storm Eloise on 17 January. Initially, Eloise struggled to strengthen further from the presence of strong easterly shear and dry air, which caused Eloise's thunderstorm activity to be displaced to the west. Despite the presence of this shear and mid-level dry air, Eloise continued to intensify, with convection wrapping into an eye feature and outflow becoming increasingly defined, marking the intensification of Eloise into a severe tropical storm on 19 January, while heading westward towards Madagascar.

This intensification trend did not last for a long time, as Eloise made a small turn to the north and then made landfall in Antalaha, Madagascar, whilst weakening back to a moderate tropical storm, due to land interaction with the mountains of Madagascar. The next day, Eloise weakened to a tropical depression due to land interaction, with deep convection over its center eroded though it maintained flaring convection over the northern semicircle.

On 20 January, Eloise emerged into the Mozambique Channel, where Eloise began to slowly reintensify, with warm waters, a moist environment, little shear, but weak upper-level divergence contributing to the storm's slow strengthening trend. However, some upper-level convergence hindered convection from developing quickly, though all other factors were relatively favorable. Soon afterward, the upper-level convergence began to decrease, allowing the system to begin rapidly strengthening. On 21 January, Eloise's outflow became robust, though its strength was limited, due to land interaction in the northern semicircle of the storm, having the strongest winds in the southeast quadrant and sustaining much weaker winds elsewhere. Despite sustained land interaction, Eloise strengthened, with improving poleward outflow and tightly wrapped banding features wrapping into an small eye.

On 22 January, Eloise significantly improved in organization as it moved southwestward across the Mozambique Channel. Later that day, Eloise strengthened into a Category 1-equivalent tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale (SSHWS), as it neared the coast of Mozambique, given the favorable conditions in the region. Early on 23 January, Eloise strengthened further and peaked as a Category 2-equivalent tropical cyclone, with 10-minute sustained winds of , 1-minute sustained winds of , and a minimum central pressure of , as the storm's eyewall began moving ashore. Soon afterward, Eloise made landfall just north of Beira, Mozambique, at the same intensity. Following landfall, Eloise rapidly deteriorated, with the storm weakening back into a moderate tropical storm within 12 hours and the eye completely disappearing. As the storm moved further inland, Eloise weakened rapidly, due to interaction with the rugged terrain and dry air. Later that day, Eloise weakened into a tropical depression as it tracked further inland. On 25 January, Eloise degenerated into a remnant low, and the MFR issued their final advisory on the system, with the storm dissipating soon afterward.

Preparations

Madagascar

Ahead of landfall, humanitarians and authorities in Madagascar coordinated preparedness activities. A meeting was organized on 19 January by the National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC) to prepare for potential assessments and/or response. Authorities devised plans, including contingency plans, evacuation plans, emergency operation centres and early warning system at the community level. Aerial assessments using photo and geo-tracking system were also planned for the impact of the storm. The local contingency plan in the north-eastern part of the country and the early warning system at the community level was activated. Emergency stocks are available in many districts in the most at-risk areas. On 18 January, the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) gave the storm a green alert, which pointed to a wind impact of 0.5. The next day, GDACS upgraded the storm alert to an orange alert, which pointed to a higher 1.5 wind impact. With Eloise enhancing heavy rainfall, landslides, flash floods, and widespread flooding were expected. Moreover, waves up were expected in Antongil Bay.

Mozambique

According to the Mozambican National Meteorological Institute (INAM), Eloise was expected to make landfall somewhere between the Inhambane and Gaza provinces. Government officials have placed the Inhanombe and Mutamba in southern Mozambique and Buzi and Pungoe basins in central Mozambique on high alert. The newly created National Institute for Management and Disaster Risk Reduction (INGD) – which has replaced the former National Disaster Management Institute (INGC) – closely followed Eloise's trajectory and worked with humanitarian partners to prepare for any response required. By mid-afternoon 22 January, shops across Beira were closed and multiple streets were flooded from rainfall brought by the approaching storm. The port of Beira will closed for about 40 hours, in expectation of dangerous winds and flooding rains. A limited supply of emergency items had been stockpiled in the city. Hundreds of families were evacuation to two accommodation centers and are sheltered in tents. People in shelters are in need of food and hygiene kits, as well as COVID-19 protection. Mozambique's National Institute for Disaster Risk Management and Reduction (INGD) reported that around 3,000 people were evacuated from Buzi District.

South Africa

According to the South African Weather Service, Northern Limpopo, Mpumalanga, and northern KwaZulu are expected to be affected by heavy rains that may last into Monday. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) had put a level 4 yellow and a level 9 orange warning through 25 January for disruptive rain across central and eastern parts of the Mpumulanga and Limpopo provinces and the northeastern parts of Kwazulu-Natal Province. The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe had warned of heavy rainfall, flooding, destructive winds and lightning on 23 January in parts of the country due to Tropical Cyclone Eloise. Widespread flooding, and water-related damage to infrastructure was expected. Sipho Hlomuka, a co-operative governance and traditional affairs for KwaZulu-Natal, had placed disaster management teams on high alert. Disaster management teams were put on high alert in Limpopo ahead of the cyclones expected impacts in the region.

Alert nines were issued for Limpopo and Mpumalanga. Basikopo Makamu, Limpopo's Cooperative Governance MEC, said the SANDF were on standby to help rescue people who may be cut off or trapped due to Eloise. The Gauteng emergency response team is on alert. They have activated contingency plans, to assist Gauteng and other surrounding provinces. SAWS has issued red alerts for disruptive rains over Lowveld areas of Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces as well as the eastern Highveld areas. These will persist until 25 January. The weather service warned that rainfall may add to saturated grounds and worsen potential flooding, mudslides, and rockfalls. These may disrupt essential services, like food, water, sanitation, electricity, and communication. On 27 January, SAWS issued warnings for disruptive landfall from 26 January to 29 January. This included a yellow warning for western North-West province and extreme north-eastern portions of Northern Cape. These spread to western and central Free State.

Elsewhere

In Eswatini, the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA) determined that northern and eastern part of the country might be vulnerable to Cyclone Eloise, with high altitude areas of high focus. Early warning systems were initiated, and evacuation plans to evacuation centers were prepared, in addition to other necessary measures. The Municipal Council of Mbabane Public Information states that drains had been cleaned out to avoid floods and that trees that threatened structures and people were identified. The Royal Eswatini Police Service urged motorists to be cautious, and to abide by an 8 PM to 4 AM curfew.

Both the Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services in Malawi and Mozambique noted that Malawi would be unlikely to be directly impacted by Eloise, but would experience some rainfall. Furthermore, officials issued warnings for heavy downpours and strong winds. In Botswana, the government's Meteorological Services issued a warning for heavy rains, strong winds, and localized flooding on 24 January. On 22 January, the service informed that the remnants of Eloise were expected to cause heavy rainfall, strong winds, and lightning. They advised the population to take caution.

Impact

Madagascar

On 19 January, Eloise made landfall in the northeastern town of Antalaha, Madagascar as a tropical storm. Eloise produced heavy rain, which had the potential to lead to floods and landslides in northern Madagascar. Météo-France noted on 20 January that accumulations for were possible in 24 hours for the northwestern regions of Madagascar. By 18:00 UTC on 19 January, authorities had issued a red alert (imminent danger) for the Sava, Analanjirofo, Bealanana, Befandriana Avaratra and Mandritsara regions and a yellow alert (threat) for Toamasina I-II and Alaotra. All weather warnings have been lifted in Brickaville, Vatomandry, Mahanoro and Moramanga. Strong winds, reaching near gale

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