The Copenhagen Diagnosis is a
climate change report written by 26 climate scientists from eight countries.
It was published in 2009 and was a summary of the peer-reviewed literature to date.
A media conference was held to present the major findings of the report at the
2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference, commonly known as the Copenhagen Summit, was held at the Bella Center in Copenhagen, Denmark, between 7 and 18 December. The conference included the 15th session of the Conference of the Partie ...
, in Copenhagen, Denmark, chaired by the Copenhagen Diagnosis coordinating lead author,
Matthew England
Matthew England is a physical oceanographer and climate scientist. He is currently Scientia Professor of Ocean & Climate Dynamics at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Education
In 1987 England completed a B.Sc. (Honours Cl ...
.
The Copenhagen Diagnosis aimed to synthesize the most policy-relevant climate science published since the close-off of material for the previous
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) a ...
's Working Group 1 Report (
AR4
''Climate Change 2007'', the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was published in 2007 and is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and soci ...
),
thus serving as an interim evaluation of the evolving science midway through an IPCC cycle, with IPCC
AR5 not due for completion until 2013.
The report also aimed to serve as a handbook of science updates that supplements the IPCC AR4 in time for the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference
held in December 2009, and for any national or international climate change policy negotiations that followed.
The Copenhagen Diagnosis reached a number of conclusions, as set out in the executive summary, including:
# Surging greenhouse gas emissions
#* Relative to 1990, the combined 2008 global emissions of carbon dioxide from various sources such as
fossil fuel burning
A fossil fuel is a hydrocarbon-containing material formed naturally in the Earth's crust from the remains of dead plants and animals that is extracted and burned as a fuel. The main fossil fuels are coal, oil, and natural gas. Fossil fuels ma ...
, cement production, and
deforestation, has increased 27%.
# Human-induced warming
#* Detection and attribution studies show that
global warming can be unambiguously linked to anthropogenic interference in the climate system.
# Acceleration of ice melt contributions to sea-level
#*
Glaciers
A glacier (; ) is a persistent body of dense ice that is constantly moving under its own weight. A glacier forms where the accumulation of snow exceeds its ablation over many years, often centuries. It acquires distinguishing features, such as ...
, ice sheets and melting ice caps show an accelerated rate of melt, contributing to ongoing global
sea level rise.
# Rapid Arctic sea-ice decline
#* Melting of
Arctic sea-ice has also accelerated, exceeding the projections of climate models.
# Underestimation of
rising sea levels
#* The recent rate of sea level rise (3.4 mm/yr over the past 15 years) is around 80% faster than previously predicted.
# The risk of irreversible damage
#* There are several components of the
climate system that may undergo irreversible change if fossil fuel emissions continue unchecked, including
ice-sheets,
Amazon rainforest
The Amazon rainforest, Amazon jungle or ; es, Selva amazónica, , or usually ; french: Forêt amazonienne; nl, Amazoneregenwoud. In English, the names are sometimes capitalized further, as Amazon Rainforest, Amazon Forest, or Amazon Jungle. ...
, and the West African
monsoon.
# Turning point must come soon
#* To limited global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, carbon emissions need to peak in the next decade and then decline rapidly.
# The Future
#* To stop climate change and secure a safe climate future, the world needs to move to
net-zero emissions of CO
2.
To maximize global outreach, the major findings of the Copenhagen Diagnosis were translated into 12 languages.
The Copenhagen Diagnosis has been accessed online over a million times since its release, and was named an Outstanding Academic Title by the
American Library Association's Choice publication in 2012.
References
External links
* {{small, (23.3 MB)
2009 in the environment
Climate change books
Environmental reports