A conflict continuum is a model or concept various

social science Social science is one of the branches of science, devoted to the study of societies and the relationships among individuals within those societies. The term was formerly used to refer to the field of sociology, the original "science of soc ...

researchers use when modeling conflict on a continuum from low to high-intensity, such as from aggression to irritation to explosiveness. The mathematical model of

game theory Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. Myerson, Roger B. (1991). ''Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict,'' Harvard University Press, p.&nbs1 Chapter-preview links, ppvii–xi It has appli ...

originally posited only a winner and a loser (a

zero-sum game Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation which involves two sides, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. In other words, player one's gain is e ...

) in a conflict, but was extended to

cooperation Cooperation (written as co-operation in British English) is the process of groups of organisms working or acting together for common, mutual, or some underlying benefit, as opposed to working in competition for selfish benefit. Many animal a ...

(a win-win situation and a non-zero sum game), and lets users specify any point between cooperation,

peace Peace is a concept of societal friendship and harmony in the absence of hostility and violence. In a social sense, peace is commonly used to mean a lack of conflict (such as war) and freedom from fear of violence between individuals or groups. ...

,A state of

Nash equilibrium In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...

rivalry A rivalry is the state of two people or groups engaging in a lasting competitive relationship. Rivalry is the "against each other" spirit between two competing sides. The relationship itself may also be called "a rivalry", and each participant o ...

, contest, crisis,James McConvill
Chief of Staff paper #1, Headquarters, Department of the Army (16 March 2021) Army Multi-Domain Transformation: Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict
unclassified version and conflict among stakeholders. Glasl's_Model_of_Conflict_Escalation

Overview

By the decade of the 2010s, military planners realized that additional capabilities in communications, sensors and weapons countermeasures made it possible for competitors to react to a contestant's moves in the "gray zone" just short of conflict. In 2018 Kelly McCoy identified a continuum within competition itself, as explored in the United States

Joint Staff The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) is the body of the most senior uniformed leaders within the United States Department of Defense, that advises the president of the United States, the secretary of defense, the Homeland Security Council and the ...

's Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (JCIC), up to the point just short of armed conflict, while noting Perkins' connection to deterrence in the continuum. In 2020, Donald Stoker and Craig Whiteside cautioned that for strategists, the " gray zone" must not blur peace and war; they offered an analysis of the need for strategists to clearly distinguish peace, competition, contest, conflict, and war. ''Standoff'' is the condition of deadlock between antagonists,''Standoff'', Noun: A deadlocked confrontation between antagonists. sometimes measured by the distance between them (

standoff distance Standoff distance is a security term that refers to measures to prevent unscreened and potentially threatening people and vehicles from approaching within a certain distance of a building, car, or other shelter, roadblock or other location, or to a ...

). For antagonists in a non-zero sum game, von Neumann and Morgenstern showed in 1944 that this condition is equivalent to a zero-sum game with +1 antagonists, where the +1st player ("the fictitious player") is not an entity. Rather the fictitious player represents the global profit (or loss) of the players in the non-zero sum game. If we reduce this game to a zero-sum 3-player game by the introduction of a fictitious player 3, then the characteristic function becomes the one given In

Tibor Scitovsky Tibor de Scitovsky, also known as Tibor Scitovsky (November 3, 1910 – June 1, 2002), was a Hungarian born, American economist who was best known for his writing on the nature of people's happiness in relation to consumption. He was Associa ...

's terminology (more commonly known as the Kaldor–Hicks criterion), this global profit (or loss) of the +1st player represents the amount that the gainers would have been prepared to pay to the losers (or, in a global loss, the global amount that the players have lost in total), in order to attain a desired global policy. ''

Overmatch Overmatch is a concept in modern military thinking which prizes having overwhelming advantages over an adversary to a more significant margin than in traditional warfare. It is related to military superiority. Overmatch uses a military force's "ca ...

'' is the condition where protagonist A is able to present multiple dilemmas to an antagonist E. Thus if E can recognize that E risks total destruction (annihilation), then it is possible to bring an end to conflict between A and E. If A can bring about overmatch for all E's, the

hegemony Hegemony (, , ) is the political, economic, and military predominance of one State (polity), state over other states. In Ancient Greece (8th BC – AD 6th ), hegemony denoted the politico-military dominance of the ''hegemon'' city-state over oth ...

of A would result, temporarily. In other confrontations between A and the Es, ''deterrence'' can be the mutual recognition that power need not be used to destroy one another (

mutually assured destruction Mutual assured destruction (MAD) is a doctrine of military strategy and national security policy which posits that a full-scale use of nuclear weapons by an attacker on a nuclear-armed defender with second-strike capabilities would cause the ...

). Instead A might

display Display may refer to: Technology * Display device, output device for presenting information, including: ** Cathode ray tube, video display that provides a quality picture, but can be very heavy and deep ** Electronic visual display, output devi ...

project A project is any undertaking, carried out individually or collaboratively and possibly involving research or design, that is carefully planned to achieve a particular goal. An alternative view sees a project managerially as a sequence of even ...

its power to the Es as a substitute for battle with them.Yasuhito Tanaka (9 Sep 2018) On zero-sum game formulation of non zero-sum game
/ref> If A's power can remain leashed (

potential Potential generally refers to a currently unrealized ability. The term is used in a wide variety of fields, from physics to the social sciences to indicate things that are in a state where they are able to change in ways ranging from the simple re ...

rather than

kinetic Kinetic (Ancient Greek: κίνησις “kinesis”, movement or to move) may refer to: * Kinetic theory of gases, Kinetic theory, describing a gas as particles in random motion * Kinetic energy, the energy of an object that it possesses due to i ...

) then

soft power In politics (and particularly in international politics), soft power is the ability to co-opt rather than coerce (contrast hard power). In other words, soft power involves shaping the preferences of others through appeal and attraction. A defin ...

and

hard power In politics, hard power is the use of military and economic means to influence the behavior or interests of other political bodies. This form of political power is often aggressive (coercion), and is most immediately effective when imposed by one ...

are also optional possibilities on a continuum of possible conflict between A and the Es.Matthew Rothenberg (6/19/2019) For the industrial Internet of Things, defense in depth is a requirement
/ref>

Various continuum models

Elise Boulding's conflict continuum

Elise M. Boulding was a Quaker sociologist influenced by the events of

World War II World War II or the Second World War, often abbreviated as WWII or WW2, was a world war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. It involved the vast majority of the world's countries—including all of the great powers—forming two opposin ...

. Examining how

war War is an intense armed conflict between states, governments, societies, or paramilitary groups such as mercenaries, insurgents, and militias. It is generally characterized by extreme violence, destruction, and mortality, using regular o ...

becomes

, she posited a continuum between and . This is Boulding's conflict continuum: ::

Andra Medea's types of conflict

Theorist

Andra Medea Andra Medea (born 1953) is an American writer and a project developer and theorist on issues of conflict and violence, specifically crisis prevention. She first came to prominence in 1974 when, with writer Kathleen Thompson, she wrote ''Against ...

seeks to explain how

individuals An individual is that which exists as a distinct entity. Individuality (or self-hood) is the state or quality of being an individual; particularly (in the case of humans) of being a person unique from other people and possessing one's own need ...

, small groups,

organizations An organization or organisation (Commonwealth English; see spelling differences), is an entity—such as a company, an institution, or an association—comprising one or more people and having a particular purpose. The word is derived from ...

families Family (from la, familia) is a group of people related either by consanguinity (by recognized birth) or affinity (by marriage or other relationship). The purpose of the family is to maintain the well-being of its members and of society. Ideall ...

ethnicities An ethnic group or an ethnicity is a grouping of people who identify with each other on the basis of shared attributes that distinguish them from other groups. Those attributes can include common sets of traditions, ancestry, language, history, ...

, and even whole

nations A nation is a community of people formed on the basis of a combination of shared features such as language, history, ethnicity, culture and/or society. A nation is thus the collective identity of a group of people understood as defined by those ...

function when disputes arise between them. She posits that there are four types or levels of conflict, each operating under distinct rules: :: Each level moving from first to fourth is characterized by increasing degrees of separation from reality, and decreasing degrees of maturity, in this context, defined as the ability to control anger and settle differences without violence or destruction. Problem-solving behavior is based in reality and maturity, and is therefore more rational and mature than domination. Domination is more rational and mature than blind behavior, which is more rational and mature than the Rogue Messiah. However, each level moving from fourth to first is more capable than the one below it at forcing victory in a conflict. The rogue messiah overpowers blind behavior, blind behavior thwarts domination, and domination deadlocks problem-solving.

Perkins' continuum of conflict

Before 2017, winning a conflict was seen as the objective of the US Army.Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World —Gen. David G. Perkins
/ref> By 2018, the US Air Force showed it was important to reformulate this strategy, as part of a larger process of (MDO), which involve more than an army in a theater of war (

and

Cold War The Cold War is a term commonly used to refer to a period of geopolitical tension between the United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies, the Western Bloc and the Eastern Bloc. The term '' cold war'' is used because the ...

model). Specifically, MDO can offer options short of war which can defuse armed conflict from

total war Total war is a type of warfare that includes any and all civilian-associated resources and infrastructure as legitimate military targets, mobilizes all of the resources of society to fight the war, and gives priority to warfare over non-combata ...

into deterrence, compromise, or cooperation between competitors.Douglas A. Ollivant (June 17, 2019) On Will and War
/ref>MDO Challenge (15 May 2019) *Start here* MDO 101
– General explanation of multi-domain operations (MDO) for the layma
Multi Domain Operations – Oct. 2, 2019
– Overview video 7:41 illustrating TRADOC pamphlet TP 525-3-1.Lt. Col. Edward A. Fraser and Command Sgt. Maj. Robert V. Abernethy (April 1, 2019) Strong Europe: A continental-scale combat sustainment laboratory
– Includes

Euler diagram An Euler diagram (, ) is a diagrammatic means of representing sets and their relationships. They are particularly useful for explaining complex hierarchies and overlapping definitions. They are similar to another set diagramming technique, Ven ...

of European alliances, partners, competitors.Sgt. LaShic Patterson (August 6, 2019) 2/2CR unloads vehicles at the Poti port for AS19
– Agile Spirit 19: Vaziani Military Base,

Tbilisi, Georgia Tbilisi ( ; ka, თბილისი ), in some languages still known by its pre-1936 name Tiflis ( ), is the capital and the largest city of Georgia, lying on the banks of the Kura River with a population of approximately 1.5 million peo ...

Maj. Kevin Sandell, U.S. Army Central Public Affairs (June 26, 2019) U.S. physician teaches Steppe Eagle 19 medical participants to 'race the Reaper'
/ref>Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr
(June 13, 2019) Poland Deal Lays Groundwork For Division-Strength Deployment
A division-scale exercise next year in Europe, Defender 2020, will be the largest in a quarter-century. Establishes 7 major elements going forward beyond 2020.Wendover Production
(27 August 2019) The US' Overseas Military Base Strategy
Estimates 800 current DoD bases, but some of them are transitory. Video clip. Multi-domain operations occur as overlapped, integrated operation of cyberspace, space (including satellite operations), land, maritime, and air.YouTub
(Sep 16, 2015) Perkins discusses operationalizing the Army Operating Concept
/ref> A multi-domain task force was stood up in 2018 in I Corps for the Pacific.Gen. David G. Perkins, U.S. Arm
November–December -2017/Multi-Domain-Battle-The-Advent-of-Twenty-First-Century-War/ (November–December 2017) ''Military Review'' III "Multi-Domain Battle The Advent of Twenty-First Century War"
/ref>Maj. Richard W. Gibso
(October 1, 2018) Applying Multi-Domain Concepts Against Counter-Space Threats
/ref>ASHLEY TOWNSHEND, THOMAS LONERGAN, AND TOBY WARDEN
(29 Sep 2021) THE U.S.-AUSTRALIAN ALLIANCE NEEDS A STRATEGY TO DETER CHINA’S GRAY-ZONE COERCION
/ref> Multi-domain battalions, first stood up in 2019, comprise a single unit for air, land, space, and cyber domains.Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(24 Jan 2019) Hack, Jam, Sense, & Shoot: Army Creates 1st Multi-Domain Unit
an MDO BN for Targeting, I Corps The MDO model recognizes that near-peer competitors might not actually seek conflict with each other, but perhaps merely near-term advantage in order to buy time for themselvesCaitlin Doornbo

/ref> in the face of overmatch. For example, the

X-37B The Boeing X-37, also known as the Orbital Test Vehicle (OTV), is a reusable robotic spacecraft. It is boosted into space by a launch vehicle, then re-enters Earth's atmosphere and lands as a spaceplane. The X-37 is operated by the United State ...

space plane A spaceplane is a vehicle that can fly and glide like an aircraft in Earth's atmosphere and maneuver like a spacecraft in outer space. To do so, spaceplanes must incorporate features of both aircraft and spacecraft. Orbital spaceplanes ten ...

can change its orbit; this capability has military applications.The

can change its orbit: * * * David, Leonar
(28 Jun 2022) US military's mysterious X-37B space plane zooms toward orbital record
* On 15 July 2020, Cosmos 2543 emitted a kinetic vehicle, which emitted a tertiary object. This maneuver is interpreted as a test of anti-satellite capability.Theresa Hitchens
(23 July 2020) Russian Sat Spits Out High-Speed Object In Likely ASAT Test
/ref>The Economis
(Aug 9th 2020) A Russian satellite weapon shows the danger of hazy rules in space
/ref> Cosmos 2542 has been tailing USA-245, a

KH-11 The KH-11 KENNEN (later renamed CRYSTAL,p.199-200 then Evolved Enhanced CRYSTAL System, and codenamed 1010 and Key Hole) is a type of reconnaissance satellite first launched by the American National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) in December 19 ...

.Joseph Trevithic
(30 January 2020) A Russian "Inspector" spacecraft now appears to be shadowing an American spy satellite
USA-245 is a KH-11 series satellite; Cosmos 2542 is now tailing the USA 245's movements with a precision of 150 to 300 kilometers. ''See

Hall thruster In spacecraft propulsion, a Hall-effect thruster (HET) is a type of ion thruster in which the propellant is accelerated by an electric field. Hall-effect thrusters (based on the discovery by Edwin Hall) are sometimes referred to as Hall thrus ...

'' Other multi-domain operations short of war,Catherine Ki
(21 June 2019) Vox Sentences: The strike that never happened
/ref> but still escalating the conflict, might include the shooting-down of military drones as in June 2019.Paul McCleary
(14 June 2019) Centcom confirms Reaper shoot-down, says Iran and Houthis fired at drones
/ref>Paul McLear
(September 23, 2019) NATO's not ready for Saudi-Style drone attacks; 'It's a serious problem'
/ref> Other operations short of war in 2018 include undeclared conflicts, involving proxy military units funded by oligarchs,polygraph.inf

/ref> but specifically disclaimed by near-peer competitors.

Battle of Khasham On 7 February 2018, the coalition established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) delivered massive air and artillery strikes on the Syrian pro-government forces near the towns of Khasham and Al Tabiyeh in the Dei ...

in Syria, January 2018 This is in direct response to the strategy which the US has promulgated since 1949.James Kitfiel
(16 October 2018) Russia's strategy, ISIS' future & countering China: CJCS Dunford speaks
/ref> Destruction of infrastructure such as fuel pipelines,Reuter
(8 May 2021) Cyber attack shuts down top U.S. fuel pipeline network
/ref>BB
(May 10, 2021) US Scrambles to Keep Fuel Flowing After Pipeline Cyberattack. Russian Cybercriminals Suspected
/ref>Dustin Vol
(10 May 2021) U.S. Blames Criminal Group in Colonial Pipeline Hack
DarksideDustin Vol
Associated Press (10 May 2021) US invokes emergency powers after cyberattack shuts crucial fuel pipeline
/ref>Brad D William
(27 May 2021) DHS Cyber Order Signals Shift To ‘Mandatory Measures’
/ref> the energy grid, Protecting electricity supply. Compromised infrastructure by rival providers.A probe of the grid was detected by Department of Energy, as reported in April 2019: * * * * More detail on the cyber attack was reported by North American Electric Reliability Corporation 9 July 2019. or the

GPS The Global Positioning System (GPS), originally Navstar GPS, is a Radionavigation-satellite service, satellite-based radionavigation system owned by the United States government and operated by the United States Space Force. It is one of t ...

network, or the

financial market A financial market is a market in which people trade financial securities and derivatives at low transaction costs. Some of the securities include stocks and bonds, raw materials and precious metals, which are known in the financial markets ...

s, or confidence in national

law and order In modern politics, law and order is the approach focusing on harsher enforcement and penalties as ways to reduce crime. Penalties for perpetrators of disorder may include longer terms of imprisonment, mandatory sentencing, three-strikes laws a ...

may be goals for partners, competitors, or adversariesKoebler, et. al. depending on where they might be in the continuum of conflict.Kyle Rempfer
(20 September 2019) Army's new chief looks to prep the force for large-scale combat
40th CSA mulls deployments for Large-Scale Combat Operations – LSCOBBC
Directed energy attacks on US embassies, and even the White House are cropping up, as reported April 2021.Katie Bo Williams and Jeremy Her

*See Havana syndrome —[https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-acknowledges-mysterious-health-attacks-occurred-us/story?id=77562804&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed Conor Finnegan and Ben Gittleson (May 7, 2021) White House acknowledges mysterious health attacks occurred in US, reviewing intel on incidents]LARA SELIGMAN and ANDREW DESIDERI
(05/10/2021) Russian spy unit suspected of directed-energy attacks on U.S. personnel
/ref> Conflicts of

belief A belief is an attitude that something is the case, or that some proposition is true. In epistemology, philosophers use the term "belief" to refer to attitudes about the world which can be either true or false. To believe something is to take i ...

, and conflicts of their underlying narratives can lead to social disorder, sometimes resulting in depression or

suicide Suicide is the act of intentionally causing one's own death. Mental disorders (including depression, bipolar disorder, schizophrenia, personality disorders, anxiety disorders), physical disorders (such as chronic fatigue syndrome), and s ...

.Star, Susan Leigh; Bowker, Geoffrey C.; Neumann, Laura J. (August 1997).
Transparency At Different Levels of Scale: Convergence between Information Artifacts and Social Worlds
. Thus

disinformation Disinformation is false information deliberately spread to deceive people. It is sometimes confused with misinformation, which is false information but is not deliberate. The English word ''disinformation'' comes from the application of the L ...

could be a tactic in the spectrum of conflict;MICHAEL STARR, AARON REICH, REUTERS Jerusalem Pos
(13 Feb 2022) Ukrainian president clarifies 'ironic' claim that Russia to attack on Wednesday
/ref>

Davey Alba Davey Alba is a Technology journalism, technology reporter who reports on Big Tech for Bloomberg News, after previously reporting online disinformation for ''The New York Times''. Early life and education Davey Alba was born in Manila, Philippin ...

and Adam Satarian
(26 September 2019) At Least 70 Countries Have Had Disinformation Campaigns, Study Finds
the number of countries with political disinformation campaigns more than doubled to 70 in the last two years"—''

The New York Times ''The New York Times'' (''the Times'', ''NYT'', or the Gray Lady) is a daily newspaper based in New York City with a worldwide readership reported in 2020 to comprise a declining 840,000 paid print subscribers, and a growing 6 million paid ...

'' *Nataliya Vasilyev
(11 Apr 2022) Russian spy chief ‘thrown in jail’ as Vladimir Putin ‘turns on security officials
150 FSB (successor to KGB) officers have been dismissedFreedberg--

Competition continuum

In 2021 the 40th Chief of Staff of the United States Army identified three dimensions of military competition: 1)

narrative A narrative, story, or tale is any account of a series of related events or experiences, whether nonfictional (memoir, biography, news report, documentary, travel literature, travelogue, etc.) or fictional (fairy tale, fable, legend, thriller (ge ...

, 2) direct (

zero-sum Zero-sum game is a mathematical representation in game theory and economic theory of a situation which involves two sides, where the result is an advantage for one side and an equivalent loss for the other. In other words, player one's gain is e ...

), and 3) indirect ( non-zero sum) competition. Narrative competition shapes and frames a baseline within which direct, or indirect competition with adversaries are related. In progressive stages of the narrative, allies, partners, neutral parties, observers, and rivals are encouraged to cooperate with the

protagonist A protagonist () is the main character of a story. The protagonist makes key decisions that affect the plot, primarily influencing the story and propelling it forward, and is often the character who faces the most significant obstacles. If a st ...

. Alternatively, adversaries are deterred from military conflict against the protagonist.Chief of Staff paper #2 (1 March 2021) The Army in Military Competition
/ref> If an adversary persists in direct competition, the protagonist simply continues to advance with direct competition, thereby gaining leverage over the adversary. The protagonist might find it possible only to impede the adversary; in this case, allies and partners may interoperate against the adversary for mutual advantage with the protagonist. If rivals or adversaries persist in indirect competition, the protagonists seek advantage over them by building relationships with cooperating allies, partners, neutral parties, or observers; in addition the protagonists keep a forward presence in the theater; the protagonists also must keep their capabilities relevant, competitive, and current. Cost becomes a factor, as adversaries learn by simply trying to keep up. Eventually indirect competition could stabilize; however, the 40th Chief of Staff notes competition is an infinite game.

Notes

Footnotes

References

{{reflist, 25em Anthropology Cognition Peace and conflict studies