Confrontation analysis (also known as dilemma analysis) is an
operational analysis
Operations research ( en-GB, operational research) (U.S. Air Force Specialty Code: Operations Analysis), often shortened to the initialism OR, is a discipline that deals with the development and application of analytical methods to improve decis ...
technique used to structure, understand and think through multi-party interactions such as negotiations. It is the underpinning mathematical basis of
drama theory
{{Use dmy dates, date=July 2021
Drama theory is one of the problem structuring methods in operations research. It is based on game theory and adapts the use of games to complex organisational situations, accounting for emotional responses that ca ...
.
It is derived from
game theory
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. Myerson, Roger B. (1991). ''Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict,'' Harvard University Press, p.&nbs1 Chapter-preview links, ppvii–xi It has appli ...
but considers that instead of resolving the game, the players often redefine the game when interacting. Emotions triggered from the potential interaction play a large part in this redefinition. So whereas game theory looks on an interaction as a single decision matrix and resolves that, confrontation analysis looks on the interaction as a sequence of linked interactions, where the decision matrix changes under the influence of precisely defined emotional ''dilemmas''.
[Se]
definition of Dilemma
/ref>
Derivation and use
Confrontation analysis was devised by Professor Nigel Howard
Nigel David Howard (18 May 1925 – 31 May 1979) was an English cricketer, who played for Lancashire and England. Born in Gee Cross, Hyde, Cheshire, he captained England on the tour to India in 1951-52. In the only four Test matches he playe ...
in the early 1990s drawing from his work on game theory and metagame analysis Metagame analysis involves framing a problem situation as a strategic game in which participants try to realise their objectives by means of the options available to them. The subsequent meta-analysis of this game gives insight in possible strategie ...
. It has been turned to defence,[Se]
The future of Libya
/ref> political, legal, financial["role playing... can also be used by investors in the form of "confrontation analysis' such as that organised by former military analyst Mike Young'sbr>Decision Workshops]
– ''Greek Dungeons and German Dragons'', James Macintosh, ''Financial Times
The ''Financial Times'' (''FT'') is a British daily newspaper printed in broadsheet and published digitally that focuses on business and economic current affairs. Based in London, England, the paper is owned by a Japanese holding company, Nik ...
'', 9 November 2011. and commercial applications.
Much of the theoretical background to General Rupert Smith
General Sir Rupert Anthony Smith, (born 13 December 1943) is a retired British Army officer and author of '' The Utility of Force''. He was a senior commander during the Gulf War, for which he was recognised with the award of the Distinguished ...
's book '' The Utility of Force'' drew its inspiration from the theory of confrontation analysis.
Confrontation analysis can also be used in a ''decision workshop'' as structure to support role-playing for training, analysis and decision rehearsal.
Method
Confrontation analysis looks on an interaction as a sequence of confrontations. During each confrontation the parties communicate until they have made their ''positions''[Se]
definition of Position
/ref> clear to one another. These positions can be expressed as a ''card table'' (also known as an options board[Se]
definition of Options Board/Card table
/ref>) of yes/no decisions. For each decision each party communicates what they would like to happen (their ''position'') and what will happen if they cannot agree (the ''threatened future''). These interactions produce ''dilemmas'' and the ''card table'' changes as players attempt to eliminate these.
Consider the example on the right
Rights are law, legal, social, or ethics, ethical principles of Liberty, freedom or entitlement; that is, rights are the fundamental normative rules about what is allowed of people or owed to people according to some legal system, social convent ...
(Initial Card Table), taken from the 1995 Bosnian Conflict. This represents an interaction between the Bosnian Serbs and the United Nations forces over the safe areas. The Bosnian Serbs
The Serbs of Bosnia and Herzegovina ( sr-Cyrl, Срби у Босни и Херцеговини, Srbi u Bosni i Hercegovini) are one of the three constitutive nations (state-forming nations) of the country, predominantly residing in the politi ...
had Bosniak
The Bosniaks ( bs, Bošnjaci, Cyrillic: Бошњаци, ; , ) are a South Slavic ethnic group native to the Southeast European historical region of Bosnia, which is today part of Bosnia and Herzegovina, who share a common Bosnian ancestry, cu ...
enclaves surrounded and were threatening to attack.
Each side had a position as to what they wanted to happen:
The Bosnian Serbs wanted (see 4th column):
* To be able to attack the enclaves
* NOT to withdraw their heavy weapons from the enclaves
* For the UN NOT to use air strikes
The UN wanted (See 5th column):
* The Bosnian Serbs NOT to attack the enclaves
* The Bosnian Serbs to withdraw their heavy weapons
* The Bosnian Serbs NOT to take hostages.
If no further changes were made then what the sides were saying would happen was (see 1st column):
*The Bosnian Serbs said they would attack the enclaves
*The Bosnian Serbs said they would NOT withdraw their heavy weapons
*The Bosnian Serbs said they would take hostages if the UN uses air strikes
*The UN said it would initiate air strikes. However the Bosnian Serbs DID NOT BELIEVE them. (Hence the question mark on the Card Table).
Confrontation analysis then specifies a number of precisely defined ''dilemmas'' that occur to the parties following from the structure of the card tables. It states that motivated by the desire to eliminate these dilemmas, the parties involved will CHANGE THE CARD TABLE, to eliminate their problem.
In the situation at the start the Bosnian Serbs have no dilemmas, but the UN has four. It has three ''persuasion dilemmas''[Se]
definition of Persuasion Dilemma
/ref> in that the Bosnian Serbs are not going to do the three things they want them to (not attack the enclaves, withdraw the heavy weapons and not take hostages). It also has a ''rejection dilemma''[Se]
definition of Rejection Dilemma
/ref> in that the Bosnian Serbs do not believe they will actually use the air strikes, as they think the UN will submit to their position, for fear of having hostages taken.
Faced with these dilemmas, the UN modified the card table to eliminate its dilemmas. It took two actions:
Firstly, it withdrew its forces from the positions where they were vulnerable to being taken hostage. This action eliminated the Bosnian Serbs' option (card) of taking hostages.
Secondly, with the addition of the Rapid Reaction Force
A rapid reaction force is a military or police unit designed to respond in very short time frames to emergencies. When used in reference to police forces such as SWAT teams, the time frame is minutes, while in military applications, such as with t ...
, and in particular its artillery the UN had an additional capability to engage Bosnian Serb weapons; they added the card "Use artillery against Bosnian Serbs". Because of this, the UN's threat of air strikes became more credible. The situation changed to that of the Second Card Table:
The Bosnian Serbs wanted (see 4th column):
* To be able to attack the enclaves
* NOT to withdraw heavy weapons from the enclaves
* For the UN NOT to use air strikes
* For the UN NOT to use artillery
The UN wanted (See 5th column):
* The Bosnian Serbs NOT to attack the enclaves
* The Bosnian Serbs to withdraw their heavy weapons
If no further changes were made then what the sides were saying would happen was (see 1st column):
*The Bosnian Serbs said they would attack the enclaves, but the UN did not believe them.
*The Bosnian Serbs said they would NOT withdraw their heavy weapons, but the UN did not believe them.
*The UN said it would use artillery. The Bosnian Serbs believed this.
*The UN said it would use air strikes. This time, however, the Bosnian Serbs believed them.
Faced with this new situation, the Bosnian Serbs modified their position to accept the UN proposal. The final table was an agreement as shown in the Final Card table (see thumbnail and picture).
Confrontation analysis does not necessarily produce a win-win solution (although end states are more likely to remain stable if they do); however, the word ''confrontation'' should not necessarily imply that any negotiations should be carried out in an aggressive way.
The ''card tables'' are isomorphic to game theory
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. Myerson, Roger B. (1991). ''Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict,'' Harvard University Press, p.&nbs1 Chapter-preview links, ppvii–xi It has appli ...
models, but are not built with the aim of finding a ''solution''. Instead, the aim is to find the dilemmas facing characters and so help to predict how they will change the table itself. Such prediction requires not only analysis of the model and its dilemmas, but also exploration of the reality outside the model; without this it is impossible to decide which ways of changing the model in order to eliminate dilemmas might be rationalized by the characters.
Sometimes analysis of the ticks and crosses can be supported by values showing the payoff to each of the parties.[Se]
understanding the tables used in confrontation analysis
/ref>
References
External links
Dilemmas Galore
– A user discussion group. Deals with applications of Confrontation analysis to current politics, military campaigns, business problems, psychology, etc. Also contains a good introduction and glossary of the terms used in Confrontation Analysis.
Dilemma Explorer
- A software application to do Confrontation Analysis
Confrontation Manager
— A software application using an earlier version of Confrontation Analysis.
Confronteer
an iPhone app to do Confrontation Analysis.
* N. Howard,
Confrontation Analysis: How to win operations other than war
, CCRP Publications, 1999.
* P. Bennett, J. Bryant and N. Howard, 'Drama Theory and Confrontation Analysis' — can be found (along with other recent PSM methods) in: J. V. Rosenhead and J. Mingers (eds) Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: problem structuring methods for complexity, uncertainty and conflict, Wiley, 2001.
* J. Bryant, The Six Dilemmas of Collaboration: inter-organisational relationships as drama, Wiley, 2003.
* N. Howard
Paradoxes of Rationality
, MIT Press, 1971.
How to structure disputes using Confrontation Analysis
contains an illustrated explanation of Confrontation Analysis.
Speed Confrontation Management
a brief "How to" manual on doing Confrontation Analysis without using an Options Table.
{{Use British English, date=December 2011
Formal sciences
Game theory
Operations research
Problem structuring methods