Conflict Continuum

A conflict continuum is a model or concept various social science researchers use when modeling conflict on a continuum from low to high-intensity, such as from aggression to irritation to explosiveness.

The mathematical model of game theory originally posited only a winner and a loser (a zero-sum game) in a conflict, but was extended to cooperation (a win-win situation and a non-zero sum game), and lets users specify any point between cooperation, peace,A state of Nash equilibrium rivalry, contest, crisis,James McConvill
Chief of Staff paper #1, Headquarters, Department of the Army (16 March 2021) Army Multi-Domain Transformation: Ready to Win in Competition and Conflict
unclassified version and conflict among stakeholders.

Overview

By the decade of the 2010s, military planners realized that additional capabilities in communications, sensors and weapons countermeasures made it possible for competitors to react to a contestant's moves in the "gray zone" just short of conflict. In 2018 Kelly McCoy identified a continuum within competition itself, as explored in the United States Joint Staff's Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning (JCIC), up to the point just short of armed conflict, while noting Perkins' connection to deterrence in the continuum. In 2020, Donald Stoker and Craig Whiteside cautioned that for strategists, the " gray zone" must not blur peace and war; they offered an analysis of the need for strategists to clearly distinguish peace, competition, contest, conflict, and war.

''Standoff'' is the condition of deadlock between antagonists,''Standoff'', Noun: A deadlocked confrontation between antagonists. sometimes measured by the distance between them (standoff distance). For antagonists in a non-zero sum game, von Neumann and Morgenstern showed in 1944 that this condition is equivalent to a zero-sum game with +1 antagonists, where the +1st player ("the fictitious player") is not an entity. Rather the fictitious player represents the global profit (or loss) of the players in the non-zero sum game.
If we reduce this game to a zero-sum 3-player game by the introduction of a fictitious player 3, then the characteristic function becomes the one given In Tibor Scitovsky's terminology (more commonly known as the Kaldor–Hicks criterion), this global profit (or loss) of the +1st player represents the amount that the gainers would have been prepared to pay to the losers (or, in a global loss, the global amount that the players have lost in total), in order to attain a desired global policy.

''Overmatch'' is the condition where protagonist A is able to present multiple dilemmas to an antagonist E. Thus if E can recognize that E risks total destruction (annihilation), then it is possible to bring an end to conflict between A and E. If A can bring about overmatch for all E's, the hegemony of A would result, temporarily. In other confrontations between A and the Es, ''deterrence'' can be the mutual recognition that power need not be used to destroy one another (mutually assured destruction). Instead A might display or project its power to the Es as a substitute for battle with them.Yasuhito Tanaka (9 Sep 2018) On zero-sum game formulation of non zero-sum game
/ref> If A's power can remain leashed (potential rather than kinetic) then soft power and hard power are also optional possibilities on a continuum of possible conflict between A and the Es.Matthew Rothenberg (6/19/2019) For the industrial Internet of Things, defense in depth is a requirement
/ref>

Various continuum models

Elise Boulding's conflict continuum

Elise M. Boulding was a Quaker sociologist influenced by the events of World War II. Examining how war becomes peace, she posited a continuum between and .

This is Boulding's conflict continuum:
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Andra Medea's types of conflict

Theorist Andra Medea seeks to explain how individuals, small groups, organizations, families, ethnicities, and even whole nations function when disputes arise between them. She posits that there are four types or levels of conflict, each operating under distinct rules:
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Each level moving from first to fourth is characterized by increasing degrees of separation from reality, and decreasing degrees of maturity, in this context, defined as the ability to control anger and settle differences without violence or destruction. Problem-solving behavior is based in reality and maturity, and is therefore more rational and mature than domination. Domination is more rational and mature than blind behavior, which is more rational and mature than the Rogue Messiah.

However, each level moving from fourth to first is more capable than the one below it at forcing victory in a conflict. The rogue messiah overpowers blind behavior, blind behavior thwarts domination, and domination deadlocks problem-solving.

Perkins' continuum of conflict

Before 2017, winning a conflict was seen as the objective of the US Army.Army Operating Concept: Win in a Complex World —Gen. David G. Perkins
/ref> By 2018, the US Air Force showed it was important to reformulate this strategy, as part of a larger process of (MDO), which involve more than an army in a theater of war (World War II and Cold War model). Specifically, MDO can offer options short of war which can defuse armed conflict from total war into deterrence, compromise, or cooperation between competitors.Douglas A. Ollivant (June 17, 2019) On Will and War
/ref>MDO Challenge (15 May 2019) *Start here* MDO 101
– General explanation of multi-domain operations (MDO) for the layma
Multi Domain Operations – Oct. 2, 2019
– Overview video 7:41 illustrating TRADOC pamphlet TP 525-3-1.Lt. Col. Edward A. Fraser and Command Sgt. Maj. Robert V. Abernethy (April 1, 2019) Strong Europe: A continental-scale combat sustainment laboratory
– Includes Euler diagram of European alliances, partners, competitors.Sgt. LaShic Patterson (August 6, 2019) 2/2CR unloads vehicles at the Poti port for AS19
– Agile Spirit 19: Vaziani Military Base, Tbilisi, GeorgiaMaj. Kevin Sandell, U.S. Army Central Public Affairs (June 26, 2019) U.S. physician teaches Steppe Eagle 19 medical participants to 'race the Reaper'
/ref>Sydney J. Freedberg, Jr
(June 13, 2019) Poland Deal Lays Groundwork For Division-Strength Deployment
A division-scale exercise next year in Europe, Defender 2020, will be the largest in a quarter-century. Establishes 7 major elements going forward beyond 2020.Wendover Production
(27 August 2019) The US' Overseas Military Base Strategy
Estimates 800 current DoD bases, but some of them are transitory. Video clip.

Multi-domain operations occur as overlapped, integrated operation of cyberspace, space (including satellite operations), land, maritime, and air.YouTub
(Sep 16, 2015) Perkins discusses operationalizing the Army Operating Concept
/ref> A multi-domain task force was stood up in 2018 in I Corps for the Pacific.Gen. David G. Perkins, U.S. Arm
November–December -2017/Multi-Domain-Battle-The-Advent-of-Twenty-First-Century-War/ (November–December 2017) ''Military Review'' III "Multi-Domain Battle The Advent of Twenty-First Century War"
/ref>Maj. Richard W. Gibso
(October 1, 2018) Applying Multi-Domain Concepts Against Counter-Space Threats
/ref>ASHLEY TOWNSHEND, THOMAS LONERGAN, AND TOBY WARDEN
(29 Sep 2021) THE U.S.-AUSTRALIAN ALLIANCE NEEDS A STRATEGY TO DETER CHINA’S GRAY-ZONE COERCION
/ref> Multi-domain battalions, first stood up in 2019, comprise a single unit for air, land, space, and cyber domains.Sydney J. Freedberg Jr
(24 Jan 2019) Hack, Jam, Sense, & Shoot: Army Creates 1st Multi-Domain Unit
an MDO BN for Targeting, I Corps

The MDO model recognizes that near-peer competitors might not actually seek conflict with each other, but perhaps merely near-term advantage in order to buy time for themselvesCaitlin Doornbo

/ref> in the face of overmatch. For example, the X-37B space plane can change its orbit; this capability has military applications.The X-37B space plane can change its orbit:
*
*
* David, Leonar
(28 Jun 2022) US military's mysterious X-37B space plane zooms toward orbital record
* On 15 July 2020, Cosmos 2543 emitted a kinetic vehicle, which emitted a tertiary object. This maneuver is interpreted as a test of anti-satellite capability.Theresa Hitchens
(23 July 2020) Russian Sat Spits Out High-Speed Object In Likely ASAT Test
/ref>The Economis
(Aug 9th 2020) A Russian satellite weapon shows the danger of hazy rules in space
/ref> Cosmos 2542 has been tailing USA-245, a KH-11.Joseph Trevithic
(30 January 2020) A Russian "Inspector" spacecraft now appears to be shadowing an American spy satellite
USA-245 is a KH-11 series satellite; Cosmos 2542 is now tailing the USA 245's movements with a precision of 150 to 300 kilometers. ''See Hall thruster'' Other multi-domain operations short of war,Catherine Ki
(21 June 2019) Vox Sentences: The strike that never happened
/ref> but still escalating the conflict, might include the shooting-down of military drones as in June 2019.Paul McCleary
(14 June 2019) Centcom confirms Reaper shoot-down, says Iran and Houthis fired at drones
/ref>Paul McLear
(September 23, 2019) NATO's not ready for Saudi-Style drone attacks; 'It's a serious problem'
/ref>

Other operations short of war in 2018 include undeclared conflicts, involving proxy military units funded by oligarchs,polygraph.inf

/ref> but specifically disclaimed by near-peer competitors. Battle of Khasham in Syria, January 2018 This is in direct response to the strategy which the US has promulgated since 1949.James Kitfiel
(16 October 2018) Russia's strategy, ISIS' future & countering China: CJCS Dunford speaks
/ref>
Destruction of infrastructure such as fuel pipelines,Reuter
(8 May 2021) Cyber attack shuts down top U.S. fuel pipeline network
/ref>BB
(May 10, 2021) US Scrambles to Keep Fuel Flowing After Pipeline Cyberattack. Russian Cybercriminals Suspected
/ref>Dustin Vol
(10 May 2021) U.S. Blames Criminal Group in Colonial Pipeline Hack
DarksideDustin Vol
Associated Press (10 May 2021) US invokes emergency powers after cyberattack shuts crucial fuel pipeline
/ref>Brad D William
(27 May 2021) DHS Cyber Order Signals Shift To ‘Mandatory Measures’
/ref> the energy grid, Protecting electricity supply. Compromised infrastructure by rival providers.A probe of the grid was detected by Department of Energy, as reported in April 2019:
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*
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* More detail on the cyber attack was reported by North American Electric Reliability Corporation 9 July 2019. or the GPS network, or the financial markets, or confidence in national law and order may be goals for partners, competitors, or adversariesKoebler, et. al. depending on where they might be in the continuum of conflict.Kyle Rempfer
(20 September 2019) Army's new chief looks to prep the force for large-scale combat
40th CSA mulls deployments for Large-Scale Combat Operations – LSCOBBC


Directed energy attacks on US embassies, and even the White House are cropping up, as reported April 2021.Katie Bo Williams and Jeremy Her

*See Havana syndrome —[https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-acknowledges-mysterious-health-attacks-occurred-us/story?id=77562804&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_heads_hero_live_hero_hed Conor Finnegan and Ben Gittleson (May 7, 2021) White House acknowledges mysterious health attacks occurred in US, reviewing intel on incidents]LARA SELIGMAN and ANDREW DESIDERI
(05/10/2021) Russian spy unit suspected of directed-energy attacks on U.S. personnel
/ref>

Conflicts of belief, and conflicts of their underlying narratives can lead to social disorder, sometimes resulting in depression or suicide.Star, Susan Leigh; Bowker, Geoffrey C.; Neumann, Laura J. (August 1997).
Transparency At Different Levels of Scale: Convergence between Information Artifacts and Social Worlds
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Thus disinformation could be a tactic in the spectrum of conflict;MICHAEL STARR, AARON REICH, REUTERS Jerusalem Pos
(13 Feb 2022) Ukrainian president clarifies 'ironic' claim that Russia to attack on Wednesday
/ref> Davey Alba and Adam Satarian
(26 September 2019) At Least 70 Countries Have Had Disinformation Campaigns, Study Finds
the number of countries with political disinformation campaigns more than doubled to 70 in the last two years"—''The New York Times''
*Nataliya Vasilyev
(11 Apr 2022) Russian spy chief ‘thrown in jail’ as Vladimir Putin ‘turns on security officials
150 FSB (successor to KGB) officers have been dismissedFreedberg--

Competition continuum

In 2021 the 40th Chief of Staff of the United States Army identified three dimensions of military competition: 1) narrative, 2) direct (zero-sum), and 3) indirect ( non-zero sum) competition. Narrative competition shapes and frames a baseline within which direct, or indirect competition with adversaries are related. In progressive stages of the narrative, allies, partners, neutral parties, observers, and rivals are encouraged to cooperate with the protagonist. Alternatively, adversaries are deterred from military conflict against the protagonist.Chief of Staff paper #2 (1 March 2021) The Army in Military Competition
/ref>

If an adversary persists in direct competition, the protagonist simply continues to advance with direct competition, thereby gaining leverage over the adversary. The protagonist might find it possible only to impede the adversary; in this case, allies and partners may interoperate against the adversary for mutual advantage with the protagonist.

If rivals or adversaries persist in indirect competition, the protagonists seek advantage over them by building relationships with cooperating allies, partners, neutral parties, or observers; in addition the protagonists keep a forward presence in the theater; the protagonists also must keep their capabilities relevant, competitive, and current. Cost becomes a factor, as adversaries learn by simply trying to keep up. Eventually indirect competition could stabilize; however, the 40th Chief of Staff notes competition is an infinite game.

Notes

Footnotes

References

{{reflist, 25em

Anthropology
Cognition
Peace and conflict studies