The People's Republic of China has developed and possesses weapons of mass destruction, including chemical and nuclear weapons. The first of
China's nuclear weapons tests took place in 1964, and its first
hydrogen bomb
A thermonuclear weapon, fusion weapon or hydrogen bomb (H bomb) is a second-generation nuclear weapon design. Its greater sophistication affords it vastly greater destructive power than first-generation nuclear bombs, a more compact size, a lowe ...
test occurred in 1967. Tests continued until 1996, when
China
China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's List of countries and dependencies by population, most populous country, with a Population of China, population exceeding 1.4 billion, slig ...
signed the
Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
The Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) is a multilateral treaty to ban nuclear weapons test explosions and any other nuclear explosions, for both civilian and military purposes, in all environments. It was adopted by the United Nat ...
(CTBT). China has acceded to the
Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention
The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), or Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), is a disarmament treaty that effectively bans biological and toxin weapons by prohibiting their development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpil ...
(BWC) in 1984 and ratified the
Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in 1997.
The number of nuclear warheads in China's arsenal is a state secret. There are varying estimates of the size of China's arsenal. China was estimated by the
Federation of American Scientists to have an arsenal of about 260 total warheads as of 2015, the fourth largest nuclear arsenal amongst the
five nuclear weapon states acknowledged by the
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation ...
, and one of 320 total warheads by the ''
SIPRI Yearbook 2020'', the third largest. According to some estimates by US intelligence community, the country could "more than double" the "number of warheads on missiles that could threaten the United States by the mid-2020s".
[
Early in 2011, China published a defense white paper, which repeated its nuclear policies of maintaining a minimum deterrent with a no-first-use pledge. China has yet to define what it means by a "minimum deterrent posture". This is together with the fact that "it is deploying four new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, invites concern as to the scale and intention of China’s nuclear upgrade".]
Chemical weapons
The People's Republic of China signed the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) on January 13, 1993, and ratified it on April 25, 1997.
China was found to have supplied Albania
Albania ( ; sq, Shqipëri or ), or , also or . officially the Republic of Albania ( sq, Republika e Shqipërisë), is a country in Southeastern Europe. It is located on the Adriatic and Ionian Seas within the Mediterranean Sea and shares ...
with a small stockpile of chemical weapons in the 1970s during the Cold War.
Biological weapons
China is currently a signatory of the Biological Weapons Convention
The Biological Weapons Convention (BWC), or Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), is a disarmament treaty that effectively bans biological and toxin weapons by prohibiting their development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpil ...
and Chinese officials have stated that China has never engaged in biological activities with offensive military applications. However, China was reported to have had an active biological weapons program in the 1980s.
Kanatjan Alibekov
Kanatzhan "Kanat" Alibekov ( kk, Қанатжан Байзақұлы Әлібеков, Qanatjan Baizaqūly Älıbekov; russian: Канатжан Алибеков, Kanatzhan Alibekov; born 1950), known as Kenneth "Ken" Alibek since 1992, is a Kazak ...
, former director of one of the Soviet germ-warfare programs, said that China suffered a serious accident at one of its biological weapons plants in the late 1980s. Alibekov asserted that Soviet reconnaissance satellites identified a biological weapons laboratory and plant near a site for testing nuclear warheads. The Soviets suspected that two separate epidemics of hemorrhagic fever
Viral hemorrhagic fevers (VHFs) are a diverse group of animal and human illnesses in which fever and hemorrhage are caused by a viral infection. VHFs may be caused by five distinct families of RNA viruses: the families ''Filoviridae'', ''Flav ...
that swept the region in the late 1980s were caused by an accident in a lab where Chinese scientists were weaponizing viral diseases.
US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright
Madeleine Jana Korbel Albright (born Marie Jana Korbelová; May 15, 1937 – March 23, 2022) was an American diplomat and political scientist who served as the 64th United States secretary of state from 1997 to 2001. A member of the Democratic ...
expressed her concerns over possible Chinese biological weapon transfers to Iran
Iran, officially the Islamic Republic of Iran, and also called Persia, is a country located in Western Asia. It is bordered by Iraq and Turkey to the west, by Azerbaijan and Armenia to the northwest, by the Caspian Sea and Turkmeni ...
and other nations in a letter to Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah) in January 1997. Albright stated that she had received reports regarding transfers of dual-use items from Chinese entities to the Iranian government which concerned her and that the United States had to encourage China to adopt comprehensive export controls to prevent assistance to Iran's alleged biological weapons program. The United States acted upon the allegations on January 16, 2002, when it imposed sanctions on three Chinese firms accused of supplying Iran with materials used in the manufacture of chemical and biological weapons. In response to this, China issued export control
Export control is legislation that regulates the export of goods, software and technology. Some items could potentially be useful for purposes that are contrary to the interest of the exporting country. These items are considered to be ''controlled ...
protocols on dual use biological technology in late 2002.
A biological program in China was described in a 2015 detailed study by the Indian Ministry of Defence funded Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses
The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) (formerly known as: Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)), New Delhi, is India's foremost think tank for advanced research in international relations, espec ...
. It pointed to 42 facilities, some in the same compound, that had the capacity, possibly latently, of research, development, production or testing of biological weapons.
According to Nuclear Threat Initiative, no evidence of the program's existence has been officially released.
Nuclear weapons
History
Mao Zedong
Mao Zedong pronounced ; also romanised traditionally as Mao Tse-tung. (26 December 1893 – 9 September 1976), also known as Chairman Mao, was a Chinese communist revolutionary who was the founder of the People's Republic of China (PRC) ...
decided to begin a Chinese nuclear-weapons program during the First Taiwan Strait Crisis
The First Taiwan Strait Crisis (also the Formosa Crisis, the 1954–1955 Taiwan Strait Crisis, the Offshore Islands Crisis, the Quemoy-Matsu Crisis, and the 1955 Taiwan Strait Crisis) was a brief armed conflict between the Communist People's ...
of 1954–1955 over the Quemoy
Kinmen, alternatively known as Quemoy, is a group of islands governed as a county by the Republic of China (Taiwan), off the southeastern coast of mainland China. It lies roughly east of the city of Xiamen in Fujian, from which it is separate ...
and Matsu Islands
The Matsu Islands ( or , ; Foochow Romanized: Mā-cū liĕk-dō̤), officially Lienchiang County (, ; Foochow Romanized: Lièng-gŏng-gâing), are an archipelago of 36 islands and islets in the East China Sea governed by the Republic of China ( ...
. While he did not expect to be able to match the large American nuclear arsenal, Mao believed that even a few bombs would increase China's diplomatic credibility. As a result of the Anti-Party Group
The Anti-Party Group ( rus, Антипартийная группа, r=Antipartiynaya gruppa) was a Stalinist group within the leadership of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union that unsuccessfully attempted to depose Nikita Khrushchev as Fi ...
incident in Soviet Union, Khrushchev's position within the international communist bloc became insecure for a time, thus necessitating the support of Chinese Communist Party
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP), officially the Communist Party of China (CPC), is the founding and sole ruling party of the People's Republic of China (PRC). Under the leadership of Mao Zedong, the CCP emerged victorious in the Chinese Civil ...
and Mao Zedong
Mao Zedong pronounced ; also romanised traditionally as Mao Tse-tung. (26 December 1893 – 9 September 1976), also known as Chairman Mao, was a Chinese communist revolutionary who was the founder of the People's Republic of China (PRC) ...
. The CCP thus traded its support for Khrushchev for Soviet technology of nuclear weapons. The Agreement on New Technology for National Defence was later signed in October, which promised Soviet support for Chinese development of nuclear weapons.
Construction of uranium-enrichment plants in Baotou and Lanzhou began in 1958, and a plutonium facility in Jiuquan
Jiuquan, formerly known as Suzhou, is a prefecture-level city in the northwesternmost part of Gansu Province in the People's Republic of China. It is more than wide from east to west, occupying , although its built-up area is mostly located in i ...
and the Lop Nur nuclear test site by 1960. The Soviet Union provided assistance in the early Chinese program by sending advisers to help in the facilities devoted to fissile material production and, in October 1957, agreed to provide a prototype bomb, missiles, and related technology. The Chinese, who preferred to import technology and components to developing them within China, exported uranium to the Soviet Union, and the Soviets sent two R-2 missiles in 1958.
That year, however, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev
Nikita Sergeyevich Khrushchev (– 11 September 1971) was the First Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1953 to 1964 and chairman of the country's Council of Ministers from 1958 to 1964. During his rule, Khrushchev s ...
told Mao that he planned to discuss arms control with the United States and Britain. China was already opposed to Khrushchev's post-Stalin
Joseph Vissarionovich Stalin (born Ioseb Besarionis dze Jughashvili; – 5 March 1953) was a Georgian revolutionary and Soviet political leader who led the Soviet Union from 1924 until his death in 1953. He held power as General Secretar ...
policy of "peaceful coexistence
Peaceful coexistence (russian: Мирное сосуществование, translit=Mirnoye sosushchestvovaniye) was a theory, developed and applied by the Soviet Union at various points during the Cold War in the context of primarily Marxist ...
". Although Soviet officials assured China that it was under the Soviet nuclear umbrella
The "nuclear umbrella" is a guarantee by a nuclear weapons state to defend a non-nuclear allied state. The context is usually the security alliances of the United States with Japan, South Korea, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (much ...
, the disagreements widened the emerging Sino-Soviet split
The Sino-Soviet split was the breaking of political relations between the China, People's Republic of China and the Soviet Union caused by Doctrine, doctrinal divergences that arose from their different interpretations and practical applications ...
. In June 1959, the two nations formally ended their agreement on military and technology cooperation, and in July 1960, all Soviet assistance with the Chinese nuclear program was abruptly terminated and all Soviet technicians were withdrawn from the program.
According to Arms Control and Disarmament Agency director William Foster, the American government, under Kennedy and Johnson
Johnson is a surname of Anglo-Norman origin meaning "Son of John". It is the second most common in the United States and 154th most common in the world. As a common family name in Scotland, Johnson is occasionally a variation of ''Johnston'', a ...
administration, was concerned about the program and studied ways to sabotage or attack it, perhaps with the aid of Taiwan
Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia, at the junction of the East and South China Seas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, with the People's Republic of China (PRC) to the northwest, Japan to the nort ...
or the Soviet Union, but Khrushchev was not interested. The Chinese conducted their first nuclear test, code-named 596
__NOTOC__
Year 596 ( DXCVI) was a leap year starting on Sunday (link will display the full calendar) of the Julian calendar. The denomination 596 for this year has been used since the early medieval period, when the Anno Domini calendar era bec ...
, on 16 October 1964, China's last nuclear test was on July 29, 1996. According to the Australian Geological Survey Organisation
Geoscience Australia is an agency of the Australian Government. It carries out geoscientific research. The agency is the government's technical adviser on all aspects of geoscience, and custodian of the geographic and geological data and knowle ...
in Canberra, the yield of the 1996 test was 1-5 kilotons of TNT. This was China's 22nd underground test and 45th test overall.
Size
China has made significant improvements in its miniaturization techniques since the 1980s. There have been accusations, notably by the Cox Commission, that this was done primarily by covertly acquiring the U.S.'s W88
The W88 is an American thermonuclear warhead, with an estimated yield of , and is small enough to fit on MIRVed missiles. The W88 was designed at the Los Alamos National Laboratory in the 1970s. In 1999, the director of Los Alamos who had pres ...
nuclear warhead
A nuclear weapon is an explosive device that derives its destructive force from nuclear reactions, either fission (fission bomb) or a combination of fission and fusion reactions ( thermonuclear bomb), producing a nuclear explosion. Both bom ...
design as well as guided ballistic missile
A ballistic missile is a type of missile that uses projectile motion to deliver warheads on a target. These weapons are guided only during relatively brief periods—most of the flight is unpowered. Short-range ballistic missiles stay within the ...
technology. Chinese scientists have stated that they have made advances in these areas, but insist that these advances were made without espionage.
The international community has debated the size of the Chinese nuclear force since the nation first acquired such technology. Because of strict secrecy it is very difficult to determine the exact size and composition of China's nuclear forces. Estimates vary over time. Several declassified U.S. government reports give historical estimates. The 1984 Defense Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is an intelligence agency and combat support agency of the United States Department of Defense, specializing in defense and military intelligence.
A component of the Department of Defense (DoD) and the ...
's Defense Estimative Brief estimates the Chinese nuclear stockpile as consisting of between 150 and 160 warheads. A 1993 United States National Security Council
The United States National Security Council (NSC) is the principal forum used by the President of the United States for consideration of national security, military, and foreign policy matters. Based in the White House, it is part of the Exe ...
report estimated that China's nuclear deterrent force relied on 60 to 70 nuclear armed ballistic missiles. The Defense Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is an intelligence agency and combat support agency of the United States Department of Defense, specializing in defense and military intelligence.
A component of the Department of Defense (DoD) and the ...
's ''The Decades Ahead: 1999 – 2020'' report estimates the 1999 Nuclear Weapons' Inventory as between 140 and 157. In 2004 the U.S. Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense (DoD, USDOD or DOD) is an executive branch department of the federal government charged with coordinating and supervising all agencies and functions of the government directly related to national secur ...
assessed that China had about 20 intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of targeting the United States. In 2006 a U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimate presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee
The Committee on Armed Services (sometimes abbreviated SASC for ''Senate Armed Services Committee'') is a committee of the United States Senate empowered with legislative oversight of the nation's military, including the Department of Def ...
was that "China currently has more than 100 nuclear warheads."
A variety of estimates abound regarding China's current stockpile. Although the total number of nuclear weapons in the Chinese arsenal is unknown, estimates vary from as low as 80 to as high as 2,000. The 2,000-warhead estimate has largely been rejected by diplomats in the field. It appears to have been derived from a 1990s-era Usenet
Usenet () is a worldwide distributed discussion system available on computers. It was developed from the general-purpose Unix-to-Unix Copy (UUCP) dial-up network architecture. Tom Truscott and Jim Ellis conceived the idea in 1979, and it wa ...
post, in which a Singaporean college student made unsubstantiated statements concerning a supposed 2,000-warhead stockpile.
In 2004, China stated that "among the nuclear-weapon states, China ... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal," implying China has fewer than the United Kingdom's 200 nuclear weapons. Several non-official sources estimate that China has around 400 nuclear warheads. However, U.S. intelligence estimates suggest a much smaller nuclear force than many non-governmental organizations.
In 2011, high estimates of the Chinese nuclear arsenal again emerged. One three-year study by Georgetown University raised the possibility that China had 3,000 nuclear weapons, hidden in a sophisticated tunnel network. The study was based on state media footage showing tunnel entrances, and estimated a 4,800 km (3,000 mile) network. The tunnel network was revealed after the 2008 Sichuan earthquake collapsed tunnels in the hills. China has confirmed the existence of the tunnel network. In response, the US military was ordered by law to study the possibility of this tunnel network concealing a nuclear arsenal. However, the tunnel theory has come under substantial attack due to several apparent flaws in its reasoning. From a production standpoint, China probably does not have enough fissile material to produce 3,000 nuclear weapons. Such an arsenal would require 9–12 tons of plutonium
Plutonium is a radioactive chemical element with the symbol Pu and atomic number 94. It is an actinide metal of silvery-gray appearance that tarnishes when exposed to air, and forms a dull coating when oxidized. The element normally exhibi ...
as well as 45–75 tons of enriched uranium
Enriched uranium is a type of uranium in which the percent composition of uranium-235 (written 235U) has been increased through the process of isotope separation. Naturally occurring uranium is composed of three major isotopes: uranium-238 (238U ...
and a substantial amount of tritium
Tritium ( or , ) or hydrogen-3 (symbol T or H) is a rare and radioactive isotope of hydrogen with half-life about 12 years. The nucleus of tritium (t, sometimes called a ''triton'') contains one proton and two neutrons, whereas the nucleus of ...
. The Chinese are estimated to have only 2 tons of weapons-grade plutonium, which limits their arsenal to 450–600 weapons, despite a 18-ton disposable supply of uranium, theoretically enough for 1,000 warheads.[
As of 2011, the Chinese nuclear arsenal was estimated to contain 55–65 ICBMs.
In 2012, STRATCOM commander C. Robert Kehler said that the best estimates were "in the range of several hundred" warheads and FAS estimated the total to be "approximately 240 warheads".
The ]U.S. Department of Defense
The United States Department of Defense (DoD, USDOD or DOD) is an executive branch department of the federal government charged with coordinating and supervising all agencies and functions of the government directly related to national secur ...
2013 report to Congress on China's military developments stated that the Chinese nuclear arsenal consists of 50–75 ICBMs, located in both land-based silos and Ballistic missile submarine platforms. In addition to the ICBMs, the report stated that China has approximately 1,100 short-range ballistic missile
A short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of about or less. In past and potential regional conflicts, these missiles have been and would be used because of the short distances between some countries and their rela ...
s, although it does not have the warhead capacity to equip them all with nuclear weapons.
In 2022, FAS estimated China's military stockpile in 350 nuclear warheads.
Nuclear policy
China is one of the five nuclear weapons states
Eight sovereign states have publicly announced successful detonation of nuclear weapons. Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the terms of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In order of acquisit ...
(NWS) recognized by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation ...
, which China ratified in 1992. China is the only NWS to give an unqualified security assurance to non-nuclear-weapon states:
:"China undertakes not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon States or nuclear-weapon-free zone
A nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) is defined by the United Nations as an agreement that a group of states has freely established by treaty or convention that bans the development, manufacturing, control, possession, testing, stationing or transpo ...
s at any time or under any circumstances."
Chinese public policy has always been one of the " no first use rule" while maintaining a deterrent retaliatory force targeted for countervalue targets.
In 2005, the Chinese Foreign Ministry
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China () is the first-ranked executive department of the State Council of the Chinese government, responsible for the foreign relations of the People's Republic of China. It is led ...
released a white paper
A white paper is a report or guide that informs readers concisely about a complex issue and presents the issuing body's philosophy on the matter. It is meant to help readers understand an issue, solve a problem, or make a decision. A white pape ...
stating that the government "would not be the first to use uclearweapons at any time and in any circumstance". In addition, the paper went on to state that this "no first use" policy would remain unchanged in the future and that China would not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against any non-nuclear-weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones.
China normally stores nuclear warheads separately from their launching systems, unless there is a heightened threat level.
China, along with all other nuclear weapon states and all members of NATO with the exception of the Netherlands, decided not to sign the UN treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), or the Nuclear Weapon Ban Treaty, is the first legally binding international agreement to comprehensively prohibit nuclear weapons with the ultimate goal being their total elimination. It ...
, a binding agreement for negotiations for the total elimination of nuclear weapons.
China refused to join talks in 2020 between the U.S. and Russia on extending their bilateral New START nuclear arms reduction treaty, as the Trump administration
Donald Trump's tenure as the 45th president of the United States began with his inauguration on January 20, 2017, and ended on January 20, 2021. Trump, a Republican from New York City, took office following his Electoral College victory ...
requested. China's position is that as its nuclear warhead arsenal is a small fraction of the U.S. and Russia arsenals, their inclusion in an arms reduction treaty is unnecessary.
Nuclear proliferation
Historically, China has been implicated in the development of the Pakistani nuclear program before China ratified the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, commonly known as the Non-Proliferation Treaty or NPT, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation ...
in 1992. In the early 1980s, China is believed to have given Pakistan a "package" including uranium enrichment technology, high-enriched uranium, and the design for a compact nuclear weapon. China also received stolen technology that Abdul Qadeer Khan brought back to Pakistan and Pakistan set up a centrifuge plant in China as revealed in his letters which state "(1)You know we had cooperation with China for 15 years. We put up a centrifuge plant at Hanzhong
Hanzhong (; abbreviation: Han) is a prefecture-level city in the southwest of Shaanxi province, China, bordering the provinces of Sichuan to the south and Gansu to the west.
The founder of the Han dynasty, Liu Bang, was once enfeoffed as th ...
(250km south-west of Xi'an
Xi'an ( , ; ; Chinese: ), frequently spelled as Xian and also known by other names, is the capital of Shaanxi Province. A sub-provincial city on the Guanzhong Plain, the city is the third most populous city in Western China, after Chongqi ...
). We sent 135 C-130 plane loads of machines, inverters, valves, flow meters, pressure gauges. Our teams stayed there for weeks to help and their teams stayed here for weeks at a time. Late minister Liu We, V. M. ice ministerLi Chew, Vice Minister Jiang Shengjie used to visit us. (2)The Chinese gave us drawings of the nuclear weapon, gave us 50 kg enriched uranium, gave us 10 tons of UF6 (natural) and 5 tons of UF6 (3%). Chinese helped PAEC akistan Atomic Energy Commission, the rival organisation to the Khan Research Laboratoriesin setting up UF6 plant, production reactor for plutonium and reprocessing plant."
Nuclear non-proliferation
The rapid growth of China's nuclear power has raised concerns in many countries, especially its neighboring countries. These nations believed that asking China to sign the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was the only way to stop its nuclear development. However, it was not until the 1980s that China had changed its attitude toward developing nuclear powers. Before the 1980s, the Chinese government strongly opposed joining the NPT, thinking that it was imbalanced. The Chinese government believed that the Treaty “ ervedthe interests of some States” and only favored the countries that already had nuclear weapons.[Wu, Haotan 2017 “China’s Non-proliferation Policy and the Implementation of WMD Regimes in the Middle East,” Asian Journal of Middle Eastern and Islamic Studies, 11:1, 65-82, DOI: 10.1080/25765949.2017.12023326] Additionally, the Chinese government thought this Treaty was discriminatory since many countries were attempting to restrict and deprive nuclear weapons of a country that had only just tested them successfully, rather than countries like the U.S. or U.S.S.R., which have at least 100 times more nuclear weapons. Therefore, China chose not to join the NPT at this time.
Beginning in the 1980s, China's policy and attitude toward nuclear weapons and the NPT had changed under the administration of Deng Xiaoping. Though China continued developing more advanced nuclear technology and weapons, by the 1980s, the country had indicated that it intended on accepting the terms of the NPT. Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang provided Washington with verbal assurances that China did not advocate or encourage nuclear proliferation and that all of their nuclear tests going forward were only for improving safety features on existing warheads. In 1990, though it was not a member of the NPT, China still attended the fourth NPT review conference. While it criticized the Treaty for not banning the deployment of nuclear weapons outside national territories and for not including concrete provisions for general nuclear disarmament, China had also stated that the Treaty had a positive impact and contributed to the maintenance of world peace and stability. In August 1991, shortly after France acceded to the NPT, China also declared its intention to join, though it again expressed its reservations about the Treaty's discriminatory nature. China formally acceded to the NPT in March 1992 as a nuclear weapons state and pledged for a “No-First-Use Policy" to show its commitments to sustain the regional and international security and maintain the stability between China and other countries.
Delivery systems estimates
2010 IISS Military Balance
The following are estimates of China's strategic missile forces from the International Institute of Strategic Studies
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) is a British research institute or think tank in the area of international affairs. Since 1997, its headquarters have been Arundel House in London, England.
The 2017 Global Go To Think ...
''Military Balance 2010''. According to these estimates, China has up to 90 inter-continental range ballistic missiles (66 land-based ICBMs and 24 submarine-based JL-2 SLBMs), not counting MIRV warheads.
2010 DoD annual PRC military report
The following are estimates from the United States Department of Defense 2010 report to Congress concerning the ''Military Power of the People's Republic of China''[Office of the Secretary of Defense – Annual Report to Congress: Military Power of the People's Republic of China 2010 (PD]
2006 FAS & NRDC report
The following table is an overview of PRC nuclear forces taken from a November 2006 report by Hans M. Kristensen
Hans Møller Kristensen (born April 7, 1961) is director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. He writes about nuclear weapons policy there; he is coauthor of the Nuclear Notebook column in the Bulletin of ...
, Robert S. Norris, and Matthew G. McKinzie of the Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Resources Defense Council
The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) is a United States-based 501(c)(3) non-profit international environmental advocacy group, with its headquarters in New York City and offices in Washington D.C., San Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, Bo ...
titled ''Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning''.[Kristensen, Hans M; Robert S. Norris; Matthew G. McKinzie. ]
Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning
''. Federation of American Scientists and Natural Resources Defense Council, November 2006.
Situation in 2013–14
After increasing during the Bush administration, the number of Chinese nuclear armed missiles capable of reaching North America leveled off during the Obama administration with delays in bringing forth new capabilities such as MIRV and operational sub launched missiles. The U.S. DOD 2013 report to Congress continued to state that China had 50–75 ICBMs.[ However the ]United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission
The United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission (informally, the US-China Commission, USCC) is an independent agency of the United States government. It was established on October 30, 2000, through the Floyd D. Spence National Defe ...
stated that it was possible for China to finally have an operational Submarine-launched ballistic missile capability by the end of the year. The US–China Economic and Security Review Commission stated in November 2014 that patrols with nuclear-armed submarines would take place before the end of the year, "giving China its first credible sea-based nuclear deterrent".
Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles
The Dongfeng 5A is a single-warhead, three-stage, liquid-fueled missile with a range
Range may refer to:
Geography
* Range (geographic), a chain of hills or mountains; a somewhat linear, complex mountainous or hilly area (cordillera, sierra)
** Mountain range, a group of mountains bordered by lowlands
* Range, a term used to i ...
of 13,000+ km. In 2000, General
A general officer is an officer of high rank in the armies, and in some nations' air forces, space forces, and marines or naval infantry.
In some usages the term "general officer" refers to a rank above colonel."general, adj. and n.". OED ...
Eugene Habiger of the U.S. Air Force
The United States Air Force (USAF) is the air service branch of the United States Armed Forces, and is one of the eight uniformed services of the United States. Originally created on 1 August 1907, as a part of the United States Army Sign ...
, then-commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, testified before Congress that China has 18 silo-based DF-5s. Since the early 21st century, the Second Artillery Corps have also deployed up to 10 Solid-fueled mobile DF-31
The Dong Feng 31 (; NATO reporting name CSS-10) is a third-generation long-range, road-mobile, three stage, solid-fuel rocket intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Dongfeng missile series developed by the People's Republic of Chi ...
ICBMs, with a range of 7,200+ km and possibly up to 3 MIRV
A multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) is an exoatmospheric ballistic missile payload containing several warheads, each capable of being aimed to hit a different target. The concept is almost invariably associated with i ...
s. China has also developed the DF-31A
The Dong Feng 31 (; NATO reporting name CSS-10) is a third-generation long-range, road-mobile, three stage, solid-fuel rocket intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Dongfeng missile series developed by the People's Republic of China. ...
, an intercontinental ballistic missile with a range of 11,200+ km with possibly 3–6 multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) capability.
China stores many of its missiles in huge tunnel complexes; US Representative Michael Turner referring to 2009 Chinese media reports said "This network of tunnels could be in excess of 5,000 kilometers (3,110 miles), and is used to transport nuclear weapons and forces," the Chinese Army newsletter calls this tunnel system an underground Great Wall of China
The Underground Great Wall of China (
) is the informal name for the vast system of tunnels China uses to store and transport mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Description
Due to the great secrecy surrounding the tunnels, not much i ...
.
Medium-range ballistic missiles
Approximately 55% of China's missiles are in the medium-range category, targeted at regional theater
Theatre or theater is a collaborative form of performing art that uses live performers, usually actors or actresses, to present the experience of a real or imagined event before a live audience in a specific place, often a stage. The perform ...
targets.
DF-3A/CSS-2
DF-21/CSS-5
Tactical cruise missiles
The CJ-10
The CJ-10 () is a second-generationGormley et al.: p.102 Chinese ground-based land-attack missile.United States Office of the Secretary of Defense: Annual Report To Congress 2015, p.39 It is derived from the Kh-55 missile. It is reportedly manufa ...
long-range cruise missile made its first public appearance in 2009 during a military parade on the 60th Anniversary of the People's Republic of China
The 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China took place on 1 October 2009. A military parade involving 10,000 troops and the display of many high-tech weapons was held in Tiananmen Square in Beijing and various celebrat ...
as a part of the Second Artillery Corps' long-range conventional missile forces; the CJ-10 represents the next generation in rocket weapons technology in the People's Liberation Army (PLA). A similar naval cruise missile, the YJ-62
The YJ-62 () is a Chinese subsonic anti-ship cruise missile. It is manufactured by the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation Third Academy.
Description
In a September 2014 article published in Joint Forces Quarterly, the YJ-62 is cr ...
, was also revealed during the parade; the YJ-62 serves as the PLA Navy's latest development into naval rocketry.
Long-range ballistic missiles
The Chinese categorize long-range ballistic missiles as ones with a range between 3000 and 8000 km.
China "keeps most of its warheads at a central storage facility in the Qinling mountain range, though some are kept at smaller regional storage facilities."
DF-4/CSS-3
The Dong Feng 4 or DF-4 (also known as the CSS-3) is a long-range two-stage Chinese intermediate-range ballistic missile with liquid fuel (nitric acid/UDMH). It was thought to be deployed in limited numbers in underground silos beginning in 1980. The DF-4 has a takeoff thrust of 1,224.00 kN, a takeoff weight of 82,000 kg, a diameter of 2.25 m, a length of 28.05 m, and a fin span of 2.74 m. It is equipped with a 2,190 kg nuclear warhead with 3,300 kt explosive yield, and its range is 5,500 km. The missile uses inertial guidance, resulting in a relatively poor CEP of 1,500 meters.
Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
DF-5A/CSS-4 Mod 2
The Dongfeng 5 or DF-5 is a 3-stage Chinese ICBM. It has a length 32.6 m and a diameter of 3.35 m. It weighs 183 tonnes and has an estimated range of 12,000–15,000 kilometers. The DF-5 had its first flight in 1971 and was in operational service 10 years later. One of the downsides of the missile was that it took between 30 and 60 minutes to fuel.
DF-31/CSS-10
The Dong Feng 31 (or CSS-10) is a medium-range, three stage, solid propellant intercontinental ballistic missile developed by the People's Republic of China. It is a land-based variant of the submarine-launched JL-2.
DF-41/CSS-X-10
The DF-41 (or CSS-X-10) is an intercontinental ballistic missile believed to be operational. It is designed to carry Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV), delivering multiple nuclear warheads.
Nuclear cruise missiles
The US DoD estimated in 2006 that the PRC was developing ground- and air-launched cruise missiles that could easily be converted to carry nuclear warheads once developed.[U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Military Power of the People’s Republic of China, 2006, May 23, 2006, pp. 26, 27.]
DH-10
The DongHai 10 (DH-10) is a cruise missile developed in the People's Republic of China. According to Jane's Defence Weekly, the DH-10 is a second-generation land-attack cruise missile (LACM), with over 4,000 km range, integrated inertial navigation system, GPS, terrain contour mapping system, and digital scene-matching terminal-homing system. The missile is estimated to have a circular error probable (CEP) of 10 meters.
CJ-10
The ChangJian-10 (Long Sword 10) is a cruise missile developed by China, based on the Hongniao missile family. It has a range of 2,200 km. Although not confirmed, it is suspected that the CJ-10 could carry nuclear warheads. An air-launched variant (named CJ-20) has also been developed.
HongNiao missile family
There are three missiles in this family: the HN-1, HN-2, and HN-3. Reportedly based on the Kh-SD/65 missiles, the Hongniao (or Red Bird) missiles are some of the first nuclear-capable cruise missiles in China. The HN-1 has a range of 600 km, the HN-2 has a range of 1,800 km, and the HN-3 has a range of 3,000 km.
ChangFeng missile family
There are 2 missiles in the Chang Feng (or Long Wind) family: CF-1 and CF-2. These are the first domestically developed long-range cruise missiles for China. The CF-1 has a range of 400 km while the CF-2 has a range of 800 km. Both variants can carry a 10 kt nuclear warhead.
Sea-based weapons
The submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) stockpile of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is thought to be relatively new. China launched its first second-generation nuclear submarine
A nuclear submarine is a submarine powered by a nuclear reactor, but not necessarily nuclear-armed. Nuclear submarines have considerable performance advantages over "conventional" (typically diesel-electric) submarines. Nuclear propulsion, ...
in April 1981. The navy currently has a 1 Type 092 ''Xia'' class SSBN at roughly 8000 tons displacement
Displacement may refer to:
Physical sciences
Mathematics and Physics
* Displacement (geometry), is the difference between the final and initial position of a point trajectory (for instance, the center of mass of a moving object). The actual path ...
. A second Type 092 was reportedly lost in an accident in 1985. The Type 092 is equipped with 12 JL-1 SLBMs with a range of 2150–2500 km. The JL-1 is a modified DF-21 missile. It is suspected that the Type 092 is being converted into a cruise missile submarine.
The Chinese navy has developed Type 094 ballistic missile submarine, open source satellite imagery has shown that at least 2 of these have been completed. This submarine will be capable of carrying 12 of the longer ranged, more modern JL-2s with a range of approximately 14000 km.
China is also developing the Type 096 submarine
The Type 096 is a projected class of ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) for China's People's Liberation Army Navy Submarine Force. The submarine is expected to begin construction in the early 2020s and be armed with the JL-3 SLBM
A submarine ...
, claimed to be able to carry up to 24 JL-3
The JL-3 () is a Chinese third-generation intercontinental-range submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in development. It will likely deploy on the Type 096, a predicted future class of Chinese ballistic missile submarine.
The missile i ...
ballistic missiles each. Some Chinese sources state that the submarine is already undergoing trials.
Nuclear bomber force
China's bomber force consists mostly of Chinese-made versions of Soviet aircraft. The People's Liberation Army Air Force
The People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF; ), also known as the Chinese Air Force (中国空军) or the People's Air Force (人民空军), is an aerial service branch of the People's Liberation Army, the regular armed forces of the Peo ...
has 120 H-6s (a variant of the Tupolev Tu-16
The Tupolev Tu-16 (NATO reporting name: Badger) is a twin-engined jet strategic heavy bomber used by the Soviet Union. It has been flown for almost 70 years, and the Chinese license-built Xian H-6 remains in service with the People's Liberation ...
). These bomber
A bomber is a military combat aircraft designed to attack ground and naval targets by dropping air-to-ground weaponry (such as bombs), launching torpedoes, or deploying air-launched cruise missiles. The first use of bombs dropped from an air ...
s are outfitted to carry nuclear as well as conventional weapons. While the H-6 fleet is aging, it is not as old as the American B-52 Stratofortress. The Chinese have also produced the Xian JH-7
The Xi'an JH-7 ( – fighter-bomber; NATO reporting name Flounder), also known as the FBC-1 (Fighter/Bomber China-1) Flying Leopard, is a tandem two-seat, twin-engine fighter-bomber in service with the People's Liberation Army Naval Air Force ...
''Flying Leopard'' fighter-bomber with a range and payload exceeding the F-111
The General Dynamics F-111 Aardvark is a retired supersonic, medium-range, multirole combat aircraft. Production variants of the F-111 had roles that included ground attack (e.g. interdiction), strategic bombing (including nuclear weapons ca ...
(currently about 80 are in service) capable of delivering a nuclear strike. China has also bought the advanced Sukhoi Su-30
The Sukhoi Su-30 (russian: Сухой Су-30; NATO reporting name: Flanker-C/G/H) is a twin-engine, two-seat supermaneuverable fighter aircraft developed in the Soviet Union by Russia's Sukhoi Aviation Corporation. It is a multirole fighter ...
from Russia; currently, about 100 Su-30
The Sukhoi Su-30 (russian: Сухой Су-30; NATO reporting name: Flanker-C/G/H) is a twin-engine, two-seat supermaneuverable fighter aircraft developed in the Soviet Union by Russia's Sukhoi Aviation Corporation. It is a multirole fighter ...
s (MKK and MK2 variants) have been purchased by China. The Su-30 is capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapon
A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW) is a nuclear weapon that is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territo ...
s.
China is alleged to be testing rumored new H-8 and Xian H-20
The Xian H-20 (; alternatively Xian H-X) is a projected subsonic stealth bomber design of the People's Liberation Army Air Force. It is referred to as a strategic project by the People's Liberation Army. The H-20 will be the first dedicated stra ...
strategic bombers which are either described as an upgraded H-6 or an aircraft in the same class as the US B-2, able to carry nuclear weapons.
Missile ranges
Image:Maximum Ranges for China’s Conventional SRBM Force.png, Maximum Ranges for China's Conventional SRBM
A short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range of about or less. In past and potential regional conflicts, these missiles have been and would be used because of the short distances between some countries and their rela ...
Force (2006). Note: China currently is capable of deploying ballistic missile forces to support a variety of regional contingencies.
Image:PLA ballistic missiles range.jpg, Medium
Medium may refer to:
Science and technology
Aviation
*Medium bomber, a class of war plane
*Tecma Medium, a French hang glider design
Communication
* Media (communication), tools used to store and deliver information or data
* Medium of ...
and Intercontinental
Intercontinental is an adjective to describe something which relates to more than one continent.
Intercontinental may also refer to:
* Intercontinental ballistic missile, a long-range guided ballistic missile
* InterContinental Hotels Group ( ...
Range Ballistic Missiles (2007). Note: China currently is capable of targeting its nuclear forces throughout the region and most of the world, including the continental United States. Newer systems, such as the DF-31
The Dong Feng 31 (; NATO reporting name CSS-10) is a third-generation long-range, road-mobile, three stage, solid-fuel rocket intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Dongfeng missile series developed by the People's Republic of Chi ...
, DF-31A
The Dong Feng 31 (; NATO reporting name CSS-10) is a third-generation long-range, road-mobile, three stage, solid-fuel rocket intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Dongfeng missile series developed by the People's Republic of China. ...
, and JL-2, will give China a more survivable nuclear force.
Image:Surface-to-Air Missile Coverage over the Taiwan Strait.png, Surface-to-Air Missile Coverage over the Taiwan Strait (2006). Note: This map depicts notional coverage provided by China's SA-10, SA-20 SAM systems, as well as the soon-to-be acquired S-300PMU
The S-300 ( NATO reporting name SA-10 Grumble) is a series of long range surface-to-air missile systems developed and operated by the former Soviet Union, now fielded by the militaries of Russia and Ukraine as well as several other former Ea ...
2. Actual coverage would be non-contiguous and dependent upon precise deployment sites.
See also
*Two Bombs, One Satellite
Two Bombs, One Satellite () was an early nuclear and space project of the People's Republic of China. ''Two Bombs'' refers to the atomic bomb (and later the hydrogen bomb) and the intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), while ''One Satellite' ...
*863 Program
The 863 program () or State High-Tech Development Plan () was a program funded and administered by the government of the People's Republic of China intended to stimulate the development of advanced technologies in a wide range of fields for th ...
*Chinese space program
The space program of the People's Republic of China is directed by the China National Space Administration (CNSA). China's space program has overseen the development and launch of ballistic missiles, thousands of artificial satellites, manned ...
*List of nuclear weapons tests of China
The List of nuclear weapons tests is a listing of the Chinese nuclear tests conducted from 1964 through 1996. Most listings of the Chinese tests show 45 tests in the series with 45 devices, with 23 tests being atmospheric. Discrepancies betw ...
*List of states with nuclear weapons
Eight sovereign states have publicly announced successful detonation of nuclear weapons. Five are considered to be nuclear-weapon states (NWS) under the terms of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In order of acquisit ...
* People's Liberation Army
*Taiwan and weapons of mass destruction
Taiwan pursued a number of weapons of mass destruction programs from 1949 to the late 1980s. The final secret nuclear weapons program was shut down in the late 1980s under US pressure after completing all stages of weapons development besides fina ...
*Underground Great Wall of China
The Underground Great Wall of China (
) is the informal name for the vast system of tunnels China uses to store and transport mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles.
Description
Due to the great secrecy surrounding the tunnels, not much i ...
References
Further reading
*Federation of American Scientists et al. (2006)
Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning
China Nuclear Forces Guide
Federation of American Scientists
See Edouard Valensi, China's Winning Nuclear Strategy: To Blind the American Tiger, Twelve Tables Publishers, 2022.
External links
CSIS Missile Threat – China
Archival Documents on the Chinese Nuclear Program
at The Wilson Center Digital Archive
The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars (or Wilson Center) is a quasi-government entity and think tank which conducts research to inform public policy. Located in the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washi ...
Chinese Nuclear Weapon Testing Video
a
sonicbomb.com
Federation of American Scientists
Nuclear Threat Initiative on China
Chinese Defence Today
* Jeffrey Lewis
"The ambiguous arsenal"
''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
The ''Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists'' is a nonprofit organization concerning science and global security issues resulting from accelerating technological advances that have negative consequences for humanity. The ''Bulletin'' publishes conte ...
'', May/June 2005.
Defense Estimative Brief, Nuclear Weapons Systems in China
Defense Intelligence Agency
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) is an intelligence agency and combat support agency of the United States Department of Defense, specializing in defense and military intelligence.
A component of the Department of Defense (DoD) and the ...
, 24 April 1984
Report to Congress on Status of China, India and Pakistan Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs
United States National Security Council
The United States National Security Council (NSC) is the principal forum used by the President of the United States for consideration of national security, military, and foreign policy matters. Based in the White House, it is part of the Exe ...
, July 28, 1993
Nuclear Files.org
Information on the background of nuclear weapons in China
Annotated bibliography for the Chinese nuclear weapons program
from the Alsos Digital Library for Nuclear Issues The Alsos Digital Library for Nuclear Issues is a searchable collection of vetted annotations and bibliographic information for resources including books, articles, films, CD-ROMs, and websites pertaining to nuclear topics. Part of the United States ...
{{Portal bar, China, Nuclear technology
Weapons of mass destruction by country
Military of the People's Republic of China
Nuclear program of the People's Republic of China
1964 in military history