''Chinaman's chance'' is an offensive American idiom which means that a person has little or no chance at success, synonymous with similar idioms of improbability such as ''a snowball's chance in hell'' or ''when pigs fly''. Although the origin of the phrase is unclear, it may refer to the historical misfortunes which were suffered by

Chinese-American Chinese Americans are Americans of Han Chinese ancestry. Chinese Americans constitute a subgroup of East Asian Americans which also constitute a subgroup of Asian Americans. Many Chinese Americans along with their ancestors trace lineage from m ...

immigrants.

Meaning

The idiom is defined as meaning "no chance at all" in ''The Columbia Guide to Standard American English''. The phrase is sometimes used in extended form as ''not a Chinaman's chance'' or ''not a Chinaman's chance in hell'', indicating that the lives and safety of Chinese immigrants were not valued or fair treatment of Chinese immigrants was impossible.

Potential origins

The origin of the phrase is not well documented. In ''The Chinese looking glass'' (1967), Dennis Bloodworth asserts the Chinese people have a long association with gambling. He states they believe "it is better to be lucky than clever", concluding the ''

I Ching The ''I Ching'' or ''Yi Jing'' (, ), usually translated ''Book of Changes'' or ''Classic of Changes'', is an ancient Chinese divination text that is among the oldest of the Chinese classics. Originally a divination manual in the Western Zho ...

'' has encouraged the acceptance of chance and fate: "the philosophy that makes the Chinese the soothsayer's best customer makes him one of the world's outstanding gamblers, too." This in turn resulted in a resilient attitude in response to misfortune and bad luck: "in the course of a long and turbulent history he Chinese havesooner or later overthrown by violence every single major dynasty that

ave ''Alta Velocidad Española'' (''AVE'') is a service of high-speed rail in Spain operated by Renfe, the Spanish national railway company, at speeds of up to . As of December 2021, the Spanish high-speed rail network, on part of which the AVE s ...

misruled

hem A hem in sewing is a garment finishing method, where the edge of a piece of cloth is folded and sewn to prevent unravelling of the fabric and to adjust the length of the piece in garments, such as at the end of the sleeve or the bottom of the ga ...

. Two potential origins of the phrase have been advanced, depending on the capitalization of the term. Either the phrase is written with the pejorative (capitalized) term " Chinaman", and ''Chinaman's chance'' refers to the treatment of Chinese immigrants to America in the 1800s, or the neutral (lower case) " chinaman" is used instead, with ''chinaman's chance'' referring to the fragility of fine porcelain.

Chinese immigration

One early potential origin for the phrase is from the

California Gold Rush The California Gold Rush (1848–1855) was a gold rush that began on January 24, 1848, when gold was found by James W. Marshall at Sutter's Mill in Coloma, California. The news of gold brought approximately 300,000 people to California fro ...

of 1849. The travel time for news of the gold rush to reach

China China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...

was quite long, and by the time Chinese immigrants arrived to

prospect Prospect may refer to: General * Prospect (marketing), a marketing term describing a potential customer * Prospect (sports), any player whose rights are owned by a professional team, but who has yet to play a game for the team * Prospect (mining ...

, many of the rich mines were already claimed. These Chinese immigrants who missed out had to work with only those lands which had already been exploited or which were rejected by others, meaning these late-arriving immigrants had a slim chance of success. The historical record, however, indicates that many Chinese combined efforts with each other and did very well in the goldfields, introducing mining techniques then unknown to non-Chinese. Alternatively, in 1920 the phrase was explained to describe the low probability for the Chinese in America to make a fortune at gold mining. Although there were Chinese in the gold mining camps soon after the news broke, "they were extremely unpopular ndthe slightest excuse was sufficient to warrant their being beaten or chased away; consequently they had no chance to get a real foothold" to establish mining rights. Chinese laborers fill Secret Town trestle

Chinese laborers fill Secret Town trestle

Another potential origin of the phrase ''Chinaman's chance'' traces it to the high probability of death or injury during the construction of the U.S. transcontinental railroad in the late 1860s. During its construction, unstable bottles of

nitroglycerine Nitroglycerin (NG), (alternative spelling of nitroglycerine) also known as trinitroglycerin (TNG), nitro, glyceryl trinitrate (GTN), or 1,2,3-trinitroxypropane, is a dense, colorless, oily, explosive liquid most commonly produced by nitrating ...

were used for blasting. Chinese workers reportedly were lowered over cliffs by rope and boatswain's chairs to set the nitroglycerine in place. In this work, if they were not lifted back up before the blast, serious injury or death would result. Although these accounts of construction techniques have been debunked as mythmaking after the work was complete, it is undeniable that many Chinese immigrants died while building the railroad. According to a newspaper article published in 1870, of bones from Chinese railroad workers were shipped to China for interment. The article calculated the bones were from 1,200 workers. It is estimated that 20,000 Chinese immigrants worked to build the railroad. Thure de Thulstrup - The Massacre of the Chinese at Rock Springs

Thure de Thulstrup - The Massacre of the Chinese at Rock Springs

A third possibility is in reference to the low probability of a fair verdict in murder trials with a Chinese victim, assisted partly by California state law first issued in 1850. The conviction of a white man for murdering a Chinese miner was overturned in the case of '' People v. Hall'' (1854). In that ruling, the

California Supreme Court The Supreme Court of California is the highest and final court of appeals in the courts of the U.S. state of California. It is headquartered in San Francisco at the Earl Warren Building, but it regularly holds sessions in Los Angeles and Sacra ...

expanded the definition of "black person" in the

California Crimes and Punishments Act of 1850 California is a U.S. state, state in the Western United States, located along the West Coast of the United States, Pacific Coast. With nearly 39.2million residents across a total area of approximately , it is the List of states and territori ...

to exclude "all races other than the Caucasian", throwing out evidence provided by a Chinese immigrant's testimony. The law was amended in 1863 to explicitly exclude testimony from witnesses of certain races: "No Indian, or person having one half or more of Indian blood, or Mongolian or Chinese, shall be permitted to give evidence in favor or against any white person." In a second case, ''People v. Brady'' (1870), the Supreme Court of California upheld the statute against the

equal protection clause The Equal Protection Clause is part of the first section of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. The clause, which took effect in 1868, provides "''nor shall any State ... deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal ...

of the

Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution The Fourteenth Amendment (Amendment XIV) to the United States Constitution was adopted on July 9, 1868, as one of the Reconstruction Amendments. Often considered as one of the most consequential amendments, it addresses citizenship rights and ...

, stating "the power of testifying is neither an object of desire, nor in any sense a right". New evidence laws were passed in 1872, superseding the prior rules and restoring the right to testify to Chinese Americans.

Bill Bryson William McGuire Bryson (; born 8 December 1951) is an American–British journalist and author. Bryson has written a number of nonfiction books on topics including travel, the English language, and science. Born in the United States, he has b ...

believed the phrase could be traced to the

Rock Springs Massacre The Rock Springs massacre, also known as the Rock Springs riot, occurred on September 2, 1885, in the present-day United States city of Rock Springs, Wyoming, Rock Springs in Sweetwater County, Wyoming. The riot, and resulting massacre of Chin ...

of 1885, referring to the forced expulsion of Chinese American residents, whose chances of living were slimmed by the dual threat of armed mobs and freezing overnight temperatures. In 1887, as many as 34 Chinese gold miners were massacred along the

Snake River The Snake River is a major river of the greater Pacific Northwest region in the United States. At long, it is the largest tributary of the Columbia River, in turn, the largest North American river that empties into the Pacific Ocean. The Snake ...

Oregon Oregon () is a U.S. state, state in the Pacific Northwest region of the Western United States. The Columbia River delineates much of Oregon's northern boundary with Washington (state), Washington, while the Snake River delineates much of it ...

by a gang of white horse thieves, typical of the

anti-Chinese violence in Oregon The history of racism in Oregon began before the territory even became a U.S. state. The topic of race was heavily discussed during the convention where the Oregon Constitution was written in 1857. In 1859, it became the only state to enter the U ...

of the time. Three were arrested and tried for the massacre in Oregon, but none were convicted.

Delicate chinaware

The lower-case term "chinaman" also has a non-pejorative interpretation as a dealer of porcelain from China; the "chinaware" they sold were notoriously delicate and fragile. Based on this, several scholars have advanced a hypothesis that "chinaman's chance" refers to the low probability of avoiding broken chinaware during the long journey from their sources in China to chinaman shops in Europe. William Morris advanced the lower-case "chinaman" hypothesis in 1957, stating "the phrase 'a chinaman's chance' accurately describes the odds against a merchant of china if he were to find 'a bull in his chinashop! In addition, Peter Tamony concluded in 1965 the phrase can be traced back to the sport of boxing in early 19th-century Great Britain. Tamony's hypothesis is based on terms such as having a ''crockery chin'' or a ''china chin'', which characterize some pugilists as delicate and fragile. An equivalent American idiom would be to say a fighter has a ''glass jaw''. Tamony stated the lowercase phrase ''chinaman's chance'' was transferred to the United States via Australia, but based this on his belief the first use of the phrase was from 1914, in a cartoon drawn by

Tad Dorgan Thomas Aloysius Dorgan (April 29, 1877 – May 2, 1929), also known as Tad Dorgan, was an American cartoonist who signed his drawings as Tad. He is known for his cartoon panel ''Indoor Sports'' and comic strip ''Judge Rummy'', as well as the man ...

and published in the ''

San Francisco Call ''The San Francisco Call'' was a newspaper that served San Francisco, California. Because of a succession of mergers with other newspapers, the paper variously came to be called ''The San Francisco Call & Post'', the ''San Francisco Call-Bulletin ...

''. In fact, the phrase was already in use by 1893, and as Kenneth Porter wrote in a ''

Western Folklore ''Western Folklore'' is a quarterly academic journal for the study of folklore published by the Western States Folklore Society (formerly the California Folklore Society). It was established in 1942 as the ''California Folklore Quarterly'' and obt ...

'' article published in 1966, "in American usage 'Chinaman's chance''is clearly referenceto the little chance a native of China would have in any controversy with white Americans. Americans who use the expression, if they consider its origin at all, probably associate it with the anti-Chinese agitation of the 1870's and '80's." Under this interpretation, the phrase may have originated as local slang in California and spread via the journalism of

William Randolph Hearst William Randolph Hearst Sr. (; April 29, 1863 – August 14, 1951) was an American businessman, newspaper publisher, and politician known for developing the nation's largest newspaper chain and media company, Hearst Communications. His flamboya ...

and his flagship newspaper ''

San Francisco Examiner The ''San Francisco Examiner'' is a newspaper distributed in and around San Francisco, California, and published since 1863. Once self-dubbed the "Monarch of the Dailies" by then-owner William Randolph Hearst, and flagship of the Hearst Corporat ...

'' in the 1890s.

Usage history

In describing a potential race between a bicyclist and a thoroughbred racing horse in 1893, ''The World'' quoted a horse expert as saying "The bicyclist would win sure ... I don't think the horse would have a Chinaman's chance to beat him." The capitalized term "Chinaman" had become "thoroughly entwined with anti-Chinese racial animus" by the early 20th century and the phrase "Chinaman's chance" carried the same pejorative connotations, alluding to the low probability of success resulting from "the endless social barriers that were thrown up against Chinese immigrants seeking opportunities to advance". In 2018,

Governor of West Virginia A governor is an administrative leader and head of a polity or political region, ranking under the head of state and in some cases, such as governors-general, as the head of state's official representative. Depending on the type of political r ...

Jim Justice James Conley Justice II (born April 27, 1951) is an American businessman and politician who has served as the 36th governor of West Virginia since 2017. Justice had a net worth of $1.2 billion in September 2018, making him the wealthiest person ...

used the phrase "Chinaman's chance" to describe the low probability of passing a natural gas tax, for which he received criticism.

Cultural usage

Literature

*''A Chinaman's Chance'', 1919 short story by American writer

Harold Lamb Harold Albert Lamb (September 1, 1892 – April 9, 1962) was an American writer, novelist, historian, and screenwriter. In both his fiction and nonfiction work, Lamb gravitated toward subjects related to Asia and Middle East. Lamb was an advocat ...

*''Chinaman's Chance'', 1938 short story mystery by American writer

Maxwell Grant Maxwell Grant was a pen name used by the authors of ''The Shadow'' pulp magazine stories from the 1930s to 1960s. Street & Smith, the publishers of ''The Shadow'', hired author Walter B. Gibson to create and write the series based on popular inte ...

*"Asia is rising against me. / I haven't got a chinaman's chance. / I'd better consider my national resources." —

Allen Ginsberg Irwin Allen Ginsberg (; June 3, 1926 – April 5, 1997) was an American poet and writer. As a student at Columbia University in the 1940s, he began friendships with William S. Burroughs and Jack Kerouac, forming the core of the Beat Gener ...

, ''America'' (1956) *''Chinaman's Chance'', 1978 thriller novel by American writer Ross Thomas *''A Chinaman's Chance'', poem in ''Dwarf Bamboo'' (1987) by Chinese-American poet

Marilyn Chin Marilyn Chin (陈美玲) is a prominent Chinese American poet, writer, activist, and feminist, as well as an editor and Professor of English. She is well-represented in major canonical anthologies and textbooks and her work is taught all over the ...

Nonfiction

*''Chinaman's Chance'', 1932 short recollection by American writer Arthur Mason * ''Chinaman's Chance'', 1940 autobiography by No-yong Park * ''Chinaman's Chance: The Life Story of Elmer Wok Wai'', 1969 memoir cowritten with Veta Griggs * ''A Chinaman's chance: the Chinese on the Rocky Mountain mining frontier'', 2000 narrative by Professor Liping Zhu * ''A Chinaman's chance: one family's journey and the Chinese American dream'', 2004 memoir by

Eric Liu Eric P. Liu (born 1968) is an American writer, former civil servant, and founder of Citizen University, a non-profit organization promoting civics education and awareness. Liu served as Deputy Assistant to President Clinton for Domestic Polic ...

Art

* ''Not a Chinaman's Chance'' (1893/94), wax sculpture and painting by

Charles Marion Russell Charles Marion Russell (March 19, 1864 – October 24, 1926), also known as C. M. Russell, Charlie Russell, and "Kid" Russell, was an American artist of the American Old West. He created more than 2,000 paintings of cowboys, Native Americans, an ...

* "Not a Chinaman's Chance" (2007), song released by

Steve Missal Stephen Missal (born 1948) is an artist from Albuquerque, New Mexico, who specializes in figure drawing, painting, and fantasy themed art. Missal lives in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife and their two children. He teaches at the Art Institute ...

on the album ''American Stories Through Song'' * ''A Chinaman's Chance, A Choy's Chance!'' (2019), six-movement concerto by

Jon Jang Jon Jang (; born March 11, 1954) is an American jazz pianist, composer, and bandleader. Of Chinese ancestry, he specializes in music which combines elements of jazz and Asian musics, and is known for musical works exploring international as we ...

paying tribute to the legacy of historian Philip Choy

Film

The phrase "a Chinaman's chance" is used in the following films: * '' Way Out West'' (1930; dir.

Fred Niblo Fred Niblo (born Frederick Liedtke; January 6, 1874 – November 11, 1948) was an American pioneer film actor, director and producer. Biography He was born Frederick Liedtke (several sources give "Frederico Nobile", apparently erroneously) in Yo ...

), by

William Haines Charles William Haines (January 2, 1900 – December 26, 1973) was an American actor and interior designer. Haines was discovered by a talent scout and signed with Goldwyn Pictures in 1922. His career gained momentum when he received favo ...

(as Windy) * '' Bad Girl'' (1931; dir.

Frank Borzage Frank Borzage (; April 23, 1894 – June 19, 1962) was an Academy Award-winning American film director and actor, known for directing '' 7th Heaven'' (1927), '' Street Angel'' (1928), '' Bad Girl'' (1931), '' A Farewell to Arms'' (1932), ''Man's ...

), by the actor James Dunn (as Eddie Collins). * ''Chinaman's Chance'' (1933; dir.

Ub Iwerks Ubbe Ert Iwwerks (March 24, 1901 – July 7, 1971), known as Ub Iwerks ( ), was an American animator, cartoonist, character designer, inventor, and special effects technician. Born in Kansas City, Missouri, Iwerks grew up with a contentious ...

), an animated short featuring

Flip the Frog Flip the Frog is an animated cartoon character created by American animator Ub Iwerks. He starred in a series of cartoons produced by Celebrity Pictures and distributed by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer from 1930 to 1933. The series had many recurring chara ...

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* '' You Only Live Once'' (1937; dir.

Fritz Lang Friedrich Christian Anton Lang (; December 5, 1890 – August 2, 1976), known as Fritz Lang, was an Austrian film director, screenwriter, and producer who worked in Germany and later the United States.Obituary ''Variety'', August 4, 1976, p. 6 ...

). * ''

Lost Horizon ''Lost Horizon'' is a 1933 novel by English writer James Hilton. The book was turned into a film, also called ''Lost Horizon'', in 1937 by director Frank Capra. It is best remembered as the origin of Shangri-La, a fictional utopian lamaser ...

'' (1937; dir.

Frank Capra Frank Russell Capra (born Francesco Rosario Capra; May 18, 1897 – September 3, 1991) was an Italian-born American film director, producer and writer who became the creative force behind some of the major award-winning films of the 1930s ...

). * '' Frontier Marshal'' (1939; dir.

Allan Dwan Allan Dwan (born Joseph Aloysius Dwan; April 3, 1885 – December 28, 1981) was a pioneering Canadian-born American motion picture director, producer, and screenwriter. Early life Born Joseph Aloysius Dwan in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Dwan, was ...

), by

Randolph Scott George Randolph Scott (January 23, 1898 – March 2, 1987) was an American film actor whose career spanned the years from 1928 to 1962. As a leading man for all but the first three years of his cinematic career, Scott appeared in a variety of ...

(as

Wyatt Earp Wyatt Berry Stapp Earp (March 19, 1848 – January 13, 1929) was an American lawman and gambler in the American West, including Dodge City, Deadwood, and Tombstone. Earp took part in the famous gunfight at the O.K. Corral, during which law ...

) to

Cesar Romero Cesar Julio Romero Jr. (February 15, 1907 – January 1, 1994) was an American actor and activist. He was active in film, radio, and television for almost sixty years. His wide range of screen roles included Latin lovers, historical figures in c ...

(as

Doc Holliday John Henry Holliday (August 14, 1851 – November 8, 1887), better known as Doc Holliday, was an American gambler, gunfighter, and dentist. A close friend and associate of lawman Wyatt Earp, Holliday is best known for his role in the event ...

). * ''

The People vs. Dr. Kildare ''The People vs. Dr. Kildare'' is a 1941 Drama (genre), drama directed by Harold S. Bucquet, starring Lew Ayres, Lionel Barrymore, Bonita Granville, and Laraine Day. Dr. Kildare performs an emergency operation on a crash victim. Plot Ice skating ...

'' (1941; dir. Harold S. Bucquet), by

Alma Kruger Alma Kruger (September 13, 1871 – April 5, 1960) was an American actress. Career Born in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania in 1871 (or 1868 according to other sources), Kruger had a long career on stage before appearing in films. From 1907 to 1935 ...

(as Molly Byrd). * ''

Silver Bullet In folklore, a bullet cast from silver is often one of the few weapons that are effective against a werewolf or witch. The term ''silver bullet'' is also a metaphor for a simple, seemingly magical, solution to a difficult problem: for example, pe ...

'' (1985; dir.

Dan Attias Daniel Attias (born December 4, 1951) is an American television director and producer. He is also director of his only feature film ''Silver Bullet'' from 1985, based on the novella by Stephen King. Attias' career has spanned four decades, dur ...

Gary Busey Gary Busey (; born 1944) is an American actor. He is best known for his portrayal of Buddy Holly in ''The Buddy Holly Story'' (1978), for which he was nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor and won the National Society of Film Critics ...

as Uncle Red * '' Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story'' (1993; dir.

Rob Cohen Rob Cohen (born March 12, 1949) is an American director and producer of film and television. Beginning his career as an executive producer at 20th Century Fox, Cohen produced and developed numerous high-profile film and television programs, inc ...

), when

Bruce Lee Bruce Lee (; born Lee Jun-fan, ; November 27, 1940 – July 20, 1973) was a Hong Kong and American martial artist and actor. He was the founder of Jeet Kune Do, a hybrid martial arts philosophy drawing from different combat disciplines that ...

(portrayed by

Jason Scott Lee Jason Scott Lee (; born November 19, 1966) is an American actor and martial artist. He played Mowgli in Disney's 1994 live-action adaptation of ''The Jungle Book'' and Bruce Lee in the 1993 martial arts film '' Dragon: The Bruce Lee Story''. He ...

) is on his way to America in a ship. * ''Railroad to Hell: A Chinaman's Chance'' (2008; dir.

Aki Aleong Assing "Aki" Aleong (born December 19, 1934) is a Trinidad and Tobago–born American character actor and singer who has also been active in songwriting and musical production. His first important role was in the 1957 movie ''No Down Payment ...

)

References

External links

The Chinese Question: political cartoon''
print (1871). * * * {{DEFAULTSORT:Chinaman's Chance Chinese-American history English-language slang American English idioms