In
game theory
Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions among rational agents. Myerson, Roger B. (1991). ''Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict,'' Harvard University Press, p.&nbs1 Chapter-preview links, ppvii–xi It has appli ...
, the centipede game, first introduced by
Robert Rosenthal in 1981, is an
extensive form game An extensive-form game is a specification of a game in game theory, allowing (as the name suggests) for the explicit representation of a number of key aspects, like the sequencing of players' possible moves, their choices at every decision point, th ...
in which two players take turns choosing either to take a slightly larger share of an increasing pot, or to pass the pot to the other player. The payoffs are arranged so that if one passes the pot to one's opponent and the opponent takes the pot on the next round, one receives slightly less than if one had taken the pot on this round, but after an additional switch the potential payoff will be higher. Therefore, although at each round a player has an incentive to take the pot, it would be better for them to wait. Although the traditional centipede game had a limit of 100 rounds (hence the name), any game with this structure but a different number of rounds is called a centipede game.
The unique
subgame perfect equilibrium (and every
Nash equilibrium
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...
) of these games results in the first player taking the pot on the first round of the game; however, in
empirical
Empirical evidence for a proposition is evidence, i.e. what supports or counters this proposition, that is constituted by or accessible to sense experience or experimental procedure. Empirical evidence is of central importance to the sciences and ...
tests, relatively few players do so, and as a result, achieve a higher payoff than in the subgame perfect and Nash equilibria. These results are taken to show that subgame perfect equilibria and Nash equilibria fail to predict human play in some circumstances. The Centipede game is commonly used in introductory game theory courses and texts to highlight the concept of
backward induction
Backward induction is the process of reasoning backwards in time, from the end of a problem or situation, to determine a sequence of optimal actions. It proceeds by examining the last point at which a decision is to be made and then identifying wha ...
and the
iterated elimination of dominated strategies, which show a standard way of providing a solution to the game.
Play
One possible version of a centipede game could be played as follows:
The addition of coins is taken to be an
externality
In economics, an externality or external cost is an indirect cost or benefit to an uninvolved third party that arises as an effect of another party's (or parties') activity. Externalities can be considered as unpriced goods involved in either co ...
, as it is not contributed by either player.
Formal Definition
The centipede game may be written as
where
and
. Players
and
alternate, starting with player
, and may on each turn play a move from
with a maximum of
rounds. The game terminates when
is played for the first time, otherwise upon
moves, if
is never played.
Suppose the game ends on round
with player
making the final move. Then the outcome of the game is defined as follows:
* If
played
, then
gains
coins and
gains
.
* If
played
, then
gains
coins and
gains
.
Here,
denotes the other player.
Equilibrium analysis and backward induction
![Centipede game](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/68/Centipede_game.png)
Standard game theoretic tools predict that the first player will defect on the first round, taking the pile of coins for himself. In the centipede game, a
pure strategy
In game theory, a player's strategy is any of the options which they choose in a setting where the outcome depends ''not only'' on their own actions ''but'' on the actions of others. The discipline mainly concerns the action of a player in a game ...
consists of a set of actions (one for each choice point in the game, even though some of these choice points may never be reached) and a
mixed strategy
In game theory, a player's strategy is any of the options which they choose in a setting where the outcome depends ''not only'' on their own actions ''but'' on the actions of others. The discipline mainly concerns the action of a player in a game ...
is a probability distribution over the possible pure strategies. There are several pure strategy
Nash equilibria
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...
of the centipede game and infinitely many mixed strategy Nash equilibria. However, there is only one
subgame perfect equilibrium (a popular refinement to the Nash equilibrium concept).
In the unique subgame perfect equilibrium, each player chooses to defect at every opportunity. This, of course, means defection at the first stage. In the Nash equilibria, however, the actions that would be taken after the initial choice opportunities (even though they are never reached since the first player defects immediately) may be cooperative.
Defection by the first player is the unique
subgame perfect equilibrium and required by any
Nash equilibrium
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...
, it can be established by
backward induction
Backward induction is the process of reasoning backwards in time, from the end of a problem or situation, to determine a sequence of optimal actions. It proceeds by examining the last point at which a decision is to be made and then identifying wha ...
. Suppose two players reach the final round of the game; the second player will do better by defecting and taking a slightly larger share of the pot. Since we suppose the second player will defect, the first player does better by defecting in the second to last round, taking a slightly higher payoff than she would have received by allowing the second player to defect in the last round. But knowing this, the second player ought to defect in the third to last round, taking a slightly higher payoff than he would have received by allowing the first player to defect in the second to last round. This reasoning proceeds backwards through the
game tree
In the context of Combinatorial game theory, which typically studies sequential games with perfect information, a game tree is a graph representing all possible game states within such a game. Such games include well-known ones such as chess, ch ...
until one concludes that the best action is for the first player to defect in the first round. The same reasoning can apply to any node in the game tree.
For a game that ends after four rounds, this reasoning proceeds as follows. If we were to reach the last round of the game, Player ''2'' would do better by choosing ''d'' instead of ''r'', receiving 4 coins instead of 3. However, given that ''2'' will choose ''d'', ''1'' should choose ''D'' in the second to last round, receiving 3 instead of 2. Given that ''1'' would choose ''D'' in the second to last round, ''2'' should choose ''d'' in the third to last round, receiving 2 instead of 1. But given this, Player ''1'' should choose ''D'' in the first round, receiving 1 instead of 0.
There are a large number of
Nash equilibria
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...
in a centipede game, but in each, the first player defects on the first round and the second player defects in the next round frequently enough to dissuade the first player from passing. Being in a Nash equilibrium does not require that strategies be rational at every point in the game as in the subgame perfect equilibrium. This means that strategies that are cooperative in the never-reached later rounds of the game could still be in a Nash equilibrium. In the example above, one Nash equilibrium is for both players to defect on each round (even in the later rounds that are never reached). Another Nash equilibrium is for player 1 to defect on the first round, but pass on the third round and for player 2 to defect at any opportunity.
Empirical results
Several studies have demonstrated that the Nash equilibrium (and likewise, subgame perfect equilibrium) play is rarely observed. Instead, subjects regularly show partial cooperation, playing "R" (or "r") for several moves before eventually choosing "D" (or "d"). It is also rare for subjects to cooperate through the whole game. For examples see McKelvey and Palfrey (1992), Nagel and Tang (1998) or Krockow et al. (2016) for a survey. Scholars have investigated the effect of increasing the stakes. As with other games, for instance the
ultimatum game
The ultimatum game is a game that has become a popular instrument of economic experiments. An early description is by Nobel laureate John Harsanyi in 1961. One player, the proposer, is endowed with a sum of money. The proposer is tasked with s ...
, as the stakes increase the play approaches (but does not reach) Nash equilibrium play. Since the empirical studies have produced results that are inconsistent with the traditional equilibrium analysis, several explanations of this behavior have been offered. To explain the experimental data, we either need some altruistic agents or some bounded rational agents.
Preference Based explanation
One reason people may deviate from equilibrium behavior is if some are
altruistic
Altruism is the principle and moral practice of concern for the welfare and/or happiness of other human beings or animals, resulting in a quality of life both material and spiritual. It is a traditional virtue in many cultures and a core asp ...
. The basic idea is that you have a certain probability at each game to play against an altruistic agent and if this probability is high enough, you should defect on the last round rather than the first. If enough people are altruists, sacrificing the payoff of first-round defection is worth the price in order to determine whether or not your opponent is an altruist.
McKelvey and Palfrey (1992) create a model with some altruistic agents and some rational agents who will end up playing a mixed strategy (i.e. they play at multiple nodes with some probability). To match well the experimental data, around 5% of the players need to be altruistic in the model. Elmshauser (2022) shows that a model including altruistic agents and uncertainty-averse agents (instead of rational agents) explain even better the experimental data. Some experiments tried to see whether players who passing a lot would also be the most altruistic agents in other games or other life situations (see for instance Pulford et al or Gamba and Regner (2019) who assessed
Social Value Orientation). Players passing a lot were indeed more altruistic but the difference wasn't huge.
Bounded Rationality explanation
Rosenthal (1981) suggested that if one has reason to believe his opponent will deviate from Nash behavior, then it may be advantageous to not defect on the first round. Another possibility involves error. If there is a significant possibility of error in action, perhaps because your opponent has not reasoned completely through the backward induction, it may be advantageous (and rational) to cooperate in the initial rounds. The
Quantal response equilibrium
Quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is a solution concept in game theory. First introduced by Richard McKelvey and Thomas Palfrey,
it provides an equilibrium notion with bounded rationality. QRE is not an equilibrium refinement, and it can give ...
of McKelvey and Palfrey (1995) created a model with agents playing
Nash equilibrium
In game theory, the Nash equilibrium, named after the mathematician John Nash, is the most common way to define the solution of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players. In a Nash equilibrium, each player is assumed to know the equili ...
with errors and they applied it to the Centipede game.
Another modelling able to explain behaviors in the centipede game is the level-k model, which is a
cognitive hierarchy theory : a L0 player plays randomly, the L1 player best responds to the L0 player, the L2 player best responds to the L1 player and so on. In many games, scholars observed that most of the player were L2 or L3 players, which is consistent with the centipede game experimental data. Garcia-Pola et al. (2020) concluded from an experiment that most of the players either play following a Level-k logic or a Quantal response logic.
However, Parco, Rapoport and Stein (2002) illustrated that the level of financial incentives can have a profound effect on the outcome in a three-player game: the larger the incentives are for deviation, the greater propensity for learning behavior in a repeated single-play experimental design to move toward the Nash equilibrium.
Palacios-Huerta and Volij (2009) find that expert
chess
Chess is a board game for two players, called White and Black, each controlling an army of chess pieces in their color, with the objective to checkmate the opponent's king. It is sometimes called international chess or Western chess to disti ...
players play differently from college students. With a rising
Elo, the probability of continuing the game declines; all
Grandmasters in the experiment stopped at their first chance. They conclude that chess players are familiar with using backward induction reasoning and hence need less learning to reach the equilibrium. However, in an attempt to replicate these findings, Levitt, List, and Sadoff (2010) find strongly contradictory results, with zero of sixteen Grandmasters stopping the game at the first node.
Qualitative research by Krockow et al.
, which employed think-aloud protocols that required players in a Centipede game to vocalise their reasoning during the game, indicated a range of decision biases such as
action bias
Action bias is the psychological phenomenon where people tend to favor action over inaction, even when there is no indication that doing so would point towards a better result. It is an automatic response, similar to a reflex or an impulse and i ...
or completion bias, which may drive irrational choices in the game.
Significance
Like the
Prisoner's Dilemma
The Prisoner's Dilemma is an example of a game analyzed in game theory. It is also a thought experiment that challenges two completely rational agents to a dilemma: cooperate with their partner for mutual reward, or betray their partner ("defe ...
, this game presents a conflict between self-interest and mutual benefit. If it could be enforced, both players would prefer that they both cooperate throughout the entire game. However, a player's self-interest or players' distrust can interfere and create a situation where both do worse than if they had blindly cooperated. Although the Prisoner's Dilemma has received substantial attention for this fact, the Centipede Game has received relatively less.
Additionally, Binmore (2005) has argued that some real-world situations can be described by the Centipede game. One example he presents is the exchange of goods between parties that distrust each other. Another example Binmore (2005) likens to the Centipede game is the mating behavior of a hermaphroditic sea bass which takes turns exchanging eggs to fertilize. In these cases, we find cooperation to be abundant.
Since the payoffs for some amount of cooperation in the Centipede game are so much larger than immediate defection, the "rational" solutions given by
backward induction
Backward induction is the process of reasoning backwards in time, from the end of a problem or situation, to determine a sequence of optimal actions. It proceeds by examining the last point at which a decision is to be made and then identifying wha ...
can seem paradoxical. This, coupled with the fact that experimental subjects regularly cooperate in the Centipede game, has prompted debate over the usefulness of the idealizations involved in the backward induction solutions, see Aumann (1995, 1996) and Binmore (1996).
See also
*
Backward induction
Backward induction is the process of reasoning backwards in time, from the end of a problem or situation, to determine a sequence of optimal actions. It proceeds by examining the last point at which a decision is to be made and then identifying wha ...
*
Experimental economics
Experimental economics is the application of experimental methods to study economic questions. Data collected in experiments are used to estimate effect size, test the validity of economic theories, and illuminate market mechanisms. Economic expe ...
*
Traveler's dilemma In game theory, the traveler's dilemma (sometimes abbreviated TD) is a non-zero-sum game in which each player proposes a payoff. The lower of the two proposals wins; the lowball player receives the lowball payoff plus a small bonus, and the highbal ...
*
Unexpected hanging paradox
The unexpected hanging paradox or surprise test paradox is a paradox about a person's expectations about the timing of a future event which they are told will occur at an unexpected time. The paradox is variously applied to a prisoner's hanging or ...
References
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External links
EconPort article on the Centipede Game- AMS column about the centipede game
Online experiment in VeconLabon gametheorygame.nl
{{Game theory
Non-cooperative games