Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a
technique used in
strategic planning,
futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will l ...
and
foresight to more effectively shape the future.
The technique was pioneered by
Sohail Inayatullah
Sohail Inayatullah is a Pakistani-born Australian academic, futures studies researcher and a professor at the Graduate Institute of Futures Studies at Tamkang University in Taipei, Taiwan.
Biography
Born in 1958 in Lahore, Pakistan, to a fath ...
, a
Pakistani-Australian
Pakistani Australians are Australians who are of Pakistani descent or heritage. Most Pakistani Australians are Muslims by religion, although there are also sizeable Christian, Hindu and other minorities.
History in Australia
An anthropological ...
futures studies
Futures studies, futures research, futurism or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social and technological advancement, and other environmental trends, often for the purpose of exploring how people will l ...
researcher.
Theory
Causal layered analysis works by identifying many different levels, and attempting to make synchronized changes at all levels to create a coherent new future. Inayatullah's original paper
[ as well as his ]TEDx
TED Conferences, LLC (Technology, Entertainment, Design) is an American-Canadian non-profit media organization that posts international talks online for free distribution under the slogan "ideas worth spreading". TED was founded by Richard Sau ...
talk identify four levels:
# The litany: This includes quantitative trends, often exaggerated and used for political purposes. The result could be a feeling of apathy, helplessness, or projected action. Inayatullah calls this "the conventional level of futures research which can readily create a politics of fear."[
# Social causes, including economic, cultural, political, and historical factors.
# Structure and the discourse that legitimizes and supports the structure.
# Metaphor and myth
]
History of research
CLA was first introduced explicitly as a futures research technique by Sohail Inayatullah in a 1998 article for ''Futures
Futures may mean:
Finance
*Futures contract, a tradable financial derivatives contract
*Futures exchange, a financial market where futures contracts are traded
* ''Futures'' (magazine), an American finance magazine
Music
* ''Futures'' (album), a ...
'' that would come to be widely cited.[ Later, Inayatullah would edit the CLA Reader, that featured chapters from a number of futurists and practitioners describing their experience with CLA.
Inayatullah's work on CLA was examined in a book by Jose W. Ramos in 2003.
A 2008 article by Chris Riedy examined the similarities, differences, and possible combinations of CLA and ]Ken Wilber
Kenneth Earl Wilber II (born January 31, 1949) is an American philosopher and writer on transpersonal psychology and his own integral theory, a philosophy which suggests the synthesis of all human knowledge and experience.
Life and career
Wilbe ...
's integral theory.
A 2010 article by Gary P. Hampson explored the relationship between integral futures and CLA further, and also considered Richard Slaughter
Richard Slaughter is a scholar and writer in the field of futures studies, applied foresight and social innovation. He is the co-director of Foresight International, and has guest edited the journals ''Futures'' and '' foresight''. His work ha ...
's critique of CLA.
Sohail Inayatullah and Ivana Milojevic have published an update in 2015. With various authors, they investigate topics such as:
* The Global Financial Crisis
* Terrorism futures
* Global governance
* Ageing and the changing workforce
* Educational and university futures
* Climate change
* Water futures in the Muslim world
* The alternative futures of China
* Agricultural policy in Australia
* The new national narrative in Singapore
See also
* Futures techniques
Futures techniques used in the multi-disciplinary field of futurology by futurists in Americas and Australasia, and futurology by futurologists in EU, include a diverse range of forecasting methods, including anticipatory thinking, backcasting ...
* Backcasting
Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. ...
References
{{reflist
Futures techniques