Boston and Skegness (UK Parliament constituency)
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Boston and Skegness is a
county constituency In the United Kingdom (UK), each of the electoral areas or divisions called constituencies elects one member to the House of Commons. Within the United Kingdom there are five bodies with members elected by electoral districts called "constituenc ...
, represented in the
House of Commons The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
of the
UK Parliament The Parliament of the United Kingdom is the supreme legislative body of the United Kingdom, the Crown Dependencies and the British Overseas Territories. It meets at the Palace of Westminster, London. It alone possesses legislative supremac ...
. It is located in
Lincolnshire Lincolnshire (abbreviated Lincs.) is a county in the East Midlands of England, with a long coastline on the North Sea to the east. It borders Norfolk to the south-east, Cambridgeshire to the south, Rutland to the south-west, Leicestershire ...
, England. Like all British constituencies, Boston and Skegness elects one
Member of Parliament A member of parliament (MP) is the representative in parliament of the people who live in their electoral district. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, this term refers only to members of the lower house since upper house members of ...
(MP) by the
first-past-the-post In a first-past-the-post electoral system (FPTP or FPP), formally called single-member plurality voting (SMP) when used in single-member districts or informally choose-one voting in contrast to ranked voting, or score voting, voters cast their ...
system of election. The seat has been represented by the
Conservative Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy that seeks to promote and to preserve traditional institutions, practices, and values. The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilization i ...
MP
Matt Warman Matthew Robert Warman (born 1 September 1981) is a British Conservative Party politician and former journalist who served as Minister of State at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport from July to September 2022. He has been the ...
since the 2015 general election, and is usually considered a
safe seat A safe seat is an electoral district (constituency) in a legislative body (e.g. Congress, Parliament, City Council) which is regarded as fully secure, for either a certain political party, or the incumbent representative personally or a combinat ...
for the party. The constituency was created in 1997, from parts of the former constituencies of
Holland with Boston Holland with Boston was a county constituency represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom from 1918 to 1997. It elected one Member of Parliament (United Kingdom), Member of ...
and
East Lindsey East Lindsey is a local government district in Lincolnshire, England. The population of the district council was 136,401 at the 2011 census. The council is based in Manby. Other major settlements in the district include Alford, Wragby, Spilsby ...
. The constituency has always elected a Conservative MP. In the
1997 File:1997 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The movie set of ''Titanic'', the highest-grossing movie in history at the time; ''Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone'', is published; Comet Hale-Bopp passes by Earth and becomes one of t ...
and
2001 The September 11 attacks against the United States by Al-Qaeda, which Casualties of the September 11 attacks, killed 2,977 people and instigated the global war on terror, were a defining event of 2001. The United States led a Participants in ...
general elections, the seat was very
marginal Marginal may refer to: * ''Marginal'' (album), the third album of the Belgian rock band Dead Man Ray, released in 2001 * ''Marginal'' (manga) * '' El Marginal'', Argentine TV series * Marginal seat or marginal constituency or marginal, in polit ...
, with majorities of less than 1,000 votes for the Conservative candidate over the
Labour Labour or labor may refer to: * Childbirth, the delivery of a baby * Labour (human activity), or work ** Manual labour, physical work ** Wage labour, a socioeconomic relationship between a worker and an employer ** Organized labour and the labour ...
candidate. The next two general elections, in
2005 File:2005 Events Collage V2.png, From top left, clockwise: Hurricane Katrina in the Gulf of Mexico; the Funeral of Pope John Paul II is held in Vatican City; "Me at the zoo", the first video ever to be uploaded to YouTube; Eris was discovered in ...
and
2010 File:2010 Events Collage New.png, From top left, clockwise: The 2010 Chile earthquake was one of the strongest recorded in history; The Eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in Iceland disrupts air travel in Europe; A scene from the opening ceremony of ...
, saw large swings towards the Conservatives. In the 2015 general election, the
Eurosceptic Euroscepticism, also spelled as Euroskepticism or EU-scepticism, is a political position involving criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration. It ranges from those who oppose some EU institutions and policies, and seek reform ...
UK Independence Party The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
(UKIP) overtook Labour to take second place in the constituency; the party won 33.8% of the vote in the seat, which was UKIP's second-highest vote share in any constituency in that election (after Clacton). The seat had been one of UKIP's top target seats in that election, as they had also performed strongly in the constituency at the two previous general elections. The constituency is estimated to have had the highest vote share in favour of leaving the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU) in the 2016 EU membership referendum, at 75.6%. For this reason, the leader of UKIP,
Paul Nuttall Paul Andrew Nuttall (born 30 November 1976) is a British politician who served as Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2016 to 2017. He was elected to the European Parliament in 2009 as a UK Independence Party (UKIP) candidate, and ...
, stood as the party's candidate in the seat in the 2017 general election. UKIP's vote share fell nationally that election, and they dropped to third place (behind Labour) with 7.7% of the vote, the party's third largest percentage drop in vote share. In the 2019 general election, the Conservatives increased their majority further, winning 76.7% of the vote. This was their second-highest vote share in the election (after
Castle Point Castle Point is a Non-metropolitan district, local government district with Borough status in the United Kingdom, borough status in south Essex, east of central London. The borough comprises the towns and villages of Canvey Island, Hadleigh, Ess ...
). The seat was also the second-safest Conservative seat in that election (measured by swing needed for the second-place party to gain the seat), after the neighbouring seat of
South Holland and the Deepings South Holland and The Deepings is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament, since its 1997 creation, by John Hayes, a Conservative. At the 2017 general election, the constituency recorded a higher Conservative sh ...
.


Boundaries

In England, constituency boundaries are determined by the
Boundary Commission for England The boundary commissions in the United Kingdom are non-departmental public bodies responsible for determining the boundaries of constituencies for elections to the House of Commons. There are four boundary commissions: * Boundary Commission for E ...
, an independent body which periodically reviews the size of each constituency based on demographic data; these changes must be approved by the
UK Parliament The Parliament of the United Kingdom is the supreme legislative body of the United Kingdom, the Crown Dependencies and the British Overseas Territories. It meets at the Palace of Westminster, London. It alone possesses legislative supremac ...
. The constituency of Boston and Skegness was created as a
county constituency In the United Kingdom (UK), each of the electoral areas or divisions called constituencies elects one member to the House of Commons. Within the United Kingdom there are five bodies with members elected by electoral districts called "constituenc ...
, by a
statutory instrument In many countries, a statutory instrument is a form of delegated legislation. United Kingdom Statutory instruments are the principal form of delegated or secondary legislation in the United Kingdom. National government Statutory instrument ...
in 1994, as part of the
Fourth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies The Fourth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies was undertaken in the United Kingdom between 1991 and 1995 by the four Boundary Commissions. As well as changes to constituency boundaries, the Reviews recommended an increase of five seats ...
, and was first contested in the 1997 general election. When formed, it consisted of the
Borough of Boston The Borough of Boston is a local government district with borough status in Lincolnshire, England. Its council is based in the town of Boston. The borough covers a wider area that includes villages such as Wyberton, Butterwick, Kirton-in-Holl ...
and the
wards Ward may refer to: Division or unit * Hospital ward, a hospital division, floor, or room set aside for a particular class or group of patients, for example the psychiatric ward * Prison ward, a division of a penal institution such as a priso ...
of Burgh le Marsh, Friskney, Frithville, Ingoldmells, St Clement's, Scarbrough, Seacroft, Sibsey, Wainfleet, and Winthorpe in the District of East Lindsey. The constituency was largely created from parts of the former Holland with Boston constituency, with the remainder previously part of the former seat of
East Lindsey East Lindsey is a local government district in Lincolnshire, England. The population of the district council was 136,401 at the 2011 census. The council is based in Manby. Other major settlements in the district include Alford, Wragby, Spilsby ...
. The constituency boundaries changed at the 2010 general election as part of the
Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies The Fifth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies was undertaken between 2000 and 2007 by the four boundary commissions for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for the UK Parliament. The changes for England, Wales and Northern I ...
, bringing in the two wards of Stickney and Croft from the neighbouring constituency of Louth and Horncastle. The constituency then consisted of the Borough of Boston, and the District of East Lindsey wards of Burgh le Marsh, Croft, Frithville, Ingoldmells, St Clement's, Scarbrough, Seacroft, Sibsey, Stickney, Wainfleet and Friskney, and Winthorpe. The original proposal from the Boundary Commission had been to only transfer the Croft ward, but it was then decided to also include the ward of Stickney because of its ties with the town of
Boston Boston (), officially the City of Boston, is the state capital and most populous city of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, as well as the cultural and financial center of the New England region of the United States. It is the 24th- mo ...
. The
Sixth Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies The 2013 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies, also known as the sixth Review, or just boundary changes, was an ultimately unfruitful cycle of the process by which constituencies of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom are reviewe ...
was carried out between 2011 and 2018, but has not been implemented because the proposed boundary changes need to be approved by the
House of Commons The House of Commons is the name for the elected lower house of the bicameral parliaments of the United Kingdom and Canada. In both of these countries, the Commons holds much more legislative power than the nominally upper house of parliament. ...
and the
House of Lords The House of Lords, also known as the House of Peers, is the Bicameralism, upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. Membership is by Life peer, appointment, Hereditary peer, heredity or Lords Spiritual, official function. Like the ...
. The review recommended that the two wards – Heckington Rural, and Kirkby la Thorpe and South Kyme – be transferred to Boston and Skegness from the constituency of Sleaford and North Hykeham. This recommendation was made because Boston and Skegness was below the permitted electorate range, and Sleaford and North Hykeham was above it; "electorate range" refers to the range (normally within 5% of the median British electorate) of allowed electorate size in each constituency, since legally all unprotected constituencies must be within this limit. The proposed constituency boundaries mostly received support, though some local residents argued that the wards should remain in the same constituency as Sleaford. The new constituency has an electorate of 71,989 (calculated in 2018). Boston and Skegness is bordered by the constituencies of Louth and Horncastle to the north, Sleaford and North Hykeham to the west, and
South Holland and The Deepings South Holland and The Deepings is a constituency represented in the House of Commons of the UK Parliament, since its 1997 creation, by John Hayes, a Conservative. At the 2017 general election, the constituency recorded a higher Conservative sh ...
to the south; all three of these constituencies are in the county of
Lincolnshire Lincolnshire (abbreviated Lincs.) is a county in the East Midlands of England, with a long coastline on the North Sea to the east. It borders Norfolk to the south-east, Cambridgeshire to the south, Rutland to the south-west, Leicestershire ...
and are all considered safe Conservative seats, and have been represented by MPs from the party since the formation of the constituencies in 1997. Indeed, as of the 2019 general election, all seven
Parliamentary constituencies in Lincolnshire A parliamentary system, or parliamentarian democracy, is a system of democratic governance of a state (or subordinate entity) where the executive derives its democratic legitimacy from its ability to command the support ("confidence") of the ...
have a Conservative MP.


Constituency profile

Boston, Lincolnshire, is a historic town, famous for the tower of St Botolph's Church, known by locals as the "Stump".
Skegness Skegness ( ) is a seaside town and civil parish in the East Lindsey District of Lincolnshire, England. On the Lincolnshire coast of the North Sea, the town is east of Lincoln and north-east of Boston. With a population of 19,579 as of 2011, i ...
is a seaside town and holiday destination; the first
Butlins Butlin's is a chain of large seaside resorts in the United Kingdom. Butlin's was founded by Billy Butlin to provide affordable holidays for ordinary British families. Between 1936 and 1966, ten camps were built, including one in Ireland and o ...
resort opened in Skegness in 1936. The constituency has a lower level of qualifications (measured by
National Vocational Qualification National Vocational Qualifications (NVQs) are practical work-based awards in England, Wales and Northern Ireland that are achieved through assessment and training. The regulatory framework supporting NVQs was withdrawn in 2015 and replaced by the ...
s) than the East Midlands average and the average for Great Britain; in 2018, 19.7% of the adult population had a
Higher National Diploma Higher National Diploma (HND), part of the Higher Nationals suite of qualifications, is an academic higher education qualification in the United Kingdom and various other countries. They were first introduced in England and Wales in 1920 alongsi ...
or degree-level qualification, compared to the British average of 39.3%. The 2015 data also found that the median house price in the constituency was £125 000. In 2019, the average gross weekly pay for people working full-time was £462, lower the average for Great Britain, which was £587. The most common jobs are process plant and machine operatives and sales and customer service occupations. Around 40% of workers work in one of these areas, more than twice the national average. The constituency also has a lower employment rate and a higher level of people on unemployment benefits than the averages for the region and the country. According to the
2011 UK Census A census of the population of the United Kingdom is taken every ten years. The 2011 census was held in all countries of the UK on 27 March 2011. It was the first UK census which could be completed online via the Internet. The Office for National ...
, Boston was "home to a higher proportion of Eastern European immigrants than anywhere else in England and Wales". People born in other EU countries, most of whom came from Eastern Europe after the
2004 enlargement of the European Union The largest expansion of the European Union (EU), in terms of territory, number of states, and population took place on 1 May 2004. The simultaneous accessions concerned the following countries (sometimes referred to as the "A10" countries): ...
, made up 13% of the town's population. The BBC described the town as "one of the most extreme examples in Britain of a town affected by recent EU immigration". In 2015, 11.3% of people living in the constituency were born outside the UK. The average age in the constituency was 32 at the time.


History

Like all
UK Parliament constituencies The Parliament of the United Kingdom currently has 650 parliamentary constituencies across the constituent countries (England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland), each electing a single Member of Parliament (United Kingdom), member of parlia ...
, Boston and Skegness elects one
Member of Parliament A member of parliament (MP) is the representative in parliament of the people who live in their electoral district. In many countries with bicameral parliaments, this term refers only to members of the lower house since upper house members of ...
(MP) using the
first-past-the-post In a first-past-the-post electoral system (FPTP or FPP), formally called single-member plurality voting (SMP) when used in single-member districts or informally choose-one voting in contrast to ranked voting, or score voting, voters cast their ...
voting system An electoral system or voting system is a set of rules that determine how elections and referendums are conducted and how their results are determined. Electoral systems are used in politics to elect governments, while non-political elections ma ...
.


1997–2001: Marginal seat between Conservatives and Labour

The constituency was created in 1997 from parts of the former constituencies of
Holland with Boston Holland with Boston was a county constituency represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom from 1918 to 1997. It elected one Member of Parliament (United Kingdom), Member of ...
and
East Lindsey East Lindsey is a local government district in Lincolnshire, England. The population of the district council was 136,401 at the 2011 census. The council is based in Manby. Other major settlements in the district include Alford, Wragby, Spilsby ...
. The in part predecessor area's veteran MP
Richard Body Sir Richard Bernard Frank Stewart Body (18 May 1927 – 26 February 2018) was an English politician. He was Conservative Member of Parliament for Billericay from 1955 to 1959, for Holland with Boston from 1966 to 1997, and for Boston and Ske ...
, who had been MP for Holland with Boston between 1966 and 1997, held the seat at the 1997 general election with a 1.4% majority (647 votes). The seat had been formed from two constituencies held by the Conservatives with large majorities, and a Conservative victory was seen as very likely. However, the election result nationally was a landslide victory for the Labour Party, and Body only narrowly remained in Parliament; the seat was the tenth most marginal Conservative-held seat at the election by percentage majority and the ninth most marginal by absolute majority (number of votes). The academics Robert Waller and Byron Criddle attributed his victory to the Referendum Party's decision not to stand, which they did because of Body's
Eurosceptic Euroscepticism, also spelled as Euroskepticism or EU-scepticism, is a political position involving criticism of the European Union (EU) and European integration. It ranges from those who oppose some EU institutions and policies, and seek reform ...
views. After retiring from Parliament, Body left the Conservatives and joined the
UK Independence Party The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest par ...
(UKIP), a party that supported British withdrawal from the European Union (EU), though he encouraged people to vote Conservative at the 2005 general election. His membership later lapsed and he defected to the
English Democrats The English Democrats is a right-wing to far-right, English nationalist political party active in England. A minor party, it currently has no elected representatives at any level of UK government. The English Democrats were established in 2 ...
, a small
far-right Far-right politics, also referred to as the extreme right or right-wing extremism, are political beliefs and actions further to the right of the left–right political spectrum than the standard political right, particularly in terms of being ...
party. Body's successor, the Conservative
Mark Simmonds Mark Jonathon Mortlock Simmonds (born 12 April 1964) is a Conservative Party politician in the United Kingdom. He was the Member of Parliament (MP) for Boston and Skegness in Lincolnshire, and was first elected in 2001, succeeding Sir Richar ...
, won an even smaller majority of 1.3% over Labour in the 2001 general election (515 votes). The seat was described by Waller and Criddle as "an exceptionally tight two-way marginal". The seat was the fourth most marginal Conservative seat at that election (by both percentage and absolute majority) and the most marginal Conservative seat with Labour in second place.


2001–2010: Labour support falls, UKIP perform strongly

In the 2005 general election, Simmonds increased his majority over Labour to 14.1%. The seat had the 139th largest absolute majority and the 131st largest percentage majority out of the 198 Conservative seats. Richard Horsnell, the candidate for the anti-European Union party
UKIP The UK Independence Party (UKIP; ) is a Eurosceptic, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. The party reached its greatest level of success in the mid-2010s, when it gained two members of Parliament and was the largest pa ...
(United Kingdom Independence Party) came third with 9.6%. This was UKIP's highest vote share in any seat in the 2005 general election, with the exception of
South Staffordshire South Staffordshire is a local government district in Staffordshire, England. The district lies to the north and west of the West Midlands county, bordering Shropshire to the west and Worcestershire to the south. It contains notable settlements ...
, where UKIP won 10.4% after the election was delayed due to the death of a candidate. UKIP also performed strongly in several local council elections in Boston on the same day, winning more than 20% of the vote in some wards. Overall, UKIP won 2.2% of the national vote and won an average of 2.8% in the seats they stood candidates in. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats fell from third to fourth place with just 8.7% of the vote; this was the party's seventh-lowest vote share in any seat, and third-lowest vote share in a constituency in England, in the election. Waller and Criddle said that the constituency "now looks like a fairly safe Tory onservativeseat", though Labour had hoped to win the seat in the election. After his re-election, Simmonds was appointed Shadow Minister for International Development in May 2005, before being moved to be a Shadow Health Minister in July 2007. In the 2010 general election, Simmonds increased his majority over Labour further, winning almost half the vote compared to Labour's 20.6%. The Liberal Democrats came third, while UKIP achieved fourth place; their candidate Christopher Pain won 9.5% of the vote. This share of the vote was similar to the result in the previous election, and was UKIP's second-highest in 2010, after the special case of
Buckingham Buckingham ( ) is a market town in north Buckinghamshire, England, close to the borders of Northamptonshire and Oxfordshire, which had a population of 12,890 at the 2011 Census. The town lies approximately west of Central Milton Keynes, sou ...
. The far-right
British National Party The British National Party (BNP) is a far-right, fascist political party in the United Kingdom. It is headquartered in Wigton, Cumbria, and its leader is Adam Walker. A minor party, it has no elected representatives at any level of UK gover ...
(BNP) also performed strongly in the constituency, winning 5.3% of the vote; since this was more than 5%, the party saved their deposit.


2010–2015: Conservatives challenged by UKIP

Following the 2010 general election, Simmonds became
Parliamentary Private Secretary A Parliamentary Private Secretary (PPS) is a Member of Parliament (MP) in the United Kingdom who acts as an unpaid assistant to a minister or shadow minister. They are selected from backbench MPs as the 'eyes and ears' of the minister in the H ...
to
Caroline Spelman Dame Caroline Alice Spelman (' Cormack; born 4 May 1958) is a British Conservative Party politician who served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Meriden in the West Midlands from 1997 to 2019. From May 2010 to September 2012 she was the Sec ...
, the Secretary of State for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs. Following the 2012 cabinet reshuffle, he became the
Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs is a vacant junior position in the British government, subordinate to both the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs and since 1945 also to the Minister of State for Foreign Affair ...
a junior role in the
Foreign and Commonwealth Office The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) is a Departments of the Government of the United Kingdom, department of the Government of the United Kingdom. Equivalent to other countries' Ministry of Foreign Affairs, ministries of fore ...
. The polling company Survation analysed the results of the 2013 local elections and estimated that if UKIP were to perform equally well in a general election, then they would gain the constituency with an 11% majority. Of the ten constituencies that Survation predicted UKIP would win, Boston and Skegness had the largest predicted UKIP majority. UKIP performed strongly in and near the town of Boston, which was historically a safe Conservative area; this was seen as a surprise and was attributed to voters being concerned about immigration and feeling ignored by politicians. Afterwards, there was some media speculation that
Nigel Farage Nigel Paul Farage (; born 3 April 1964) is a British broadcaster and former politician who was List of UK Independence Party leaders, Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2006 to 2009 and 2010 to 2016 and Brexit Party#Leaders, Lea ...
, the leader of UKIP, might stand in the constituency at the next general election; Simmonds said he "would be delighted" if Farage did, as it would give issues in the constituency more attention. In the
2014 European Parliament election The 2014 European Parliament election was held in the European Union, from 22 to 25 May 2014. It was the 8th parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979, and the first in which the European political parties fielded candid ...
, which UKIP won ahead of Labour and the Conservatives, the Borough of Boston had the highest UKIP vote share in the country. The party gained 52% of votes in the borough, followed by the Conservatives and then Labour. This led to the constituency being seen as a top target for UKIP in the next general election. On 11 August 2014, Simmonds resigned as a minister and announced that he would step down as the Member of Parliament for Boston and Skegness at the 2015 general election. Explaining his decision, he said that his salary and expenses of over £100,000 were not enough to maintain a home in London, which he said caused "intolerable" pressure in his family life. This attracted some criticism, as Simmonds' salary was several times larger than the average salary in his constituency. There was also media speculation that he stood down due to the threat of UKIP gaining the seat. After Simmonds announced that he would not stand at the 2015 general election, the local Conservatives decided to select their candidate using the open primary system. Interviews were used to narrow down the number of applicants to four, with the winner then being chosen at a public meeting that all voters in the constituency could attend and vote in. Several rounds of voting were used; the first two rounds, with 81 votes cast in each, both eliminated one candidate; the first candidate eliminated was
Paul Bristow Paul Bristow (born 27 March 1979) is a British politician who has served as the Member of Parliament (MP) for Peterborough since the 2019 general election. A member of the Conservative Party, he worked as a public relations consultant and was t ...
, who was later won the seat of
Peterborough Peterborough () is a cathedral city in Cambridgeshire, east of England. It is the largest part of the City of Peterborough unitary authority district (which covers a larger area than Peterborough itself). It was part of Northamptonshire until ...
in 2019. The third round saw 80 votes cast with a tie between the journalist
Matt Warman Matthew Robert Warman (born 1 September 1981) is a British Conservative Party politician and former journalist who served as Minister of State at the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport from July to September 2022. He has been the ...
and the headteacher Tim Clark. Another vote between the two was held, which was won by Warman, then the head of technology at ''
The Daily Telegraph ''The Daily Telegraph'', known online and elsewhere as ''The Telegraph'', is a national British daily broadsheet newspaper published in London by Telegraph Media Group and distributed across the United Kingdom and internationally. It was fo ...
''. Warman, who was 33 at the time of the primary, argued that UKIP's support in the area was partly due to "a real disconnect between voters and politicians"; his wife's family lived in the constituency. The seat had been one of UKIP's top target seats in that election. The journalist and commentator
Iain Dale Iain Campbell Dale (born 15 July 1962) is a British broadcaster, author and political commentator, and a former publisher and book retailer. He has been a blogger since 2002. In 2005, he became the first openly gay Conservative candidate to c ...
predicted in February 2015 that UKIP would gain the seat, writing " fUKIP are to make a breakthrough, it might well be here"; overall, Dale predicted that UKIP would make five gains at the election. Two opinion polls of the constituency were carried out prior to the 2015 general election. A poll in September 2014 predicted a UKIP majority of 19%, while a 2015 poll forecast a narrow Conservative majority of 3%. However, an internal poll conducted by UKIP (not released to the public) close to the election found a Conservative lead of seven points. On the day of the election, 8 May 2015, Warman was duly elected as the Member of Parliament; the Conservative majority shrunk to 10% with the UKIP candidate Robin Hunter-Clarke, a councillor on the
Lincolnshire County Council Lincolnshire (abbreviated Lincs.) is a Counties of England, county in the East Midlands of England, with a long coastline on the North Sea to the east. It borders Norfolk to the south-east, Cambridgeshire to the south, Rutland to the south-we ...
, coming in second place. Warman won 43.8% of the vote in the seat, while Hunter-Clarke achieved 33.8%, which was UKIP's second-highest vote share in any constituency in that election (after Clacton, the only constituency the party won). UKIP increased their vote share by 24.3% compared to the previous general election, while the Conservative share of the vote fell by 5.7%; this was the seventh-largest increase in vote share achieved by UKIP at the election. Out of the 650 constituencies in the United Kingdom, the seat was the 126th most marginal in terms of percentage majority and 115th most marginal when measured by number of votes.


2015–present: Brexit vote, becoming a safe Conservative seat

Warman's
maiden speech A maiden speech is the first speech given by a newly elected or appointed member of a legislature or parliament. Traditions surrounding maiden speeches vary from country to country. In many Westminster system governments, there is a convention th ...
discussed the positive and negative effects of immigration on Boston and Skegness, saying that the pressures on public services "allowed divisive, single-issue political campaigns to flourish". Warman supported remaining in the European Union in the 2016 EU membership referendum. Nevertheless, the constituency is estimated to have had the highest vote share in favour of leaving the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
(EU) in the EU referendum, at 75.6%. On 29 April 2017,
Paul Nuttall Paul Andrew Nuttall (born 30 November 1976) is a British politician who served as Leader of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) from 2016 to 2017. He was elected to the European Parliament in 2009 as a UK Independence Party (UKIP) candidate, and ...
, the leader of UKIP at the time, announced that he was standing in Boston and Skegness, noting that the constituency had the highest Leave vote in the country. Shortly before the election, the BBC described Boston as "Britain's unofficial Brexit capital". Liberal Democrats and Labour also planned to contest the seat, with the
Green Party A green party is a formally organized political party based on the principles of green politics, such as social justice, environmentalism and nonviolence. Greens believe that these issues are inherently related to one another as a foundation ...
intending to if they could find the funds for a deposit. (The Green Party did stand a candidate, as did a minor party called A Blue Revolution that only had one parliamentary candidate in the election.) Nutall came in third place (with Labour second), winning just 7.7% of the vote; this was a decrease of 26.1% compared to 2015, and the third-largest percentage fall in UKIP vote share in that election. UKIP's share of the vote fell nationally in that election, and the result was still their seventh-highest vote share of any seat. The election saw UKIP achieve their worst result in the constituency since the 2001 general election. The Conservative majority increased to an all-time high in the seat, while Labour had their best result since 2005, achieving 25% of the votes cast. The Green Party and Liberal Democrats lost their deposits, mirroring the 2015 election results for both parties. Of the 46 constituencies in the
East Midlands The East Midlands is one of nine official regions of England at the first level of ITL for statistical purposes. It comprises the eastern half of the area traditionally known as the Midlands. It consists of Leicestershire, Derbyshire, Li ...
region, Boston and Skegness had the third lowest turnout at the election, at 62.7%. Based on estimates produced by Professor Chris Hanretty of
Royal Holloway, University of London Royal Holloway, University of London (RHUL), formally incorporated as Royal Holloway and Bedford New College, is a public research university and a constituent college of the federal University of London. It has six schools, 21 academic departm ...
, Boston and Skegness had the third-highest vote share for the
Brexit Party Reform UK is a Right-wing populism, right-wing populist political party in the United Kingdom. It was founded with support from Nigel Farage in November 2018 as the Brexit Party, advocating hard Euroscepticism and a no-deal Brexit, and was bri ...
in the
2019 European Parliament election The 2019 European Parliament election was held between 23 and 26 May 2019, the ninth parliamentary election since the first direct elections in 1979. A total of 751 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) represent more than 512 million peopl ...
. According to Hanretty, 56.4% of votes cast in the constituency were for the new anti-EU party, which was led by Farage, behind only
Castle Point Castle Point is a Non-metropolitan district, local government district with Borough status in the United Kingdom, borough status in south Essex, east of central London. The borough comprises the towns and villages of Canvey Island, Hadleigh, Ess ...
and Clacton. Hanretty also estimated that the Conservatives came second in the seat, with 12.5% of the vote, followed by UKIP, who won 7.7%, their tenth strongest performance of the election. UKIP were closely followed by the Liberal Democrats and Labour, who came fourth and fifth with 7.5% and 7.4% of the vote respectively. Due to the high level of support for leaving the European Union in the constituency, the seat was discussed in 2019 as a potential target for the Brexit Party in the next general election; The Brexit Party achieved high levels of support in general election polls in June and July, and one estimate, by the website
Electoral Calculus Electoral Calculus is a political forecasting web site which attempts to predict future United Kingdom general election results. It considers national factors but excludes local issues. Main features The site was developed by Martin Baxter, w ...
, suggested that the Brexit Party would gain Boston and Skegness. However, the Brexit Party support decreased over time, and in the run-up to the 2019 general election, which took place in December, some analysts thought that the large Conservative majority made victory there unlikely. Farage later announced that the Brexit Party would not stand in any constituency won by the Conservatives in 2017; the Brexit Party candidate was going to be Jonathan Bullock, a
Member of the European Parliament A Member of the European Parliament (MEP) is a person who has been elected to serve as a popular representative in the European Parliament. When the European Parliament (then known as the Common Assembly of the ECSC) first met in 1952, its ...
(MEP) for the East Midlands constituency. UKIP did not stand in the constituency; they only stood in 44 out of the 650 British seats at the election. In the election, held on 12 December, the Conservatives increased their majority further, winning 76.7% of the vote. This was the Conservatives' second-highest vote share in the election (after Castle Point). The seat was also the fifteenth-safest seat in the election (measured by percentage majority), and the second-safest Conservative seat after neighbouring South Holland and the Deepings.


Members of Parliament

''
Holland with Boston Holland with Boston was a county constituency represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons of the Parliament of the United Kingdom from 1918 to 1997. It elected one Member of Parliament (United Kingdom), Member of ...
and
East Lindsey East Lindsey is a local government district in Lincolnshire, England. The population of the district council was 136,401 at the 2011 census. The council is based in Manby. Other major settlements in the district include Alford, Wragby, Spilsby ...
prior to 1997''


Elections


Elections in the 2010s


Elections in the 2000s


Elections in the 1990s


Notes


References

;General ;Specific * * * * * * * * * * * * * * {{DEFAULTSORT:Boston And Skegness (Uk Parliament Constituency) Parliamentary constituencies in Lincolnshire Constituencies of the Parliament of the United Kingdom established in 1997