Bracketology is the process of predicting the field of
college basketball
In United States colleges, top-tier basketball is governed by collegiate athletic bodies including National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), the National Association of Intercollegiate Athletics (NAIA), the United States Collegiate Athleti ...
participants in the
NCAA basketball tournament, named as such because it is commonly used to fill in
tournament brackets for the postseason. It incorporates some method of predicting the metrics the
NCAA Selection Committee will use (such as
rating percentage index
The rating percentage index, commonly known as the RPI, is a quantity used to rank sports teams based upon a team's wins and losses and its strength of schedule. It is one of the sports rating systems by which NCAA basketball, baseball, softball ...
through the 2018 tournament, and the NCAA Evaluation Tool
ETsince 2019) in order to determine at-large (non-conference winning) teams to complete the field of 68 teams, and, to
seed
A seed is an embryonic plant enclosed in a protective outer covering, along with a food reserve. The formation of the seed is a part of the process of reproduction in seed plants, the spermatophytes, including the gymnosperm and angiospe ...
the field by ranking all teams from first through sixty-eighth. Bracketology also encompasses the process of predicting the winners of each of the brackets. In recent years the concept of bracketology has been applied to areas other than basketball.
Background
Joe Lunardi is credited with inventing the term ''bracketology''. Lunardi had been editor and owner of the ''Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook'', a preseason guide roughly 400 pages long.
In 1995, ''Blue Ribbon'' added an 80-page postseason supplement which was released the night the brackets were announced. So that the release could be timely, Lunardi began predicting the selection committee's bracket.
[ On February 25, 1996, '']The Philadelphia Inquirer
''The Philadelphia Inquirer'' is a daily newspaper headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The newspaper's circulation is the largest in both the U.S. state of Pennsylvania and the Delaware Valley metropolitan region of Southeastern Pennsy ...
'' referred to Lunardi as a ''bracketologist'', which is the first known instance the term was applied to a college basketball expert.[ While Lunardi did not recall using the term before its use in the article, ''Inquirer'' writer Mike Jensen credits its origins to Lunardi.] Lunardi soon started the website Bracketology.net,[ and ]ESPN
ESPN (originally an initialism for Entertainment and Sports Programming Network) is an American international basic cable sports channel owned by ESPN Inc., owned jointly by The Walt Disney Company (80%) and Hearst Communications (20%). Th ...
began running his predictions in exchange for a link to his website.[
By 2002, Lunardi had his own Bracketology page with ESPN.][ He also teaches an online course at Saint Joseph's University titled "Fundamentals of Bracketology".
]
Predicting participants
Using the NCAA basketball tournament selection process
The selection process for college basketball's NCAA Division I Men's and Women's Basketball Tournaments determine which teams (68 men's and 68 women's) will enter the tournaments (the centerpieces of the basketball championship frenzy known as ...
, the NET, and the seeding and balancing process, a "bracketologist" places teams in the tournament in the various regions (most commonly East, West, Midwest, and South however sometimes the region names are changed to reflect the host cities). Some bracketologists go as far as placing teams in which "pods" they will play in the first and second rounds. Generally, the lists also show the last four teams in and the first four teams out. However, these brackets change daily as conference tournaments continue and teams automatically qualify for the tournament.
A bracketologist's credibility is judged on how many teams he predicts correctly being in the tournament and the average difference between the bracketologist's projected seed and the actual seed assigned by the NCAA Selection Committee. The difference between projected matchups and the differences between the "pods" selected in the first and second rounds are less important.
Predicting winners
Various methods are used to predict the winners in a bracket. While some use math and statistics, others make selections based on team mascots or colors. President Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the ...
became famous for his bracket predictions. After entering office, he presented his projected winners annually on ESPN in a segment called Barack-etology. However, in 2015 he was bested by his former political rival and 2012 presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, who ranked in the top 0.1 percent of entrants in ESPN
ESPN (originally an initialism for Entertainment and Sports Programming Network) is an American international basic cable sports channel owned by ESPN Inc., owned jointly by The Walt Disney Company (80%) and Hearst Communications (20%). Th ...
's 2015 Tournament Challenge, correctly predicting six "Elite Eight" teams, each "Final Four" team, and the championship game matchup, while also correctly predicting Duke
Duke is a male title either of a monarch ruling over a duchy, or of a member of royalty, or nobility. As rulers, dukes are ranked below emperors, kings, grand princes, grand dukes, and sovereign princes. As royalty or nobility, they are rank ...
would win the title.
Non-basketball applications
Bracketology as a discipline has spread beyond a focus on basketball, into other sports, as well as pop culture, history, nature, and other topics where a loose application of binary opposition may be profitable for study or enjoyment, albeit without the label of "bracketology" itself.
This spread has been helped along by literary agent and writer Mark Reiter and sports journalist Richard Sandomir
Richard Elliot Sandomir (born September 4, 1957) is an American journalist who is an obituary writer for ''The New York Times''. He wrote about sports, male-pattern hair loss and television; he is the author of several books including ''Bald Like ...
, who have edited two books on bracketology as applied to the world around them, most recently '' The Final Four of Everything'',The Final Four of Everything , Book by Mark Reiter, Richard Sandomir - Simon & Schuster
/ref> which was published by Simon & Schuster
Simon & Schuster () is an American publishing company and a subsidiary of Paramount Global. It was founded in New York City on January 2, 1924 by Richard L. Simon and M. Lincoln Schuster. As of 2016, Simon & Schuster was the third largest pu ...
in May 2009.
References
External links
Bracketology article in New York Times
ESPN: Joe Lunardi's Men's Bracketology
ESPN: Charlie Creme's Women's Bracketology
DRatings: Donchess NCAA/NIT Bracketology
The Bracket Matrix
Publisher website for The Final Four of Everything by Mark Reiter and Richard Sandomir
{{NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament navbox
NCAA Division I men's basketball tournament