A betting strategy (also known as betting system) is a structured approach to
gambling
Gambling (also known as betting or gaming) is the wagering of something of value ("the stakes") on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three el ...
, in the attempt to produce a profit. To be successful, the system must change the
house edge
Games available in most casinos are commonly called casino games. In a casino game, the players gamble cash or casino chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes. Casino games are also available in online casinos, whe ...
into a player advantage — which is impossible for pure games of probability with fixed odds, akin to a
perpetual motion
Perpetual motion is the motion of bodies that continues forever in an unperturbed system. A perpetual motion machine is a hypothetical machine that can do work infinitely without an external energy source. This kind of machine is impossible, a ...
machine.
Betting systems are often predicated on
statistical analysis
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability.Upton, G., Cook, I. (2008) ''Oxford Dictionary of Statistics'', OUP. . Inferential statistical analysis infers propertie ...
.
Mathematically, no betting system can alter long-term expected results in a game with random,
independent trials, although they can make for higher odds of short-term winning at the cost of increased risk, and are an enjoyable gambling experience for some people. Strategies which take into account the changing odds that exist in some games (e.g.
card counting
Card counting is a blackjack strategy used to determine whether the player or the dealer has an advantage on the next hand. Card counters are advantage players who try to overcome the casino house edge by keeping a running count of high and low ...
and
handicapping
Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which th ...
), can alter long-term results.
This is formally stated by game theorist
Richard Arnold Epstein
Richard Arnold Epstein (born March 5, 1927 in Los Angeles, California), also known under the pseudonym E. P. Stein, is an American game theorist.
Education
He obtained his A.B. degree from UCLA in 1948. He then studied at the University of Cali ...
in ''The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic'' as:
Examples
Common betting systems include:
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Card game
A card game is any game using playing cards as the primary device with which the game is played, be they traditional or game-specific.
Countless card games exist, including families of related games (such as poker). A small number of card ...
s –
Card counting
Card counting is a blackjack strategy used to determine whether the player or the dealer has an advantage on the next hand. Card counters are advantage players who try to overcome the casino house edge by keeping a running count of high and low ...
*
Roulette
Roulette is a casino game named after the French word meaning ''little wheel'' which was likely developed from the Italian game Biribi''.'' In the game, a player may choose to place a bet on a single number, various groupings of numbers, the ...
–
Martingale
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Sport
Sport pertains to any form of Competition, competitive physical activity or game that aims to use, maintain, or improve physical ability and Skill, skills while providing enjoyment to participants and, in some cases, entertainment to specta ...
s –
Handicapping
Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which th ...
*
Martingale
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Kelly criterion
In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet), is a formula that determines the optimal theoretical size for a bet. It is valid when the expected returns are known. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expec ...
*
Split martingale
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Anti-martingale
A martingale is a class of betting strategies that originated from and were popular in 18th-century France. The simplest of these strategies was designed for a game in which the gambler wins the stake if a coin comes up heads and loses if it co ...
*
d'Alembert system
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Oscar's grind
Oscar's Grind is a betting strategy used by gamblers on wagers where the outcome is evenly distributed between two results of equal value (like flipping a coin). It is an archetypal positive progression strategy. It is also called Hoyle's Press. ...
Horse racing
Some
Horse racing
Horse racing is an equestrian performance sport, typically involving two or more horses ridden by jockeys (or sometimes driven without riders) over a set distance for competition. It is one of the most ancient of all sports, as its basic p ...
betting systems can be based on pure statistical analysis of the odds, while others also analysis of physical factors (e.g. the horses' form, jockey form and lane draw). Common forms of betting systems for horse racing are:
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hedging- betting on multiple outcomes in a race
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arbitrage
In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the ...
- lay the horse a low price and back it at a high price
See also
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Gambler's fallacy
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House edge
Games available in most casinos are commonly called casino games. In a casino game, the players gamble cash or casino chips on various possible random outcomes or combinations of outcomes. Casino games are also available in online casinos, whe ...
*
Mathematics of bookmaking
In gambling parlance, making a book is the practice of laying bets on the various possible outcomes of a single event. The phrase originates from the practice of recording such wagers in a hard-bound ledger (the 'book') and gives the English langu ...
*
Parimutuel betting
Parimutuel betting or pool betting is a betting system in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool; taxes and the "house-take" or "vigorish" are deducted, and payoff odds are calculated by sharing the pool among all winnin ...
References
{{Gambling
Strategy