The Berlin procedure (BV) is a mathematical procedure for

time series In mathematics, a time series is a series of data points indexed (or listed or graphed) in time order. Most commonly, a time series is a sequence taken at successive equally spaced points in time. Thus it is a sequence of discrete-time data. Exa ...

decomposition and

seasonal adjustment Seasonal adjustment or deseasonalization is a statistical method for removing the seasonal component of a time series. It is usually done when wanting to analyse the trend, and cyclical deviations from trend, of a time series independently of the ...

of monthly and quarterly economic time series. The mathematical foundations of the procedure were developed in 1960's at the

Technical University of Berlin The Technical University of Berlin (official name both in English and german: link=no, Technische Universität Berlin, also known as TU Berlin and Berlin Institute of Technology) is a public research university located in Berlin, Germany. It was ...

and the

German Institute for Economic Research The German Institute for Economic Research (german: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung), or, more commonly DIWBerlin, is a economic research institute in Germany, involved in basic research and policy advice. It is a non-profit acad ...

(DIW). The most important user of the procedure is the

Federal Statistical Office of Germany The Federal Statistical Office (german: Statistisches Bundesamt, shortened ''Destatis'') is a federal authority of Germany. It reports to the Federal Ministry of the Interior. The Office is responsible for collecting, processing, presenting and ...

. For the latest version 4.1 of BV a BV4.1 software is available as

freeware Freeware is software, most often proprietary, that is distributed at no monetary cost to the end user. There is no agreed-upon set of rights, license, or EULA that defines ''freeware'' unambiguously; every publisher defines its own rules for the f ...

for non-commercial purposes.

Specific features of the procedure

The latest version 4.1 of the Berlin procedure is distinguished from other commonly used decomposition and seasonal adjustment methods (i.e.

X-12-ARIMA X-13ARIMA-SEATS, successor to X-12-ARIMA and X-11, is a set of statistical methods for seasonal adjustment and other descriptive analysis of time series data that are implemented in the U.S. Census Bureau's software package. These methods are or ...

) by the following characteristic features: * The procedure works well even with time series showing strongly changing seasonal patterns. * Trend-cycles are depicted plausibly in terms of economic points of view. * The cost-benefit ratio is low as the user does not need special training or even expert knowledge or long-term experience with the procedure to make high-quality analyses. * On principle the analysis results do not depend on the respective user since there is no need to determine any series-specific parameters of the procedure. * As linear regression models are used, on principle there are no differences between indirect and direct analysis results of aggregate series.

External links

Federal Statistical Office's page on time series analysis and BV4.1

Speth, H.-T. (2004): "The BV4.1 procedure for decomposing and seasonally adjusting economic time series"
*
Nourney, M. (1983): "Umstellung der Zeitreihenanalyse", from: Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 11
*
Nourney, M. (1984): "Seasonal adjustment by frequency determined filter procedures", from: Statistical Journal of the United Nations ECE 2
Time series