Bellwether Seat

A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.bellwether
" ''Cambridge Dictionary''. Retrieved 2022-01-22.

In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In economics, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend.

Sociologists apply the term in the active sense to a person or group of people who tend to create, influence, or set trends.

Etymology

The term derives from the Middle English ''bellewether'', which referred to the practice of placing a bell around the neck of a castrated ram (a ''wether'') leading a flock of sheep. A shepherd could then note the movements of the animals by hearing the bell, even when the flock was not in sight.

The word was first used in the above meaning in the 15th century.

In economics

In the world of economics and finance, a 'bellwether' is a leading indicator of an economic trend.

In the stock market, a 'bellwether' is a company or stock taken to be a leading indicator of the direction in a sector, in an industry or in the market as a whole. Bellwether stocks therefore serve as short-term guides. JPMorgan Chase is a U.S. example of a bellwether. As one of the major banks in the United States, its stock sets the tone for the rest of the banking industry. JPMorgan Chase also has contracts with companies in other industries, so its performance is reflected in other sectors of the market. Tata Consultancy Services is similarly a bellwether for technology stocks in the Indian markets, BSE and NSE.

Similarly, a bellwether bond is "a government bond whose changes in interest rate are believed to show the future direction of the rest of the bond market."

The quarterly ''Bellwether Report'', published by the Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA), monitors trends in expenditure in the UK advertising and marketing industry.

In law

In politics

In politics, the term ''bellwether'' often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. In a Westminster-style election, for example, a constituency, the control of which tends frequently to change, can have a popular vote that mirrors the result on a national scale.

An electoral bellwether can be a ward, precinct, town, county, or other district that accurately reflects how a geographic region (state, province, etc.) will vote during elections. Bellwethers in the United States typically change every election cycle due to shifts in the electorate. Bellwethers also differ by the type of elections: a midterm bellwether differs from a presidential bellwether or a party primary bellwether.

American statistician and political scientist Edward Tufte and his student Richard Sun defined electoral bellwethers (in the US) into the following categories:

* All-Or-Nothing Bellwether — states or counties that choose the national winner every time. Examples include the State of Missouri and the counties of Vigo County, IN; Lincoln County, MT; Van Buren County, AR; Logan County, AR; Eddy County, NM; and Ferry County, WA.
* Barometric Bellwether — a place that accurately reflects the national share of votes. Vigo County, Indiana, is one example.
* Swingometric Bellwether — a county that mirrors important swings or shifts in the national electorate. Examples include Sandoval County, NM, and Washoe County, NV.

Australia

In Australian federal elections, the Division of Robertson in New South Wales became the nation's new longest-running bellwether seat, continuously won by the party that also won government since the 1983 federal election.

Previously, the electoral division of Eden-Monaro elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government at every federal election from 1972 until 2016, when the record was broken after Labor won the seat, while the Coalition won government. The Division of Lindsay in NSW, has elected its Member of Parliament from the party which won government in every Federal election since its creation in 1984 until 2016. Both Lindsay and Eden-Monaro lost their bellwether status at the 2016 federal election, both electing Labor MPs, despite a narrow Coalition win nationwide.

The Division of Makin in South Australia was a bellwether division from 1984 to 2010, although ceased its bellwether record in 2013, when Makin stayed Labor as the Coalition regained power nationwide. Also, in terms of nationwide two party preferred vote, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Robertson and Makin have bucked the bellwether trend in the past by voting Liberal at the 1998 federal election. In purely statistical terms, the state of New South Wales, which has the largest population of any Australian state or territory, could also be considered a "bellwether", as, until the 2016 federal election the party which wins government has won the majority of House of Representatives seats in that state at every election since 1963. Unlike many bellwethers, these are cited by analysts solely for their record and are not usually attributed to demographic factors that reflect the median of Australia.

Canada

In the Canadian province of Ontario, Sarnia—Lambton (and its predecessor ridings) voted for the winning party in every federal election from 1963 until 2011. This streak was broken in 2015, when the Conservative Party held the district while the Liberal Party won government, and the riding has become reliably Conservative since. Toronto—St. Paul's has only elected three opposition MPs since it contested its first election, as St. Paul's, in 1935, although it has become reliably Liberal in recent years. Burlington and St. Catharines currently share the longest active streak, having elected a member from the winning party since 1984. Also in Ontario, Peterborough—Kawartha (called Peterborough until 2015) has consistently elected the party which has won the provincial election since 1977. In federal politics, Peterborough—Kawartha (also called Peterborough until 2015) elected a member of the winning party from 1965 to 1979 and 1984 until 2021, inclusive.

In Alberta, the provincial electoral district Peace River has elected only three opposition MLAs since the province was founded in 1905.

In Manitoba, the federal district of Winnipeg South has voted for the winning party in each election since it was re-formed in 1988; a previous version of the same riding, which elected MPs from 1917 until 1974 inclusive, voted against the national winner only three times. Also in Manitoba, the provincial riding of Rossmere, which has existed since 1969, has voted for the candidate from the governing party in every election since it was first contested except for the 1977 general election and a 1993 by-election.

Germany

Since the creation of the Federal Republic of Germany (then West Germany) in 1949, the state where the leading party list vote ('' Zweitstimmen'') matched the party of the subsequently chosen Chancellor the most times is Schleswig-Holstein (with two misses: 1969 and 2005), followed by the state of Lower Saxony (with misses in 1949, 1969 and 2005). Both states lie in the North of the country, neither containing many large industrial cities (the biggest being Kiel and Hannover respectively), nor large rural Catholic populations, the traditional base of the SPD and CDU/CSU respectively. Schleswig-Holstein is also famous for having had several state elections result in a one-seat majority for the winning coalition and Lower Saxony's 1998 election (in which Gerhard Schröder was the SPD candidate) is often seen as a "trial run" for the subsequent federal election (which Schröder also won). Both the 1949 and the 1969 elections were rather narrow, the former resulting in a one-vote majority in the election for chancellor and the latter resulting in a 12-seat majority that had broken down due to defections by 1972. In 2005 SPD and CDU/CSU were only separated by one percentage point and four seats in the final tally. In the 2021 German federal election the SPD placed first in 12 out of 16 states, including Schleswig-Holstein and Lower Saxony as well as federally while being led by former First Mayor of Hamburg, Olaf Scholz, the State of Hamburg borders both Lower Saxony and Schleswig-Holstein, but Scholz did not run in Hamburg during that election, instead representing the District Potsdam – Potsdam-Mittelmark II – Teltow-Fläming II in Brandenburg (where he incidentally ran against Annalena Baerbock candidate for chancellor of Alliance 90/The Greens, drawing additional media attention to the District).

India

Two individual seats, Valsad (Lok Sabha constituency), Valsad and West Delhi (Lok Sabha constituency), West Delhi, have successfully voted for the victorious party for the last eleven General elections in india, general elections in India. Furthermore, the party that wins the majority of seats in List of constituencies of the Lok Sabha#NCT of Delhi (7), Delhi has always gone on to form the national government since 1998.

The state of List of constituencies of the Lok Sabha#Uttar Pradesh (80), Uttar Pradesh is also seen as a bellwether, with the national government having been formed the majority of times by the party that won the most seats in the state.

Ireland

Ireland has a proportional representation electoral system, in which politicians are elected by the single transferable vote. Bellwethers here can only be measured by the number of candidates from each side elected to Ireland's multiple-seat constituencies that elect an odd number of members. Between the 1981 Irish general election, 1981 general election and 2011 Irish general election, 2011 general election, Meath (Dáil constituency), Meath and its successors, Meath East (Dáil constituency), Meath East and Meath West (Dáil constituency), Meath West, have elected a majority of Fianna Fáil Teachta Dála, TDs in years when Fianna Fáil formed the government, and a majority of Fine Gael and Labour Party (Ireland), Labour TDs when those parties formed the government.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, there are three generally accepted bellwether electorates: Hamilton East (New Zealand electorate), Hamilton East and Hamilton West (New Zealand electorate), Hamilton West, both based around the city of Hamilton, New Zealand, Hamilton, and Northcote (New Zealand electorate), Northcote on Auckland's North Shore. Hamilton West and Northcote missed one election each since they were first contested in 1969 and 1996 respectively — the for Hamilton West and the for Northcote. Hamilton East, first contested in 1972, has missed three elections — 1993, 1999 New Zealand general election, 1999, and 2005. They were all held by the New Zealand National Party, National Party in 2017 New Zealand general election, the 2017 election although New Zealand Labour Party, Labour formed the government after the election. Since the New Zealand National Party, National Party was still returned as the largest party in Parliament, however, the two electorates did in fact retain their bellwether status, albeit to a limited extent.

Philippines

In the Philippines, the winner of Philippine presidential election has won in Negros Oriental in all instances since 1935 Philippine presidential election, 1935 except for 1961 Philippine presidential election, 1961 and 2016 Philippine presidential election, 2016, and in Basilan since its creation in December 1973 (first election in 1981 Philippine presidential election and referendum, 1981). After Negros Oriental voted for the runner-up in 2016, Agusan del Norte and Lanao del Sur have the longest active streak, having its provincial winners be the elected president since the 1969 Philippine presidential election, 1969 election.

For vice presidential elections, Pangasinan has voted for the winner in all elections save for 1986 Philippine presidential election, 1986 and 2016 Philippine presidential election, 2016.

Portugal

In every general election to the Assembly of the Republic (Portugal), Portuguese National Assembly since the Portuguese transition to democracy, restoration of democracy in 1975, the electoral district of Braga District, Braga has voted for the party or coalition that has won the most seats in the election. (Note that following the 2015 Portuguese legislative election, elections of 2015, a minority government was eventually formed by the second-largest party in the Assembly.)

In every general, European Union, mayoral (except 2009), or presidential elections since the Carnation Revolution, the Portuguese capital of Lisbon voted for the party or coalition that won more percentage in the elections.

Romania

Presidential elections

The counties that voted in the first round for the winning candidate:
* Bucharest - 1 miss (2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
* Constanța County, Constanța - 1 miss (2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on. The highest rate (88%, 7/8). The longest continuous streak (6 in a row: 1990–2009).
* Alba County, Alba - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Arad County, Arad - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Bihor County, Bihor - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Brașov County, Brașov - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Cluj County, Cluj - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Sibiu County, Sibiu - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Timiș County, Timiș - 2 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992 and 2000 Romanian general election, 2000), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8). The longest continuous streak, still active (4 in a row: 2004–2019).
* Prahova County, Prahova - 2 misses (1996 Romanian general election, 1996 and 2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
* Ilfov County, Ilfov - 2 misses (2004 Romanian general election, 2004 and 2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (75%, 6/8).
* Bistrița-Năsăud County, Bistrița-Năsăud - 3 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992, 2000 Romanian general election, 2000 and 2004 Romanian general election, 2004), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
* Satu Mare County, Satu Mare - 3 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992, 2000 Romanian general election, 2000 and 2004 Romanian general election, 2004), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
* Sălaj County, Sălaj - 3 misses (1992 Romanian general election, 1992, 2000 Romanian general election, 2000 and 2004 Romanian general election, 2004), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
* Maramureș County, Maramureș - 3 misses (1996 Romanian general election, 1996, 2000 Romanian general election, 2000 and 2004 Romanian general election, 2004), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
* Suceava County, Suceava - 3 misses (1996 Romanian general election, 1996, 2004 Romanian general election, 2004 and 2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).
* Caraș-Severin County, Caraș-Severin - 3 misses (2000 Romanian general election, 2000, 2004 Romanian general election, 2004 and 2014 Romanian presidential election, 2014), from 1990 Romanian general election, 1990 on (63%, 5/8).

Sweden

The expression "" ('As Ljungby votes, Sweden votes') was coined in the early-1970s, but more recently (in 2006) voting results in Karlstad, Kalmar, and Halmstad more closely resembled the result of the whole nation in elections to the Riksdag.Som Karlstad röstar, röstar Sverige
", Statistiska Centralbyrån, 6 March 2006. Retrieved 27 March 2017.

According to Statistics Sweden, election results in Karlstad have been closest to the national results for three consecutive elections, a fact often highlighted by media through Gallup Polls showing voting intentions in the area.

United Kingdom

United Kingdom constituencies have been subject to frequent review since the late-1960s, particularly those of the House of Commons of the United Kingdom, House of Commons. Few constituencies are unchanged from one review to another. Therefore, true bellwethers are rare. However, it is possible to match new constituencies to old ones according to the destination of the bulk of the old electorate.

Long running bellwether constituencies
* The Dartford (UK Parliament constituency), Dartford constituency has reflected the overall result at every general election since 1964 United Kingdom general election, 1964.
* The Portsmouth North (UK Parliament constituency), Portsmouth North constituency, and its predecessor Portsmouth West (UK Parliament constituency), Portsmouth West, have reflected every overall result since 1966 United Kingdom general election, 1966.
* The Loughborough (UK Parliament constituency), Loughborough, Northampton North (UK Parliament constituency), Northampton North and Watford (UK Parliament constituency), Watford constituencies have reflected every result since the February 1974 United Kingdom general election, February 1974 election.
* The Stevenage (UK Parliament constituency), Stevenage constituency, and its predecessor Hertford and Stevenage (UK Parliament constituency), Hertford and Stevenage, have reflected the overall result in every general election since the February 1974 United Kingdom general election, February 1974 election.
* The Worcester (UK Parliament constituency), Worcester constituency has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979.
* The Stourbridge (UK Parliament constituency), Stourbridge constituency, and its predecessor, Halesowen and Stourbridge (UK Parliament constituency), Halesowen and Stourbridge, has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979.
* The Hendon (UK Parliament constituency), Hendon constituency, and its predecessor, Hendon North (UK Parliament constituency), Hendon North, has reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979.
* The Great Yarmouth (UK Parliament constituency), Great Yarmouth and Pudsey (UK Parliament constituency), Pudsey constituencies have reflected the overall result in every general election since 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979.
* The Reading West (UK Parliament constituency), Reading West, Amber Valley (UK Parliament constituency), Amber Valley, Erewash (UK Parliament constituency), Erewash, Norwich North (UK Parliament constituency), Norwich North, Harlow (UK Parliament constituency), Harlow, Hastings and Rye (UK Parliament constituency), Hastings and Rye, South Derbyshire (UK Parliament constituency), South Derbyshire, Stafford (UK Parliament constituency), Stafford and Corby (UK Parliament constituency), Corby constituencies have reflected every result since 1983 United Kingdom general election, 1983.
* The Nuneaton (UK Parliament constituency), Nuneaton constituency has been seen as an important national bellwether since 1997 United Kingdom general election, 1997.
* The Thurrock (UK Parliament constituency), Thurrock and Finchley and Golders Green (UK Parliament constituency), Finchley and Golders Green constituencies have reflected the overall result in every general election since 1997 United Kingdom general election, 1997
* The South Dorset (UK Parliament constituency), South Dorset constituency has reflected the overall result in every general election since 2001 United Kingdom general election, 2001
Former bellwether constituencies
* The Gravesham (UK Parliament constituency), Gravesham constituency (and its predecessor Gravesend (UK Parliament constituency), Gravesend) has reflected the overall result from 1955 United Kingdom general election, 1955, with the only exception being 2005 United Kingdom general election, 2005.
* The Luton South constituency (and its predecessors Luton East (UK Parliament constituency), Luton East and Luton (UK Parliament constituency), Luton) had reflected the overall result from 1951 United Kingdom general election, 1951 until 2010 United Kingdom general election, 2010.
*The Brentford and Isleworth constituency had reflected the overall result from 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979 until 2015 United Kingdom general election, 2015.
* The Bristol North West (UK Parliament constituency), Bristol North West constituency had reflected every result since the October 1974 United Kingdom general election, October 1974 election until 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017.
* The Lincoln (UK Parliament constituency), Lincoln constituency has reflected the overall result from the October 1974 United Kingdom general election, October 1974 election, with the only exception being 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017.
* The Braintree (UK Parliament constituency), Braintree constituency has reflected the overall result from 1979 United Kingdom general election, 1979, with the only exception being 2005 United Kingdom general election, 2005.
* The Bury North (UK Parliament constituency), Bury North constituency has reflected the overall result from 1983 United Kingdom general election, 1983, with the only exception being 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017.
* The Battersea (UK Parliament constituency), Battersea constituency had reflected every result from 1987 United Kingdom general election, 1987 until 2017 United Kingdom general election, 2017.
* The Basildon (UK Parliament constituency), Basildon constituency reflected every result from its creation in 1974 to its abolition in 2010.
* The Southampton Test (UK Parliament constituency), Southampton Test constituency reflected every result from 1966 to 2010.

While not strictly a bellwether, Sunderland South (UK Parliament constituency), Sunderland South was often used in election programming to predict the swing of a general election - principally because it was often the first to declare - with variable results.

* The Erewash constituency has correctly reflected the national result since the seat was created in 1983.

Scottish Parliament

The Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions from 2011, constituencies of Cunninghame North (Scottish Parliament constituency), Cunninghame North, Stirling (Scottish Parliament constituency), Stirling and Na h-Eileanan an Iar (Scottish Parliament constituency), Na h-Eileanan an Iar have all elected MSPs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Scottish Parliament#Elections, Scottish Parliament election.

Also, the constituencies of Almond Valley (Scottish Parliament constituency), Almond Valley, Dundee City West (Scottish Parliament constituency), Dundee City West, Edinburgh Eastern (Scottish Parliament constituency), Edinburgh Eastern, Glasgow Southside (Scottish Parliament constituency), Glasgow Southside, Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley (Scottish Parliament constituency), Kilmarnock and Irvine Valley and Mid Fife and Glenrothes (Scottish Parliament constituency), Mid Fife and Glenrothes each elected an MSP from the largest party in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, 2011 and 2016 Scottish Parliament election, 2016 elections. This continues the trend that their Scottish Parliament constituencies and regions 1999 to 2011, predecessor constituencies (Livingston (Scottish Parliament constituency), Livingston, Dundee West (Scottish Parliament constituency), Dundee West, Edinburgh East and Musselburgh (Scottish Parliament constituency), Edinburgh East & Musselburgh, Glasgow Govan (Scottish Parliament constituency), Glasgow Govan, Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Scottish Parliament constituency), Kilmarnock & Loudoun and Central Fife (Scottish Parliament constituency), Fife Central) achieved in the 1999 Scottish Parliament election, 1999, 2003 Scottish Parliament election, 2003 and 2007 Scottish Parliament election, 2007 elections.

Welsh Parliament

The following Senedd constituencies and electoral regions, constituencies (as of the 2016 election) have elected MSs from the party which won the plurality of seats in the election overall for every Senedd elections, Senedd (and former Assembly) election since 1999:

* Aberavon (Senedd constituency), Aberavon
* Alyn and Deeside (Senedd constituency), Alyn and Deeside
* Bridgend (Senedd constituency), Bridgend
* Caerphilly (Senedd constituency), Caerphilly
* Cardiff South and Penarth (Senedd constituency), Cardiff South and Penarth
* Cardiff West (Senedd constituency), Cardiff West
* Clwyd South (Senedd constituency), Clwyd South
* Cynon Valley (Senedd constituency), Cynon Valley
* Delyn (Senedd constituency), Delyn
* Gower (Senedd constituency), Gower
* Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney (Senedd constituency), Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney
* Neath (Senedd constituency), Neath
* Newport East (Senedd constituency), Newport East
* Newport West (Senedd constituency), Newport West
* Ogmore (Senedd constituency), Ogmore
* Pontypridd (Senedd constituency), Pontypridd
* Swansea East (Senedd constituency), Swansea East
* Swansea West (Senedd constituency), Swansea West
* Torfaen (Senedd constituency), Torfaen
* Vale of Clwyd (Senedd constituency), Vale of Clwyd
* Vale of Glamorgan (Senedd constituency), Vale of Glamorgan

Note that as Labour Party (UK), Labour has won the most seats in every election since the Welsh Assembly was founded in 1999, this is a list of seats which have always voted Labour.

United States

The American states with the current longest streak of voting for the winners in the electoral college are Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin; their streaks date back to only 2008. The American bellwether states can also be determined in different ways (with respect to presidential elections):

Highest percentage for varying lengths of time

* Ohio – 3 misses (1944 United States presidential election, 1944, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 2020 United States presidential election, 2020) from 1896 United States presidential election, 1896 on (90.6%, slightly "too Republican").
* Nevada – 3 misses (1908 United States presidential election, 1908, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976, 2016 United States presidential election, 2016) from 1904 United States presidential election, 1904 on (90.0%, slightly "too Democratic").
* New Mexico – 3 misses (1976 United States presidential election, 1976, 2000 United States presidential election, 2000, 2016 United States presidential election, 2016) from 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 on (89.3%, slightly "too Democratic").
* Florida – 3 misses (1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1992 United States presidential election, 1992, 2020 United States presidential election, 2020) from 1928 United States presidential election, 1928 on (87.5%, slightly "too Republican").
Highest percentage for a set length of time

Electoral record of the states for presidential elections, 1896–2020:
* Ohio – 29 wins out of 32 elections (90.6%)
* New Mexico – 25 wins out of 28 elections (89.3%)
* Illinois – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)
* Nevada – 27 wins out of 32 elections (84.4%)

Highest percentage of the Sixth Party System, current party system, 1980-2020

* Ohio – 1 miss (2020 United States presidential election, 2020) (90.9%)
* Nevada – 1 miss (2016 United States presidential election, 2016) (90.9%)
* New Mexico – 2 misses (2000 United States presidential election, 2000, 2016 United States presidential election, 2016) (81.8%)
* Florida – 2 misses (1992 United States presidential election, 1992, 2020 United States presidential election, 2020) (81.8%)
* Colorado – 2 misses (1996 United States presidential election, 1996, 2016 United States presidential election, 2016) (81.8%)
* New Hampshire – 2 misses (2004 United States presidential election, 2004, 2016 United States presidential election, 2016) (81.8%)
* Pennsylvania – 2 misses (2000 United States presidential election, 2000, 2004 United States presidential election, 2004) (81.8%)

Smallest deviation from the national average

Another way to measure how much a state's results reflect the national average is how far the state deviates from the national results. The states with the least deviation from a two-party presidential vote from 1896 to 2012 include:

* Ohio – 2.2%
* New Mexico – 2.8%
* Illinois – 3.6%
* Missouri – 3.7%
* Delaware – 3.7%

States that were considered bellwether states from the mid-to-late 20th century until the early 21st century include:
* Arizona – Perfect from 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 to 1956 United States presidential election, 1956.
* Delaware – Perfect from 1952 United States presidential election, 1952 to 1996 United States presidential election, 1996, the only state with this distinction. As a result of massive growth and a move to the Democrats in New Castle County, Delaware (suburban Philadelphia, with the old industrial city of Wilmington, Delaware, Wilmington), the state has become reliably Democratic. New Castle County had previously voted for the winning candidate in every election from 1936 United States presidential election, 1936 to 1996 United States presidential election, 1996.
* North Dakota – Perfect from 1896 United States presidential election, 1896 to 1936 United States presidential election, 1936.
* Kansas – Perfect from 1900 United States presidential election, 1900 to 1936 United States presidential election, 1936.
* Missouri was often referred to as the ''Missouri bellwether'' as it produced the same outcome as the national results in the United States presidential election, presidential election 96.2% of the time for the century between 1904 United States presidential election, 1904 and 2004 United States presidential election, 2004, only missing in 1956 United States presidential election, 1956. It is considered to have lost its bellwether status with the 2008 United States presidential election, 2008 presidential election.
* Washington (state), Washington – 1 miss from 1900 United States presidential election, 1900 to 1956 United States presidential election, 1956 (in 1912 United States presidential election, 1912).
* Minnesota – 1 miss from 1920 United States presidential election, 1920 to 1976 United States presidential election, 1976 (in 1968 United States presidential election, 1968).
* Texas – 1 miss from 1928 United States presidential election, 1928 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988 (in 1968 United States presidential election, 1968).
* Arkansas – 1 miss from 1960 United States presidential election, 1960 to 2004 United States presidential election, 2004 (in 1968 United States presidential election, 1968).
* Idaho – 2 misses (1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1904 United States presidential election, 1904 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988.
* Tennessee – 2 misses (1924 United States presidential election, 1924, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960) from 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 to 2004 United States presidential election, 2004.
* New Jersey – 2 misses (1948 United States presidential election, 1948, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1920 United States presidential election, 1920 to 1996 United States presidential election, 1996.
* Virginia – 2 misses (1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1928 United States presidential election, 1928 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988. Was traditionally Republican at the time. Otherwise, the state was traditionally Democratic. Although the 2012 United States presidential election, 2012 election was not included in this bellwether run, Virginia was actually the closest state to the national vote in 2012. Donald Trump, however, managed to win in 2016 United States presidential election, the next election without Virginia.
* Illinois – 3 misses (1884 United States presidential election, 1884, 1916 United States presidential election, 1916, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1852 United States presidential election, 1852 to 1996 United States presidential election, 1996, the most reliable in this period. As the Chicago metropolitan area shifted to become overwhelmingly Democratic, the state lost its bellwether status. No Republican had ever won the White House without taking Illinois prior to 2000.
* California – 3 misses (1912 United States presidential election, 1912, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1888 United States presidential election, 1888 to 1996 United States presidential election, 1996.
* Utah – 3 misses (1912 United States presidential election, 1912, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1900 United States presidential election, 1900 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988.
* Wyoming – 3 misses (1944 United States presidential election, 1944, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1900 United States presidential election, 1900 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988.
* Montana – 3 misses (1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976, 1996 United States presidential election, 1996) from 1904 United States presidential election, 1904 to 2004 United States presidential election, 2004.
* Kentucky – 3 misses (1920 United States presidential election, 1920, 1952 United States presidential election, 1952, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960) from 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 to 2004 United States presidential election, 2004.
* Oklahoma – 3 misses (1924 United States presidential election, 1924, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 to 1988 United States presidential election, 1988.
* New Hampshire – 3 misses (1948 United States presidential election, 1948, 1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976) from 1936 United States presidential election, 1936 to 2000 United States presidential election, 2000.
* Colorado – 3 misses (1960 United States presidential election, 1960, 1976 United States presidential election, 1976, 1996 United States presidential election, 1996) from 1948 United States presidential election, 1948 to 2012 United States presidential election, 2012.
* Iowa – 3 misses (1976 United States presidential election, 1976, 1988 United States presidential election, 1988, 2000 United States presidential election, 2000) from 1964 United States Presidential Election, 1964 to 2016 United States presidential election, 2016.

States that were bellwether states a very long time ago include:
* Pennsylvania – One miss from 1800 United States presidential election, 1800 to 1880 United States presidential election, 1880 (in 1824 United States presidential election, 1824).
* Indiana – One miss from 1852 United States presidential election, 1852 to 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 (in 1876 United States presidential election, 1876).
* Wisconsin – One miss from 1860 United States presidential election, 1860 to 1912 United States presidential election, 1912 (in 1884 United States presidential election, 1884).
* New York (state), New York – One miss from 1880 United States presidential election, 1880 to 1944 United States presidential election, 1944 (in 1916 United States presidential election, 1916). It previously had a perfect streak from 1816 United States presidential election, 1816 to 1852 United States presidential election, 1852. Had the most electoral votes during the entire period.

In addition, the Territory of Guam has had no misses from 1984 United States presidential election, 1984 to 2012 United States presidential election, 2012 (100.0%). Guam has no Electoral College (United States), electoral college votes, but conducts a United States presidential straw polls in Guam, presidential straw vote on local election day. Also of note, from 1996 through 2012, Ohio was within 1.85% of the national popular vote result. Due to the Electoral College (United States), Electoral College system, a bellwether of sufficient size is often also a focus of national attention and presidential campaigns as a so-called swing state that can decide the election one way or the other. As of 2016, Ohio and Florida were seen by political pundits and national campaigns as the most important swing states due to their large number of electoral votes and political volatility. No Republican has won the presidency while losing Ohio, so election results from Ohio are a good indicator of how successful that party's candidate is. However, it was generally acknowledged that the Democratic candidate tended to have a better chance of winning the presidency without Ohio and Florida. In 2000, the presidential election devolved into a controversial decision in ''Bush v. Gore'' which ultimately hinged the contest on a recount of Florida, that – had it gone for Gore – would have swung the Electoral College vote. After the 2020 United States Presidential election, 2020 election, it became clear that Ohio and Florida had begun to trend more Republican, and Joe Biden defeated incumbent Donald Trump without winning either state. Arizona, which no Democratic candidate had won since 1996 United States presidential election, 1996, and Georgia, which no Democratic candidate had won since 1992 United States presidential election, 1992, both narrowly went to Biden, possibly replacing Ohio and Florida as major swing states.

Others

* Brazil — In Brazilian direct presidential elections, the state of Minas Gerais is where the winning candidate took the lead in the Two-round system, last-round election from 1955 Brazilian presidential election, 1955 to 2022 Brazilian presidential election, 2022.
* France — Since the establishment of the French Fifth Republic, the president was elected by popular vote in 1965 French presidential election, 1965 up to 2022 French presidential election, 2022, five departments have always voted the chosen candidate in the second round: Ardèche, Calvados (department), Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Indre-et-Loire and Loire (department), Loire. No region has done so in the first round.
* South Korea — Since the 1987 South Korean presidential election, 1987 presidential election, the central Administrative divisions of South Korea, province of North Chungcheong was the one in which the most voted candidate for the President of South Korea, presidency was the national winner.
* Spain — Since democracy was restored in 1977, up to 2019- two provinces have always voted for the winning party (Province of Zaragoza, Zaragoza and Province of Huesca, Huesca). The Autonomous communities of Spain, Autonomous Community of Aragon, where said provinces are located. Aragon is, moreover, the sole Autonomous Community to have done so.
* Taiwan — From the first competitive multi-party elections in 1996 Taiwan presidential election, 1996 on, the Changhua County was the Subdivisions of Taiwan, region of Taiwan where the leading presidential candidate became the elected president of the country.

See also

* As Maine goes, so goes the nation
* Bellwether trial
* Early adopter
* wikt:harbinger, Harbinger
* Peer-mediated instruction
* Swing state
* Sentinel species
* Tipping-point state
* ''Will it play in Peoria?''

References

{{Reflist, 30em

Social concepts
Economic concepts
Political science terminology
Metaphors referring to sheep or goats