Backstop resources theory states that as a heavily used limited resource becomes expensive, alternative resources will become cheap by comparison, therefore making the alternatives economically viable options. In the long term, the theory implies faith that

technological progress Technology is the application of knowledge to reach practical goals in a specifiable and reproducible way. The word ''technology'' may also mean the product of such an endeavor. The use of technology is widely prevalent in medicine, science, ...

will allow backstop resources to be essentially unlimited (see also

Cornucopian Cornucopianism is the idea that continued progress and provision of material items for mankind can be met by similarly continued advances in technology. It relies on the belief that there is enough matter and energy on the Earth to provide for the ...

), and that need will cause the development of new technologies to become cost effective. This idea is supported by economist

Robert Solow Robert Merton Solow, GCIH (; born August 23, 1924) is an American economist whose work on the theory of economic growth culminated in the exogenous growth model named after him. He is currently Emeritus Institute Professor of Economics at the Ma ...

who claimed that four-fifths of US economic growth could be attributed to technological development (the other fifth being accounted for by expansion of labor and capital).

Implications to peak oil

Peak Oil Peak oil is the hypothetical point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which it is argued that production will begin an irreversible decline. It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while ...

derives from the

Hubbert peak theory The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak ...

, which theorizes that production of any finite resource over time will have roughly inverse curves before and after the peak of the resource's production ( creating an approximately bell shaped curve). Hubbert's theory is used to predict when a resource will reach its peak of production by studying past resource discovery and production trends.

advocates often show only crude oil production which may have set a global peak in 2005. Backstop resource theory maintains that alternatives will be developed as they are needed.

Historical examples

Cuba Cuba ( , ), officially the Republic of Cuba ( es, República de Cuba, links=no ), is an island country comprising the island of Cuba, as well as Isla de la Juventud and several minor archipelagos. Cuba is located where the northern Caribbea ...

, during its

Special Period The Special Period ( es, Período especial, link=no), officially the Special Period in the Time of Peace (), was an extended period of economic crisis in Cuba that began in 1991 primarily due to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and, by exten ...

following the collapse of the

Soviet Union The Soviet Union,. officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. (USSR),. was a transcontinental country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 to 1991. A flagship communist state, it was nominally a federal union of fifteen national ...

, increased sugar cane

ethanol Ethanol (abbr. EtOH; also called ethyl alcohol, grain alcohol, drinking alcohol, or simply alcohol) is an organic compound. It is an Alcohol (chemistry), alcohol with the chemical formula . Its formula can be also written as or (an ethyl ...

production to offset lost crude oil imports from the Soviet Union. Canada is the largest single source of oil imports for the United States. As oil prices spiked following the

1979 energy crisis The 1979 oil crisis, also known as the 1979 Oil Shock or Second Oil Crisis, was an energy crisis caused by a drop in oil production in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. Although the global oil supply only decreased by approximately four per ...

, Canada began significant production of oil derived from

tar sands Oil sands, tar sands, crude bitumen, or bituminous sands, are a type of unconventional petroleum deposit. Oil sands are either loose sands or partially consolidated sandstone containing a naturally occurring mixture of sand, clay, and wate ...

, also known as

bitumen Asphalt, also known as bitumen (, ), is a sticky, black, highly viscous liquid or semi-solid form of petroleum. It may be found in natural deposits or may be a refined product, and is classed as a pitch. Before the 20th century, the term a ...

. The U.S. Department of Energy's

Energy Information Administration The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System responsible for collecting, analyzing, and disseminating energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and publ ...

(EIA) states that historic Canadian Tar Sand production rose from in 1980 to in 2004. EIA's 2007 International Energy Outlook estimates that tar sand production will climb to in 2015 and in 2030.

South Africa South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. It is bounded to the south by of coastline that stretch along the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans; to the north by the neighbouring countri ...

responded to anti-apartheid embargoes by switching from imported crude oil to

coal liquefaction Coal liquefaction is a process of converting coal into liquid hydrocarbons: liquid fuels and petrochemicals. This process is often known as "Coal to X" or "Carbon to X", where X can be many different hydrocarbon-based products. However, the most c ...

producing gasoline and diesel profitably from coal and natural gas using Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. The EIA estimates global coal-to-liquids production will climb to in 2015 and in 2030.

Criticism

Environmental economists and critics of globalized capitalism take issue with this theory for a number of reasons. Environmentalists disagree with Solow's conclusion about the role of technology because it neglects to consider the increases in

exploitation of natural resources The exploitation of natural resources is the use of natural resources for economic growth, sometimes with a negative connotation of accompanying environmental degradation. It started to emerge on an industrial scale in the 19th century as the ex ...

which may be responsible for much of the growth attributed to technology.

Anti-globalists The anti-globalization movement or counter-globalization movement, is a social movement critical of economic globalization. The movement is also commonly referred to as the global justice movement, alter-globalization movement, anti-globalist m ...

apply a similar argument, but tend to focus on exploitation of third world societies rather than the environment. The theory also neglects to account for certain requisite properties of the resources in question and the development of necessary infrastructure. It may be possible to design a car to run on hydrogen, but widescale construction of a hydrogen infrastructure is a far more complex problem, especially in a scenario in which the major resource is already becoming scarce.

References

{{Population Resource economics Peak oil