Arab Winter
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The Arab Winter is a term for the resurgence of
authoritarianism Authoritarianism is a political system characterized by the rejection of political plurality, the use of strong central power to preserve the political '' status quo'', and reductions in the rule of law, separation of powers, and democratic vot ...
and
Islamic extremism Islamic extremism, Islamist extremism, or radical Islam, is used in reference to extremist beliefs and behaviors which are associated with the Islamic religion. These are controversial terms with varying definitions, ranging from academic unde ...
in some Arab countries in the 2010s in the aftermath of the
Arab Spring The Arab Spring ( ar, الربيع العربي) was a series of Nonviolent resistance, anti-government protests, Rebellion, uprisings and Insurgency, armed rebellions that spread across much of the Arab world in the early 2010s. It began in T ...
protests. The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across
Arab League The Arab League ( ar, الجامعة العربية, ' ), formally the League of Arab States ( ar, جامعة الدول العربية, '), is a regional organization in the Arab world, which is located in Northern Africa, Western Africa, E ...
countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian Civil War, the
Iraqi insurgency Iraqi insurgency may refer to: * Iraqi insurgency (2003–2011), part of the Iraq War ** Iraqi insurgency (2003–2006), 2003–2006 phase of the Iraqi insurgency ** Iraqi civil war (2006–2008), multi-sided civil war in Iraq * Iraqi insurgency (20 ...
and the subsequent
War in Iraq This is a list of wars involving the Republic of Iraq and its predecessor states. Other armed conflicts involving Iraq * Wars during Mandatory Iraq ** Ikhwan raid on South Iraq 1921 * Smaller conflicts, revolutions, coups and periphery confli ...
, the
Egyptian Crisis Egyptian describes something of, from, or related to Egypt. Egyptian or Egyptians may refer to: Nations and ethnic groups * Egyptians, a national group in North Africa ** Egyptian culture, a complex and stable culture with thousands of years of ...
, the
First Libyan Civil War The First Libyan Civil War was an armed conflict in 2011 in the North African country of Libya that was fought between forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and rebel groups that were seeking to oust his government. It erupted with the Libya ...
and the subsequent
Second Libyan Civil War {{Infobox military conflict , conflict = Second Libyan Civil War , partof = the Arab Winter, Libyan Crisis (2011–present), Libyan Crisis, Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict, War on terror, and Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomat ...
, and the
Yemeni Civil War Yemeni Civil War may refer to several historical events which have taken place in Yemen: *Alwaziri coup, February – March 1948 *Yemeni–Adenese clan violence, 1956–60 *North Yemen Civil War, 1962–70 *Aden Emergency, 1963–67 *South Yemen#Di ...
. Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in
Egypt Egypt ( ar, مصر , ), officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and southwest corner of Asia via a land bridge formed by the Sinai Peninsula. It is bordered by the Mediter ...
that led to the removal of
Mohamed Morsi Mohamed Mohamed Morsi Eissa al-AyyatThe spellings of his first and last names vary. survey of 14 news organizations plus Wikipedia in July 2012Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi; (born 19 November 1954) is an Egyptian politician and retired military officer who has served as the sixth and current president of Egypt since 2014. Before retiring as a general in the Egyptian mil ...
in the
2013 Egyptian coup d'état The 2013 Egyptian coup d'etat took place on 3 July 2013. Egyptian army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi led a coalition to remove the democratically elected President of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, from power and suspended the Egyptian constitut ...
. The term was first coined by Chinese political scientist Zhang Weiwei during a debate with American political scientist
Francis Fukuyama Francis Yoshihiro Fukuyama (; born October 27, 1952) is an American political scientist, political economist, international relations scholar and writer. Fukuyama is known for his book ''The End of History and the Last Man'' (1992), which argue ...
on June 27, 2011. Fukuyama believed the Arab Spring movement would inevitably spread to China, while Zhang predicted the Arab Spring will soon turn into an Arab Winter. According to scholars of the
University of Warsaw The University of Warsaw ( pl, Uniwersytet Warszawski, la, Universitas Varsoviensis) is a public university in Warsaw, Poland. Established in 1816, it is the largest institution of higher learning in the country offering 37 different fields of ...
, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset, in 2014. The Arab Winter is characterized by the emergence of multiple regional
war War is an intense armed conflict between states, governments, societies, or paramilitary groups such as mercenaries, insurgents, and militias. It is generally characterized by extreme violence, destruction, and mortality, using regular o ...
s, mounting regional instability, economic and demographic decline of
Arab countries The Arab world ( ar, اَلْعَالَمُ الْعَرَبِيُّ '), formally the Arab homeland ( '), also known as the Arab nation ( '), the Arabsphere, or the Arab states, refers to a vast group of countries, mainly located in Western As ...
, and ethno-religious sectarian strife. According to a study by the
American University of Beirut The American University of Beirut (AUB) ( ar, الجامعة الأميركية في بيروت) is a private, non-sectarian, and independent university chartered in New York with its campus in Beirut, Lebanon. AUB is governed by a private, aut ...
, by the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees. Perhaps the most significant event in the Arab Winter was the rise of the extremist group
Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant An Islamic state is a State (polity), state that has a form of government based on sharia, Islamic law (sharia). As a term, it has been used to describe various historical Polity, polities and theories of governance in the Islamic world. As a t ...
, which controlled swathes of land in the region from 2014 to 2019. In 2022, multiple armed conflicts are still continuing that might be seen as a result of the Arab Spring. The Syrian Civil War has caused massive political instability and economic hardship in Syria, with the Syrian currency plunging to new lows. In Yemen, a civil war and subsequent intervention by Saudi Arabia continues to affect the country. In Lebanon, a major banking crisis is threatening the economy of neighboring Syria.


Definition


Geography

The term "Arab Winter" refers to the events across
Arab League The Arab League ( ar, الجامعة العربية, ' ), formally the League of Arab States ( ar, جامعة الدول العربية, '), is a regional organization in the Arab world, which is located in Northern Africa, Western Africa, E ...
countries in the Middle East and North Africa, including the Syrian civil war, the
Iraqi insurgency Iraqi insurgency may refer to: * Iraqi insurgency (2003–2011), part of the Iraq War ** Iraqi insurgency (2003–2006), 2003–2006 phase of the Iraqi insurgency ** Iraqi civil war (2006–2008), multi-sided civil war in Iraq * Iraqi insurgency (20 ...
and the subsequent
War in Iraq This is a list of wars involving the Republic of Iraq and its predecessor states. Other armed conflicts involving Iraq * Wars during Mandatory Iraq ** Ikhwan raid on South Iraq 1921 * Smaller conflicts, revolutions, coups and periphery confli ...
, the
Egyptian Crisis Egyptian describes something of, from, or related to Egypt. Egyptian or Egyptians may refer to: Nations and ethnic groups * Egyptians, a national group in North Africa ** Egyptian culture, a complex and stable culture with thousands of years of ...
, the
First Libyan Civil War The First Libyan Civil War was an armed conflict in 2011 in the North African country of Libya that was fought between forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and rebel groups that were seeking to oust his government. It erupted with the Libya ...
and the subsequent
Second Libyan Civil War {{Infobox military conflict , conflict = Second Libyan Civil War , partof = the Arab Winter, Libyan Crisis (2011–present), Libyan Crisis, Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict, War on terror, and Qatar–Saudi Arabia diplomat ...
, and the
Yemeni Civil War Yemeni Civil War may refer to several historical events which have taken place in Yemen: *Alwaziri coup, February – March 1948 *Yemeni–Adenese clan violence, 1956–60 *North Yemen Civil War, 1962–70 *Aden Emergency, 1963–67 *South Yemen#Di ...
. Events referred to as the Arab Winter include those in
Egypt Egypt ( ar, مصر , ), officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and southwest corner of Asia via a land bridge formed by the Sinai Peninsula. It is bordered by the Mediter ...
that led to the removal of
Mohamed Morsi Mohamed Mohamed Morsi Eissa al-AyyatThe spellings of his first and last names vary. survey of 14 news organizations plus Wikipedia in July 2012Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi; (born 19 November 1954) is an Egyptian politician and retired military officer who has served as the sixth and current president of Egypt since 2014. Before retiring as a general in the Egyptian mil ...
in the
2013 Egyptian coup d'état The 2013 Egyptian coup d'etat took place on 3 July 2013. Egyptian army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi led a coalition to remove the democratically elected President of Egypt, Mohamed Morsi, from power and suspended the Egyptian constitut ...
. Political developments, particularly the restoration of authoritarianism and suppression of
civil liberties Civil liberties are guarantees and freedoms that governments commit not to abridge, either by constitution, legislation, or judicial interpretation, without due process. Though the scope of the term differs between countries, civil liberties may ...
in Egypt since July 3, 2013, have been described as constituting a "military winter" that functioned in opposition to the goals of the Arab Spring. Various militias and tribes have started fighting in Libya after a breakdown in negotiations. The arenas of Lebanon and
Bahrain Bahrain ( ; ; ar, البحرين, al-Bahrayn, locally ), officially the Kingdom of Bahrain, ' is an island country in Western Asia. It is situated on the Persian Gulf, and comprises a small archipelago made up of 50 natural islands and an ...
were also identified as areas of the Arab Winter.
Libya Libya (; ar, ليبيا, Lībiyā), officially the State of Libya ( ar, دولة ليبيا, Dawlat Lībiyā), is a country in the Maghreb region in North Africa. It is bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, Egypt to Egypt–Libya bo ...
was named as a scene of the Arab Winter, together with
Syria Syria ( ar, سُورِيَا or سُورِيَة, translit=Sūriyā), officially the Syrian Arab Republic ( ar, الجمهورية العربية السورية, al-Jumhūrīyah al-ʻArabīyah as-Sūrīyah), is a Western Asian country loc ...
, by Professor Sean Yom. The
Northern Mali conflict {{Infobox military conflict , conflict = Mali War , partof = the Islamist insurgency in the Sahel and the War on terror , image = MaliWar.svg , image_size = 380 , caption = Military situation ...
was often described as part of the " Islamist Winter". Political changes which occurred in
Tunisia ) , image_map = Tunisia location (orthographic projection).svg , map_caption = Location of Tunisia in northern Africa , image_map2 = , capital = Tunis , largest_city = capital , ...
, involving a change in government, as well as an ISIL insurgency, were also indicated by some as a possible "heading towards Arab Winter".


Beginning date

The first cases of usage of the Arab Winter term can be found since February 1, 2011. Then, the Arab Winter term began circulating in the media in late 2012 and getting popular since then, referring to the deterioration of many Arab Spring conflicts into prolonging and escalating events of sectarian strife and armed violence. In its December 2012 publication, ''
The Daily Telegraph ''The Daily Telegraph'', known online and elsewhere as ''The Telegraph'', is a national British daily broadsheet newspaper published in London by Telegraph Media Group and distributed across the United Kingdom and internationally. It was fo ...
'' referred to the year 2012 as the year of Arab Winter. According to scholars of the
University of Warsaw The University of Warsaw ( pl, Uniwersytet Warszawski, la, Universitas Varsoviensis) is a public university in Warsaw, Poland. Established in 1816, it is the largest institution of higher learning in the country offering 37 different fields of ...
, the Arab Spring fully devolved into the Arab Winter four years after its onset.Radoslaw Fiedler, Przemyslaw Osiewicz. ''Transformation processes in Egypt after 2011''. 2015. p182. This view was also supported by Prof. James Y. Simms Jr. in his 2015 opinion article for the ''
Richmond Times-Dispatch The ''Richmond Times-Dispatch'' (''RTD'' or ''TD'' for short) is the primary daily newspaper in Richmond, Virginia, Richmond, the capital of Virginia, and the primary newspaper of record for the state of Virginia. Circulation The ''Times-Dispatc ...
''. In early 2016, ''
The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British weekly newspaper printed in demitab format and published digitally. It focuses on current affairs, international business, politics, technology, and culture. Based in London, the newspaper is owned by The Econo ...
'' marked the situation across Arab world countries as "worse than ever", marking it as the ongoing Arab Winter.


Impact


Economic impact

According to the
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies The Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies is an Israeli think tank based in Tel Aviv, Israel, focused on the contemporary study and analysis of the Middle East and Africa. Its stated primary mission is to serve as a resource ...
, as of January 2014, the cost of Arab Winter upheaval across the Arab World was some $800 billion
USD The United States dollar (symbol: $; code: USD; also abbreviated US$ or U.S. Dollar, to distinguish it from other dollar-denominated currencies; referred to as the dollar, U.S. dollar, American dollar, or colloquially buck) is the official ...
. Some 16 million people in
Syria Syria ( ar, سُورِيَا or سُورِيَة, translit=Sūriyā), officially the Syrian Arab Republic ( ar, الجمهورية العربية السورية, al-Jumhūrīyah al-ʻArabīyah as-Sūrīyah), is a Western Asian country loc ...
,
Egypt Egypt ( ar, مصر , ), officially the Arab Republic of Egypt, is a transcontinental country spanning the northeast corner of Africa and southwest corner of Asia via a land bridge formed by the Sinai Peninsula. It is bordered by the Mediter ...
,
Iraq Iraq,; ku, عێراق, translit=Êraq officially the Republic of Iraq, '; ku, کۆماری عێراق, translit=Komarî Êraq is a country in Western Asia. It is bordered by Turkey to Iraq–Turkey border, the north, Iran to Iran–Iraq ...
,
Jordan Jordan ( ar, الأردن; tr. ' ), officially the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan,; tr. ' is a country in Western Asia. It is situated at the crossroads of Asia, Africa, and Europe, within the Levant region, on the East Bank of the Jordan Rive ...
and
Lebanon Lebanon ( , ar, لُبْنَان, translit=lubnān, ), officially the Republic of Lebanon () or the Lebanese Republic, is a country in Western Asia. It is located between Syria to the north and east and Israel to the south, while Cyprus li ...
were expected to require humanitarian assistance in 2014. According to ''
The Economist ''The Economist'' is a British weekly newspaper printed in demitab format and published digitally. It focuses on current affairs, international business, politics, technology, and culture. Based in London, the newspaper is owned by The Econo ...
'',
Malta Malta ( , , ), officially the Republic of Malta ( mt, Repubblika ta' Malta ), is an island country in the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of an archipelago, between Italy and Libya, and is often considered a part of Southern Europe. It lies ...
has "benefited" from the Arab Winter, as tourists who might otherwise be in Egypt or Tunisia opt for a safer alternative.


Casualties

According to a study by the
American University of Beirut The American University of Beirut (AUB) ( ar, الجامعة الأميركية في بيروت) is a private, non-sectarian, and independent university chartered in New York with its campus in Beirut, Lebanon. AUB is governed by a private, aut ...
, as of the summer of 2014, the Arab Winter had resulted in nearly a quarter of a million deaths and millions of refugees. Political columnist and commentator
George Will George Frederick Will (born May 4, 1941) is an American libertarian-conservative political commentator and author. He writes regular columns for ''The Washington Post'' and provides commentary for NBC News and MSNBC.Hadas Gold, Gold, Hadas (May ...
reported that as of early 2017, over 30,000 lives had been lost in Libya, 220,000–320,000 had been killed in Syria and 4 million refugees had been produced by the Syrian Civil War alone. The Arab Winter is still ongoing as of 2021. Casualties per crisis include: * Syrian Civil War - casualty figure at 570,000 killed and counting - Conflict ongoing * 2011 Iraqi insurgency, 2013 civil war, and subsequent Islamic State insurgency - casualty figure at 220,000+ killed and counting - Civil war declared over in 2017, insurgency ongoing *
Yemeni Crisis Yemen (; ar, ٱلْيَمَن, al-Yaman), officially the Republic of Yemen,, ) is a country in Western Asia. It is situated on the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, and borders Saudi Arabia to the north and Oman to the northeast and s ...
- casualty figure at 100,000+ killed and counting - Conflict ongoing *
Libyan Crisis Demographics of Libya is the demography of Libya, specifically covering population density, ethnicity, education level, health of the populace, economic status, and religious affiliations, as well as other aspects of the Libyan population. The ...
- casualty figure 40,000+ killed and counting - Conflict ongoing *
Egyptian Crisis Egyptian describes something of, from, or related to Egypt. Egyptian or Egyptians may refer to: Nations and ethnic groups * Egyptians, a national group in North Africa ** Egyptian culture, a complex and stable culture with thousands of years of ...
and
Sinai insurgency The Sinai insurgency is an ongoing insurgency in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, that was commenced by Islamist militants against Egyptian security forces, which have also included attacks on civilians. The insurgency began during the Egyptian C ...
- marked the start of the Arab winter, casualty figure 5,000+ killed and counting - Conflict ongoing


Migrant crisis

The political turmoil and violence in the Middle East and
North Africa North Africa, or Northern Africa is a region encompassing the northern portion of the African continent. There is no singularly accepted scope for the region, and it is sometimes defined as stretching from the Atlantic shores of Mauritania in ...
resulted in massive population displacement in the region.''“Displacement in the Middle East and North Africa: Between an Arab Winter and the Arab Spring”''. "In the midst of ongoing uprisings, violence, and political turmoil, widespread population displacement took place as a result of the conflict in Libya, the violence in Syria and upheaval in Yemen. In each of these contexts, the new waves of displacement took place in or to areas already struggling with previous waves, leading to multi-layered and complex crises

As a result, "boat people", which was once commonly referred to
Vietnamese boat people Vietnamese boat people ( vi, Thuyền nhân Việt Nam), also known simply as boat people, refers to the refugees who fled Vietnam by boat and ship following the end of the Vietnam War in 1975. This migration and humanitarian crisis was at its h ...
, became frequently used, including internally displaced persons and asylum-seekers and refugees who had previously been residing in Libya, Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, have headed towards the
European Union The European Union (EU) is a supranational political and economic union of member states that are located primarily in Europe. The union has a total area of and an estimated total population of about 447million. The EU has often been des ...
. The attempts by some Libyans, Syrians and Tunisians to seek safety from the violence by crossing the Mediterranean sea have triggered fears among European politicians and populations of arrivals that might "flood" their shores. This has spurred a flurry of legislative activity and patrolling of the waters to manage arrivals.


See also

*
List of modern conflicts in North Africa ''Note:'' *''"Modern" is defined as post- WWI period, from 1918 until today.'' *''"North Africa" has a definition approximately that of the Arab term Maghreb, in addition to Egypt'' *''"Conflict" is defined as a separate 100+ casualty incident ...
* Spillover of the Syrian civil war *
Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict {{Infobox military conflict , conflict = Iran–Saudi Arabia proxy conflict , width = , partof = the Arab Winter , image = Iran Saudi conflict 2022.png , image_size = 300px , caption ...
* Arab Summer


References


External links


RT – Flames, Fury & Frustration: Arab Spring spins into Arab Winter?

RT – CrossTalk: Arab Winter?

Arirang News – Prime Talk: Are we approaching an Arab Winter? Jang Ji-hyang, Asan Institute for Policy Studies

VICE – Arab Winter: Syrian refugees in Lebanon Bekaa Valley

Dimitar Mihaylov – Why the Arab Spring Turned into Arab Winter: Understanding the Middle East Crises through Culture, Religion, and Literature
{{Portal bar, Africa, Politics, Asia, War 2010s conflicts 2010s in Africa 2010s in Asia
Winter Winter is the coldest season of the year in polar and temperate climates. It occurs after autumn and before spring. The tilt of Earth's axis causes seasons; winter occurs when a hemisphere is oriented away from the Sun. Different cultures ...
Arab history History of North Africa History of the Middle East