''Apollo’s Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything'' is a non-fiction book about

prediction A prediction (Latin ''præ-'', "before," and ''dictum'', "something said") or forecast is a statement about a future event or about future data. Predictions are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge of forecasters. There ...

written by Canadian author and

mathematician A mathematician is someone who uses an extensive knowledge of mathematics in their work, typically to solve mathematical problems. Mathematicians are concerned with numbers, data, quantity, mathematical structure, structure, space, Mathematica ...

David Orrell. The book was initially published in Canada by

HarperCollins HarperCollins Publishers LLC is a British–American publishing company that is considered to be one of the "Big Five (publishers), Big Five" English-language publishers, along with Penguin Random House, Hachette Book Group USA, Hachette, Macmi ...

in 2007, and was a national

bestseller A bestseller is a book or other media noted for its top selling status, with bestseller lists published by newspapers, magazines, and book store chains. Some lists are broken down into classifications and specialties (novel, nonfiction book, cookb ...

. It was published in the United States as ''The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction'', and translated versions were also published in Japan, South Korea and China. The book was taught as part of a university course in “Forecasting via Mathematical Modeling” at

Gustavus Adolphus College Gustavus Adolphus College ( ) is a private liberal arts college in St. Peter, Minnesota, United States. It was founded in 1862 by Swedish Americans led by Eric Norelius and is affiliated with the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America. Gustavu ...

in 2009.

Summary

In this book, Orrell explains the science of prediction to a general audience. The book begins with a general history of prediction from the

Delphic oracle Pythia (; ) was the title of the high priestess of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi. She specifically served as its oracle and was known as the Oracle of Delphi. Her title was also historically glossed in English as the Pythoness. The Pythia w ...

to the present day. The next part considers three different areas of prediction in detail: weather, health and economics. It argues that these are all examples of

complex systems A complex system is a system composed of many components that may interact with one another. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication s ...

that cannot be reduced to equations. As

mathematical models A mathematical model is an abstract description of a concrete system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed ''mathematical modeling''. Mathematical models are used in applied mathemati ...

become more refined, the number of unknown

parameters A parameter (), generally, is any characteristic that can help in defining or classifying a particular system (meaning an event, project, object, situation, etc.). That is, a parameter is an element of a system that is useful, or critical, when ...

tends to explode. At the same time, networks of interlocking

feedback Feedback occurs when outputs of a system are routed back as inputs as part of a chain of cause and effect that forms a circuit or loop. The system can then be said to ''feed back'' into itself. The notion of cause-and-effect has to be handle ...

loops make the models unstable. According to Orrell, the resulting model error (rather than e.g. the

butterfly effect In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. The term is closely associated w ...

) is the main reason why forecasts go wrong. In the final part, the book turns to predictions for the future, including the long-term

effects of climate change Effects of climate change are well documented and growing for Earth's natural environment and human societies. Changes to the climate system include an Instrumental temperature record, overall warming trend, Effects of climate change on the ...

. It concludes with some thoughts for the future, as well as a reminder that all such forecasts are unreliable. The title of the book is a reference to a mythical arrow that once belonged to the god

Apollo Apollo is one of the Twelve Olympians, Olympian deities in Ancient Greek religion, ancient Greek and Ancient Roman religion, Roman religion and Greek mythology, Greek and Roman mythology. Apollo has been recognized as a god of archery, mu ...

. According to legend, the arrow was gifted by a priest to

Pythagoras Pythagoras of Samos (; BC) was an ancient Ionian Greek philosopher, polymath, and the eponymous founder of Pythagoreanism. His political and religious teachings were well known in Magna Graecia and influenced the philosophies of P ...

, allowing him to dart through space and time.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:Apollo's Arrow Science books 2007 non-fiction books