Anthony Downs (November 21, 1930October 2, 2021) was an American economist specializing in
public policy
Public policy is an institutionalized proposal or a decided set of elements like laws, regulations, guidelines, and actions to solve or address relevant and real-world problems, guided by a conception and often implemented by programs. Public p ...
and
public administration
Public Administration (a form of governance) or Public Policy and Administration (an academic discipline) is the implementation of public policy, administration of government establishment (public governance), management of non-profit establ ...
. His research focuses included
political choice theory
Political economy is the study of how economic systems (e.g. markets and national economies) and political systems (e.g. law, institutions, government) are linked. Widely studied phenomena within the discipline are systems such as labour mar ...
,
rent control
Rent regulation is a system of laws, administered by a court or a public authority, which aims to ensure the affordability of housing and tenancies on the rental market for dwellings. Generally, a system of rent regulation involves:
* Price con ...
,
affordable housing
Affordable housing is housing which is deemed affordable to those with a household income at or below the median as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. Most of the literature on affo ...
, and
transportation economics
Transport economics is a branch of economics founded in 1959 by American economist John R. Meyer that deals with the allocation of resources within the transport sector. It has strong links to civil engineering. Transport economics differs from ...
. He wrote a number of books including, ''
An Economic Theory of Democracy
''An Economic Theory of Democracy'' is a treatise of economics written by Anthony Downs, published in 1957. The book set forth a model with precise conditions under which economic theory could be applied to non-market political decision-making. ...
'' (1957) and ''Inside Bureaucracy'' (1967), which have been major influences on the
public choice
Public choice, or public choice theory, is "the use of economic tools to deal with traditional problems of political science".Gordon Tullock, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, 9872008, "public choice," ''The New Palgrave Dictionar ...
school of
political economy
Political economy is the study of how Macroeconomics, economic systems (e.g. Marketplace, markets and Economy, national economies) and Politics, political systems (e.g. law, Institution, institutions, government) are linked. Widely studied ph ...
. In ''Downs's Law of Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion'' (1962), he accurately predicted that expanding expressways could not reduce traffic congestion, since demand would increase as well, and that reducing speeds increases capacity.
He served as a senior senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution, often stylized as simply Brookings, is an American research group founded in 1916. Located on Think Tank Row in Washington, D.C., the organization conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in ec ...
in
Washington, D.C.
)
, image_skyline =
, image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...
, member of faculty at the
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, U of C, or UChi) is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois. Its main campus is located in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood. The University of Chicago is consistently ranked among the b ...
and a visiting fellow at the
Public Policy Institute of California
The Public Policy Institute of California is an independent, non-profit research institution. Based in San Francisco, California, the institute was established in 1994 by Bill Hewlett, of Hewlett-Packard, Roger Heyns, and Arjay Miller, with a $7 ...
in
San Francisco
San Francisco (; Spanish language, Spanish for "Francis of Assisi, Saint Francis"), officially the City and County of San Francisco, is the commercial, financial, and cultural center of Northern California. The city proper is the List of Ca ...
.
Early life
James Anthony Downs was born on November 21, 1930, in
Evanston, Illinois
Evanston ( ) is a city, suburb of Chicago. Located in Cook County, Illinois, United States, it is situated on the North Shore along Lake Michigan. Evanston is north of Downtown Chicago, bordered by Chicago to the south, Skokie to the west, Wil ...
.
His father was the founder of a consulting firm, Real Estate Research Corporation, and a frequent speaker on real estate related topics. He grew up in
Park Ridge, Illinois
Park Ridge is a city in Cook County, Illinois, Cook County, Illinois, United States, and a Chicago suburb. Per the 2020 United States Census, 2020 census, the population was 39,656. It is located northwest of downtown Chicago. It is close to O' ...
, a suburb of Chicago.
He received a B.A. in international relations and political theory from
Carleton College
Carleton College ( ) is a private liberal arts college in Northfield, Minnesota. Founded in 1866, it had 2,105 undergraduate students and 269 faculty members in fall 2016. The 200-acre main campus is between Northfield and the 800-acre Cowling ...
in 1952.
During this time he was the elected president of the college student body. He would later credit this experience for some of his interests in studying democracy.
He went to the
Graduate School of Business at
Stanford University
Stanford University, officially Leland Stanford Junior University, is a private research university in Stanford, California. The campus occupies , among the largest in the United States, and enrolls over 17,000 students. Stanford is consider ...
on a scholarship to pursue his M.A. and Ph.D. in
economics
Economics () is the social science that studies the Production (economics), production, distribution (economics), distribution, and Consumption (economics), consumption of goods and services.
Economics focuses on the behaviour and intera ...
, obtaining his doctorate in 1956.
He enlisted in the
Navy
A navy, naval force, or maritime force is the branch of a nation's armed forces principally designated for naval warfare, naval and amphibious warfare; namely, lake-borne, riverine, littoral zone, littoral, or ocean-borne combat operations and ...
and served as an
intelligence officer
An intelligence officer is a person employed by an organization to collect, compile or analyze information (known as intelligence) which is of use to that organization. The word of ''officer'' is a working title, not a rank, used in the same way a ...
when he was drafted. During this time he also served on an aircraft carrier in the
Mediterranean Sea
The Mediterranean Sea is a sea connected to the Atlantic Ocean, surrounded by the Mediterranean Basin and almost completely enclosed by land: on the north by Western and Southern Europe and Anatolia, on the south by North Africa, and on the ea ...
. He quit the service after three years to join his father's consulting firm and also briefly served as a member of the faculty at the
University of Chicago
The University of Chicago (UChicago, Chicago, U of C, or UChi) is a private research university in Chicago, Illinois. Its main campus is located in Chicago's Hyde Park neighborhood. The University of Chicago is consistently ranked among the b ...
.
Career
Downs served as a consultant to many of the nation's largest corporations and public institutions, including the
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
The United States Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) is one of the executive departments of the U.S. federal government. It administers federal housing and urban development laws. It is headed by the Secretary of Housing and Urb ...
(HUD) and the
White House
The White House is the official residence and workplace of the president of the United States. It is located at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue NW in Washington, D.C., and has been the residence of every U.S. president since John Adams in 1800. ...
. President
Lyndon B. Johnson
Lyndon Baines Johnson (; August 27, 1908January 22, 1973), often referred to by his initials LBJ, was an American politician who served as the 36th president of the United States from 1963 to 1969. He had previously served as the 37th vice ...
appointed him to the National Commission on Urban Problems in 1967, and HUD Secretary
Jack Kemp
Jack French Kemp (July 13, 1935 – May 2, 2009) was an American politician and a professional football player. A member of the Republican Party from New York, he served as Housing Secretary in the administration of President George H. W. Bu ...
appointed him to the Advisory Commission on Regulatory Barriers to Affordable Housing in 1989. He was an officer or trustee of the
NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund
The NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund, Inc. (NAACP LDF, the Legal Defense Fund, or LDF) is a leading United States civil rights organization and law firm based in New York City.
LDF is wholly independent and separate from the NAACP. Altho ...
.
Democracy and the left–right continuum
In his
seminal
Seminal, ultimately from Latin ''semen'', "seed", may refer to:
*Relating to seeds
*Relating to semen
*(Of a work, event, or person) Having much social influence
Social influence comprises the ways in which individuals adjust their behavior to me ...
work, ''
An Economic Theory of Democracy
''An Economic Theory of Democracy'' is a treatise of economics written by Anthony Downs, published in 1957. The book set forth a model with precise conditions under which economic theory could be applied to non-market political decision-making. ...
'' (1957), Downs introduced a
left–right axis to economic theory. On the "left" he placed
communist parties
A communist party is a political party that seeks to realize the socio-economic goals of communism. The term ''communist party'' was popularized by the title of ''The Manifesto of the Communist Party'' (1848) by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels. A ...
that want entirely
state-planned economies, and on the "right" he placed
conservative
Conservatism is a cultural, social, and political philosophy that seeks to promote and to preserve traditional institutions, practices, and values. The central tenets of conservatism may vary in relation to the culture and civilization i ...
parties that demand an entirely deregulated economy.
He claimed that most voters have incomplete information when voting for political candidates in a democracy, and therefore will resort to economic issues of "how much government intervention in the economy there should be" and how parties will control this. Downs borrowed the curve from
Harold Hotelling
Harold Hotelling (; September 29, 1895 – December 26, 1973) was an American mathematical statistician and an influential economic theorist, known for Hotelling's law, Hotelling's lemma, and Hotelling's rule in economics, as well as Hotelling's T ...
, who developed it to explain how grocery stores targeted customers. Downs's book has since become one of the most cited books in
political science
Political science is the scientific study of politics. It is a social science dealing with systems of governance and power, and the analysis of political activities, political thought, political behavior, and associated constitutions and la ...
. His left–right axis model has been integrated into the
median voter theory The median voter theorem is a proposition relating to ranked voting, ranked preference voting put forward by Duncan Black in 1948.Duncan Black, "On the Rationale of Group Decision-making" (1948). It states that if voters and policies are distributed ...
first articulated by
Duncan Black
Duncan Black, FBA (23 May 1908 – 14 January 1991) was a Scottish economist who laid the foundations of social choice theory. In particular he was responsible for unearthing the work of many early political scientists, including Charles Lutw ...
.
In ''An Economic Theory of Democracy'' (1957), an early work in rational choice theory, Downs posited the
paradox of voting
The paradox of voting, also called Downs' paradox, is that for a rational, self-interested voter, the costs of voting will normally exceed the expected benefits. Because the chance of exercising the pivotal vote is minuscule compared to any r ...
, which claimed that significant elements of political life could not be explained in terms of voter
self-interest
Self-interest generally refers to a focus on the needs or desires (''interests'') of one's self. Most times, actions that display self-interest are often performed without conscious knowing. A number of philosophical, psychological, and economi ...
. Downs showed that in democracies the aggregate distribution of political opinion forms a
bell-shaped curve, with most voters possessing moderate opinions; he argued that this fact forces
political parties
A political party is an organization that coordinates candidates to compete in a particular country's elections. It is common for the members of a party to hold similar ideas about politics, and parties may promote specific ideological or pol ...
in democracies to adopt
centrist
Centrism is a political outlook or position involving acceptance or support of a balance of social equality and a degree of social hierarchy while opposing political changes that would result in a significant shift of society strongly to the l ...
positions.
Housing and traffic policy
Later, Downs concerned himself with housing policy, writing about
rent control
Rent regulation is a system of laws, administered by a court or a public authority, which aims to ensure the affordability of housing and tenancies on the rental market for dwellings. Generally, a system of rent regulation involves:
* Price con ...
and
affordable housing
Affordable housing is housing which is deemed affordable to those with a household income at or below the median as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. Most of the literature on affo ...
. ''The Revolution in Real Estate Finance'' (1985) predicted a long-term housing slowdown and decrease in housing prices. Downs had involved himself with
transportation economics
Transport economics is a branch of economics founded in 1959 by American economist John R. Meyer that deals with the allocation of resources within the transport sector. It has strong links to civil engineering. Transport economics differs from ...
.
In 1962, Downs published his ''Downs's Law of Peak-Hour Traffic Congestion''. This law states that on ''urban commuter expressways, peak-hour traffic congestion rises to meet maximum capacity''. Therefore, expanding the expressway network does not help against traffic jams. A complex set of forces lie behind this law, which were analyzed by presentation of a model of commuter decision-making and its underlying set of assumptions. Sometimes this effect is referred to as
Induced demand
In economics, induced demand – related to latent demand and generated demandSchneider, Benjamin (September 6, 2018"CityLab University: Induced Demand"''CityLab'' – is the phenomenon whereby an increase in supply results in a decline ...
. By the same token, e.g. the 1965 ''Highway Capacity Manual'' stated that the capacity of a highway or motorway increases with decreasing traffic speed, until its maximum capacity is reached at about 50 km/h (30 mph). (Cf.
Braess's paradox
Braess's paradox is the observation that adding one or more roads to a road network can slow down overall traffic flow through it. The paradox was discovered by the German mathematician Dietrich Braess in 1968.
The paradox may have analogies in ...
.)
His book, ''Stuck in Traffic'' (1992), which detailed the economic disadvantages of traffic congestion and proposed
road pricing
Road pricing (also road user charges) are direct charges levied for the use of roads, including road tolls, distance or time-based fees, congestion charges and charges designed to discourage the use of certain classes of vehicle, fuel sour ...
as the only effective means of alleviating it, was denounced by
traffic engineers
Traffic engineering is a branch of civil engineering that uses engineering techniques to achieve the safe and efficient movement of people and goods on roadways. It focuses mainly on research for safe and efficient traffic flow, such as road geo ...
for its insistence on the futility of congestion relief measures. However, enough of his gloomy predictions about congestion were proven correct that he successfully published a second edition, ''Still Stuck in Traffic'' (2004).
Downs's recommendations are starting to see implementation, largely in the form of
high-occupancy toll
A high-occupancy toll lane (or HOT lane) is a type of traffic lane or roadway that is available to high-occupancy vehicles and other exempt vehicles without charge; other vehicles are required to pay a variable fee that is adjusted in response t ...
(HOT) lanes in the
medians
The Medes ( Old Persian: ; Akkadian: , ; Ancient Greek: ; Latin: ) were an ancient Iranian people who spoke the Median language and who inhabited an area known as Media between western and northern Iran. Around the 11th century BC, th ...
of crowded American
freeway
A controlled-access highway is a type of highway that has been designed for high-speed vehicular traffic, with all traffic flow—ingress and egress—regulated. Common English terms are freeway, motorway and expressway. Other similar terms ...
s, and through
congestion pricing
Congestion pricing or congestion charges is a system of surcharging users of public goods that are subject to congestion through excess demand, such as through higher peak charges for use of bus services, electricity, metros, railways, tele ...
, already implemented in several cities around the world:
Singapore
Singapore (), officially the Republic of Singapore, is a sovereign island country and city-state in maritime Southeast Asia. It lies about one degree of latitude () north of the equator, off the southern tip of the Malay Peninsula, borde ...
(see
Area Licensing Scheme
The Singapore Area Licensing Scheme (ALS), ( Malay : Skim Perlesenan Kawasan Singapura) was a road pricing scheme introduced in 1975 to 1998, charged drivers who were entering downtown Singapore, and thereby aimed to manage traffic demand. This ...
and
Electronic Road Pricing
The Electronic Road Pricing (ERP) system is an electronic toll collection scheme adopted in Singapore to manage traffic by way of road pricing, and as a usage-based taxation mechanism to complement the purchase-based Certificate of Entitleme ...
);
London
London is the capital and largest city of England and the United Kingdom, with a population of just under 9 million. It stands on the River Thames in south-east England at the head of a estuary down to the North Sea, and has been a majo ...
(see
London congestion charge
The London congestion charge is a fee charged on most cars and motor vehicles being driven within the Congestion Charge Zone (CCZ) in Central London between 7:00 am and 6:00 pm Monday to Friday, and between 12:00 noon and 6:00 pm Saturday an ...
);
Stockholm
Stockholm () is the Capital city, capital and List of urban areas in Sweden by population, largest city of Sweden as well as the List of urban areas in the Nordic countries, largest urban area in Scandinavia. Approximately 980,000 people liv ...
(see
Stockholm congestion tax);
Valletta
Valletta (, mt, il-Belt Valletta, ) is an Local councils of Malta, administrative unit and capital city, capital of Malta. Located on the Malta (island), main island, between Marsamxett Harbour to the west and the Grand Harbour to the east, i ...
,
Malta
Malta ( , , ), officially the Republic of Malta ( mt, Repubblika ta' Malta ), is an island country in the Mediterranean Sea. It consists of an archipelago, between Italy and Libya, and is often considered a part of Southern Europe. It lies ...
; and
Milan
Milan ( , , Lombard: ; it, Milano ) is a city in northern Italy, capital of Lombardy, and the second-most populous city proper in Italy after Rome. The city proper has a population of about 1.4 million, while its metropolitan city h ...
,
Italy
Italy ( it, Italia ), officially the Italian Republic, ) or the Republic of Italy, is a country in Southern Europe. It is located in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea, and its territory largely coincides with the homonymous geographical re ...
.
He joined the
Brookings Institution
The Brookings Institution, often stylized as simply Brookings, is an American research group founded in 1916. Located on Think Tank Row in Washington, D.C., the organization conducts research and education in the social sciences, primarily in ec ...
, an American thinktank, in 1977. He continued his work on housing policies and traffic issues management at the institute.
He was the author or co-author of 24 books and more than 500 articles. His most influential books are ''
An Economic Theory of Democracy
''An Economic Theory of Democracy'' is a treatise of economics written by Anthony Downs, published in 1957. The book set forth a model with precise conditions under which economic theory could be applied to non-market political decision-making. ...
'' (1957) and ''Inside Bureaucracy'' (1967); widely translated, both are credited as major influences on the
public choice
Public choice, or public choice theory, is "the use of economic tools to deal with traditional problems of political science".Gordon Tullock, The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, 9872008, "public choice," ''The New Palgrave Dictionar ...
school of
political economy
Political economy is the study of how Macroeconomics, economic systems (e.g. Marketplace, markets and Economy, national economies) and Politics, political systems (e.g. law, Institution, institutions, government) are linked. Widely studied ph ...
.
He was a visiting fellow at the
Public Policy Institute of California
The Public Policy Institute of California is an independent, non-profit research institution. Based in San Francisco, California, the institute was established in 1994 by Bill Hewlett, of Hewlett-Packard, Roger Heyns, and Arjay Miller, with a $7 ...
in
San Francisco
San Francisco (; Spanish language, Spanish for "Francis of Assisi, Saint Francis"), officially the City and County of San Francisco, is the commercial, financial, and cultural center of Northern California. The city proper is the List of Ca ...
, between 2004 and 2005.
Personal life
Downs met his first wife, Mary Katherine Watson, at a high-school prom. During this time, he challenged her to a game of chess, which she won. The couple were married in 1956. They had five children. Kay died in 1998 from
ovarian cancer
Ovarian cancer is a cancerous tumor of an ovary. It may originate from the ovary itself or more commonly from communicating nearby structures such as fallopian tubes or the inner lining of the abdomen. The ovary is made up of three different c ...
.
Downs later married his second wife Darian Dreyfuss Olsen.
Anthony Downs died of natural causes in Bethesda, Maryland, on October 2, 2021.
See also
*
Rational choice theory
Rational choice theory refers to a set of guidelines that help understand economic and social behaviour. The theory originated in the eighteenth century and can be traced back to political economist and philosopher, Adam Smith. The theory postula ...
*
Rational ignorance
Rational ignorance is refraining from acquiring knowledge when the supposed cost of educating oneself on an issue exceeds the expected potential benefit that the knowledge would provide.
Ignorance about an issue is said to be "rational" when the ...
*
Induced demand
In economics, induced demand – related to latent demand and generated demandSchneider, Benjamin (September 6, 2018"CityLab University: Induced Demand"''CityLab'' – is the phenomenon whereby an increase in supply results in a decline ...
References
External links
* Simon Fraser University'
City Programhas
*
{{DEFAULTSORT:Downs, Anthony
1930 births
2021 deaths
People from Evanston, Illinois
Economists from Illinois
Carleton College alumni
Stanford University alumni
Public choice theory
RAND Corporation people
Brookings Institution people
Member of the Mont Pelerin Society