Ansley Johnson Coale (November 14, 1917 – November 5, 2002), was one of America's foremost
demographer
Demography () is the statistics, statistical study of populations, especially human beings.
Demographic analysis examines and measures the dimensions and Population dynamics, dynamics of populations; it can cover whole societies or groups ...
s. A native to
Baltimore
Baltimore ( , locally: or ) is the List of municipalities in Maryland, most populous city in the U.S. state of Maryland, fourth most populous city in the Mid-Atlantic (United States), Mid-Atlantic, and List of United States cities by popula ...
,
Maryland
Maryland ( ) is a state in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States. It shares borders with Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia to its south and west; Pennsylvania to its north; and Delaware and the Atlantic Ocean to ...
, he earned his Bachelor of Arts in 1939, his Master of Arts in 1941, and (after a period of service in the Navy) his Ph.D. in 1947, all at
Princeton University
Princeton University is a private university, private research university in Princeton, New Jersey. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial Colleges, fourth-oldest ins ...
. A long-term director of the
Office of Population Research
The Office of Population Research (OPR) at Princeton University is the oldest population research center in the United States. Founded in 1936, the OPR is a leading demographic research and training center. Recent research activity has primarily f ...
at Princeton, Coale was especially influential for his work on the
demographic transition
In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to l ...
and for his leadership of the European Fertility Project.
Early childhood and education
Ansley Coale was the youngest of three children born from Nellie and James Coale. One year after he was born, his family moved to Cleveland, Ohio, where he spent most of his early years receiving an "excellent" education.
The Coale family moved to Annapolis, Maryland, in 1928. Ansley Coale attended a public high school starting in 1930. His intentions were to enroll in
Princeton University
Princeton University is a private university, private research university in Princeton, New Jersey. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial Colleges, fourth-oldest ins ...
like his older brother, Jim, did in 1933. By the time Ansley was 16 years old, he was ready to graduate high school. After an extra year at the
Mercersburg Academy
Mercersburg Academy (formerly Marshall College and Mercersburg College) is an independent selective college-preparatory boarding & day high school in Mercersburg, Pennsylvania in the United States. Founded in 1893, the school enrolls approximat ...
, a preparatory school, he was accepted into Princeton. This extra year of education was not only important for his intellectual development, but he ended up having 18 companions from the academy that also went to Princeton.
After he obtained his Bachelor's of Arts (BA) and master's degree in economics, Ansley Coale was offered a fellowship by the director of the Office of Population Research,
Frank Notestein, as long as demography was a field of study. Over the years, the two of them became well-known demographers.
In 1947, six years after he received his master's degree, Ansley Coale obtained his Ph.D.
Works
In addition to being the William Church Osborne Professor of Public Affairs Emeritus and professor of economics emeritus at
Princeton University
Princeton University is a private university, private research university in Princeton, New Jersey. Founded in 1746 in Elizabeth, New Jersey, Elizabeth as the College of New Jersey, Princeton is the List of Colonial Colleges, fourth-oldest ins ...
, Coale was a prolific author, publishing more than 125 books and articles on a wide variety of demographic topics. His ''Growth and Structure of Human Populations'' (1972) is considered an essential textbook for those interested in formal demography.
He also trained and served as a mentor to many students who would become leaders in the field.
Coale joined the faculty at Princeton in 1947, the same year he received his Ph.D. at the same site. He spent his entire academic career at the University's
Office of Population Research
The Office of Population Research (OPR) at Princeton University is the oldest population research center in the United States. Founded in 1936, the OPR is a leading demographic research and training center. Recent research activity has primarily f ...
, serving as director from 1959 to 1975. He was president of the Population Association of America in 1967–68 and president of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) from 1977 to 1981.
Coale's first major influential work was ''Population Growth and Economic Development in Low-Income Countries'' (1958), which he co-wrote with Edgar Hoover. The results, which showed that slowing
population growth
Population growth is the increase in the number of people in a population or dispersed group. Actual global human population growth amounts to around 83 million annually, or 1.1% per year. The global population has grown from 1 billion in 1800 to ...
could enhance
economic development
In the economics study of the public sector, economic and social development is the process by which the economic well-being and quality of life of a nation, region, local community, or an individual are improved according to targeted goals and o ...
, had a major impact on public policy and set the research agenda in this field.
This study was followed by ''Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations'' (1966), which he co-wrote with Paul Demeny. These model
life table
In actuarial science and demography, a life table (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of deat ...
s both established new empirical regularities and proved invaluable in the development of later techniques for estimating
mortality
Mortality is the state of being mortal, or susceptible to death; the opposite of immortality.
Mortality may also refer to:
* Fish mortality, a parameter used in fisheries population dynamics to account for the loss of fish in a fish stock throug ...
and
fertility
Fertility is the capability to produce offspring through reproduction following the onset of sexual maturity. The fertility rate is the average number of children born by a female during her lifetime and is quantified demographically. Fertili ...
in populations with inaccurate or incomplete data. Along with
William Brass, Coale pioneered the development and use of these techniques, first explained in ''Methods of Estimating Basic Demographic Measures From Incomplete Data'' (1967, with Demeny) and in ''The Demography of Tropical Africa'' (1968, with other demographers).
Perhaps Coale's most major scientific contribution was to the understanding of the
demographic transition
In demography, demographic transition is a phenomenon and theory which refers to the historical shift from high birth rates and high death rates in societies with minimal technology, education (especially of women) and economic development, to l ...
. The Demographic Transition, as stated by Coale, occurs when a country develops a strong economy, and within the society, low fertility and mortality will start to reflect based upon the economic standpoint. Coale was the pioneer of the European Fertility Project, which examined the decline in marital fertility in Europe. The European Fertility Project's goal was to correlate the fertility rates within married couples with the rate of infant mortality. Coale established three pre-conditions to fertility decline. The first is "within the conscious of choice." In other words, it is up to the individual and within their own decision whether or not to have children. The second is that if a society sees not having children as advantageous, then fertility will decline. The third pre-condition is to have contraception methods ready. It is important to emphasize that a society will start to show signs of fertility decline if these three pre-conditions are met.
Initiated in 1963, the project resulted in the publication of nine major books summarizing the change in childbearing over a century in the 700 provinces in Europe. The Project findings eventually led to the conclusion that even though economical factors can play a role in fertility decline, this is not the ''absolute'' determinant of fertility decline. The European Fertility Project led to a better understanding that infant mortality and fertility decline do not necessarily follow each other.
With a long-time interest in the population of Russia, which first found outlet in Coale's work on the
life table
In actuarial science and demography, a life table (also called a mortality table or actuarial table) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before their next birthday ("probability of deat ...
s that he constructed for
Frank Lorimer's classic ''The Population of the Soviet Union'' (1946), Coale also later co-authored a volume on Russia for the European Fertility Project series.
Toward the end of his career, Coale became interested in the population changes in
China
China, officially the People's Republic of China (PRC), is a country in East Asia. It is the world's most populous country, with a population exceeding 1.4 billion, slightly ahead of India. China spans the equivalent of five time zones and ...
and understanding the fertility transition there as well as factors affecting the
sex ratio
The sex ratio (or gender ratio) is usually defined as the ratio of males to females in a population. As explained by Fisher's principle, for evolutionary reasons this is typically about 1:1 in species which reproduce sexually. Many species devia ...
at birth. In a 1986 study he conducted, India and China were compared in both their population size and fertility trends. A survey named the "1/1000 Fertility Survey" reached out to women living in various provinces of China and asked them to relate a brief history of their marital status and a family planning discussion. The survey contributed to an understanding of the population and fertility changes that would occur in China shortly after. Published in a Journal article called ''Population trends in China and India'', Coale introduced the possible causes of differences in fertility trends in such highly populated countries. These reasons are based on policies put in place to reduce birth rates as well as some cultural differences that come into play. Finally, Coale presents the future of both countries and states that despite the efforts to reduce birth rates, the countries will remain the most populated.
Honors
Coale was a member of the
National Academy of Sciences
The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a United States nonprofit, non-governmental organization. NAS is part of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, along with the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) and the Nati ...
, the
American Academy of Arts and Sciences
The American Academy of Arts and Sciences (abbreviation: AAA&S) is one of the oldest learned societies in the United States. It was founded in 1780 during the American Revolution by John Adams, John Hancock, James Bowdoin, Andrew Oliver, and ...
and the
American Philosophical Society
The American Philosophical Society (APS), founded in 1743 in Philadelphia, is a scholarly organization that promotes knowledge in the sciences and humanities through research, professional meetings, publications, library resources, and communit ...
, and was a recipient of several honorary degrees from universities including Princeton, the
University of Pennsylvania
The University of Pennsylvania (also known as Penn or UPenn) is a private research university in Philadelphia. It is the fourth-oldest institution of higher education in the United States and is ranked among the highest-regarded universitie ...
, the
University of Louvain
A university () is an institution of higher (or tertiary) education and research which awards academic degrees in several academic disciplines. Universities typically offer both undergraduate and postgraduate programs. In the United States, the ...
and the
University of Liège
The University of Liège (french: Université de Liège), or ULiège, is a major public university of the French Community of Belgium based in Liège, Wallonia, Belgium. Its official language is French. As of 2020, ULiège is ranked in the 301 ...
. He was also a corresponding fellow of the
British Academy
The British Academy is the United Kingdom's national academy for the humanities and the social sciences.
It was established in 1902 and received its royal charter in the same year. It is now a fellowship of more than 1,000 leading scholars span ...
.
Selected bibliography
*Coale, Ansley J. (1967). “Factors associated with the development of low fertility: An historic summary,” in United Nations, Proceedings of the World Population Conference, Belgrade, 30 August–10 September 1965. Vol. 2. New York: United Nations: 205–9.
*——— (1969). “The decline of fertility in Europe from the French Revolution to World War II,” in S. J. Behrman and Leslie Corsa, Eds. ''Fertility and Family Planning: A World View''. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press: 3–24.
*——— (1971). “Age patterns at marriage.” ''Population Studies'' 25: 193–214.
*——— (1972). ''The Growth and Structure of Human Populations: A Mathematical Investigation''. Princeton, Princeton University Press.
*——— (1978). "Population Growth and Economic Development: The Case of Mexico." ''
Foreign Affairs
''Foreign Affairs'' is an American magazine of international relations and U.S. foreign policy published by the Council on Foreign Relations, a nonprofit, nonpartisan, membership organization and think tank specializing in U.S. foreign policy and ...
'' 56(2): 415-429.
*——— (1984). ''Rapid Population Change in China, 1952-1982''. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.
*——— (1991). "Excess Female Mortality and the Balance of the Sexes in the Population: An Estimate of the Number of "Missing Females," ''
Population and Development Review
''Population and Development Review'' is a quarterly peer-reviewed academic journal published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the Population Council. It was established in 1975 and the journal is co-edited by Raya Muttarak and Joshua Wilde. The j ...
'' 17(3): 517-523.
*——— (1992). “Age of entry into marriage and the date of the initiation of voluntary birth control.” ''Demography'' 29: 333–41.
*——— (1996). "Age Patterns and Time Sequence of Mortality in National Populations with the Highest Expectation of Life at Birth." ''Population and Development Review'' 22.
*——— (1996). "Five Decades of Missing Females in China," ''Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society'' 140 (4): 421-450.
*Coale, Ansley J., Barbara A. Anderson, and Erna Härm (1979). ''Human Fertility in Russia since the Nineteenth Century''. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
*Coale, Ansley J., and Paul Demeny (1966). ''Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations''. New York: Academic Press.
*Coale, Ansley J., and Edgar M. Hoover (1958). ''Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries''. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
*
*Coale, Ansley J., and Roy Treadway (1986). “A summary of the changing distribution of overall fertility, marital fertility, and the proportion married in the provinces of Europe,” in Ansley J. Coale and Susan Cotts Watkins, Eds. ''The Decline of Fertility in Europe''. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press: 31–181.
*
*——— (1975). “A new method of estimating standard fertility measures from incomplete data.” ''Population Index'' 41: 182–210.
*——— (1978). “Finding the two parameters that specify a model schedule of marital fertility rates.” ''Population Index'' 44: 203–13.
*Coale, Ansley J., and Susan Cotts Watkins, Eds. (1986). ''The Decline of Fertility in Europe''. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
*Coale, Ansley J., and Melvin Zelnik (1963). ''New Estimates of Fertility and Population in the United States: A Study of Annual White Births from 1855 to 1960 and of Completeness of Enumeration in the Censuses from 1880 to 1960''. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
*
*——— (1990). "Age patterns of mortality for older women: an analysis using age-specific rate of mortality change with age." ''Mathematical Population Studies'' 2(4): 245-267.
*
*Trussell, James, Ansley J. Coale, Paul Demeny, and Geoffrey McNicoll (Eds.). 2003. ''The Encyclopedia of Population.'' New York, Macmillan Reference USA, Vol. 1, 132-313.
References
External links
Ansley J. Coale Papers at the Seeley G. Mudd Manuscript Library, Princeton UniversityNational Academy of Sciences Biographical Memoir
{{DEFAULTSORT:Coale, Ansley J.
1917 births
2002 deaths
American demographers
20th-century American economists
Princeton University alumni
Princeton University faculty
Fellows of the American Statistical Association
Members of the United States National Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Fellows of the British Academy
United States Navy personnel of World War II