The 2018 Ontario general election was held on June 7, 2018, to elect the 124 members of the

42nd Parliament of Ontario The 42nd Legislative Assembly of Ontario was a legislature of the province of Ontario, Canada. The membership was set by the 2018 Ontario general election and sat for two sessions until it was dissolved on May 3, 2022 in advance of the 2022 Onta ...

. The

Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario The Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario (french: Parti progressiste-conservateur de l'Ontario), often shortened to the Ontario PC Party or simply the PCs, colloquially known as the Tories, is a centre-right political party in Ontario, Canada ...

, led by

Doug Ford Douglas Robert Ford Jr. (born November 20, 1964) is a Canadian politician and businessman who has served as the 26th and current premier of Ontario since June 2018 and leader of the Progressive Conservative (PC) Party since March 2018. He ...

, won 76 of the 124 seats in the legislature and formed a majority government. The

Ontario New Democratic Party The Ontario New Democratic Party (french: link=no, Nouveau Parti démocratique de l'Ontario; abbr. ONDP or NDP) is a social-democratic political party in Ontario, Canada. The party currently forms the Official Opposition in Ontario following th ...

, led by

Andrea Horwath Andrea Horwath (; born October 24, 1962) is a Canadian politician who has been the 58th mayor of Hamilton since 2022. Horwath previously served as the member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) for Hamilton Centre from 2004 to 2022, as leader of t ...

, formed the Official Opposition. The

Ontario Liberal Party The Ontario Liberal Party (OLP; french: Parti libéral de l'Ontario, PLO) is a political party in the province of Ontario, Canada. The party has been led by interim leader John Fraser since August 2022. The party espouses the principles of li ...

, led by incumbent Premier

Kathleen Wynne Kathleen O'Day Wynne ( ; born May 21, 1953) is a Canadian former politician who served as the 25th premier of Ontario and leader of the Ontario Liberal Party from 2013 to 2018. She was elected to the Legislative Assembly in 2003 and sat as the ...

, lost

official party status Official party status refers to the Westminster practice which is officially used in the Parliament of Canada and the provincial legislatures of recognizing parliamentary caucuses of political parties. In official documents, this is sometimes re ...

in recording both the worst result in the party's 161-year history and the worst result for any incumbent governing party in

Ontario Ontario ( ; ) is one of the thirteen provinces and territories of Canada.Ontario is located in the geographic eastern half of Canada, but it has historically and politically been considered to be part of Central Canada. Located in Central Ca ...

. The

Green Party of Ontario The Green Party of Ontario (GPO; french: Parti vert de l'Ontario) is a political party in Ontario, Canada. The party is led by Mike Schreiner. In 2018, Schreiner was elected as the party's first member of the Ontario Legislative Assembly. In t ...

won a seat for the first time in their history, while the

Trillium Party of Ontario The Trillium Party of Ontario (french: Parti Trillium de l’Ontario) was a right-wing populist, social conservative political party in the Canadian province of Ontario. Founded in 2014, the party was led by Bob Yaciuk for the duration of its exi ...

lost its single seat gained by a

floor-crossing In parliamentary systems, politicians are said to cross the floor if they formally change their political affiliation to a different political party than which they were initially elected under (as is the case in Canada and the United Kingdom). ...

during the 41st Parliament.

Background

Redistribution of seats

The ''Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015'' increased the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in

Northern Ontario Northern Ontario is a primary geographic and quasi-administrative region of the Canadian province of Ontario, the other primary region being Southern Ontario. Most of the core geographic region is located on part of the Superior Geological Pro ...

set out in the 1996 redistribution. The Far North Electoral Boundaries Commission, appointed in 2016, recommended the creation of the additional districts of

Kiiwetinoong Kiiwetinoong () is a provincial electoral district (riding) in Ontario, Canada which elects one member to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This riding was created prior to the 42nd Ontario general election from the northern portion of Kenora� ...

and

Mushkegowuk—James Bay Mushkegowuk—James Bay (french: Mushkegowuk—Baie James) is a provincial electoral district in Ontario, Canada. It elects one member to the Legislative Assembly of Ontario. This riding was created from the northern portion of Timmins—James Ba ...

, carved out from the existing Kenora—Rainy River and

Timmins—James Bay Timmins—James Bay (french: Timmins—Baie James) is a federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1997. Its population in 2011 was 83,104. The district includes the extreme ...

ridings, which accordingly raised the total number of seats to 124. This was implemented through the ''Representation Statute Law Amendment Act, 2017''. The new districts have been criticized as undemocratic, as they have a population of around 30,000 people compared with over 120,000 people in some southern Ontario constituencies. ''

National Post The ''National Post'' is a Canadian English-language broadsheet newspaper available in several cities in central and western Canada. The paper is the flagship publication of Postmedia Network and is published Mondays through Saturdays, with ...

'' columnist Josh Dehaas suggested that the small population sizes of the ridings might violate the

Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms The ''Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms'' (french: Charte canadienne des droits et libertés), often simply referred to as the ''Charter'' in Canada, is a bill of rights entrenched in the Constitution of Canada, forming the first part o ...

. In September 2017, a research firm analyzed the impact of redistribution if the boundaries had been in effect for the previous election.

Change of fixed election date

Under legislation passed in 2005, Ontario elections were to be held on "the first Thursday in October in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", subject to the

Lieutenant-Governor of Ontario The lieutenant governor of Ontario (, in French: ''Lieutenant-gouverneur'' (if male) or ''Lieutenante-gouverneure'' (if female) ''de l'Ontario'') is the viceregal representative in Ontario of the , who operates distinctly within the province but ...

's power to call an election earlier. As the current government had a

majority A majority, also called a simple majority or absolute majority to distinguish it from #Related terms, related terms, is more than half of the total.Dictionary definitions of ''majority'' aMerriam-Webster non-confidence motion A motion of no confidence, also variously called a vote of no confidence, no-confidence motion, motion of confidence, or vote of confidence, is a statement or vote about whether a person in a position of responsibility like in government or ma ...

was not a likely option for calling an early election, though Premier

stated in June 2015 that she would likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in spring 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days. To put this on a statutory footing, in October 2016 Attorney General of Ontario

Yasir Naqvi Yasir Abbas Naqvi (born January 25, 1973) is a Canadian politician who has served as the member of Parliament (MP) for Ottawa Centre since the 2021 federal election, sitting as a Liberal. Prior to his election to the House of Commons, Naqvi wa ...

introduced a bill in the Legislative Assembly which, in part, included moving the election date to "the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election", and it came into effect in December 2016.

Prelude to campaign

The

attempted to win their fifth consecutive general election, dating back to 2003. The

won their first election since 1999, and the

attempted to win their second election (having previously won in

1990 File:1990 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The 1990 FIFA World Cup is played in Italy; The Human Genome Project is launched; Voyager I takes the famous Pale Blue Dot image- speaking on the fragility of Humankind, humanity on Earth, Astroph ...

). Numerous other extra-parliamentary political parties also vied for votes. The Liberals under

headed into the 2018 campaign trailing far behind the Progressive Conservatives, led by former

Toronto City Council Toronto City Council is the governing body of the municipal government of Toronto, Ontario. Meeting at Toronto City Hall, it comprises 25 city councillors and the mayor of Toronto. The current term began on November 15, 2022. Structure The cur ...

lor

. The Liberals' standing with voters had been badly hurt when they partially privatized Hydro One in 2015, after campaigning against it in the 2014 election, as well as rising criticism over "ballooning provincial debt, high electricity prices and costly, politically expedient decisions". In early April, the CBC published their analysis of aggregate polls showing that Ford and the Progressive Conservatives were ahead of the other parties averaging 42.1% support, compared to 27.2% for the governing Liberals, 23.4% for the NDP and 5.7% for the Greens and with 11 Liberal MPPs announcing they would not be running for re-election or having already resigned their seats in the months leading up to the election. According to Wynne, voters were offered a "stark choice", between "cutting and removing supports from people" with "billions in cuts", which she alleged the Progressive Conservatives would do if they won the election, and expanding investments in social programs such as

prescription drug A prescription drug (also prescription medication or prescription medicine) is a pharmaceutical drug that legally requires a medical prescription to be dispensed. In contrast, over-the-counter drugs can be obtained without a prescription. The rea ...

s and

childcare Child care, otherwise known as day care, is the care and supervision of a child or multiple children at a time, whose ages range from two weeks of age to 18 years. Although most parents spend a significant amount of time caring for their child(r ...

, which the Liberal platform promised. In March 2018, the Liberals tabled a pre-election budget in the provincial legislature which promised billions of dollars in new spending for free childcare and expanded coverage for dental care but replaced the government's previous balanced budget with a $6.7 billion deficit projected to last until 2024–2025. PC leader Doug Ford called the budget a "spending spree".

Mood of the voters

According to ''

Toronto Star The ''Toronto Star'' is a Canadian English-language broadsheet daily newspaper. The newspaper is the country's largest daily newspaper by circulation. It is owned by Toronto Star Newspapers Limited, a subsidiary of Torstar Corporation and part ...

'' columnist Susan Delacourt, voters were motivated by a desire for changesuch desire being more driven by emotion than by ideologyand one researcher estimated that more than half of the electorate was undecided in who they were likely to vote for. The ''

Huffington Post ''HuffPost'' (formerly ''The Huffington Post'' until 2017 and sometimes abbreviated ''HuffPo'') is an American progressive news website, with localized and international editions. The site offers news, satire, blogs, and original content, and ...

'' reported that half of voters were basing their vote intentions on how best to block the party they oppose. In February 2018, Campaign Research conducted a

gap analysis In management literature, gap analysis involves the comparison of actual performance with potential or desired performance. If an organization does not make the best use of current resources, or forgoes investment in capital or technology, it ...

on voter intentions in Ontario, and determined the following:

Events leading up to the election (2014–2018)

Campaign period

Issues

Party slogans

Endorsements

Candidates

Candidate nominations

In February 2018, the PC leadership overturned the nomination of candidates Karma Macgregor in

Ottawa West—Nepean Ottawa West—Nepean (french: Ottawa-Ouest—Nepean) is a federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1997. Geography The district includes the neighbourhoods of Shirleys ...

and Thenusha Parani in Scarborough Centre because of irregularities and allegations of ballot stuffing at their nomination meetings. Both candidates denied these claims. The nomination meetings were reorganized, and both candidates lost the nomination at those meetings. However, the PC leadership decided not to overturn the nomination meeting's result in Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas, where a similar situation took place, because of an ongoing police investigation on this situation. In March 2018, the NDP nominated Lyra Evans as their candidate in

Ottawa—Vanier Ottawa—Vanier (formerly known as Ottawa East) is a federal electoral district in Ontario, Canada, that has been represented in the House of Commons of Canada since 1935. Previous to that date, it was part of the Ottawa electoral district ...

. Evans was the first openly

transgender A transgender (often abbreviated as trans) person is someone whose gender identity or gender expression does not correspond with their sex assigned at birth. Many transgender people experience dysphoria, which they seek to alleviate through tr ...

candidate nominated by a major party to run in an Ontario general election.

Incumbents not running for reelection

Results

Elections Ontario Elections Ontario (french: Élections Ontario) is an independent office of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario responsible for the administration of provincial elections and referendums. It is charged with the implementation and enforcement of th ...

used electronic vote tabulator machines from

Dominion Voting Systems Dominion Voting Systems Corporation is a company that sells electronic voting hardware and software, including voting machines and tabulators, in the United States and Canada. The company's headquarters are in Toronto, Ontario, and Denver, Colo ...

for counting the ballots. Tabulators were deployed at 50 per cent of polling stations at a cost of . This election was the first time Ontario used vote counting machines for a provincial election, although tabulators have been used in Ontario civic elections for more than 20 years, and also in a 2016

by-election A by-election, also known as a special election in the United States and the Philippines, a bye-election in Ireland, a bypoll in India, or a Zimni election (Urdu: ضمنی انتخاب, supplementary election) in Pakistan, is an election used to f ...

in Whitby-Oshawa. The original paper ballots marked by voters will be kept for a year along with the digital scans of each ballot by the tabulator. Ontario_general_election_2018_-_PC_Party_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the Progressive Conservatives by riding. Ontario_general_election_2018_-_NDP_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the NDP by riding. File:Ontario_general_election_2018_-_Liberal_Party_Vote_Strength_by_Riding.svg, The percentage of votes cast for the Liberals by riding. Ontario PC Party Vote Swing in the 2018 Ontario Election.png, Change in Progressive Conservative vote share by riding compared to the 2014 Ontario election. File:Voter Distribution By Party.png, Each dot represents five-thousand votes for the party of the associated colour. Data is based on individual riding results. Dots are placed at random positions within the ridings that they belong to. File:Ontario 2018.png, A

cartogram A cartogram (also called a value-area map or an anamorphic map, the latter common among German-speakers) is a thematic map of a set of features (countries, provinces, etc.), in which their geographic size is altered to be directly proportiona ...

showing popular vote in each riding. File:Gallagher 2018Ontario.svg, The disproportionality of elections to the Legislative Assembly in the 2018 election was 17.96 according to the Gallagher Index, significantly in favour of the PCs.

Synopsis of results

Detailed results

. , - ! colspan=2 rowspan=2 , Political party ! rowspan=2 , Party leader ! colspan=5 , MPPs ! colspan=3 , Votes , - ! Candidates ! 2014 ! Dissol. !2018 !± !# !% ! ± (pp) , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 28 , 27 , 76 , 48 , 2,326,523 , 40.19% , 9.08 , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 21 , 18 , 40 , 19 , 1,929,966 , 33.34% , 9.68 , style="text-align:left;",

, 124 , 58 , 55 , 7 , 51 , 1,124,346 , 19.42% , 19.10 , style="text-align:left;",

Mike Schreiner Mike Schreiner ( ; born 9 June 1969) is a Canadian politician who has served as the leader of the Green Party of Ontario since 2009. Schreiner sits as a member of Provincial Parliament (MPP), representing Guelph; his 2018 election made him th ...

, 124 , – , – , 1 , 1 , 264,519 , 4.57% , 0.31 , style="text-align:left;", Allen Small , 117 , – , – , – , – , 42,822 , 0.74% , 0.04 , style="text-align:left;", Greg Vezina , 42 , – , – , – , – , 16,146 , 0.28% , 0.20 , colspan="2" style="text-align:left;", Independents and no affiliation , 32 , – , 2 , – , – , 8,226 , 0.14% , 0.06 , style="text-align:left;", Bob Yaciuk , 26 , – , 1 , – , – , 8,091 , 0.14% , 0.13 , style="text-align:left;", Trevor Holliday , 10 , – , – , – , – , 5,912 , 0.10% , 0.08 , style="text-align:left;", Brad Harness , 10 , – , – , – , – , 2,682 , 0.05% , , style="text-align:left;", Paul McKeever , 14 , – , – , – , – , 2,565 , 0.04% , 0.20 , style="text-align:left;", Jason Tysick , 5 , – , – , – , – , 2,316 , 0.04% , , style="text-align:left;", Yuri Duboisky , 16 , – , – , – , – , 2,199 , 0.04% , 0.03 , style="text-align:left;", Dave McKee , 12 , – , – , – , – , 1,471 , 0.03% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", Bahman Yazdanfar , 5 , – , – , – , – , 1,239 , 0.02% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", Queenie Yu , 3 , – , – , – , – , 1,078 , 0.02% , , style="text-align:left;", Joshua E. Eriksen , 3 , – , – , – , – , 802 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Daryl Christoff , 3 , – , – , – , – , 634 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Hilton Milan , 5 , – , – , – , – , 631 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Kevin Clarke , 6 , – , – , – , – , 628 , 0.01% , 0.01 , style="text-align:left;", ''vacant'' , 2 , – , – , – , – , 386 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Ken Ranney , 2 , – , – , – , – , 340 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Patrick Knight , 2 , – , – , – , – , 321 , 0.01% , , style="text-align:left;", Paul Figueiras , 2 , – , – , – , – , 256 , – , 0.02 , style="text-align:left;", Arthur Smitherman , 3 , – , – , – , – , 215 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Wasyl Luczkiw , 2 , – , – , – , – , 191 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Derrick Matthews , 2 , – , – , – , – , 176 , – , , style="text-align:left;",

John Turmel John C. Turmel (born February 22, 1951) is a perennial candidate for election in Canada, and according to the ''Guinness World Records'' holds the records for the most elections contested and for the most elections lost, having contested 105 el ...

, 2 , – , – , – , – , 112 , – , , style="text-align:left;", Abu Alam , 2 , – , – , – , – , 67 , – , , style="text-align:left;" colspan="4", Vacant , 4 , colspan="5", , - , colspan="8" style="text-align:left;", Blank and invalid ballots , align="right", 61,426 , align="right", 1.06 , align="right", , -style="background:#E9E9E9;" , colspan="3" style="text-align:left;", Total , 825 , 107 , 107 , 124 , , 5,806,286 , 100.00% , , -style="background:#E9E9E9;" , colspan="8" style="text-align:left;", Registered voters / turnout , 10,246,066 , 56.67% , 5.38

Summary analysis

Regional analysis

Most marginal 2-way and 3-way contests

Significant results among independent and minor party candidates

Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:

Opinion polls

Campaign period

Opinion polling during the 2018 Ontario provincial election campaign

Best Premier and Party Leader Approval Ratings

Major Regional Polls – Toronto

Pre-campaign period

References

External links

Elections Ontario
{{Ontario elections Ontario 42nd 2018 in Ontario 2018 June 2018 events in Canada