2022 Kenyan general election

General elections are scheduled to be held in Kenya on 9 August 2022. Voters will elect the President, members of the National Assembly and Senate, county governors and members of the 47 county assemblies.

Background

The Constitution of Kenya requires that a general election of members of parliament to be held on the second Tuesday in August in every fifth year, which means that the next general election is scheduled for 9 August 2022. If Kenya is at war, the election can be delayed if a resolution is passed in each House of Parliament by at least two-thirds of all the members of the House. Such a resolution can delay the election by up to six months, and may be passed multiple times provided that the delays do not cumulatively exceed 12 months.

The Constitution requires that a presidential election take place at the same time as the general election. In the unlikely event that prior to the next general election the position of president falls vacant and the office of deputy president is also vacant (who otherwise would assume the office of president), a presidential election could be held at an earlier date. According to the Constitution in such circumstances, an election needs to be held within sixty days after the vacancy arose in the office of President.

Incumbent president Uhuru Kenyatta is ineligible to pursue a third term due to the two-term limit in the Constitution of Kenya.

In April, Marsabit County and surrounding areas the centre of the 2022 drought in East Africa, with half a million people on the brink of a hunger crisis. The Kenyan Government under Uhuru Kenyatta has been critiqued for its slow and ineffective response.

Electoral system

The President of Kenya is elected using a modified version of the two-round system: to win in the first round, a candidate must receive over 50% of the vote and at least 25% of the vote in a minimum of 24 of the 47 counties.

The Parliament of Kenya consists of two houses: the Senate (upper house) and the National Assembly (lower house). The 337 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods; 290 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. The remaining 47 are reserved for women and are elected from single-member constituencies based on the 47 counties, also using the first-past-the-post system. The 67 members of the Senate are elected by four methods; 47 are elected in single-member constituencies based on the counties by first-past-the-post voting. Parties are then assigned a share of 16 seats for women, two for youth and two for disabled people based on their seat share.

Members of the county assemblies are elected from 1,450 electoral wards.

Presidential candidates

As of 6 June 2022, only four candidates and their running mates had been cleared. Walter Mong'are's nomination to run for presidency was revoked, after it emerged his degree was not from a recognized university as required by law. The final list of presidential candidates are;
* David Waihiga Mwaure, leader of Agano Party
* George Wajackoyah, leader of Roots Party of Kenya
* Raila Odinga, former Prime Minister of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Orange Democratic Movement
* William Ruto, current Deputy President of Kenya (2013–present) and leader of United Democratic Alliance

Independent candidates

On 2 May 2022, the full list of 47 independent candidates was submitted to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

On 13 May 2022, the IEBC released the names of the 38 contenders who had been accepted. The commission stated that the candidates had to submit their symbols for ease of identification by voters on polling day.

Declined

The following individuals declined to run as presidential candidates and endorsed Raila Odinga:

* Kalonzo Musyoka, former Vice President of Kenya (2008–2013) and leader of Wiper
* Mukhisa Kituyi, former Secretary-General (2013–2021) United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

The following individuals declined to run as presidential candidates and endorsed William Ruto:

* Musalia Mudavadi, former Vice President of Kenya (2002–2003) and leader of Amani National Congress
* Moses Kuria, leader of Chama Cha Kazi
* William Kabogo, leader of Tujibebe Wakenya
* Moses Wetangula, leader of FORD–Kenya

Campaign

A new political dynamic based on class politics is emerging in Kenya, which is being framed as hustlers versus dynasties. The families of incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta and former opposition leader Raila Odinga have dominated Kenyan politics since independence in 1963. Moreover, Kenya has traditionally been ruled by presidents who belong to either the Kikuyu people – like Kenyatta – or the Kalenjin people, like incumbent vice-president William Ruto. The potential victory of Odinga, a Luo, would mark a departure for the country, which has 44 ethnic groups.

William Ruto initially fought alongside Odinga in 2007, when police crackdowns on protesters and clashes that turned into ethnic attacks killed more than 1,000 people in post-election violence, eventually prompting a new constitution to devolve power. Ruto teamed up with Kenyatta in 2013. Both Kenyatta and Ruto had been indicted by the International Criminal Court on crimes against humanity charges for their alleged role in orchestrating the post-election violence. The cases later collapsed, with former ICC chief prosecutor Fatou Bensouda saying a relentless campaign of victim and witness intimidation made a trial impossible.

In 2018, President Uhuru Kenyatta and his former rival for Presidency, Raila Odinga, stunned the public when they shook hands and declared a truce after post-election violence in 2017 left dozens of people dead. The two leaders also sought to expand the executive through the '' Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) constitutional changes'' that would have potentially allowed Kenyatta to stay in power as a prime minister. But despite Kenya’s top court ruling against the proposed amendments in August, the unexpected alliance has persevered with Odinga attending official government functions with Kenyatta.

In December 2021 the ''Mount Kenya Foundation'', one of the country’s most powerful and wealthy Kikuyu lobbies, announced their support for Odinga, while Kenyatta has repeatedly said that the next president will be “neither Kikuyu nor Kalenjin”. On 10 December 2021, Odinga declared his intention to run for the presidency for the fifth time.

In January 2022 Ruto's United Democratic Alliance announced a coalition pact with the Amani National Congress of Musalia Mudavadi, FORD–Kenya of Moses Wetangula and several other political parties. The new coalition was called Kenya Kwanza.

In February 2022 Kenyatta’s Jubilee party announced that it would join the ''Azimio la Umoja'' coalition headed by Odinga, the party leader of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). On 12 March 2022, at least 26 political parties, including the major political parties Wiper, Jubilee, ODM and KANU, signed a co-operation pact, endorsing Raila Odinga’s presidential candidature. That same day, Kenyatta publicly endorsed Odinga for the presidency.

On 15 March 2022 the UDA and Kenya Kwanza endorsed Ruto as their presidential candidate for August 2022 general elections.

On 1 April 2022, a group of youths pelted stones at Odinga's chopper, damaging the screen. A group of rowdy youths heckled his rally in Iten, denying him an opportunity to sell his manifesto to residents. William Ruto condemned the attack on the same day, stating that every politician has the right to sell their agenda in every part of the country.

On 15 May 2022 Kenya Kwanza endorsed Rigathi Gachagua as Ruto's running mate.

On 16 May 2022 Azimio La Umoja Coalition endorsed Martha Karua as Raila's running mate.

Opinion polls

President

This table below lists polls completed since the announcement of Raila Odinga on 10 December 2021 that he would be contesting the presidency.

Aggregate Polling

Notes

References

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Presidential elections in Kenya
Elections in Kenya
Kenya
General
Next election
August 2022 events in Africa