The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the

2020 United States presidential election The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020. The Democratic ticket of former vice president Joe Biden and the junior U.S. senator from California Kamala Ha ...

in which all 50 states plus the

District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...

participated.

Iowa Iowa () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States, bordered by the Mississippi River to the east and the Missouri River and Big Sioux River to the west. It is bordered by six states: Wisconsin to the northeast, Illinois to the ...

voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the

Republican Party Republican Party is a name used by many political parties around the world, though the term most commonly refers to the United States' Republican Party. Republican Party may also refer to: Africa *Republican Party (Liberia) * Republican Part ...

's nominee, incumbent President

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...

of Florida, and running mate Vice President

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 50th ...

Indiana Indiana () is a U.S. state in the Midwestern United States. It is the 38th-largest by area and the 17th-most populous of the 50 States. Its capital and largest city is Indianapolis. Indiana was admitted to the United States as the 19th s ...

against

Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to: *Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to: Active parties Africa *Botswana Democratic Party *Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea *Gabonese Democratic Party *Demo ...

nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of

Delaware Delaware ( ) is a state in the Mid-Atlantic region of the United States, bordering Maryland to its south and west; Pennsylvania to its north; and New Jersey and the Atlantic Ocean to its east. The state takes its name from the adjacent Del ...

, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College. Trump won the state 53.1% to 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in

Ohio Ohio () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States. Of the fifty U.S. states, it is the 34th-largest by area, and with a population of nearly 11.8 million, is the seventh-most populous and tenth-most densely populated. The sta ...

, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a

Midwestern The Midwestern United States, also referred to as the Midwest or the American Midwest, is one of four census regions of the United States Census Bureau (also known as "Region 2"). It occupies the northern central part of the United States. I ...

swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring

Missouri Missouri is a U.S. state, state in the Midwestern United States, Midwestern region of the United States. Ranking List of U.S. states and territories by area, 21st in land area, it is bordered by eight states (tied for the most with Tennessee ...

starting in

2008 File:2008 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Lehman Brothers went bankrupt following the Subprime mortgage crisis; Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 in Myanmar; A scene from the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing; ...

. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, with the exception being

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

's narrow plurality win in

2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...

. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of

West Virginia West Virginia is a state in the Appalachian, Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern regions of the United States.The Census Bureau and the Association of American Geographers classify West Virginia as part of the Southern United States while the Bur ...

2000 File:2000 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Protests against Bush v. Gore after the 2000 United States presidential election; Heads of state meet for the Millennium Summit; The International Space Station in its infant form as seen from ...

and

. Even though Biden contested the state, Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.2% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, meaning that the state voted even further to the right of the national average than it did in 2016. Biden became the first Democratic nominee since

Jimmy Carter James Earl Carter Jr. (born October 1, 1924) is an American politician who served as the 39th president of the United States from 1977 to 1981. A member of the Democratic Party (United States), Democratic Party, he previously served as th ...

1976 Events January * January 3 – The International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights enters into force. * January 5 – The Pol Pot regime proclaims a new constitution for Democratic Kampuchea. * January 11 – The 1976 Phila ...

to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since

1916 Events Below, the events of the First World War have the "WWI" prefix. January * January 1 – The British Royal Army Medical Corps carries out the first successful blood transfusion, using blood that had been stored and cooled. * ...

to win without carrying

Wapello County Wapello County is a county located in the U.S. state of Iowa. As of the 2020 census, the population was 35,437. The county seat is Ottumwa. The county was formed on February 17, 1843, and named for Wapello, a Meskwaki chief. Wapello County ...

, as well as the first since

FDR Franklin Delano Roosevelt (; ; January 30, 1882April 12, 1945), often referred to by his initials FDR, was an American politician and attorney who served as the 32nd president of the United States from 1933 until his death in 1945. As the ...

1940 A calendar from 1940 according to the Gregorian calendar, factoring in the dates of Easter and related holidays, cannot be used again until the year 5280. Events Below, the events of World War II have the "WWII" prefix. January *January ...

to win the presidency without carrying

Dubuque County Dubuque County is a county located in the U.S. state of Iowa. As of the 2020 census, the population was 99,266, making it the eighth-most populous county in Iowa. The county seat is Dubuque. The county is named for Julien Dubuque, the first Eur ...

and Howard County. Biden improved on

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...

's margins in the

Des Moines Des Moines () is the capital and the most populous city in the U.S. state of Iowa. It is also the county seat of Polk County. A small part of the city extends into Warren County. It was incorporated on September 22, 1851, as Fort Des Moines, ...

and

Cedar Rapids Cedar Rapids () is the second-largest city in Iowa, United States and is the county seat of Linn County. The city lies on both banks of the Cedar River, north of Iowa City and northeast of Des Moines, the state's capital and largest city. ...

metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter of which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (

Omaha Omaha ( ) is the largest city in the U.S. state of Nebraska and the county seat of Douglas County. Omaha is in the Midwestern United States on the Missouri River, about north of the mouth of the Platte River. The nation's 39th-largest city ...

urban area), an electoral vote Trump won in

2016 File:2016 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: Bombed-out buildings in Ankara following the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt; the impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff; Damaged houses during the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh ...

but lost in

2020 2020 was heavily defined by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to global Social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, social and Economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic disruption, mass cancellations and postponements of events, COVID- ...

. Trump improved on his

performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back to back elections since

Ronald Reagan Ronald Wilson Reagan ( ; February 6, 1911June 5, 2004) was an American politician, actor, and union leader who served as the 40th president of the United States from 1981 to 1989. He also served as the 33rd governor of California from 1967 ...

1980 Events January * January 4 – U.S. President Jimmy Carter proclaims a grain embargo against the USSR with the support of the European Commission. * January 6 – Global Positioning System time epoch begins at 00:00 UTC. * January 9 – ...

and

1984 Events January * January 1 – The Bornean Sultanate of Brunei gains full independence from the United Kingdom, having become a British protectorate in 1888. * January 7 – Brunei becomes the sixth member of the Association of Southeast A ...

. Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for

Barack Obama Barack Hussein Obama II ( ; born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Obama was the first African-American president of the U ...

and Trump, the other two being

and

Florida Florida is a state located in the Southeastern region of the United States. Florida is bordered to the west by the Gulf of Mexico, to the northwest by Alabama, to the north by Georgia, to the east by the Bahamas and Atlantic Ocean, and to ...

. This was the first time since

that Iowa backed the losing candidate in a presidential election, and the first since 1988 that it voted for the loser of both the popular and electoral vote. It is also the first time since

that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring

Wisconsin Wisconsin () is a state in the upper Midwestern United States. Wisconsin is the 25th-largest state by total area and the 20th-most populous. It is bordered by Minnesota to the west, Iowa to the southwest, Illinois to the south, Lake M ...

. Trump became the first Republican candidate as well as the second ever incumbent president to carry Iowa and lose the presidency since

Gerald Ford Gerald Rudolph Ford Jr. ( ; born Leslie Lynch King Jr.; July 14, 1913December 26, 2006) was an American politician who served as the 38th president of the United States from 1974 to 1977. He was the only president never to have been elected ...

in 1976 as well as the only presidential incumbent to carry the state twice and lose re-election since Benjamin Harrison.

Caucuses

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.

Republican caucuses

Incumbent president

received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.

Democratic caucuses

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that

Pete Buttigieg Peter Paul Montgomery Buttigieg ( ; ; Sometimes pronounced or , but not by Buttigieg himself. born January 19, 1982) is an American politician and former military officer who is currently serving as the United States secretary of transp ...

had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent.

Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician who has served as the junior United States senator from Vermont since 2007. He was the U.S. representative for the state's at-large congressional district from 1991 to 2007 ...

came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent).

Elizabeth Warren Elizabeth Ann Warren ( née Herring; born June 22, 1949) is an American politician and former law professor who is the senior United States senator from Massachusetts, serving since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party and regarded as a ...

, Joe Biden, and

Amy Klobuchar Amy Jean Klobuchar ( ; born May 25, 1960) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the senior United States senator from Minnesota, a seat she has held since 2007. A member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party (DFL), Minne ...

finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.

Libertarian caucuses

The

Libertarian Party of Iowa The Libertarian Party of Iowa is the Iowa affiliate of the Libertarian Party. It gained major party status in 2017, following Gary Johnson's performance in the 2016 presidential election in Iowa. , there are 11,300 registered Libertarians in the ...

conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.

General election

Final predictions

Polling

Graphical summary Aggregate polls Polls Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Results

Results by county

Results by congressional district

Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

Analysis

Per

exit polling An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for n ...

by the

Associated Press The Associated Press (AP) is an American non-profit news agency headquartered in New York City. Founded in 1846, it operates as a cooperative, unincorporated association. It produces news reports that are distributed to its members, U.S. newspa ...

, Trump's strength in Iowa came from

White White is the lightest color and is achromatic (having no hue). It is the color of objects such as snow, chalk, and milk, and is the opposite of black. White objects fully reflect and scatter all the visible wavelengths of light. White on ...

Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst

Christian Christians () are people who follow or adhere to Christianity, a monotheistic Abrahamic religion based on the life and teachings of Jesus Christ. The words ''Christ'' and ''Christian'' derive from the Koine Greek title ''Christós'' (Χρι ...

voters, garnering 66% of

Protestants Protestantism is a branch of Christianity that follows the theological tenets of the Protestant Reformation, a movement that began seeking to reform the Catholic Church from within in the 16th century against what its followers perceived to b ...

, 54% of

Catholics The Catholic Church, also known as the Roman Catholic Church, is the largest Christian church, with 1.3 billion baptized Catholics worldwide . It is among the world's oldest and largest international institutions, and has played a ...

, and 76% of born-again/

Evangelical Evangelicalism (), also called evangelical Christianity or evangelical Protestantism, is a worldwide Interdenominationalism, interdenominational movement within Protestantism, Protestant Christianity that affirms the centrality of being "bor ...

Christians Christians () are people who follow or adhere to Christianity, a monotheistic Abrahamic religion based on the life and teachings of Jesus Christ. The words ''Christ'' and ''Christian'' derive from the Koine Greek title ''Christós'' (Χρι ...

. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle

international trade International trade is the exchange of capital, goods, and services across international borders or territories because there is a need or want of goods or services. (see: World economy) In most countries, such trade represents a significant ...

. Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in the Hawkeye State. During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state. However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from

Senator A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the el ...

Joni Ernst Joni Kay Ernst (née Culver; born July 1, 1970) is an American former military officer and politician serving as the Seniority in the United States Senate, junior United States Senate, United States senator from Iowa since 2015. A member of the ...

to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by

Dave Loebsack David Wayne Loebsack (; born December 23, 1952) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for from 2007 to 2021. A member of the Democratic Party, he also is an ''emeritus'' professor of political science at Cornell College, ...

in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election. Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping

Dallas County Dallas County may refer to: Places in the USA: * Dallas County, Alabama, founded in 1818, the first county in the United States by that name * Dallas County, Arkansas * Dallas County, Iowa * Dallas County, Missouri * Dallas County, Texas, the nint ...

, a suburb of

. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.

Notes

;Partisan clients

References

External links

* (state affiliate of the U.S.

League of Women Voters The League of Women Voters (LWV or the League) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan political organization in the United States. Founded in 1920, its ongoing major activities include registering voters, providing voter information, and advocating for vot ...

) * * {{State results of the 2020 U.S. presidential election

Presidential President most commonly refers to: *President (corporate title) *President (education), a leader of a college or university * President (government title) President may also refer to: Automobiles * Nissan President, a 1966–2010 Japanese fu ...