2012 United States presidential election in Iowa

The 2012 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Iowa voters chose six electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan.

Obama won Iowa with 51.99% of the vote to Romney's 46.18%, a Democratic victory margin of 5.81% - a markedly closer result than in 2008, when the Democrats won Iowa with a margin of 9.54%. Romney picked up wins in 16 counties that Obama had won in 2008, most of which were in the western half of the state, while only one county ( Woodbury) flipped in the opposite direction.

As of 2020, this remains the last time that a Democratic presidential nominee has carried Iowa. In fact, this marks the last time that a Democrat has carried any congressional district in the state, or the following counties at the presidential level: Allamakee, Boone, Bremer, Buchanan, Cedar, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clarke, Clayton, Clinton, Des Moines, Dubuque, Fayette, Floyd, Howard, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Jones, Lee, Louisa, Marshall, Mitchell, Muscatine, Poweshiek, Tama, Union, Wapello, Webster, Winneshiek, Woodbury, and Worth. This is also the last presidential election in which Iowa voted to the left of Ohio, Texas, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Virginia, and the nation as a whole.

Caucuses

Democratic

On January 3, 2012, the Iowa Democratic Party held statewide caucuses to select delegates to the county conventions. Incumbent Barack Obama ran unopposed. However, caucus goers also had the option of voting "uncommitted" rather than supporting Obama, and some Occupy movement and anti-war activists urged Democrats to vote "uncommitted" in protest of the Obama administration. Of the 8,152 county convention delegates that were elected by the caucuses, 8,065 (99%) were for Obama and 87 (1%) were uncommitted. In the floor vote taken at the Democratic National Convention, 62 Iowa state delegates voted for Obama. The other 3 of the state's 65 allocated votes were not announced.

Republican

The 2012 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses took place on January 3, 2012.

Using the media's generally accepted definition of the Iowa Republican caucus as the non-binding secret polling at caucus sites and using the incomplete data available, the 2012 Iowa Republican caucus was the closest race in Iowa caucus history with only a thirty-four vote margin (about of a percent) separating former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, who received 29,839 votes (24.56%), and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who received 29,805 votes (24.53%). Representative Ron Paul of Texas ran a close third, receiving 26,036 votes (21.43%).

Trailing were former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich (16,163 votes, 13.30%), Texas governor Rick Perry (12,557 votes, 10.33%), and Representative Michele Bachmann (6,046 votes, 4.98%). Former Utah governor and ambassador to China Jon Huntsman, Jr., who skipped campaigning in Iowa to focus on the New Hampshire primary, received 739 votes (0.61%).

In total, 121,501 votes were recorded, setting a record for Iowa Republican caucus turnout; this record was broken in the 2016 election by more than 60,000 votes. However, this total was still far less than the all-time Iowa caucus record in the 2008 Democratic Iowa caucuses, in which 239,000 Democrats voted. The 121,501 votes represent 19.8 percent of active registered Republicans in the state and just 5.4 percent of all Iowans eligible to vote.

However, the vote totals of eight precincts were never counted, so the vote totals are not really known.

The secret polling results at Republican caucus sites were unrelated to the delegate selection process in 2012, although that has been changed for the 2016 election cycle.

If the Iowa 2012 Republican caucuses were regarded as the start of the Republican delegate selection process for the 2012 United States presidential election, the real caucus process was the election of Republican delegates to the county conventions, who would eventually determine the delegates at the state convention in June 2012. This would, in turn, determine the Iowa delegates who would attend the Republican National Convention in August, 2012.

This process rewarded campaign organizations that could not only get supporters to the caucus sites, but get supporters who would be willing to serve as delegates to county conventions and beyond. As a result, Ron Paul was ultimately able to win 22 of the 28 delegates to the national convention and Mitt Romney won the other six.

The 2011–2012 pre-caucus poll results for Iowa had highly volatile results; Gallup polls showed the leading candidate in Iowa change seven times from May 2011 until the caucuses. The 2012 caucuses also set a new record for political expenditures, with $12 million being spent, two-thirds of it from " super PACs" which dominated the campaigns by running highly negative attack ads.

In the August 13 Ames Straw Poll, a traditional straw poll held in Iowa Republican caucuses, Bachmann narrowly defeated Paul, with Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty trailing in third. Following his disappointing showing, Pawlenty dropped out of the race.

Three candidates' debates were held in Iowa over the course the campaign: one on August 11 in Ames ahead of the straw poll; one on December 10, 2011, in Des Moines, and one on December 15 in Sioux City. Several other joint candidates' appearances took place during the caucus campaign outside Iowa.

The day after her unsatisfactory sixth-place performance in Iowa, Bachmann announced she was dropping out of the presidential race. Following his low fifth-place finish, Perry initially announced he was "reassessing" his campaign "to determine whether there is a path forward," but subsequently stated that he would continue on to New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Campaign

=Early race

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Considered a frontrunner for the 2012 nomination, former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee, who was the winner of the Iowa Republican caucuses in 2008, was the leader in every statewide poll conducted in the state in 2010, and early 2011. Huckabee decided against a second bid, however, announcing the decision on his Fox News show ''Huckabee'' on May 14, 2011, stating "all the factors say go, but my heart says no, and that's the decision I've made." Following his decision, former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney became the frontrunner in polls conducted within the state in the weeks following, despite only appearing in Iowa a handful of times, and refusing to participate in the state's Ames Straw Poll in August 2011.

This trend only lasted for a couple months, however, when support for Congresswoman Michele Bachmann began to increase, due in large part to the support she was able to garner through the Tea Party movement, of which she was a founding member of the Tea Party Caucus in the United States House of Representatives. Bachmann also strongly played up the fact that she was born in Waterloo, Iowa, where she also officially kicked off her candidacy, before eventually moving to Minnesota with her family when she became a teenager.

In addition to Huckabee, several other potential candidates visited Iowa, including former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, Governor of Indiana Mitch Daniels, former Governor of New York George Pataki, Senator John Thune of South Dakota, Governor of Mississippi Haley Barbour, Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina, and Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie all decided against bids for president, despite receiving earlier speculation. Businessman Donald Trump, who also briefly flirted with the possibility of a bid for president, had sent several aides to Iowa, but ultimately decided against a bid.

Unlike the 2008 presidential election, when many of the potential candidates had announced their bids by February 2007, the only major candidate to announce their intentions as to whether they would form an exploratory committee for President of the United States was businessman Herman Cain on January 12, 2011, after having toured Iowa, speaking to various Republican Party groups and leaders, as well as leaders in the Tea Party movement. The first official visit to Iowa by Cain, as a presidential candidate, was on March 7, 2011, during a conference hosted by the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition, along with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich and former Governor Buddy Roemer, who also announced their own exploratory committees to run for president four days earlier.

Former Governor Tim Pawlenty, and former Senator Rick Santorum also participated in the event, though they had yet to announce their intentions to run for president. Following the conference, Pawlenty officially announced his bid on March 21, 2011, and made his first visit to Iowa as a presidential candidate on April 1, 2011, speaking with Republican Party leaders in Newton, Iowa. Santorum would also announce his own exploratory committee on April 13, 2011, and made his first visit as a candidate on April 25, 2011.

The next day, Congressman Ron Paul announced his exploratory committee to run for president in Des Moines, Iowa. He had visited the state several times before, including meeting with Governor of Iowa Terry Branstad a month earlier. Former Governor Mitt Romney, who announced his exploratory committee by posting a video on YouTube on April 11, 2011, failed to make his first appearance in Iowa until May 27, 2011, visiting Ankeny, Des Moines and Cedar Rapids.

A month later, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann made her first visit to Iowa as a candidate on June 26, 2011, when she officially announced her campaign in Waterloo, Iowa. Former Governor Jon Huntsman, who announced his campaign in front of the Statue of Liberty on June 21, 2011, was the final then-announced candidate to visit Iowa, making his first speech at a soapbox event held by the ''Des Moines Register'' at the Iowa State Fair on August 11, 2011.

=Ames Straw Poll

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As the Ames Straw Poll approached in August 2011, visits and spending by the campaigns dramatically increased. Several candidates, including Bachmann, Congressman Ron Paul, former Senator Rick Santorum, Congressman Thaddeus McCotter, former Governor Tim Pawlenty, and businessman Herman Cain made bids for spots to compete at the straw poll. Congressman Paul bid the most, and was awarded the prime spot at the straw poll, which Mitt Romney occupied in 2007, and eventually led to his victory.

A representative for Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich was also present, but due to his campaign facing large amounts of debt, did not place a bid, and was not given a spot at the straw poll. The rest of the candidates who did place a bid spent millions attempting to win the poll, with Bachmann, Paul and Pawlenty spending the most money, performing various get out the vote efforts, and visiting the state dozens of times in the weeks leading up to the straw poll.

Two days before the straw poll, the third official Republican debate was held at Iowa State University in Ames, sponsored by the Republican Party of Iowa, Fox News, and ''The Washington Examiner''. Candidates participating in the debate included Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Mitt Romney, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum. The debate was noted for the sparring between Bachmann and Pawlenty, with Pawlenty criticized Bachmann for what he said was a lack of leadership, while Bachmann fired back that Pawlenty's support for cap and trade legislation and the individual mandate while governor of Minnesota made his record look like Obama's.

Gingrich criticized Wallace by saying he was asking "gotcha questions" instead of legitimate questions. Romney responded to criticisms of his Massachusetts health care reform, and its similarity to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, termed "Obamacare" by its opponent. Santorum stated his view that same-sex marriage is not a state issue, because the 10th Amendment "does not give states the right to trample over moral law." Romney agreed that it is a federal issue, reasoning that people move to different states and that marriage is a status, not an activity that takes place within the walls of a state. Huntsman and Paul reiterated their support for civil unions.

On Saturday, August 13, 2011, the straw poll was conducted on the campus of Iowa State University at the Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa, with Bachmann narrowly defeating Paul, and former Governor Tim Pawlenty in third place. The 2011 straw poll had the second highest turnout in history, second only to 1999 straw poll, when then-Governor George W. Bush won in a landslide. Governor Rick Perry, who announced the day of the straw poll in South Carolina, but whose name did not appear on the ballot, received a significant number of write-in votes, placing in sixth. Other non-participating candidates, such as Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and former Governor of Utah Jon Huntsman, performed poorly in the straw poll, placing a distant seventh, eighth, and ninth respectively.

=Post-straw poll

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Following the straw poll, support of Congresswoman Michele Bachmann continued to grow, as the media focused on what they deemed the "new top tier" of Bachmann, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney. This drew criticism from the supporters of Congressman Ron Paul, as well as comedian Jon Stewart on his program ''The Daily Show'', who pointed out Paul's near tie with Bachmann in the poll, and subsequent lack of coverage of the candidate by the media. Bachmann's support in polls following Ames began to fall, however, with Rick Perry's support growing in the state following his entrance to the race. His first visit to the state as a presidential candidate was at an event held on August 14, 2011, in Waterloo, Iowa, which Bachmann also attended.

The same day, former Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota announced his intentions to withdraw from the race, as a result of placing a distant third in the Ames Straw Poll. Congressman Thaddeus McCotter also dropped out of the race a month after the straw poll, calling his presidential bid the "worst 15 minutes of life."

Going into September, media coverage of subsequent debates held in Simi Valley, California, Tampa and Orlando, Florida focused on Rick Perry's poor performance in those debates, and eventually led to a significant drop in his support in statewide polls conducted in both Iowa, as well as nationwide. This also coincided with the introduction of the 9–9–9 plan by fellow candidate businessman Herman Cain, who then saw a sharp rise in the polls, putting him in a virtual tie with Mitt Romney. In the weeks following, Cain was the subject of a scandal involving accusations of sexual harassment during his tenure at the National Restaurant Association, as well as an accusation that he had participated in a 13-year affair with an Atlanta businesswoman.

Subsequent statewide polling then saw a surge among several candidates, including Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, who would both surge in the final weeks before the caucuses. On December 3, 2011, in Atlanta, Georgia, Herman Cain officially announced the suspension of his campaign, due to the various allegations of sexual harassment, a 13-year affair, and personal attacks on his family. Soon thereafter it was reported that Cain would endorse Gingrich the following Monday, but it proved to be untrue, with Cain refusing to endorse any other candidates. Despite the suspension of his campaign, the Republican Party of Iowa will still report caucus vote totals for Cain.

=Final debates

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On December 10, 2011, the first of two final debates to be conducted in Iowa before the caucuses was held, and hosted by ABC News, ''The Des Moines Register'', and the Iowa Republican Party. The debate was the first to occur following Cain's campaign suspension, with Michele Bachmann, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Rick Perry, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum participating in the debate. Jon Huntsman, who had refused to contest Iowa, instead focusing his efforts on winning the New Hampshire primary, was not invited to participate in the debate, and did not meet the debate organizer's criteria of participation.

The debate was also one of the first to occur following Gingrich's surge in the statewide polls in Iowa, as well as nationwide. It was focused on various economic, foreign, and domestic issues, with Gingrich facing most of the criticism from his fellow competitors. Romney mocked Gingrich's plan to build a lunar colony to mine minerals from the moon, saying that the real difference between the two of them was their backgrounds, saying "I spent my life in the private sector. I know how the economy works."

Gingrich replied, "Let's be candid. The only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy in 1994", which drew boos and laughter from the audience. Romney replied "If I'd have beaten Ted Kennedy I could have been a career politician, that's probably true. If I would've been able to get in the NFL like I hoped when I was a kid, I would have been a football star all my life too." Mitt Romney later received criticism when he attempted to bet fellow candidate Rick Perry $10,000, when discussing the issue of his past support of a healthcare mandate, which Perry had pointed out was removed from his book.

Other participants, including Ron Paul, who had also seen a significant surge in polls in the state, criticized Gingrich for his participation as a consultant for mortgage company Freddie Mac

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