2022 Nord Stream Pipeline Sabotage

The 2022 Nord Stream pipeline sabotage consisted of a series of clandestine bombings and subsequent underwater gas leaks that occurred on the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines on 26 September 2022. The sabotage happened as the Baltic Pipe was being opened for natural gas to come in from the North Sea through Denmark to Poland; however, the perpetrators' identities and the motives behind the sabotage remain debated. Both pipeline pairs were built to transport natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, and are majority owned by the Russian majority state-owned gas company, Gazprom.

Prior to the leaks, the pipelines had not been operating due to disputes between Russia and the European Union in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine but were filled with natural gas. On 26 September at 02:03 local time (CEST), an explosion was detected originating from Nord Stream 2; a pressure drop in the pipeline was reported and natural gas began escaping to the surface southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm. Seventeen hours later, the same occurred to Nord Stream 1, resulting in three separate leaks northeast of Bornholm. All three affected pipes were rendered inoperable; Russia has confirmed one of the two Nord Stream 2 pipes is operable and is thus ready to deliver gas through Nord Stream 2. The leaks occurred one day after Poland and Norway opened the alternative Baltic Pipe running through Denmark, bringing in gas from the North Sea rather than from Russia as the Nord Stream pipelines do. The leaks are located in international waters (not part of any nation's territorial sea), but within the economic zones of Denmark and Sweden.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that the leaks were caused by deliberate action, not accidents, and specified that explosions had been recorded. Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that it likely was sabotage, a view that was also expressed by European Union officials and the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg. The theory of sabotage is backed up by photos taken by the German Federal Police, which show an leak that could only have been caused by an explosive device, according to Federal Government circles. Earlier, several commentators had suggested that the circumstances surrounding the leaks appeared to be suspicious and they had possibly been acts of sabotage. Nord Stream AG, the Gazprom-owned operator of Nord Stream, said the pipelines had sustained "unprecedented" damage in one day.

On 29 September, Russian President Vladimir Putin called the attack on the pipeline "an unprecedented act of international terrorism".

On 18 November, Swedish authorities confirmed that the leaks were caused by an act of sabotage.

Background

The United States has been a major opponent of the Nord Stream pipelines. Former US President Donald Trump said in 2019 that Nord Stream 2 could turn Europe into a "hostage of Russia" and placed sanctions on any company assisting Russia to complete the pipeline. In December 2020, then President Elect Joe Biden came out forcefully against the opening of the new pipeline and the impact this would have on potential Russian influence. In early 2022 it was reported that, while the Biden administration was "unwavering" in opposition to Nord Stream 2, it is "in the national interest of the United States" to waive these sanctions, mainly to appease European allies of the US, particularly Germany.

Timeline

The Geological Survey of Denmark said that a seismometer on Bornholm showed two spikes on 26 September: the first P wave at 02:03 local time (CEST) had a magnitude of 2.3 and the second at 19:03 had a magnitude of 2.1. Similar data was provided by a seismometer at Stevns, and by several seismometers in Germany, Sweden (as far away as the station in Kalix north), Finland and Norway. The seismic data was characteristic of underwater explosions, not natural events, and showed that they happened near the locations where the leaks were later discovered. Around the same time, pressure in the non-operating pipeline dropped from , as recorded by Nord Stream in Germany.

After Germany's initial report of pressure loss in Nord Stream 2, a gas leak from the pipeline was discovered by a Danish F-16 interceptor response unit to the southeast of Dueodde, Bornholm. Nord Stream 2 consists of two parallel lines and the leak happened in line A inside the Danish economic zone. Citing danger to shipping, Danish Maritime Authority closed the sea for all vessels in a zone around the leak site, and advised planes to stay at least above it. The pipe, which was not operating, had of pressurized gas in preparation for its first deliveries.

An environmental impact assessment of NS2 was made in 2019. By 2012, corrosion leaks had only occurred in two large pipelines worldwide. Leaks due to military-type acts and mishaps were considered "very unlikely". The largest leak in the analysis was defined as a "full-bore rupture (>)", for example from a sinking ship hitting the pipeline. Such an unlikely large leak from water depth could result in a gas plume up to wide at the surface.

For NS2, the pipes have an outer diameter of approximately and a steel wall thickness of thickest at the pipe ingress where operating pressure is and thinnest at the pipe egress where operating pressure is , when transporting gas. To weigh down the pipe (to ensure negative buoyancy), a layer of concrete surrounds the steel. Each line of the pipeline was made of about 100,000 concrete-weight coated steel pipes each weighing welded together and laid on the seabed. To facilitate pigging, the pipelines have a constant internal diameter of , according to Nord Stream. Sections lie at a depth of around .

Hours after the German office of Nord Stream AG had reported pressure loss in Nord Stream 1, two gas leaks were discovered on that pipeline by Swedish authorities. Both parallel lines of Nord Stream 1 are ruptured and the sites of its two leaks are about from each other, with one in the Swedish economic zone and the other in the Danish economic zone. On 28 September, the Swedish Coast Guard clarified that the initially reported leak in the Swedish economic zone actually was two leaks located near each other, bringing the total number of leaks on the Nord Stream pipes to four (two in the Swedish economic zone, two in the Danish).

While none of the pipelines were delivering supplies to Europe, both Nord Stream 1 and 2 were pressurized with gas.

Danish Defence posted a video of the gas leak on their website which showed that, as of 27 September, the largest of the leaks created turbulence on the water surface of approximately in diameter. The smallest leak made a circle of about in diameter. Analysts noted the much larger plumes as an indication that the rupture is very large, compared to a presumed technical leak plume of .

The SwePol power cable (between Sweden and Poland) passes between two of the leak sites at distance, and is being investigated for damage.

Swedish Navy ships were scouting for two days in nearby proximity where Nord Stream 1 and 2 were later subjected to sabotage. The search was carried out between Thursday and Saturday, but from the night of Sunday to Monday, no Swedish ships were at the site.

On 1 October, the Danish Energy Agency reported that one of the two pipelines, Nord Stream 2, appeared to have stopped leaking gas as the pressure inside the pipe had stabilized. The following day, the same agency reported that the pressure had stabilized in both Nord Stream 1 pipelines as well, indicating that the leakage had stopped. In contrast, Swedish authorities reported on 2 October that gas continues to escape from the two leaks in their economic zone, albeit to a lesser extent than a few days ago.

The leaks

Cause

Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that it likely was sabotage and also mentioned the detonations. The Geological Survey of Denmark said that the tremors that had been detected were unlike those recorded during earthquakes, but similar to those recorded during explosions. The Swedish public service broadcaster SVT reported that measuring stations in both Sweden and Denmark recorded strong underwater explosions near the Nord Stream pipelines. Björn Lund, Associate Professor in Seismology at The Swedish National Seismic Network (SNSN) said "there is no doubt that these were explosions" at an estimated TNT equivalent. European Union officials blamed sabotage, as did the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, and the Prime Minister of Poland, Mateusz Morawiecki.

The Kremlin said that it did not rule out sabotage as a reason for the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines. Dmitry Peskov

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