The 2018–2021 Southern Africa drought was a period of

drought A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...

that took place in

Southern Africa Southern Africa is the southernmost region of Africa. No definition is agreed upon, but some groupings include the United Nations geoscheme for Africa, United Nations geoscheme, the intergovernmental Southern African Development Community, and ...

. The drought began in late October 2018, and negatively affected

food security Food security is the state of having reliable access to a sufficient quantity of affordable, healthy Human food, food. The availability of food for people of any class, gender, ethnicity, or religion is another element of food protection. Simila ...

in the region. In mid-August 2019, the drought was classified as a level 2 Red-Class event by the Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System. The alert level was reduced to the Orange-1.7 by 12 December 2019, as the new wet season had started. In September 2020, the drought was classified as a level 2 Red-Class event. The drought continued into early 2021. Beginning in October 2021, South Africa experienced above average rainfall and reservoirs refilled by early 2022.

Description

Background

As a region, Southern Africa has historically been at high risk of droughts; a probability due to several meteorological and sociological factors. The Southern African climate is affected by strong seasonal rainfall patterns; the majority of the region's annual rainfall is deposited by storms from early November to March, forming what is considered Southern Africa's

wet season The wet season (sometimes called the rainy season or monsoon season) is the time of year when most of a region's average annual rainfall occurs. Generally, the season lasts at least one month. The term ''green season'' is also sometimes used a ...

. The wet months of rainfall saturate the region's soil, providing moisture that persists for the drier months of the year. While this cycle is normally reliable, anomalies in the climate—such as

El Niño EL, El or el may refer to: Arts and entertainment Fictional entities * El, a character from the manga series ''Shugo Chara!'' by Peach-Pit * Eleven (''Stranger Things'') (El), a fictional character in the TV series ''Stranger Things'' * El, fami ...

events—disrupt the region's annual level of rainfall; this, in turn, causes the decline of the region's plant life, the lowering of water levels in bodies of water and a loss of moisture from the soil, with the latter effect causing a drought.Southern Africa Drought Situation. Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations. Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – DG ECHO Daily Map 29 January 2019
/ref> As noted by sources, Southern Africa's low level of

economic development In economics, economic development (or economic and social development) is the process by which the economic well-being and quality of life of a nation, region, local community, or an individual are improved according to targeted goals and object ...

and reliance on

agriculture Agriculture encompasses crop and livestock production, aquaculture, and forestry for food and non-food products. Agriculture was a key factor in the rise of sedentary human civilization, whereby farming of domesticated species created ...

—namely

cereal A cereal is a grass cultivated for its edible grain. Cereals are the world's largest crops, and are therefore staple foods. They include rice, wheat, rye, oats, barley, millet, and maize ( Corn). Edible grains from other plant families, ...

crops and

livestock Livestock are the Domestication, domesticated animals that are raised in an Agriculture, agricultural setting to provide labour and produce diversified products for consumption such as meat, Egg as food, eggs, milk, fur, leather, and wool. The t ...

—leave the region highly susceptible to droughts. Though variations exist, the region's farmers tend to plant their next crop in late October—this

sowing Sowing is the process of planting seeds. An area that has had seeds planted in it will be described as a sowed or sown area. Plants which are usually sown Among the major field crops, oats, wheat, and rye are sown, grasses and legumes are ...

is timed with the expected rains that begin to arrive in November. The next five-six months are considered the "lean" season, during which time stockpiled food is consumed while the concurrent "wet" season rains nourish the next year's crops. However, if the usual rains are disrupted by a weather anomaly, planting is delayed until November or early December, resulting in a longer "lean" season before crops can be harvested. If the region's weather patterns are disrupted enough to cause drought, the lack of rainfall and eventual loss of moisture from soil often results in a noteworthy decline in Southern Africa's agricultural production; the resulting detrimental economic conditions lead to social unrest and a decline in the level of regional food security. Periods of drought effect Southern Africa's various biomes and wildlife, while reduced water levels in rivers can cause

hydroelectric dams Hydroelectricity, or hydroelectric power, is electricity generated from hydropower (water power). Hydropower supplies 15% of the world's electricity, almost 4,210 TWh in 2023, which is more than all other renewable sources combined and also ...

to operate at reduced capacity. El Niño events in Southern Africa also increase the likelihood of

African armyworm The African armyworm (''Spodoptera exempta''), also called ''okalombo'', ''kommandowurm'', or nutgrass armyworm, is a species of moth of the family Noctuidae. The larvae often exhibit marching behavior when traveling to feeding sites, leading to ...

outbreaks, further decreasing the region's agricultural output.

Previous droughts

In the late 2015 – early 2016 season, an El Niño event caused a drought in some parts of Southern Africa. As of the start of the 2018-19 ongoing El Niño-induced drought, some parts of Southern Africa had not yet recovered from the effects of the earlier drought. In Namibia, the drought of 2012/2013 was thought to be the worst of the decade as around 42% if the total population experienced food insecurity. The Namibian government declared a state of emergency in 2012.

2018–2021 drought

Initial warning

In August and September 2018, several organizations began to warn farmers about the possibility of an oncoming drought. In August 2018 the

Southern African Development Community The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is an inter-governmental organization headquartered in Gaborone, Botswana. Goals The SADC's goal is to further regional socio-economic cooperation and integration as well as political and se ...

advised farmers to avoid selling some of their stockpiled food from the previous season, and in September 2018 the United Nations

Food and Agriculture Organization The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; . (FAO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations that leads international efforts to defeat hunger and improve nutrition and food security. Its Latin motto, , translates ...

(FAO) issued a warning to Southern African countries about the formation of conditions for a drought. Patrick Kormawa, the Sub-Regional Coordinator for FAO in Southern Africa, predicted a 40 percent chance the region would be impacted by an El Niño event in Fall 2018.

Current drought

In spring 2018, an El Niño event disrupted Southern Africa's annual rainfall. The first effect of this disruption was a delayed sowing date, which was pushed back from late October to early November. In November, a report by the

United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) is a United Nations (UN) body established in December 1991 by the General Assembly to strengthen the international response to complex emergencies and natural disaster ...

(OCHA) reported an 80 percent likelihood of the El Niño event continuing until December; it also noted that 9.6 million people in Southern Africa were severely food-insecure as of the start of the 2019 lean season. The drought continued to 2019 with multiple regions in Southern Africa seeing significantly reduced levels of rainfall. A report from FAO noted that, while rainfall had picked up in late December 2018, several areas within the region were suffering from a severe drought and accompanying effects. As of April 2019, parts of Southern Africa remain affected by the ongoing drought. Heavier than average rainfall during the first weeks of February in some locales have alleviated local droughts, but the area as a whole is expected to suffer from negatively impacted cropping conditions. Rates of hunger in the region have risen, and are expected to continue to rise. The drought was re-declared as national emergency in South Africa 4 March 2020. 17 March 2020 the black market of stolen water was reported in

Nelson Mandela Bay Metropolitan Municipality The Nelson Mandela Bay Municipality (; ) is one of eight metropolitan municipalities in South Africa. It is located on the shores of Algoa Bay in the Eastern Cape province and comprises the city of Gqeberha, the nearby towns of Uitenhage and De ...

amidst emergency-related corruption concerns. In May 2019, Namibia declared a state of emergency in response to the drought, and extended it by additional 6 months in October 2019. This is the third time in six years the government has declared a state of emergency. The drought of 2019 has been described as the worst in the last 90 years in the country, with the lowest recorded rainfall in

Windhoek Windhoek (; ; ) is the capital and largest city of Namibia. It is located in central Namibia in the Khomas Highland plateau area, at around above sea level, almost exactly at the country's geographical centre. The population of Windhoek, which ...

since 1891. The agricultural sector is one of Namibia's primary industries and due to extremely low rainfall in 2019, production in the sector fell by 17.5%. Grazing land conditions were observed to have deteriorated to a very poor state in many parts of the country leading to severe pressure on the grazing and to a severe decline in livestock due to starvation. A combination of lack of rainfall and low soil moisture led to a severe and prolonged drought in 2019 which resulted in real hardship and significantly affected many livelihoods, especially among the most vulnerable communities. In August 2020 a vulnerability assessment conducted by the Namibian government found 427,905 Namibian people are currently food insecure. Factors that contribute to this insecurity includes the impact of droughts, floods, pests and worms.

References

{{DEFAULTSORT:2018-2021 Southern Africa drought

Drought A drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions.Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, ...

Drought,Southern Africa,2018-2021 Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought Southern Africa drought

Natural disasters in Angola Natural disasters in Botswana Natural disasters in Eswatini Natural disasters in Mozambique Natural disasters in Namibia Natural disasters in South Africa Natural disasters in Zimbabwe