The 2018 California's 10th congressional district election was held November 6, 2018, to determine the U.S. congressional representative for
California's 10th congressional district
California's 10th congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of California. Currently, the 10th district encompasses parts of the eastern San Francisco Bay Area. It is currently represented by Democratic Party (United ...
(CA-10). The district is based in the
Central Valley and includes
Modesto
Modesto ( ; ) is the county seat and largest city of Stanislaus County, California, United States. With a population of 218,069 according to 2022 U.S. Census Bureau estimates, it is the 19th-most populous city in California.
Modesto is locate ...
and
Tracy. Republican
Jeff Denham
Jeffrey John Denham (born July 29, 1967) is an American politician, United States Air Force veteran, and businessman. A member of the Republican Party, he served as the U.S. representative for from 2013 to 2019. Denham first won election to t ...
, who had represented the 10th district since 2013 and previously represented the 19th district from 2011 to 2013, ran for re-election. He faced six Democrats and one Republican in the primary election.
California's 10th district was included on the list of Republican-held seats being targeted by the
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) in 2018. This race concerned the DCCC and other Democratic groups due to the possibility that two Republicans might advance to the general election because of California's
jungle primary rules.
However, Denham and Democratic candidate
Josh Harder
Joshua Keck Harder (born August 1, 1986) is an American politician and venture capital investor who has served as the United States House of Representatives, U.S. representative for California's 9th congressional district since 2023, after serv ...
prevailed on June 5, 2018, advancing to the general election the following November.
In September 2018, both
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.
The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the U ...
and ''
The Economist
''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...
'' projected that Harder had at least a 63% chance of defeating Denham.
Josh Harder won the general election held on November 6, though Jeff Denham led the reported vote count for several days.
Denham conceded defeat on November 14.
Primary election
By May 2017, there were three challengers who had announced their candidacies, including Josh Harder.
[Wire, Sarah D; Central Valley's Jeff Denham gets new 2018 challenger; LA Times; May 3, 2017; http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-central-valley-s-jeff-denham-draws-1493844264-htmlstory.html] Many Democratic candidates participated in debates that were held between September 2017 and January 2018. Following the January debate, the
Indivisible chapter in Manteca published a poll suggesting that
TJ Cox
Terrance John Cox (born July 18, 1963) is an American politician who served as the U.S. representative for California's 21st congressional district from 2019 to 2021. The son of Chinese American and Filipino American parents, Cox was elected to t ...
was the preferred candidate for the Democratic nomination, followed by Harder and Virginia Madueño (the former mayor of
Riverbank
In geography, a bank is the land alongside a body of water.
Different structures are referred to as ''banks'' in different fields of geography.
In limnology (the study of inland waters), a stream bank or river bank is the terrain alongsid ...
). In a January 2018 caucus vote, Harder received 40% and Cox received 39% of the vote, resulting in no endorsement of either candidate.
Shortly thereafter, Michael Eggman also entered the 2018 race.
Eggman was Jeff Denham's general election opponent in the
2014 election and the
2016 election for the district.
Immediately prior to the March 2018 filing deadline, Cox withdrew from this race, and Republican Ted Howze entered. Cox withdrew from the CA-10 race in order to compete in
the election in California's 21st congressional district (CA-21). CA-21 had no Democratic candidates prior to Cox's move, due to Emilio Huerta (the
prior Democratic candidate) dropping out of the race. Republican Ted Howze also entered the race in March 2018.
The ''Modesto Bee'' wrote on May 12, 2018, "Jeff Denham is going to be hard to beat." By this point, the original field of Democratic candidates had been cut in half from ten. In addition to Harder, Eggman, and Madueño, they included Sue Zwahlen (a former ER nurse and school board member), and Michael Barkley (a lawyer, accountant, and computer programmer).
Denham received first place in the primary, with Harder receiving second place with 16.7% of the vote.
On election night, it appeared that Harder would only narrowly defeat Republican Ted Howze with less than one thousand votes.
However, the final returns put Harder ahead of Howze by over 3,000 votes.
Polling
Results
General election
As a result of California's
jungle primary system, only Jeff Denham and Josh Harder advanced to the general election ballot. In September 2018, both
FiveThirtyEight
''FiveThirtyEight'', also rendered as ''538'', was an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States.
The website, which took its name from the number of electors in the U ...
and
The Economist
''The Economist'' is a British newspaper published weekly in printed magazine format and daily on Electronic publishing, digital platforms. It publishes stories on topics that include economics, business, geopolitics, technology and culture. M ...
projected that Harder had at least a 63% chance of defeating Denham.
Candidates
Jeff Denham
Denham was the
Republican Party incumbent who ran for re-election in 2018. He originally won election to the U.S. House in 2010 by defeating Democrat Loraine Goodwin, representing
California's 19th congressional district
California's 19th congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of California, currently represented by .
Following redistricting in 2021, the district includes most of the wealthier, white portions of the Central Coast, ...
(succeeding prior Republican incumbent
George Radanovich). He served there for one term before redistricting led him to win his return to Congress in the 10th district in 2012, which he represented since 2013.
Prior to serving in
U.S. House of Representatives
The United States House of Representatives is a chamber of the bicameral United States Congress; it is the lower house, with the U.S. Senate being the upper house. Together, the House and Senate have the authority under Article One of th ...
, Denham served in the
California State Senate
The California State Senate is the upper house of the California State Legislature (the lower house being the California State Assembly). The state senate convenes, along with the state assembly, at the California State Capitol in Sacramento.
...
, representing
California's 12th State Senate district
California's 12th senatorial district is one of 40 California State Senate districts. It is currently represented by Republican Shannon Grove of Bakersfield.
District profile
Since 2022
New district boundaries drawn by the 2020 Californ ...
from 2002 to 2010. Prior to seeking political office, Denham served on active and reserve status in the
United States Air Force
The United States Air Force (USAF) is the Air force, air service branch of the United States Department of Defense. It is one of the six United States Armed Forces and one of the eight uniformed services of the United States. Tracing its ori ...
for 16 years, and served in both
Operation Desert Storm
Operation or Operations may refer to:
Arts, entertainment and media
* ''Operation'' (game), a battery-operated board game that challenges dexterity
* Operation (music), a term used in musical set theory
* ''Operations'' (magazine), Multi-Man ...
in Iraq and
Operation Restore Hope
The Unified Task Force (UNITAF), also known as Operation Restore Hope, was a United States-led, United Nations-sanctioned multinational military force deployed to Somalia from 5 December 1992 to 4 May 1993. It was established to replace United ...
in Somalia.
Josh Harder
Harder was one of the first candidates to enter the primary race in May 2017, shortly after moving back to the district and assuming a teaching role at
Modesto Junior College
Modesto Junior College (MJC) is a public community college in Modesto, California. It is part of Yosemite Community College District along with Columbia College. MJC, and Columbia College, belong to the California Community College system al ...
.
Prior to 2017, Harder held an executive role at venture capital firm
Bessemer Venture Partners
Bessemer Venture Partners (BVP) is an American venture capital and private equity firm headquartered in San Francisco. Outside the United States, it has offices in India, Israel, Hong Kong, and the United Kingdom. In 2024, Venture Capital Journa ...
.
Harder was born in
Turlock, California
Turlock is a city in Stanislaus County, California, United States. Its population was 72,740 at the 2020 United States census, making it the second-largest city in Stanislaus County after Modesto.
History
Founded on December 22, 1871, by pr ...
, and graduated from
Modesto High School. He earned political science and economics undergraduate degrees from
Stanford University
Leland Stanford Junior University, commonly referred to as Stanford University, is a Private university, private research university in Stanford, California, United States. It was founded in 1885 by railroad magnate Leland Stanford (the eighth ...
, as well as a joint
MBA
A Master of Business Administration (MBA) is a professional degree focused on business administration. The core courses in an MBA program cover various areas of business administration; elective courses may allow further study in a particular a ...
/
MPP from
Harvard Business School
Harvard Business School (HBS) is the graduate school, graduate business school of Harvard University, a Private university, private Ivy League research university. Located in Allston, Massachusetts, HBS owns Harvard Business Publishing, which p ...
and
Kennedy School of Government
The John F. Kennedy School of Government, commonly referred to as Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), is the school of public policy of Harvard University, a private university in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Harvard Kennedy School offers master's de ...
. Harder worked in the
San Francisco Bay Area
The San Francisco Bay Area, commonly known as the Bay Area, is a List of regions of California, region of California surrounding and including San Francisco Bay, and anchored by the cities of Oakland, San Francisco, and San Jose, California, S ...
for Bessemer Venture Partners for three years and before moving back to Turlock.
Harder taught business at
Modesto Junior College
Modesto Junior College (MJC) is a public community college in Modesto, California. It is part of Yosemite Community College District along with Columbia College. MJC, and Columbia College, belong to the California Community College system al ...
.
During the 2018 general election campaign, Harder and his wife, Pamela, were married near her home town of
Reston, Virginia
Reston is a census-designated place in Fairfax County, Virginia, United States, and a principal city of both Northern Virginia and the Washington metropolitan area. As of the 2020 U.S. census, Reston's population was 63,226.
Founded in 1964, Rest ...
.
Endorsements
Josh Harder
*
Barack Obama
Barack Hussein Obama II (born August 4, 1961) is an American politician who was the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American president in American history. O ...
, 44th
President of the United States
The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States. The president directs the Federal government of the United States#Executive branch, executive branch of the Federal government of t ...
*
Brady Campaign
Brady: United Against Gun Violence (formerly “Handgun Control, Inc”., the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence) is an American nonprofit organization that advocates for gun control and against ...
to Prevent Gun Violence
*
California Labor Federation
The California Labor Federation is a federation of labor unions in the U.S. state of California. It is an affiliate of the AFL–CIO. Founded in 1901 as the California State Federation of Labor, the CLF has grown to encompass over 1,300 unions ...
*
California Teachers Association
The California Teachers Association (CTA) is a teachers' trade union based in the city of Burlingame, California. The association was initially established in 1863. It is regarded as one of the largest and most powerful teachers' unions in the st ...
*
Council for a Livable World
Council for a Livable World is a Washington, D.C.-based non-profit advocacy organization dedicated to eliminating the U.S. arsenal of nuclear weapons. Its stated aim is for "progressive national security policies and helping elect congressional ca ...
*
End Citizens United
End Citizens United (ECU) is a political action committee in the United States. The organization works to reverse the U.S. Supreme Court's 2010 decision in ''Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission'', which deregulated limits on independen ...
*
J Street
J Street () is a nonprofit liberal Zionist advocacy and lobby group based in the United States whose aims include strengthening Jewish democracy in Israel, promoting a diplomatic end to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict with a two-state ...
*
League of Conservation Voters
The League of Conservation Voters (LCV) is an American environmental advocacy group. LCV says that it "builds political power for people and the planet." Through its affiliated super PAC, it is a major supporter of the Democratic Party. The org ...
*
National Education Association
The National Education Association (NEA) is the largest labor union in the United States. It represents public school teachers and other support personnel, faculty and staffers at colleges and universities, retired educators, and college st ...
*
Sierra Club
The Sierra Club is an American environmental organization with chapters in all 50 U.S. states, Washington, D.C., Washington D.C., and Puerto Rico. The club was founded in 1892, in San Francisco, by preservationist John Muir. A product of the Pro ...
Debates
Complete video of debate September 30, 2018
Polling
with Eggman
with generic Democrat
Results
On election night and for the first three days following the election, Jeff Denham held a lead in the reported results.
On Friday, November 9, an update was published after tallying many of the absentee ballots that arrived in the days following the election, putting Harder in the lead.
On November 13, AP News projected that Democrat Josh Harder would win the election, with Denham conceding the following day.
Results by county
Results by county. Harder won both counties.
Blue represents counties won by Harder.
References
{{California elections
United States House of Representatives 10
California 10
2018 10