United States presidential election in Maine, 2016

The 2016 United States presidential election in Maine was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the

2016 United States presidential election The 2016 United States presidential election was the 58th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. The Republican ticket of businessman Donald Trump and Indiana governor Mike Pence defeated the Democratic ticket ...

in which all 50 states plus the

District of Columbia ) , image_skyline = , image_caption = Clockwise from top left: the Washington Monument and Lincoln Memorial on the National Mall, United States Capitol, Logan Circle, Jefferson Memorial, White House, Adams Morgan, ...

participated.

Maine Maine () is a state in the New England and Northeastern regions of the United States. It borders New Hampshire to the west, the Gulf of Maine to the southeast, and the Canadian provinces of New Brunswick and Quebec to the northeast and north ...

voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman

Donald Trump Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pe ...

, and running mate

Indiana Governor The governor of Indiana is the head of government of the State of Indiana. The governor is elected to a four-year term and is responsible for overseeing the day-to-day management of the functions of many agencies of the Indiana state government ...

Mike Pence Michael Richard Pence (born June 7, 1959) is an American politician who served as the 48th vice president of the United States from 2017 to 2021 under President Donald Trump. A member of the Republican Party, he previously served as the 50th ...

against

Democratic Party Democratic Party most often refers to: *Democratic Party (United States) Democratic Party and similar terms may also refer to: Active parties Africa *Botswana Democratic Party *Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea *Gabonese Democratic Party *Demo ...

nominee, former Secretary of State

Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton ( Rodham; born October 26, 1947) is an American politician, diplomat, and former lawyer who served as the 67th United States Secretary of State for President Barack Obama from 2009 to 2013, as a United States sen ...

, and her running mate Virginia

Senator A senate is a deliberative assembly, often the upper house or chamber of a bicameral legislature. The name comes from the ancient Roman Senate (Latin: ''Senatus''), so-called as an assembly of the senior (Latin: ''senex'' meaning "the el ...

Tim Kaine Timothy Michael Kaine (; born February 26, 1958) is an American lawyer and politician serving as the junior United States senator from Virginia since 2013. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as the 38th lieutenant governor of Virgini ...

. Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College. Unlike all other states except

Nebraska Nebraska () is a state in the Midwestern region of the United States. It is bordered by South Dakota to the north; Iowa to the east and Missouri to the southeast, both across the Missouri River; Kansas to the south; Colorado to the southwe ...

, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The last time it did so was in 1828. On election day, Clinton carried Maine's two at-large electoral votes with a plurality and won

Maine's 1st congressional district Maine's 1st congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of Maine. The geographically smaller of the state's two congressional districts, the district covers the southern coastal area of the state. The district consists ...

, while Trump won

Maine's 2nd congressional district Maine's 2nd congressional district is a congressional district in the U.S. state of Maine. Covering , it comprises nearly 80% of the state's total land area. The district comprises most of the land area north of the Portland and Augusta metro ...

, making him the first Republican to do so since

George H. W. Bush George Herbert Walker BushSince around 2000, he has been usually called George H. W. Bush, Bush Senior, Bush 41 or Bush the Elder to distinguish him from his eldest son, George W. Bush, who served as the 43rd president from 2001 to 2009; pr ...

1988 File:1988 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: The oil platform Piper Alpha explodes and collapses in the North Sea, killing 165 workers; The USS Vincennes (CG-49) mistakenly shoots down Iran Air Flight 655; Australia celebrates its Australian ...

and also making him the first Republican to win an electoral vote from a

New England New England is a region comprising six states in the Northeastern United States: Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont. It is bordered by the state of New York to the west and by the Canadian provinces ...

state since

George W. Bush George Walker Bush (born July 6, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 43rd president of the United States from 2001 to 2009. A member of the Republican Party, Bush family, and son of the 41st president George H. W. Bush, he ...

won

New Hampshire New Hampshire is a U.S. state, state in the New England region of the northeastern United States. It is bordered by Massachusetts to the south, Vermont to the west, Maine and the Gulf of Maine to the east, and the Canadian province of Quebec t ...

2000 File:2000 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Protests against Bush v. Gore after the 2000 United States presidential election; Heads of state meet for the Millennium Summit; The International Space Station in its infant form as seen from ...

. Maine was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. It voted for the Democratic ticket only three times (

1912 Events January * January 1 – The Republic of China (1912–49), Republic of China is established. * January 5 – The Prague Conference (6th All-Russian Conference of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party) opens. * January 6 ...

1964 Events January * January 1 – The Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland is dissolved. * January 5 - In the first meeting between leaders of the Roman Catholic and Orthodox churches since the fifteenth century, Pope Paul VI and Patriarch ...

, and

1968 The year was highlighted by protests and other unrests that occurred worldwide. Events January–February * January 5 – "Prague Spring": Alexander Dubček is chosen as leader of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia. * Januar ...

) from

1856 Events January–March * January 8 – Borax deposits are discovered in large quantities by John Veatch in California. * January 23 – American paddle steamer SS ''Pacific'' leaves Liverpool (England) for a transatlantic voyag ...

to 1988, but a Democrat has won the state's popular vote in every election since then. Although regarded as a safe blue state, Maine shifted dramatically and unexpectedly towards the Republicans, with Clinton's 2.96% margin of victory the narrowest for a Democrat since 1988, when Republicans last won the state, and well down on Obama's 15.29% margin in

2012 File:2012 Events Collage V3.png, From left, clockwise: The passenger cruise ship Costa Concordia lies capsized after the Costa Concordia disaster; Damage to Casino Pier in Seaside Heights, New Jersey as a result of Hurricane Sandy; People gather ...

. As a measure of how Republican Maine once was at the presidential level, Trump is only the third Republican to win the White House without winning the popular vote in Maine after Richard Nixon in

and George W. Bush in both his

and

2004 2004 was designated as an International Year of Rice by the United Nations, and the International Year to Commemorate the Struggle Against Slavery and its Abolition (by UNESCO). Events January * January 3 – Flash Airlines Flight 6 ...

campaigns. In addition to the historic electoral vote split in Maine, this marked the first time that such a split occurred after Maine began awarding electoral votes based on congressional districts in 1972. This was also the second time that a state split its Electoral College vote by congressional district since

2008 File:2008 Events Collage.png, From left, clockwise: Lehman Brothers went bankrupt following the Subprime mortgage crisis; Cyclone Nargis killed more than 138,000 in Myanmar; A scene from the opening ceremony of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing; ...

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Bernie Sanders Bernard Sanders (born September8, 1941) is an American politician who has served as the junior United States senator from Vermont since 2007. He was the U.S. representative for the state's at-large congressional district from 1991 to 2007 ...

swept all of

's counties and also won a large share of the democratic caucus votes in

Republican caucuses

Ted Cruz Rafael Edward "Ted" Cruz (; born December 22, 1970) is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator from Texas since 2013. A member of the Republican Party, Cruz served as Solicitor General of Texas from ...

Marco Rubio Marco Antonio Rubio (born May 28, 1971) is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States senator from Florida, a seat he has held since 2011. A member of the Republican Party, he served as Speaker of the Florida Hous ...

, and

John Kasich John Richard Kasich Jr. ( ; born May 13, 1952) is an American politician, author, and television news host who served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 1983 to 2001 and as the 69th governor of Ohio from 2011 to 2019. A Republican, Kasic ...

were all on the ballot for the 2016 Maine state Republican caucuses. The caucuses were held on March 5, 2016, in the following counties in Maine:

Cumberland Cumberland ( ) is a historic county in the far North West England. It covers part of the Lake District as well as the north Pennines and Solway Firth coast. Cumberland had an administrative function from the 12th century until 1974. From 19 ...

Franklin Franklin may refer to: People * Franklin (given name) * Franklin (surname) * Franklin (class), a member of a historical English social class Places Australia * Franklin, Tasmania, a township * Division of Franklin, federal electoral d ...

, Piscataquis,

Somerset ( en, All The People of Somerset) , locator_map = , coordinates = , region = South West England , established_date = Ancient , established_by = , preceded_by = , origin = , lord_lieutenant_office =Lord Lieutenant of Somerset , lord_ ...

, Aroostook, Androscoggin, Sagadahoc, Kennebec,

Lincoln Lincoln most commonly refers to: * Abraham Lincoln (1809–1865), the sixteenth president of the United States * Lincoln, England, cathedral city and county town of Lincolnshire, England * Lincoln, Nebraska, the capital of Nebraska, U.S. * Lincol ...

, Knox,

Hancock Hancock may refer to: Places in the United States * Hancock, Iowa * Hancock, Maine * Hancock, Maryland * Hancock, Massachusetts * Hancock, Michigan * Hancock, Minnesota * Hancock, Missouri * Hancock, New Hampshire ** Hancock (CDP), New Hampshir ...

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Oxford Oxford () is a city in England. It is the county town and only city of Oxfordshire. In 2020, its population was estimated at 151,584. It is north-west of London, south-east of Birmingham and north-east of Bristol. The city is home to the ...

, and

Penobscot The Penobscot (Abenaki: ''Pαnawάhpskewi'') are an Indigenous people in North America from the Northeastern Woodlands region. They are organized as a federally recognized tribe in Maine and as a First Nations band government in the Atlantic pr ...

. Ted Cruz won the caucus with 45.9% of the vote and was awarded 12 delegates, with Donald Trump in second, receiving 32.59% of the votes and 9 delegates. Delegates were awarded to candidates who got 10% or more of the vote proportionally.

Green caucuses

Maine held a series of caucuses throughout the state between February 27 and March 19. The

Maine Green Independent Party The Maine Green Independent Party is a state-level political party affiliated with the Green Party of the United States. It is the oldest state green party in the United States. It was founded following an informal meeting of 17 environmental ...

didn't compile the results until the state convention on May 7, during which it then assigned delegates based on the results. On March 13, 2016, it was announced that Jill Stein had won the Maine Green Independent Party caucuses.

Libertarian convention

The

Libertarian Party Active parties by country Defunct parties by country Organizations associated with Libertarian parties See also * Liberal parties by country * List of libertarian organizations * Lists of political parties Lists of political part ...

nominated its ticket, former

New Mexico Governor , insignia = Seal of the Governor of New Mexico.svg , insigniasize = 110px , insigniacaption = Seal of the Governor , image = File:Michelle Lujan Grisham 2021.jpg , imagesize = 200px , alt = , incumbent = Michelle Lujan Grisham , incu ...

Gary Johnson Gary Earl Johnson (born January 1, 1953) is an American businessman, author, and politician. He served as the 29th governor of New Mexico from 1995 to 2003 as a member of the Republican Party. He was the Libertarian Party nominee for Presid ...

for president and former

Massachusetts Governor The governor of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts is the chief executive officer of the government of Massachusetts. The governor is the head of the state cabinet and the commander-in-chief of the commonwealth's military forces. Massachusetts ...

William Weld William is a male given name of Germanic origin.Hanks, Hardcastle and Hodges, ''Oxford Dictionary of First Names'', Oxford University Press, 2nd edition, , p. 276. It became very popular in the English language after the Norman conquest of Engl ...

for vice president, at its

national convention The National Convention (french: link=no, Convention nationale) was the parliament of the Kingdom of France for one day and the French First Republic for the rest of its existence during the French Revolution, following the two-year National ...

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, on May 29, 2016. Until July 13, 2016, the Libertarian Party was not a legally recognized party in Maine. A 2013 change in the ballot access law permitted a party to gain recognition if they enroll 5,000 Maine voters in the party. The Libertarian Party of Maine turned approximately 6,500 signatures in to the

Maine Secretary of State The secretary of state of Maine is a constitutional officer in the U.S. state of Maine and serves as the head of the Maine Department of State. The Secretary of State performs duties of both a legislative branch as well as an executive branch off ...

's office in 2015, but Secretary of State

Matthew Dunlap Matthew Dunlap (born November 26, 1964) is an American politician from Maine who is the Maine State Auditor.. A Democrat, Dunlap served as Secretary of State of Maine from January 7, 2013, to January 4, 2021, and previously served in that same ...

invalidated 2,000 of them, bringing the total below the threshold required. The party then sued Dunlap, claiming Maine's ballot access requirements were unconstitutionally unreasonable. While losing an initial ruling by U.S. District Court Judge John Woodcock, Woodcock later ordered that they be given until July 12 to collect the necessary signatures. On July 13, Dunlap certified that 5,150 signatures had been validated, surpassing the threshold required to allow their candidates on the ballot. Maintenance of the status required obtaining 10,000 presidential votes in the general election.

General election

Maine distributes 2 EVs based on the statewide vote and 1 EV for each congressional district's vote.

Predictions

Polling

Statewide, Hillary Clinton won every pre-election poll but one with margins ranging from 3 to 11 points. The average of the last two polls showed Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump 46.5% to 41% statewide.

Statewide Polls

Four-way race

1st congressional district

Hillary Clinton won every poll in the 1st Congressional District. The average of the last three polls had her leading 49% to 36%.

2nd congressional district

Donald Trump won most of the polls conducted in Maine's 2nd district. He was ahead anywhere from 3 to 11 points, although Hillary Clinton won the last poll 44% to 42%. An average of the last two polls showed Trump leading Hillary Clinton 41.5% to 41%.

=Polls

= Four-way race

Statewide results

County results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Androscoggin (largest city: Lewiston) * Aroostook (largest city: Presque Isle) *

(largest town:

Farmington Farmington may refer to: Places Canada *Farmington, British Columbia * Farmington, Nova Scotia (disambiguation) United States *Farmington, Arkansas *Farmington, California *Farmington, Connecticut *Farmington, Delaware * Farmington, Georgia * ...

) * Kennebec (largest city: Augusta) *

(largest town: Rumford) *

(largest city: Bangor) *

(largest town:

Skowhegan Skowhegan () is the county seat of Somerset County, Maine. As of the 2020 census, the town population was 8,620. Every August, Skowhegan hosts the annual Skowhegan State Fair, the oldest continuously-held state fair in the United States. Skowh ...

) *

(largest city:

Calais Calais ( , , traditionally , ) is a port city in the Pas-de-Calais department, of which it is a subprefecture. Although Calais is by far the largest city in Pas-de-Calais, the department's prefecture is its third-largest city of Arras. Th ...

)

Congressional district

Clinton took the southern 1st district while Trump carried the more rural 2nd district.

Notes

References

External links

RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process

Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions

Decision Desk Headquarter Results for Maine

{{U.S. presidential primaries

2016 File:2016 Events Collage.png, From top left, clockwise: Bombed-out buildings in Ankara following the 2016 Turkish coup d'état attempt; the impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff; Damaged houses during the 2016 Nagorno-Karabakh ...

Presidential