Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
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Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting
Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single-station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions. The weather of a particular location can show signs of the approaching tropical cyclone, such as increasing swell, increasing cloudiness, falling barometric pressure, increasing tides, squalls and heavy rainfall. The forces that affect tropical cyclone steering are the higher-latitude westerlies, the subtropical ridge, and the beta effect caused by changes of the coriolis force within fluids such as the atmosphere. Accurate track predictions depend on determining the position and strength of high- and low-pressure areas, and predicting how those areas will migrate during the life of a tropical system. Computer forecast models are used t ...
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NHC Atlantic Forecast Error Trends
NHC could refer to: * Nag Hammadi Codex, or Nag Hammadi Codices (e.g. NHC II, NHC XIII) * New Hanover County, a county in North Carolina * New Haven County, a county in Connecticut. * The National Humanities Center in North Carolina * The National Hurricane Center of the United States * The Naval Historical Center of the United States * National Hamster Council, an organization in the United Kingdom * The National Health Council of the United States * The Natural Health Center in Portland, Oregon * The National Health Commission of the China * The National Housing Conference in Washington, D.C. * The National Hockey Center in St. Cloud, Minnesota * ''N''-Heterocyclic carbene, a persistent carbene, commonly used as ligand in organometallic chemistry * Nearly a Haskell Compiler, for Acorn A5000 personal computers * New Hampshire College, the former name of what is now called Southern New Hampshire University, a private university in Manchester, New Hampshire * No Homers Club (NoHo ...
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Weather Radar
Weather radar, also called weather surveillance radar (WSR) and Doppler weather radar, is a type of radar used to locate precipitation, calculate its motion, and estimate its type (rain, snow, hail etc.). Modern weather radars are mostly pulse-Doppler radars, capable of detecting the motion of rain droplets in addition to the intensity of the precipitation. Both types of data can be analyzed to determine the structure of storms and their potential to cause severe weather. During World War II, radar operators discovered that weather was causing echoes on their screen, masking potential enemy targets. Techniques were developed to filter them, but scientists began to study the phenomenon. Soon after the war, surplus radars were used to detect precipitation. Since then, weather radar has evolved on its own and is now used by national weather services, research departments in universities, and in television stations' weather departments. Raw images are routinely used and speciali ...
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Ernesto2006modelspread
Ernesto, form of the name Ernest in several Romance languages, may refer to: * ''Ernesto'' (novel) (1953), an unfinished autobiographical novel by Umberto Saba, published posthumously in 1975 ** ''Ernesto'' (film), a 1979 Italian drama loosely based on the novel * Hurricane Ernesto (other), several hurricanes or People *Ernesto Abella, Filipino businessman, politician, and writer *Ernesto Aguero (born 1969), Cuban weightlifter *Ernesto Alonso (1917–2007), Mexican actor, director, cinematographer, and producer *Ernesto Amantegui Phumipha (born 1990), Thai footballer *Ernesto Basile (1857–1932), Italian architect *Ernesto Cesàro (1859–1906), Italian mathematician *Ernesto De Curtis (1875–1937), Italian composer *Ernesto Farías (born 1980), Argentine footballer *Ernesto Figueiredo (born 1937), also known as "Ernesto", Portuguese footballer * Ernesto Guevara de la Serna (1928–1967), also known as "El Che" or "Che Guevara" *Ernesto Geisel (1908-1996), Brazilian pre ...
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Wind Shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal wind shear. Vertical wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction with a change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with a change in lateral position for a given altitude. Wind shear is a microscale meteorological phenomenon occurring over a very small distance, but it can be associated with mesoscale or synoptic scale weather features such as squall lines and cold fronts. It is commonly observed near microbursts and downbursts caused by thunderstorms, fronts, areas of locally higher low-level winds referred to as low-level jets, near mountains, radiation inversions that occur due to clear skies and calm winds, buildings, wind turbines, and sailboats. Wind shear has significant effects on the control of a ...
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Troposphere
The troposphere is the first and lowest layer of the atmosphere of the Earth, and contains 75% of the total mass of the planetary atmosphere, 99% of the total mass of water vapour and aerosols, and is where most weather phenomena occur. From the planetary surface of the Earth, the average height of the troposphere is in the tropics; in the middle latitudes; and in the high latitudes of the polar regions in winter; thus the average height of the troposphere is . The term ''troposphere'' derives from the Greek words ''tropos'' (rotating) and '' sphaira'' (sphere) indicating that rotational turbulence mixes the layers of air and so determines the structure and the phenomena of the troposphere. The rotational friction of the troposphere against the planetary surface affects the flow of the air, and so forms the planetary boundary layer (PBL) that varies in height from hundreds of meters up to . The measures of the PBL vary according to the latitude, the landform, and th ...
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Synoptic Scale
The synoptic scale in meteorology (also known as large scale or cyclonic scale) is a horizontal length scale of the order of 1000 kilometers (about 620 miles) or more. This corresponds to a horizontal scale typical of mid-latitude depressions (e.g., extratropical cyclones). Most high- and low-pressure areas seen on weather maps (such as surface weather analyses) are synoptic-scale systems, driven by the location of Rossby waves in their respective hemisphere. Low-pressure areas and their related frontal zones occur on the leading edge of a trough within the Rossby wave pattern, while high-pressure areas form on the back edge of the trough. Most precipitation areas occur near frontal zones. The word ''synoptic'' is derived from the Greek word ('), meaning ''seen together''. The Navier–Stokes equations applied to atmospheric motion can be simplified by scale analysis in the synoptic scale. It can be shown that the main terms in horizontal equations are Coriolis force and p ...
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Central Pacific Hurricane Center
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) of the United States National Weather Service is the official body responsible for tracking and issuing tropical cyclone warnings, watches, advisories, discussions, and statements for the Central Pacific region: from the equator northward, 140°W–180°W, most significantly for Hawai‘i. It is the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for tropical cyclones in this region, and in this capacity is known as RSMC Honolulu. Based in Honolulu, Hawaii, the CPHC is co-located with the National Weather Service's Honolulu forecast office on the campus of the University of Hawaii at Mānoa. The Honolulu forecast office activates the CPHC when tropical cyclones form in, or move into, the Central Pacific region. The CPHC replaced the previous forecaster, the Joint Hurricane Warning Center, starting in the 1970 season. Area of responsibility The CPHC's area of responsibility is the Central Pacific (CP) region, which is an administra ...
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Eye (cyclone)
The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of tropical cyclones. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically in diameter. It is surrounded by the ''eyewall'', a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather and highest winds occur. The cyclone's lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as much as 15 percent lower than the pressure outside the storm. In strong tropical cyclones, the eye is characterized by light winds and clear skies, surrounded on all sides by a towering, symmetric eyewall. In weaker tropical cyclones, the eye is less well defined and can be covered by the central dense overcast, an area of high, thick clouds that show up brightly on satellite imagery. Weaker or disorganized storms may also feature an eyewall that does not completely encircle the eye or have an eye that features heavy rain. In all storms, however, the eye is the location of the storm's minimum barometric pressure—where the atmospheric pr ...
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Storm Surge
A storm surge, storm flood, tidal surge, or storm tide is a coastal flood or tsunami-like phenomenon of rising water commonly associated with low-pressure weather systems, such as cyclones. It is measured as the rise in water level above the normal tidal level, and does not include waves. The main meteorological factor contributing to a storm surge is high-speed wind pushing water towards the coast over a long fetch. Other factors affecting storm surge severity include the shallowness and orientation of the water body in the storm path, the timing of tides, and the atmospheric pressure drop due to the storm. There is a suggestion that climate change may be increasing the hazard of storm surges. Some theorize that as extreme weather becomes more intense and sea level rises due to climate change, storm surge is expected to cause more risk to coastal populations. Communities and governments can adapt by building hard infrastructure, like surge barriers, soft infrastructure, ...
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Bar (tropical Cyclone)
The bar of a mature tropical cyclone is a very dark gray-black layer of cloud that appears to be near to the horizon as seen from an observer preceding the approach of the storm, and is composed primarily of dense stratocumulus clouds. Cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds bearing precipitation follow immediately after the passage of the wall-like bar. Altostratus, cirrostratus and cirrus clouds are usually visible in ascending order above the top of the bar, while the wind direction for an observer facing toward the bar is typically from the left and slightly behind the observer. History The dark layer of clouds on the horizon seen prior to a tropical cyclone's passage over a location was first described in 1687 and the observed phenomenon later published in 1697 by William Dampier while observing a typhoon in the South China Sea during a circumnavigation by pirate ship. These observations led to an improved understanding of the nature of tropical cyclones. The use of "bar" as a term to d ...
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Cyclone
In meteorology, a cyclone () is a large air mass that rotates around a strong center of low atmospheric pressure, counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere as viewed from above (opposite to an anticyclone). Cyclones are characterized by inward-spiraling winds that rotate about a zone of low pressure. The largest low-pressure systems are polar vortices and extratropical cyclones of the largest scale (the synoptic scale). Warm-core cyclones such as tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones also lie within the synoptic scale. Mesocyclones, tornadoes, and dust devils lie within smaller mesoscale. Upper level cyclones can exist without the presence of a surface low, and can pinch off from the base of the tropical upper tropospheric trough during the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere. Cyclones have also been seen on extraterrestrial planets, such as Mars, Jupiter, and Neptune. Cyclogenesis is the process of cyclone formation and ...
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