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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model
A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorology, meteorological data to weather forecasting, forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to numerical weather prediction, calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: tropical cyclone track forecasting, track, intensity, storm surge, and tropical cyclone rainfall climatology, rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ernesto2006modelspread
Ernesto, form of the name Ernest in several Romance languages, may refer to: * Ernesto (novel), ''Ernesto'' (novel) (1953), an unfinished autobiographical novel by Umberto Saba, published posthumously in 1975 ** Ernesto (film), ''Ernesto'' (film), a 1979 Italian drama loosely based on the novel * Hurricane Ernesto (other), several hurricanes or * Ernesto (footballer) (born 1979), Ernesto da Conceição Soares, Cape Verdean footballer People *Ernesto Abella, Filipino businessman, politician, and writer *Ernesto Agard (born 1937), Panamanian basketball player *Ernesto Aguero (born 1969), Cuban weightlifter *Ernesto Alonso (1917–2007), Mexican actor, director, cinematographer, and producer *Ernesto Amantegui Phumipha (born 1990), Thai footballer *Ernesto Basile (1857–1932), Italian architect *Ernesto Cesàro (1859–1906), Italian mathematician *Ernesto De Curtis (1875–1937), Italian composer *Ernesto Farías (born 1980), Argentine footballer *Ernesto Figueiredo (born 19 ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Hurricane Center
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the IERS Reference Meridian, Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the 31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The agency, which is co-located with the National Weather Service Miami, Florida, Miami branch of the National Weather Service, is situated on the campus of Florida International University in University Park, Florida, University Park, Miami, Miami, Florida. The NHC's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) routinely issues marine forecasts, in the form of graphics and high seas forecasts year round, with the Ocean Prediction Center having backup responsibility for this unit. The Technology and Science Branch (TSB) provides technical support for the center, which includes new infusions of technology from ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperature (or ocean surface temperature) is the ocean temperature, temperature of ocean water close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies in the literature and in practice. It is usually between and below the sea surface. Sea surface temperatures greatly modify air masses in the Atmosphere of Earth, Earth's atmosphere within a short distance of the shore. The thermohaline circulation has a major impact on average sea surface temperature throughout most of the world's oceans. Warm sea surface temperatures can develop and Tropical cyclogenesis, strengthen cyclones over the ocean. Tropical cyclones can also cause a cool wake. This is due to turbulent mixing of the upper of the ocean. Sea surface temperature changes during the day. This is like the air above it, but to a lesser degree. There is less variation in sea surface temperature on breezy days than on calm days. Coastal sea surface temperatures can cause offshore winds to generate upwelling ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wind Shear
Wind shear (; also written windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal wind shear. Vertical wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction with a change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with a change in lateral position for a given altitude. Wind shear is a microscale meteorological phenomenon occurring over a very small distance, but it can be associated with mesoscale or synoptic scale weather features such as squall lines and cold fronts. It is commonly observed near microbursts and downbursts caused by thunderstorms, fronts, areas of locally higher low-level winds referred to as low-level jets, near mountains, radiation inversions that occur due to clear skies and calm winds, buildings, wind turbines, and sailboats. Wind shear has significant effects on ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). Operation The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy. It is one of the predominant synoptic scale medium-range models in general use. Principles The GFS model has a finite volume cubed sphere (FV3) dynamical core with an approximate horizontal resolution of 28 km between grid points, which drops to 70 km between grid points for forecasts between one and two weeks. In the vertical, the model is divided into 127 layers and extends to the mesopause (roughly ~80 km). It produces forec ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United States Naval Research Laboratory
The United States Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is the corporate research laboratory for the United States Navy and the United States Marine Corps. Located in Washington, DC, it was founded in 1923 and conducts basic scientific research, applied research, technological development and prototyping. The laboratory's specialties include plasma physics, space physics, materials science, and tactical electronic warfare. NRL is one of the first US government scientific R&D laboratories, having opened in 1923 at the instigation of Thomas Edison, and is currently under the Office of Naval Research. As of 2016, NRL was a Navy Working Capital Fund activity, which means it is not a line-item in the US Federal Budget. Instead of direct funding from Congress, all costs, including overhead, were recovered through sponsor-funded research projects. NRL's research expenditures were approximately $1 billion per year. Research The Naval Research Laboratory conducts a wide variety of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Typhoon
A typhoon is a tropical cyclone that develops between 180° and 100°E in the Northern Hemisphere and which produces sustained hurricane-force winds of at least . This region is referred to as the Northwestern Pacific Basin, accounting for almost one third of the world's tropical cyclones. For organizational purposes, the northern Pacific Ocean is divided into three regions: the eastern (North America to 140°W), central (140°W to 180°), and western (180° to 100°E). The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for tropical cyclone forecasts is in Japan, with other tropical cyclone warning centres for the northwest Pacific in Hawaii (the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), the Philippines, and Hong Kong. Although the RSMC names each system, the main name list itself is coordinated among 18 countries that have territories threatened by typhoons each year. Within most of the northwestern Pacific, there are no official typhoon seasons as tropical cyclones form througho ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecast Skill
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecasting skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. In meteorology, more specifically in weather forecasting, skill measures the superiority of a forecast over a simple historical baseline of past observations. The same forecast methodology can result in different skill scores at different places, or even in the same place for different seasons (e.g., spring weather might be driven by erratic local conditions, whereas winter cold snaps might correlate with observable polar winds). Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecasting skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Geophysical Union
The American Geophysical Union (AGU) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization of Earth, Atmospheric science, atmospheric, Oceanography, ocean, Hydrology, hydrologic, Astronomy, space, and Planetary science, planetary scientists and enthusiasts that according to their website includes 130,000 people (not members). AGU's activities are focused on the organization and dissemination of scientific information in the interdisciplinary and international fields within the Earth and space sciences. The geophysical sciences involve four fundamental areas: atmospheric sciences, atmospheric and ocean sciences; solid-Earth sciences; hydrologic sciences; and space sciences. The organization's headquarters is located on Florida Avenue in Washington, D.C. History The AGU was established in December 1919 by the United States National Research Council, National Research Council (NRC) to represent the United States in the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), and its first chairman w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Centers For Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate, and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to government agencies and private users. The centers form part of the National Weather Service. NCEP consists of nine centers: # Aviation Weather Center provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. # Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the effects climate patterns can have on the nation. # Environmental Modeling Center develops and improves numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad program in partnership with the research community. # National Hurricane Center provides forecasts of the movement and strength of tropical weather systems and issues watches and warnings for the North Atlantic and the E ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Primitive Equations
The primitive equations are a set of nonlinear partial differential equations that are used to approximate global atmosphere, atmospheric flow and are used in most Global climate model, atmospheric models. They consist of three main sets of balance equations: # A ''continuity equation'': Representing the conservation of mass. # ''Conservation of momentum'': Consisting of a form of the Navier–Stokes equations that describe hydrodynamical flow on the surface of a sphere under the assumption that vertical motion is much smaller than horizontal motion (hydrostasis) and that the fluid layer depth is small compared to the radius of the sphere # A ''Conservation of energy, thermal energy equation'': Relating the overall temperature of the system to heat sources and sinks The primitive equations may be linearized to yield Laplace's tidal equations, an eigenvalue problem from which the analytical solution to the latitudinal structure of the flow may be determined. In general, nearly ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Julian Day
The Julian day is a continuous count of days from the beginning of the Julian period; it is used primarily by astronomers, and in software for easily calculating elapsed days between two events (e.g., food production date and sell by date). The Julian period is a chronological interval of 7980 years, derived from three multi-year cycles: the Indiction, Solar, and Lunar cycles. The last year that was simultaneously the beginning of all three cycles was , so that is year 1 of the current Julian period, making AD year of that Period. The next Julian Period begins in the year AD 3268. Historians used the period to identify Julian calendar years within which an event occurred when no such year was given in the historical record, or when the year given by previous historians was incorrect. The Julian day number (JDN) has the same epoch as the Julian period, but counts the number of days since the epoch rather than the number of years since then. Specifically, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
