Roll Yield
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Roll Yield
The roll yield is the difference between the profit or loss of a futures contract and the change in the spot price of the underlying asset of that futures contract. Unlike fixed income or dividend yields, a roll yield does not provide a cash payment, and may not be counted as a profit in certain cases if it accounts for the underlying asset's cost-of-carry. Nonetheless, the roll yield is often characterized as a return that a futures investor capture in addition to the price change of the underlying asset of a futures contract. Source of roll yield The Theory of storage explains roll yield as a combination of storage costs, convenience yield, and asset yield, or a cost-of-carry in aggregate. In a theoretical efficient market equilibrium with no barriers to arbitrage, an investment strategy of investing in a futures contract should be no more or less profitable than an investment strategy of holding the underlying asset and paying its cost-of-carry. If one of these strategies is rel ...
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Futures Contract
In finance, a futures contract (sometimes called a futures) is a standardized legal contract to buy or sell something at a predetermined price for delivery at a specified time in the future, between parties not yet known to each other. The asset transacted is usually a commodity or financial instrument. The predetermined price of the contract is known as the ''forward price''. The specified time in the future when delivery and payment occur is known as the ''delivery date''. Because it derives its value from the value of the underlying asset, a futures contract is a derivative. Contracts are traded at futures exchanges, which act as a marketplace between buyers and sellers. The buyer of a contract is said to be the long position holder and the selling party is said to be the short position holder. As both parties risk their counter-party reneging if the price goes against them, the contract may involve both parties lodging as security a margin of the value of the contract with a ...
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Spot Price
In finance, a spot contract, spot transaction, or simply spot, is a contract of buying or selling a commodity, security or currency for immediate settlement (payment and delivery) on the spot date, which is normally two business days after the trade date. The settlement price (or rate) is called spot price (or spot rate). A spot contract is in contrast with a forward contract or futures contract where contract terms are agreed now but delivery and payment will occur at a future date. Spot prices and future price expectations Depending on the item being traded, spot prices can indicate market expectations of future price movements in different ways. For a security or non-perishable commodity (e.g. silver), the spot price reflects market expectations of future price movements. In theory, the difference in spot and forward prices should be equal to the finance charges, plus any earnings due to the holder of the security, according to the cost of carry model. For example, on a s ...
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Fixed Income
Fixed income refers to any type of investment under which the borrower or issuer is obliged to make payments of a fixed amount on a fixed schedule. For example, the borrower may have to pay interest at a fixed rate once a year and repay the principal amount on maturity. Fixed-income securities — more commonly known as bonds — can be contrasted with equity securities – often referred to as stocks and shares – that create no obligation to pay dividends or any other form of income. Bonds carry a level of legal protections for investors that equity securities do not — in the event of a bankruptcy, bond holders would be repaid after liquidation of assets, whereas shareholders with stock often receive nothing. For a company to grow its business, it often must raise money – for example, to finance an acquisition; buy equipment or land, or invest in new product development. The terms on which investors will finance the company will depend on the risk profile of the company ...
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Dividend
A dividend is a distribution of profits by a corporation to its shareholders. When a corporation earns a profit or surplus, it is able to pay a portion of the profit as a dividend to shareholders. Any amount not distributed is taken to be re-invested in the business (called retained earnings). The current year profit as well as the retained earnings of previous years are available for distribution; a corporation is usually prohibited from paying a dividend out of its capital. Distribution to shareholders may be in cash (usually a deposit into a bank account) or, if the corporation has a dividend reinvestment plan, the amount can be paid by the issue of further shares or by share repurchase. In some cases, the distribution may be of assets. The dividend received by a shareholder is income of the shareholder and may be subject to income tax (see dividend tax). The tax treatment of this income varies considerably between jurisdictions. The corporation does not receive a tax deduct ...
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Yield (finance)
In finance, the yield on a security is a measure of the ex-ante return to a holder of the security. It is one component of return on an investment, the other component being the change in the market price of the security. It is a measure applied to fixed income securities, common stocks, preferred stocks, convertible stocks and bonds, annuities and real estate investments. There are various types of yield, and the method of calculation depends on the particular type of yield and the type of security. Because of these differences, yield comparisons between different types of financial products should be treated with caution. Fixed income securities The coupon rate (or nominal rate) on a fixed income security is the interest that the issuer agrees to pay to the security holder each year, expressed as a percentage of the security's principal amount (par value). The current yield is the ratio of the annual interest (coupon) payment and the bond's market price. The yield to ma ...
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Theory Of Storage
The Theory of Storage describes features observed in commodity markets: When available supplies of the commodity in question are high, and the working inventories of commercial consumers of that commodity are accordingly held to a minimum, * Futures prices tend to be in contango * The volatility of spot and futures prices tend to be low, and futures premiums rise to the full cost of storage When supplies are tight, and purchasing managers build production inventory levels to ensure availability, * Futures prices tend toward backwardation * The volatility of cash and the nearby futures prices rises with respect to that of the more distant futures contracts The theory of storage was originally developed and described by Holbrook Working in 1933.Working, H. 1933, "Price Relations between July and September Wheat Futures at Chicago Since 1885", Wheat Studies of the Food Research Institute. It was extended by Nicholas Kaldor in 1939 (who introduced the notion of convenience yield A c ...
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Convenience Yield
A convenience yield is an implied return on holding inventories. It is an adjustment to the cost of carry in the non- arbitrage pricing formula for forward prices in markets with trading constraints. Let F_ be the forward price of an asset with initial price S_t and maturity T. Suppose that r is the continuously compounded interest rate for one year. Then, the non-arbitrage pricing formula should be F_ = S_t \cdot e^ However, this relationship does not hold in most commodity markets, partly because of the inability of investors and speculators to short the underlying asset, S_t. Instead, there is a correction to the forward pricing formula given by the convenience yield c. Hence F_ = S_t \cdot e^ This makes it possible for backwardation to be observable. Example A trader has observed that the price of six-month (T) gold futures price (F) is $1,300 per troy ounce, whereas the spot price (S) is $1,371 per troy ounce. The (not compounded) borrowing rate for a six-month loa ...
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Market Equilibrium
In economics, economic equilibrium is a situation in which economic forces such as supply and demand are balanced and in the absence of external influences the ( equilibrium) values of economic variables will not change. For example, in the standard text perfect competition, equilibrium occurs at the point at which quantity demanded and quantity supplied are equal. Market equilibrium in this case is a condition where a market price is established through competition such that the amount of goods or services sought by buyers is equal to the amount of goods or services produced by sellers. This price is often called the competitive price or market clearing price and will tend not to change unless demand or supply changes, and quantity is called the "competitive quantity" or market clearing quantity. But the concept of ''equilibrium'' in economics also applies to imperfectly competitive markets, where it takes the form of a Nash equilibrium. Understanding economic equilibriu ...
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Arbitrage
In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price. In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as in statistical arbitrage, it may refer to ''expected'' profit, though losses may occur, and in practice, there are always risks in arbitrage, some minor (such as fluctuation of prices decreasing profit ...
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Real Options Valuation
Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis,Adam Borison (Stanford University)''Real Options Analysis: Where are the Emperor's Clothes?'' (ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions.Campbell, R. Harvey''Identifying real options'' Duke University, 2002. A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. For example, real options valuation could examine the opportunity to invest in the expansion of a firm's factory and the alternative option to sell the factory.Nijssen, E. (2014) Routelegde, 2014. Real options are generally distinguished from conventional financial options in that they are not typically traded as securities, and do not usually involve decisions on an underlying asset that is traded as a financial security. A further distinction is that option holders here, i.e. ...
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Long (finance)
In finance, a long position in a financial instrument means the holder of the position owns a positive amount of the instrument. The holder of the position has the expectation that the financial instrument will increase in value. This is known as a bullish position. Security In terms of a security, such as a stock or a bond, or equivalently ''to be long'' in a security, means the holder of the position owns the security, on the expectation that the security will increase in value, and will profit if the price of the security goes up. ''Going long'' a security is the more conventional practice of investing. Future Going long in a future means the holder of the position is obliged to buy the underlying instrument at the contract price at expiry. The holder of the position will profit if the price of the underlying instrument goes up, as the price he will pay will be less than the market price. Option An options investor goes long in an underlying investment (in technical j ...
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Contango
Contango is a situation where the futures price (or forward price) of a commodity is higher than the ''expected'' spot price of the contract at maturity. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators are "willing to pay more owfor a commodity o be receivedat some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity t that future point This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today." On the other side of the trade, hedgers (commodity producers and commodity holders) are happy to sell futures contracts and accept the higher-than-expected returns. A contango market is also known as a normal market, or carrying-cost market. The opposite market condition to contango is known as backwardation. "A market is 'in backwardation' when the futures price is below the ''expected'' spot price for a particular commodity. This is favorable for inv ...
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