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Randomised Decision Rule
In statistical decision theory, a randomised decision rule or mixed decision rule is a decision rule that associates probabilities with deterministic decision rules. In finite decision problems, randomised decision rules define a ''risk set'' which is the convex hull of the risk points of the nonrandomised decision rules. As nonrandomised alternatives always exist to randomised Bayes rules, randomisation is not needed in Bayesian statistics, although frequentist statistical theory sometimes requires the use of randomised rules to satisfy optimality conditions such as minimax, most notably when deriving confidence intervals and hypothesis tests about discrete probability distributions. A statistical test making use of a randomized decision rule is called a randomized test. Definition and interpretation Let \mathcal D =\ be a set of non-randomised decision rules with associated probabilities p_1, p_2, ..., p_h. Then the randomised decision rule d^* is defined as \sum_^h p_i d_i an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Theory
Decision theory (or the theory of choice; not to be confused with choice theory) is a branch of applied probability theory concerned with the theory of making decisions based on assigning probabilities to various factors and assigning numerical consequences to the outcome. There are three branches of decision theory: # Normative decision theory: Concerned with the identification of optimal decisions, where optimality is often determined by considering an ideal decision-maker who is able to calculate with perfect accuracy and is in some sense fully rational. # Prescriptive decision theory: Concerned with describing observed behaviors through the use of conceptual models, under the assumption that those making the decisions are behaving under some consistent rules. # Descriptive decision theory: Analyzes how individuals actually make the decisions that they do. Decision theory is closely related to the field of game theory and is an interdisciplinary topic, studied by econom ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayes Risk
In estimation theory and decision theory, a Bayes estimator or a Bayes action is an estimator or decision rule that minimizes the posterior expected value of a loss function (i.e., the posterior expected loss). Equivalently, it maximizes the posterior expectation of a utility function. An alternative way of formulating an estimator within Bayesian statistics is maximum a posteriori estimation. Definition Suppose an unknown parameter \theta is known to have a prior distribution \pi. Let \widehat = \widehat(x) be an estimator of \theta (based on some measurements ''x''), and let L(\theta,\widehat) be a loss function, such as squared error. The Bayes risk of \widehat is defined as E_\pi(L(\theta, \widehat)), where the expectation is taken over the probability distribution of \theta: this defines the risk function as a function of \widehat. An estimator \widehat is said to be a ''Bayes estimator'' if it minimizes the Bayes risk among all estimators. Equivalently, the estimator whic ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Linear Programming
Linear programming (LP), also called linear optimization, is a method to achieve the best outcome (such as maximum profit or lowest cost) in a mathematical model whose requirements are represented by linear function#As a polynomial function, linear relationships. Linear programming is a special case of mathematical programming (also known as mathematical optimization). More formally, linear programming is a technique for the mathematical optimization, optimization of a linear objective function, subject to linear equality and linear inequality Constraint (mathematics), constraints. Its feasible region is a convex polytope, which is a set defined as the intersection (mathematics), intersection of finitely many Half-space (geometry), half spaces, each of which is defined by a linear inequality. Its objective function is a real number, real-valued affine function, affine (linear) function defined on this polyhedron. A linear programming algorithm finds a point in the polytope where ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mixed Strategy
In game theory, a player's strategy is any of the options which they choose in a setting where the outcome depends ''not only'' on their own actions ''but'' on the actions of others. The discipline mainly concerns the action of a player in a game affecting the behavior or actions of other players. Some examples of "games" include chess, bridge, poker, monopoly, diplomacy or battleship. A player's strategy will determine the action which the player will take at any stage of the game. In studying game theory, economists enlist a more rational lens in analyzing decisions rather than the psychological or sociological perspectives taken when analyzing relationships between decisions of two or more parties in different disciplines. The strategy concept is sometimes (wrongly) confused with that of a move. A move is an action taken by a player at some point during the play of a game (e.g., in chess, moving white's Bishop a2 to b3). A strategy on the other hand is a complete algorithm for p ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Continuous Uniform Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the continuous uniform distribution or rectangular distribution is a family of symmetric probability distributions. The distribution describes an experiment where there is an arbitrary outcome that lies between certain bounds. The bounds are defined by the parameters, ''a'' and ''b'', which are the minimum and maximum values. The interval can either be closed (e.g. , b or open (e.g. (a, b)). Therefore, the distribution is often abbreviated ''U'' (''a'', ''b''), where U stands for uniform distribution. The difference between the bounds defines the interval length; all intervals of the same length on the distribution's support are equally probable. It is the maximum entropy probability distribution for a random variable ''X'' under no constraint other than that it is contained in the distribution's support. Definitions Probability density function The probability density function of the continuous uniform distribution is: : f(x)=\begin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Binomial Proportion Confidence Interval
In statistics, a binomial proportion confidence interval is a confidence interval for the probability of success calculated from the outcome of a series of success–failure experiments (Bernoulli trials). In other words, a binomial proportion confidence interval is an interval estimate of a success probability ''p'' when only the number of experiments ''n'' and the number of successes ''nS'' are known. There are several formulas for a binomial confidence interval, but all of them rely on the assumption of a binomial distribution. In general, a binomial distribution applies when an experiment is repeated a fixed number of times, each trial of the experiment has two possible outcomes (success and failure), the probability of success is the same for each trial, and the trials are statistically independent. Because the binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution (i.e., not continuous) and difficult to calculate for large numbers of trials, a variety of approximations ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bernoulli Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, the Bernoulli distribution, named after Swiss mathematician Jacob Bernoulli,James Victor Uspensky: ''Introduction to Mathematical Probability'', McGraw-Hill, New York 1937, page 45 is the discrete probability distribution of a random variable which takes the value 1 with probability p and the value 0 with probability q = 1-p. Less formally, it can be thought of as a model for the set of possible outcomes of any single experiment that asks a yes–no question. Such questions lead to outcomes that are boolean-valued: a single bit whose value is success/ yes/true/ one with probability ''p'' and failure/no/ false/zero with probability ''q''. It can be used to represent a (possibly biased) coin toss where 1 and 0 would represent "heads" and "tails", respectively, and ''p'' would be the probability of the coin landing on heads (or vice versa where 1 would represent tails and ''p'' would be the probability of tails). In particular, unfair coins ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Neyman–Pearson Lemma
In statistics, the Neyman–Pearson lemma was introduced by Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson in a paper in 1933. The Neyman-Pearson lemma is part of the Neyman-Pearson theory of statistical testing, which introduced concepts like errors of the second kind, power function, and inductive behavior.The Fisher, Neyman-Pearson Theories of Testing Hypotheses: One Theory or Two?: Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol 88, No 424The Fisher, Neyman-Pearson Theories of Testing Hypotheses: One Theory or Two?: Journal of the American Statistical Association: Vol 88, No 424/ref>Wald: Chapter II: The Neyman-Pearson Theory of Testing a Statistical HypothesisWald: Chapter II: The Neyman-Pearson Theory of Testing a Statistical Hypothesis/ref>The Empire of ChanceThe Empire of Chance/ref> The previous Fisherian theory of significance testing postulated only one hypothesis. By introducing a competing hypothesis, the Neyman-Pearsonian flavor of statistical testing allows investigating the two ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Discrete Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). Examples of random phenomena include the weather conditions at some future date, the height of a randomly selected person, the fraction of male students in a school, the results of a survey to be conducted, etc. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sample space, often denoted by \Omega, is the set of all possible outcomes of a random phe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Null Hypothesis
In scientific research, the null hypothesis (often denoted ''H''0) is the claim that no difference or relationship exists between two sets of data or variables being analyzed. The null hypothesis is that any experimentally observed difference is due to chance alone, and an underlying causative relationship does not exist, hence the term "null". In addition to the null hypothesis, an alternative hypothesis is also developed, which claims that a relationship does exist between two variables. Basic definitions The ''null hypothesis'' and the ''alternative hypothesis'' are types of conjectures used in statistical tests, which are formal methods of reaching conclusions or making decisions on the basis of data. The hypotheses are conjectures about a statistical model of the population, which are based on a sample of the population. The tests are core elements of statistical inference, heavily used in the interpretation of scientific experimental data, to separate scientific claims fr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Likelihood Ratio Test
In statistics, the likelihood-ratio test assesses the goodness of fit of two competing statistical models based on the ratio of their likelihoods, specifically one found by maximization over the entire parameter space and another found after imposing some constraint. If the constraint (i.e., the null hypothesis) is supported by the observed data, the two likelihoods should not differ by more than sampling error. Thus the likelihood-ratio test tests whether this ratio is significantly different from one, or equivalently whether its natural logarithm is significantly different from zero. The likelihood-ratio test, also known as Wilks test, is the oldest of the three classical approaches to hypothesis testing, together with the Lagrange multiplier test and the Wald test. In fact, the latter two can be conceptualized as approximations to the likelihood-ratio test, and are asymptotically equivalent. In the case of comparing two models each of which has no unknown parameters, use o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Permutation Test
A permutation test (also called re-randomization test) is an exact statistical hypothesis test making use of the proof by contradiction. A permutation test involves two or more samples. The null hypothesis is that all samples come from the same distribution H_0: F=G. Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of the test statistic is obtained by calculating all possible values of the test statistic under possible rearrangements of the observed data. Permutation tests are, therefore, a form of resampling. Permutation tests can be understood as surrogate data testing where the surrogate data under the null hypothesis are obtained through permutations of the original data. In other words, the method by which treatments are allocated to subjects in an experimental design is mirrored in the analysis of that design. If the labels are exchangeable under the null hypothesis, then the resulting tests yield exact significance levels; see also exchangeability. Confidence intervals can then ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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