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Overshooting Model
The overshooting model, or the exchange rate overshoot hypothesis, first developed by economist Rudi Dornbusch, is a theoretical explanation for high levels of exchange rate volatility. The key features of the model include the assumptions that goods' prices are sticky, or slow to change, in the short run, but the prices of currencies are flexible, that arbitrage in asset markets holds, via the uncovered interest parity equation, and that expectations of exchange rate changes are "consistent": that is, rational. The most important insight of the model is that adjustment lags in some parts of the economy can induce compensating volatility in others; specifically, when an exogenous variable changes, the short-term effect on the exchange rate can be greater than the long-run effect, so in the short term, the exchange rate ''overshoots'' its new equilibrium long-term value. Dornbusch developed this model back when many economists held the view that ideal markets should reach equilibr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rudi Dornbusch
Rüdiger Dornbusch (June 8, 1942 – July 25, 2002) was a German economist who worked in the United States for most of his career. Early life and education Dornbusch was born in Krefeld in present-day North Rhine-Westphalia. After completing his secondary education at the Gymnasium am Moltkeplatz in Krefeld, he went to study abroad. He received his ''Licence en Sciences Politiques'' from the University of Geneva's Graduate Institute of International Studies in 1966, where he also stayed on for a year as an assistant in economics. He subsequently moved to the United States, where he obtained his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago. Career He briefly worked as a lecturer in the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago. For two years he stayed at the University of Rochester as an assistant professor in the Department of Economics, followed by a year as associate professor of International Economics, again in the Graduate School of Business of the Unive ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exchange Rate
In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro. The exchange rate is also regarded as the value of one country's currency in relation to another currency. For example, an interbank exchange rate of 114 Japanese yen to the United States dollar means that ¥114 will be exchanged for or that will be exchanged for ¥114. In this case it is said that the price of a dollar in relation to yen is ¥114, or equivalently that the price of a yen in relation to dollars is $1/114. Each country determines the exchange rate regime that will apply to its currency. For example, a currency may be floating, pegged (fixed), or a hybrid. Governments can impose certain limits and controls on exchange rates. Countries can also have a strong or weak currency. There is no agreement in the econ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Arbitrage
In economics and finance, arbitrage (, ) is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets; striking a combination of matching deals to capitalise on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price. In principle and in academic use, an arbitrage is risk-free; in common use, as in statistical arbitrage, it may refer to ''expected'' profit, though losses may occur, and in practice, there are always risks in arbitrage, some minor (such as fluctuation of prices decreasing profit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Uncovered Interest Parity
Interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage. Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets. Given foreign exchange market equilibrium, the interest rate parity condition implies that the expected return on domestic assets will equal the exchange rate-adjusted expected return on foreign currency assets. Investors then cannot earn arbitrage profits by borrowing in a country with a lower interest rate, exchanging for foreign currency, and investing in a foreign country with a higher interest rate, due to gains or losses from exchanging back to their domestic currency at maturity. Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: ''uncovere ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rational Expectations
In economics, "rational expectations" are model-consistent expectations, in that agents inside the model A model is an informative representation of an object, person or system. The term originally denoted the plans of a building in late 16th-century English, and derived via French and Italian ultimately from Latin ''modulus'', a measure. Models c ... are assumed to "know the model" and on average take the model's predictions as valid. Rational expectations ensure internal consistency in models involving uncertainty. To obtain consistency within a model, the predictions of future values of economically relevant variables from the model are assumed to be the same as that of the decision-makers in the model, given their information set, the nature of the random processes involved, and model structure. The rational expectations assumption is used especially in many contemporary macroeconomic models. Since most macroeconomic models today study decisions under uncertainty and o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Exogenous Variable
In an economic model, an exogenous variable is one whose measure is determined outside the model and is imposed on the model, and an exogenous change is a change in an exogenous variable.Mankiw, N. Gregory. ''Macroeconomics'', third edition, 1997.Varian, Hal R., ''Microeconomic Analysis'', third edition, 1992.Chiang, Alpha C. ''Fundamental Methods of Mathematical Economics'', third edition, 1984. In contrast, an endogenous variable is a variable whose measure is determined by the model. An endogenous change is a change in an endogenous variable in response to an exogenous change that is imposed upon the model. The term endogeneity in econometrics has a related but distinct meaning. An endogenous random variable is correlated with the error term in the econometric model, while an exogenous variable is not. Examples In the LM model of interest rate determination, the supply of and demand for money determine the interest rate contingent on the level of the money supply, so the mo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Information Asymmetry
In contract theory and economics, information asymmetry deals with the study of decisions in transactions where one party has more or better information than the other. Information asymmetry creates an imbalance of power in transactions, which can sometimes cause the transactions to be inefficient, causing market failure in the worst case. Examples of this problem are adverse selection, moral hazard, and monopolies of knowledge. A common way to visualise information asymmetry is with a scale with one side being the seller and the other the buyer. When the seller has more or better information the transaction will more likely occur in the seller's favour ("the balance of power has shifted to the seller"). An example of this could be when a used car is sold, the seller is likely to have a much better understanding of the car's condition and hence its market value than the buyer, who can only estimate the market value based on the information provided by the seller and their own a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Foreign Exchange Market
The foreign exchange market (Forex, FX, or currency market) is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market. The main participants in this market are the larger international banks. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of multiple types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. Since currencies are always traded in pairs, the foreign exchange market does not set a currency's absolute value but rather determines its relative value by setting the market price of one currency if paid for with another. Ex: USD 1 is worth X CAD, or CHF, or JPY, etc. The foreign exchange market works thro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Effective Exchange Rate
The effective exchange rate is an index that describes the strength of a currency relative to a basket of other currencies. Suppose a country has N trading partners and denote Trade_i and E_i as the trade and exchange rate with country i respectively. Then the effective exchange rate is calculated as: E_ = E_1 \frac + ... + E_N \frac Although typically that basket is trade-weighted, the trade-weighted effective exchange rate index is not the only way to derive a meaningful effective exchange rate index. Ho (2012) proposed a new approach to compiling effective exchange rate indices. It defines the effective exchange rate as the ratio of the "normalized Exchange Value of Currency i against the US dollar" to the normalized exchange value of the "benchmark currency basket" against the US dollar. The US dollar is here used as numeraire for convenience, and since it cancels out, in principle any other currency can be used instead without affecting the results. The benchmark ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity is a no-arbitrage condition representing an equilibrium state under which investors interest rates available on bank deposits in two countries. The fact that this condition does not always hold allows for potential opportunities to earn riskless profits from covered interest arbitrage. Two assumptions central to interest rate parity are capital mobility and perfect substitutability of domestic and foreign assets. Given foreign exchange market equilibrium, the interest rate parity condition implies that the expected return on domestic assets will equal the exchange rate-adjusted expected return on foreign currency assets. Investors then cannot earn arbitrage profits by borrowing in a country with a lower interest rate, exchanging for foreign currency, and investing in a foreign country with a higher interest rate, due to gains or losses from exchanging back to their domestic currency at maturity. Interest rate parity takes on two distinctive forms: ''uncovered ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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