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Outcome Bias
The outcome bias is an error made in evaluating the quality of a decision when the outcome of that decision is already known. Specifically, the outcome effect occurs when the same "behavior produce more ethical condemnation when it happen to produce bad rather than good outcome, even if the outcome is determined by chance." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 08-080. While similar to the hindsight bias, the two phenomena are markedly different. Hindsight bias focuses on memory distortion to favor the actor, while the outcome bias focuses exclusively on weighting the past outcome heavier than other pieces of information in deciding if a past decision was correct. Overview One will often judge a past decision by its ultimate outcome instead of based on the quality of the decision at the time it was made, given what was known at that time. This is an error because no decision-maker ever knows whether or not a calculated risk will turn out for the best. The actual outcome of ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision-making
In psychology, decision-making (also spelled decision making and decisionmaking) is regarded as the Cognition, cognitive process resulting in the selection of a belief or a course of action among several possible alternative options. It could be either Rationality, rational or irrational. The decision-making process is a reasoning process based on assumptions of value (ethics and social sciences), values, preferences and beliefs of the decision-maker. Every decision-making process produces a final choice, which may or may not prompt action. Research about decision-making is also published under the label problem solving, particularly in European psychological research. Overview Decision-making can be regarded as a Problem solving, problem-solving activity yielding a solution deemed to be optimal, or at least satisfactory. It is therefore a process which can be more or less Rationality, rational or Irrationality, irrational and can be based on explicit knowledge, explicit or tacit ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Harvard Business School
Harvard Business School (HBS) is the graduate business school of Harvard University, a private research university in Boston, Massachusetts. It is consistently ranked among the top business schools in the world and offers a large full-time MBA program, management-related doctoral programs, and many executive education programs. It owns Harvard Business Publishing, which publishes business books, leadership articles, case studies, and the monthly ''Harvard Business Review''. It is also home to the Baker Library/Bloomberg Center. History The school was established in 1908. Initially established by the humanities faculty, it received independent status in 1910, and became a separate administrative unit in 1913. The first dean was historian Edwin Francis Gay (1867–1946). Yogev (2001) explains the original concept: :This school of business and public administration was originally conceived as a school for diplomacy and government service on the model of the French '' Ecole des S ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias, also known as the knew-it-all-along phenomenon or creeping determinism, is the common tendency for people to perceive past events as having been more predictable than they actually were. People often believe that after an event has occurred, they would have predicted or perhaps even would have known with a high degree of certainty what the outcome of the event would have been before the event occurred. Hindsight bias may cause distortions of memories of what was known or believed before an event occurred, and is a significant source of overconfidence regarding an individual's ability to predict the outcomes of future events. Examples of hindsight bias can be seen in the writings of historians describing outcomes of battles, physicians recalling clinical trials, and in judicial systems as individuals attribute responsibility on the basis of the supposed predictability of accidents. History The hindsight bias, although it was not yet named, was not a new concept w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Calculated Risk
Calculated Risk may refer to: * Calculated Risk (blog), a finance and economics blog * ''Calculated Risk'' (film), a 1963 British crime thriller film * ''Calculated Risk'' (novel), a 1960 science fiction novel by Charles Eric Maine * '' A Calculated Risk'', a 1992 financial thriller novel by Katherine Neville See also * Risk (other) * Risk appetite * Risk assessment Broadly speaking, a risk assessment is the combined effort of: # identifying and analyzing potential (future) events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment (i.e. hazard analysis); and # making judgments "on the ... * Risk management {{disambiguation ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
The Ends Justify The Means
In ethical philosophy, consequentialism is a class of normative, teleological ethical theories that holds that the consequences of one's conduct are the ultimate basis for judgment about the rightness or wrongness of that conduct. Thus, from a consequentialist standpoint, a morally right act (or omission from acting) is one that will produce a good outcome. Consequentialism, along with eudaimonism, falls under the broader category of teleological ethics, a group of views which claim that the moral value of any act consists in its tendency to produce things of intrinsic value.Teleological Ethics " ''''. via ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Psychological Experiment
Experimental psychology refers to work done by those who apply Experiment, experimental methods to psychological study and the underlying processes. Experimental psychologists employ Research participant, human participants and Animal testing, animal subjects to study a great many topics, including (among others) Perception, sensation & perception, memory, cognition, learning, motivation, emotion; Developmental psychology, developmental processes, social psychology, and the Neuroscience, neural substrates of all of these. History Early experimental psychology Wilhelm Wundt Experimental psychology emerged as a modern academic discipline in the 19th century when Wilhelm Wundt introduced a mathematical and experimental approach to the field. Wundt founded the first psychology laboratory in Leipzig, Germany. Other experimental psychologists, including Hermann Ebbinghaus and Edward Titchener, included introspection in their experimental methods. Charles Bell Charles ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Moral Luck
Moral luck describes circumstances whereby a moral agent is assigned moral blame or praise for an action or its consequences, even if it is clear that said agent did not have full control over either the action or its consequences. This term, introduced by Bernard Williams, has been developed, along with its significance to a coherent moral theory, by Williams and Thomas Nagel in their respective essays on the subject. Responsibility and voluntarism Broadly speaking, human beings tend to correlate, at least intuitively, responsibility and voluntary action. Thus, the most blame is assigned to persons for their actions and the consequences they entail when we have good cause to believe that both: * the action was performed voluntarily and without outside coercion * the agent understood the full range of the consequences of their decisions and actions, as could have reasonably been foreseen either at or prior to the time that the action was performed. Conversely, there is a tenden ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Deontology
In moral philosophy, deontological ethics or deontology (from Greek: + ) is the normative ethical theory that the morality of an action should be based on whether that action itself is right or wrong under a series of rules and principles, rather than based on the consequences of the action. It is sometimes described as duty-, obligation-, or rule-based ethics. Waller, Bruce N. 2005. ''Consider Ethics: Theory, Readings, and Contemporary Issues''. New York: Pearson Longman. p. 23. Deontological ethics is commonly contrasted to consequentialism, virtue ethics, and pragmatic ethics. In this terminology, action is more important than the consequences. The term ''deontological'' was first used to describe the current, specialised definition by C. D. Broad in his 1930 book, ''Five Types of Ethical Theory''. Older usage of the term goes back to Jeremy Bentham, who coined it prior to 1816 as a synonym of ''dicastic'' or ''censorial ethics'' (i.e., ethics based on judgement). The mor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Teleology
Teleology (from and )Partridge, Eric. 1977''Origins: A Short Etymological Dictionary of Modern English'' London: Routledge, p. 4187. or finalityDubray, Charles. 2020 912Teleology" In ''The Catholic Encyclopedia'' 14. New York: Robert Appleton Company. Retrieved 3 May 2020. – via ''New Advent'', transcribed by D. J. Potter is a reason or an explanation for something which serves as a function of its end, its purpose, or its goal, as opposed to something which serves as a function of its cause. A purpose that is imposed by human use, such as the purpose of a fork to hold food, is called ''extrinsic''. ''Natural teleology,'' common in classical philosophy, though controversial today, contends that natural entities also have ''intrinsic'' purposes, regardless of human use or opinion. For instance, Aristotle claimed that an acorn's intrinsic ''telos'' is to become a fully grown oak tree. Though ancient atomists rejected the notion of natural teleology, teleological accounts of non ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Consequentialism
In ethical philosophy, consequentialism is a class of normative, teleological ethical theories that holds that the consequences of one's conduct are the ultimate basis for judgment about the rightness or wrongness of that conduct. Thus, from a consequentialist standpoint, a morally right act (or omission from acting) is one that will produce a good outcome. Consequentialism, along with eudaimonism, falls under the broader category of teleological ethics, a group of views which claim that the moral value of any act consists in its tendency to produce things of intrinsic value.Teleological Ethics " ''''. via ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ethical
Ethics or moral philosophy is a branch of philosophy that "involves systematizing, defending, and recommending concepts of right and wrong behavior".''Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy'' The field of ethics, along with aesthetics, concerns matters of value; these fields comprise the branch of philosophy called axiology. Ethics seeks to resolve questions of human morality by defining concepts such as good and evil, right and wrong, virtue and vice, justice and crime. As a field of intellectual inquiry, moral philosophy is related to the fields of moral psychology, descriptive ethics, and value theory. Three major areas of study within ethics recognized today are: # Meta-ethics, concerning the theoretical meaning and reference of moral propositions, and how their truth values (if any) can be determined; # Normative ethics, concerning the practical means of determining a moral course of action; # Applied ethics, concerning what a person is obligated (or permitted) to do in a s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Group Attribution Error
The group attribution error refers to people's tendency to believe either # the characteristics of an individual group member are reflective of the group as a whole, or # a group's decision outcome must reflect the preferences of individual group members, even when external information is available suggesting otherwise. The group attribution error shares an attribution bias analogous to the fundamental attribution error. Rather than focusing on individual's behavior, it relies on group outcomes and attitudes as its main basis for conclusions. Typology Type I To demonstrate the first form of group attribution error, research participants are typically given case studies about individuals who are members of defined groups (such as members of a particular occupation, nationality, or ethnicity), and then take surveys to determine their views of the groups as a whole. Often the participants may be broken up into separate test groups, some of which are given statistics about the group ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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