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Autoregressive–moving-average Model
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, ''Hypothesis testing in time series analysis'', and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins. Given a time series of data X_t, the ARMA model is a tool for understanding and, perhaps, predicting future values in this series. The AR part involves regressing the variable on its own lagged (i.e., past) values. The MA part involves modeling the error term as a linear combination of error terms occurring contemporaneously and at various times in the past. The model is usually referred to as the ARMA(''p'',''q'') model where ''p'' is the order of the AR part and ''q'' is the order of the MA part (as defined b ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistics
Statistics (from German language, German: ''wikt:Statistik#German, Statistik'', "description of a State (polity), state, a country") is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of statistical survey, surveys and experimental design, experiments.Dodge, Y. (2006) ''The Oxford Dictionary of Statistical Terms'', Oxford University Press. When census data cannot be collected, statisticians collect data by developing specific experiment designs and survey sample (statistics), samples. Representative sampling as ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Laurent Series
In mathematics, the Laurent series of a complex function f(z) is a representation of that function as a power series which includes terms of negative degree. It may be used to express complex functions in cases where a Taylor series expansion cannot be applied. The Laurent series was named after and first published by Pierre Alphonse Laurent in 1843. Karl Weierstrass may have discovered it first in a paper written in 1841, but it was not published until after his death.. Definition The Laurent series for a complex function f(z) about a point c is given by f(z) = \sum_^\infty a_n(z-c)^n, where a_n and c are constants, with a_n defined by a line integral that generalizes Cauchy's integral formula: a_n =\frac\oint_\gamma \frac \, dz. The path of integration \gamma is counterclockwise around a Jordan curve enclosing c and lying in an annulus A in which f(z) is holomorphic (analytic). The expansion for f(z) will then be valid anywhere inside the annulus. The annulus is shown in red ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mathematica
Wolfram Mathematica is a software system with built-in libraries for several areas of technical computing that allow machine learning, statistics, symbolic computation, data manipulation, network analysis, time series analysis, NLP, optimization, plotting functions and various types of data, implementation of algorithms, creation of user interfaces, and interfacing with programs written in other programming languages. It was conceived by Stephen Wolfram, and is developed by Wolfram Research of Champaign, Illinois. The Wolfram Language is the programming language used in ''Mathematica''. Mathematica 1.0 was released on June 23, 1988 in Champaign, Illinois and Santa Clara, California. __TOC__ Notebook interface Wolfram Mathematica (called ''Mathematica'' by some of its users) is split into two parts: the kernel and the front end. The kernel interprets expressions (Wolfram Language code) and returns result expressions, which can then be displayed by the front end. The origin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
R (programming Language)
R is a programming language for statistical computing and graphics supported by the R Core Team and the R Foundation for Statistical Computing. Created by statisticians Ross Ihaka and Robert Gentleman, R is used among data miners, bioinformaticians and statisticians for data analysis and developing statistical software. Users have created packages to augment the functions of the R language. According to user surveys and studies of scholarly literature databases, R is one of the most commonly used programming languages used in data mining. R ranks 12th in the TIOBE index, a measure of programming language popularity, in which the language peaked in 8th place in August 2020. The official R software environment is an open-source free software environment within the GNU package, available under the GNU General Public License. It is written primarily in C, Fortran, and R itself (partially self-hosting). Precompiled executables are provided for various operating systems. R ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Least Squares
The method of least squares is a standard approach in regression analysis to approximate the solution of overdetermined systems (sets of equations in which there are more equations than unknowns) by minimizing the sum of the squares of the residuals (a residual being the difference between an observed value and the fitted value provided by a model) made in the results of each individual equation. The most important application is in data fitting. When the problem has substantial uncertainties in the independent variable (the ''x'' variable), then simple regression and least-squares methods have problems; in such cases, the methodology required for fitting errors-in-variables models may be considered instead of that for least squares. Least squares problems fall into two categories: linear or ordinary least squares and nonlinear least squares, depending on whether or not the residuals are linear in all unknowns. The linear least-squares problem occurs in statistical regressio ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Information Criterion
In statistics, the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) or Schwarz information criterion (also SIC, SBC, SBIC) is a criterion for model selection among a finite set of models; models with lower BIC are generally preferred. It is based, in part, on the likelihood function and it is closely related to the Akaike information criterion (AIC). When fitting models, it is possible to increase the likelihood by adding parameters, but doing so may result in overfitting. Both BIC and AIC attempt to resolve this problem by introducing a penalty term for the number of parameters in the model; the penalty term is larger in BIC than in AIC for sample sizes greater than 7. The BIC was developed by Gideon E. Schwarz and published in a 1978 paper, where he gave a Bayesian argument for adopting it. Definition The BIC is formally defined as : \mathrm = k\ln(n) - 2\ln(\widehat L). \ where *\hat L = the maximized value of the likelihood function of the model M, i.e. \hat L=p(x\mid\widehat\theta, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Akaike Information Criterion
The Akaike information criterion (AIC) is an estimator of prediction error and thereby relative quality of statistical models for a given set of data. Given a collection of models for the data, AIC estimates the quality of each model, relative to each of the other models. Thus, AIC provides a means for model selection. AIC is founded on information theory. When a statistical model is used to represent the process that generated the data, the representation will almost never be exact; so some information will be lost by using the model to represent the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher the quality of that model. In estimating the amount of information lost by a model, AIC deals with the trade-off between the goodness of fit of the model and the simplicity of the model. In other words, AIC deals with both the risk of overfitting and the risk of underfitting. The Akaike information criterion ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autocorrelation Function
Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies. It is often used in signal processing for analyzing functions or series of values, such as time domain signals. Different fields of study define autocorrelation differently, and not all of these definitions are equivalent. In some fields, the term is used interchangeably with autocovariance. Unit root processes, trend-stationary processes, autoregressive processes, and moving average processes are specific forms of processes with autocorrelation. ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Partial Autocorrelation Function
In time series analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) gives the partial correlation of a stationary time series with its own lagged values, regressed the values of the time series at all shorter lags. It contrasts with the autocorrelation function, which does not control for other lags. This function plays an important role in data analysis aimed at identifying the extent of the lag in an autoregressive (AR) model. The use of this function was introduced as part of the Box–Jenkins approach to time series modelling, whereby plotting the partial autocorrelative functions one could determine the appropriate lags p in an AR (p) model or in an extended ARIMA (p,d,q) model. Definition Given a time series z_t, the partial autocorrelation of lag k, denoted \phi_, is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ with the linear dependence of z_t on z_ through z_ removed. Equivalently, it is the autocorrelation between z_t and z_ that is not accounted for by lags 1 through k-1, ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Gwilym M
Gwilym is a Welsh given name and surname, related to William, Guillaume, and others in a number of other languages. Given name: * Dafydd ap Gwilym (1315–1350), Welsh poet * Eurfyl ap Gwilym (born 1944), Welsh Plaid Cymru politician * Gwilym ab Ieuan Hen (1440–1480), Welsh language poet *Gwilym Davies (minister) CBE (1879–1955), Welsh Baptist minister * Gwilym Edwards (1881–1963), Welsh Presbyterian minister *Gwilym Ellis Lane Owen (1922–1982), Welsh philosopher * Gwilym Emyr Owen III (born 1960), American singer/songwriter * Gwilym Gibbons (born 1971), British arts leader * Gwilym Jenkins (1933–1982), British statistician and systems engineer * Gwilym Jones (born 1947), British Conservative politician *Gwilym Kessey (1919–1986), Australian cricketer * Gwilym Lee (born 1983), British Actor * Gwilym Lloyd George, 1st Viscount Tenby (1894–1967), politician and UK cabinet minister * Gwilym Thomas Mainwaring (born 1941), Welsh rugby player * Gwilym Owen Williams (1913†... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
George Box
George Edward Pelham Box (18 October 1919 – 28 March 2013) was a British statistician, who worked in the areas of quality control, time-series analysis, design of experiments, and Bayesian inference. He has been called "one of the great statistical minds of the 20th century". Education and early life He was born in Gravesend, Kent, England. Upon entering university he began to study chemistry, but was called up for service before finishing. During World War II, he performed experiments for the British Army exposing small animals to poison gas. To analyze the results of his experiments, he taught himself statistics from available texts. After the war, he enrolled at University College London and obtained a bachelor's degree in mathematics and statistics. He received a PhD from the University of London in 1953, under the supervision of Egon Pearson. Career and research From 1948 to 1956, Box worked as a statistician for Imperial Chemical Industries (ICI). Whi ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Lag Operator
In time series analysis, the lag operator (L) or backshift operator (B) operates on an element of a time series to produce the previous element. For example, given some time series :X= \ then : L X_t = X_ for all t > 1 or similarly in terms of the backshift operator ''B'': B X_t = X_ for all t > 1. Equivalently, this definition can be represented as : X_t = L X_ for all t \geq 1 The lag operator (as well as backshift operator) can be raised to arbitrary integer powers so that : L^ X_ = X_ and : L^k X_ = X_. Lag polynomials Polynomials of the lag operator can be used, and this is a common notation for ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models. For example, : \varepsilon_t = X_t - \sum_^p \varphi_i X_ = \left(1 - \sum_^p \varphi_i L^i\right) X_t specifies an AR(''p'') model. A polynomial of lag operators is called a lag polynomial so that, for example, the ARMA model can be concisely specified as : \varphi (L) X_t = \theta (L) \varepsilon_t where \varphi (L) ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
