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Autoregressive
In statistics, econometrics and signal processing, an autoregressive (AR) model is a representation of a type of random process; as such, it is used to describe certain time-varying processes in nature, economics, etc. The autoregressive model specifies that the output variable depends linearly on its own previous values and on a stochastic term (an imperfectly predictable term); thus the model is in the form of a stochastic difference equation (or recurrence relation which should not be confused with differential equation). Together with the moving-average (MA) model, it is a special case and key component of the more general autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure; it is also a special case of the vector autoregressive model (VAR), which consists of a system of more than one interlocking stochastic difference equation in more than one evolving random vari ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autoregressive–moving-average Model
In the statistical analysis of time series, autoregressive–moving-average (ARMA) models provide a parsimonious description of a (weakly) stationary stochastic process in terms of two polynomials, one for the autoregression (AR) and the second for the moving average (MA). The general ARMA model was described in the 1951 thesis of Peter Whittle, ''Hypothesis testing in time series analysis'', and it was popularized in the 1970 book by George E. P. Box and Gwilym Jenkins. Given a time series of data X_t, the ARMA model is a tool for understanding and, perhaps, predicting future values in this series. The AR part involves regressing the variable on its own lagged (i.e., past) values. The MA part involves modeling the error term as a linear combination of error terms occurring contemporaneously and at various times in the past. The model is usually referred to as the ARMA(''p'',''q'') model where ''p'' is the order of the AR part and ''q'' is the order of the MA part (as define ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average
In statistics and econometrics, and in particular in time series analysis, an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a generalization of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model. Both of these models are fitted to time series data either to better understand the data or to predict future points in the series ( forecasting). ARIMA models are applied in some cases where data show evidence of non-stationarity in the sense of mean (but not variance/ autocovariance), where an initial differencing step (corresponding to the "integrated" part of the model) can be applied one or more times to eliminate the non-stationarity of the mean function (i.e., the trend). When the seasonality shows in a time series, the seasonal-differencing could be applied to eliminate the seasonal component. Since the ARMA model, according to the Wold's decomposition theorem, is theoretically sufficient to describe a regular (a.k.a. purely nondeterministic) wide-sense stationary ti ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Moving-average Model
In time series analysis, the moving-average model (MA model), also known as moving-average process, is a common approach for modeling univariate time series. The moving-average model specifies that the output variable is cross-correlated with a non-identical to itself random-variable. Together with the autoregressive (AR) model, the moving-average model is a special case and key component of the more general ARMA and ARIMA models of time series, which have a more complicated stochastic structure. The moving-average model should not be confused with the moving average, a distinct concept despite some similarities. Contrary to the AR model, the finite MA model is always stationary. Definition The notation MA(''q'') refers to the moving average model of order ''q'': : X_t = \mu + \varepsilon_t + \theta_1 \varepsilon_ + \cdots + \theta_q \varepsilon_ = \mu + \sum_^q \theta_i \varepsilon_ + \varepsilon_, where \mu is the mean of the series, the \theta_1,...,\theta_q are ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Autocorrelation Function
Autocorrelation, sometimes known as serial correlation in the discrete time case, is the correlation of a signal with a delayed copy of itself as a function of delay. Informally, it is the similarity between observations of a random variable as a function of the time lag between them. The analysis of autocorrelation is a mathematical tool for finding repeating patterns, such as the presence of a periodic signal obscured by noise, or identifying the missing fundamental frequency in a signal implied by its harmonic frequencies. It is often used in signal processing for analyzing functions or series of values, such as time domain signals. Different fields of study define autocorrelation differently, and not all of these definitions are equivalent. In some fields, the term is used interchangeably with autocovariance. Unit root processes, trend-stationary processes, autoregressive processes, and moving average processes are specific forms of processes with autocorrelation. Au ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wide-sense Stationary
In mathematics and statistics, a stationary process (or a strict/strictly stationary process or strong/strongly stationary process) is a stochastic process whose unconditional joint probability distribution does not change when shifted in time. Consequently, parameters such as mean and variance also do not change over time. If you draw a line through the middle of a stationary process then it should be flat; it may have 'seasonal' cycles, but overall it does not trend up nor down. Since stationarity is an assumption underlying many statistical procedures used in time series analysis, non-stationary data are often transformed to become stationary. The most common cause of violation of stationarity is a trend in the mean, which can be due either to the presence of a unit root or of a deterministic trend. In the former case of a unit root, stochastic shocks have permanent effects, and the process is not mean-reverting. In the latter case of a deterministic trend, the process is cal ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Backshift Operator
In time series analysis, the lag operator (L) or backshift operator (B) operates on an element of a time series to produce the previous element. For example, given some time series :X= \ then : L X_t = X_ for all t > 1 or similarly in terms of the backshift operator ''B'': B X_t = X_ for all t > 1. Equivalently, this definition can be represented as : X_t = L X_ for all t \geq 1 The lag operator (as well as backshift operator) can be raised to arbitrary integer powers so that : L^ X_ = X_ and : L^k X_ = X_. Lag polynomials Polynomials of the lag operator can be used, and this is a common notation for ARMA (autoregressive moving average) models. For example, : \varepsilon_t = X_t - \sum_^p \varphi_i X_ = \left(1 - \sum_^p \varphi_i L^i\right) X_t specifies an AR(''p'') model. A polynomial of lag operators is called a lag polynomial so that, for example, the ARMA model can be concisely specified as : \varphi (L) X_t = \theta (L) \varepsilon_t where \varphi (L) ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cauchy Distribution
The Cauchy distribution, named after Augustin Cauchy, is a continuous probability distribution. It is also known, especially among physicists, as the Lorentz distribution (after Hendrik Lorentz), Cauchy–Lorentz distribution, Lorentz(ian) function, or Breit–Wigner distribution. The Cauchy distribution f(x; x_0,\gamma) is the distribution of the -intercept of a ray issuing from (x_0,\gamma) with a uniformly distributed angle. It is also the distribution of the ratio of two independent normally distributed random variables with mean zero. The Cauchy distribution is often used in statistics as the canonical example of a " pathological" distribution since both its expected value and its variance are undefined (but see below). The Cauchy distribution does not have finite moments of order greater than or equal to one; only fractional absolute moments exist., Chapter 16. The Cauchy distribution has no moment generating function. In mathematics, it is closely related to the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Spectral Density
The power spectrum S_(f) of a time series x(t) describes the distribution of power into frequency components composing that signal. According to Fourier analysis, any physical signal can be decomposed into a number of discrete frequencies, or a spectrum of frequencies over a continuous range. The statistical average of a certain signal or sort of signal (including noise) as analyzed in terms of its frequency content, is called its spectrum. When the energy of the signal is concentrated around a finite time interval, especially if its total energy is finite, one may compute the energy spectral density. More commonly used is the power spectral density (or simply power spectrum), which applies to signals existing over ''all'' time, or over a time period large enough (especially in relation to the duration of a measurement) that it could as well have been over an infinite time interval. The power spectral density (PSD) then refers to the spectral energy distribution that would ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Udny Yule
George Udny Yule FRS (18 February 1871 – 26 June 1951), usually known as Udny Yule, was a British statistician, particularly known for the Yule distribution. Personal life Yule was born at Beech Hill, a house in Morham near Haddington, Scotland and died in Cambridge, England. He came from an established Scottish family composed of army officers, civil servants, scholars, and administrators. His father, Sir George Udny Yule (1813–1886) was a brother of the noted orientalist Sir Henry Yule (1820–1889). His great uncle was the botanist John Yule. In 1899, Yule married May Winifred Cummings. The marriage was annulled in 1912, producing no children.annulment: Yates, 1952 Education and teaching Udny Yule was educated at Winchester College and at the age of 16 at University College London where he read engineering. After a year in Bonn doing research in experimental physics under Heinrich Rudolf Hertz, Yule returned to University College in 1893 to work as a demonst ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Method Of Moments (statistics)
In statistics, the method of moments is a method of estimation of population parameters. The same principle is used to derive higher moments like skewness and kurtosis. It starts by expressing the population moments (i.e., the expected values of powers of the random variable under consideration) as functions of the parameters of interest. Those expressions are then set equal to the sample moments. The number of such equations is the same as the number of parameters to be estimated. Those equations are then solved for the parameters of interest. The solutions are estimates of those parameters. The method of moments was introduced by Pafnuty Chebyshev in 1887 in the proof of the central limit theorem. The idea of matching empirical moments of a distribution to the population moments dates back at least to Pearson. Method Suppose that the problem is to estimate k unknown parameters \theta_, \theta_2, \dots, \theta_k characterizing the distribution f_W(w; \theta) of the random ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
