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Words Of Estimative Probability
Words of estimative probability (WEP or WEPs) are terms used by intelligence analysts in the production of analytic reports to convey the likelihood of a future event occurring. A well-chosen WEP gives a decision maker a clear and unambiguous estimate upon which to base a decision. Ineffective WEPs are vague or misleading about the likelihood of an event. An ineffective WEP places the decision maker in the role of the analyst, increasing the likelihood of poor or snap decision making. Some intelligence and policy failures appear to be related to the imprecise use of estimative words. History Intelligence In 1964 Sherman Kent, one of the first contributors to a formal discipline of intelligence analysis addressed the problem of misleading expressions of odds in National Intelligence Estimates (NIE). In ''Words of Estimative Probability,'' Kent distinguished between ‘poets’ (those preferring wordy probabilistic statements) from ‘mathematicians’ (those preferring quantitative ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Intelligence Analysis
Intelligence analysis is the application of individual and collective cognitive methods to weigh data and test hypotheses within a secret socio-cultural context. The descriptions are drawn from what may only be available in the form of deliberately deceptive information; the analyst must correlate the similarities among deceptions and extract a common truth. Although its practice is found in its purest form inside national intelligence agencies, its methods are also applicable in fields such as business intelligence or competitive intelligence. Overview Intelligence analysis is a way of reducing the ambiguity of highly ambiguous situations. Many analysts prefer the middle-of-the-road explanation, rejecting high or low probability explanations. Analysts may use their own standard of proportionality as to the risk acceptance of the opponent, rejecting that the opponent may take an extreme risk to achieve what the analyst regards as a minor gain. The analyst must avoid the special ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with probability. Although there are several different probability interpretations, probability theory treats the concept in a rigorous mathematical manner by expressing it through a set of axioms. Typically these axioms formalise probability in terms of a probability space, which assigns a measure taking values between 0 and 1, termed the probability measure, to a set of outcomes called the sample space. Any specified subset of the sample space is called an event. Central subjects in probability theory include discrete and continuous random variables, probability distributions, and stochastic processes (which provide mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic or uncertain processes or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in a random fashion). Although it is not possible to perfectly predict random events, much can be said about their behavior. Two major results in probability ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Weasel Words
A weasel word, or anonymous authority, is an slang, informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that something specific and meaningful has been said, when in fact only a vague or ambiguous claim has been communicated. Examples include the phrases "some people say", "it is thought", and "researchers believe". Using weasel words may allow one to later deny any specific meaning if the statement is challenged, because the statement was never specific in the first place. Weasel words can be a form of wikt:tergiversate, tergiversation and may be used in advertising, (popular) science, opinion pieces and political statements to mislead or disguise a biased view or unsubstantiated claim. Weasel words can harshen or over-state a controversial statement. An example of this is using terms like "somewhat" or "in most respects", which make a sentence more ambiguous than it would be without them. Origin The expression ''weasel word'' may have derived from the egg-eatin ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is an intergovernmental body of the United Nations. Its job is to advance scientific knowledge about climate change caused by human activities. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) established the IPCC in 1988. The United Nations endorsed the creation of the IPCC later that year. It has a secretariat in Geneva, Switzerland, hosted by the WMO. It has 195 member states who govern the IPCC. The member states elect a bureau of scientists to serve through an assessment cycle. A cycle is usually six to seven years. The bureau selects experts to prepare IPCC reports. It draws the experts from nominations by governments and observer organisations. The IPCC has three working groups and a task force, which carry out its scientific work. The IPCC informs governments about the state of knowledge of climate change. It does this by examining all the relevant scientific literature ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses
The analysis of competing hypotheses (ACH) is a methodology for evaluating multiple competing hypotheses for observed data. It was developed by Richards (Dick) J. Heuer, Jr., a 45-year veteran of the Central Intelligence Agency, in the 1970s for use by the Agency. ACH is used by analysts in various fields who make judgments that entail a high risk of error in reasoning. ACH aims to help an analyst overcome, or at least minimize, some of the cognitive limitations that make prescient intelligence analysis so difficult to achieve. ACH was a step forward in intelligence analysis methodology, but it was first described in relatively informal terms. Producing the best available information from uncertain data remains the goal of researchers, tool-builders, and analysts in industry, academia and government. Their domains include data mining, cognitive psychology and visualization, probability and statistics, etc. Abductive reasoning is an earlier concept with similarities to ACH. Pro ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Mercyhurst College Institute For Intelligence Studies
The Ridge College of Intelligence Studies and Applied Sciences at Mercyhurst University (RIAP), located on the campus of Mercyhurst University in Erie, Pennsylvania, offers undergraduate and graduate studies programs in intelligence analysis. The program also offers graduate certificates in Applied Intelligence, Counterintelligence, and Law Enforcement Intelligence. The Intelligence Studies program "promotes the study of Intelligence in higher academic settings, while seeking to identify, promote, and employ best practices in the study and application of intelligence studies throughout its various disciplines (national security, law enforcement, business intelligence and academia)." History The Institute for Intelligence Studies (IIS) was founded in February 2004 via help from a grant from the U.S. Department of Education's Fund for the Improvement of Post-Secondary Education (FIPSE). It was named after Tom Ridge, an Erie native and the first Secretary of Homeland Security. For a do ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Weasel Word
A weasel word, or anonymous authority, is an informal term for words and phrases aimed at creating an impression that something specific and meaningful has been said, when in fact only a vague or ambiguous claim has been communicated. Examples include the phrases "some people say", "it is thought", and "researchers believe". Using weasel words may allow one to later deny any specific meaning if the statement is challenged, because the statement was never specific in the first place. Weasel words can be a form of tergiversation and may be used in advertising, (popular) science, opinion pieces and political statements to mislead or disguise a biased view or unsubstantiated claim. Weasel words can harshen or over-state a controversial statement. An example of this is using terms like "somewhat" or "in most respects", which make a sentence more ambiguous than it would be without them. Origin The expression ''weasel word'' may have derived from the egg-eating habits of weasels. An ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Intelligence Council
The National Intelligence Council (NIC), established in 1979 and reporting to the Director of National Intelligence, bridges the United States Intelligence Community (IC) with policy makers in the United States. The NIC produces the "Global Trends" report every four years beginning in 1997, for the incoming President of the United States. Their work is based on intelligence from a wide variety of sources that includes experts in academia and the private sector. NIC documents and reports which are used by policymakers, include the National Intelligence Estimate and the Global Trends reports delivered every four years. The NIC's goal is to provide policymakers with the best available information, that is unvarnished, unbiased and without regard to whether the analytic judgments conform to current U.S. policy. One of the NIC's most important analytical projects is a Global Trends report produced for the incoming US president, which is usually delivered to the incoming president ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
DI Yardstick HD
Di or DI may refer to: Arts and media Music * Di, a tone in the solfège ascending chromatic scale existing between Do and Re * dizi (instrument) or di, a Chinese transverse flute * ''D.I.'' (band), a punk band from Southern California ** ''D.I.'' (EP), a 1983 EP by the same band above Other media * ''The D.I.'', 1957 military film by Jack Webb * '' Dagens Industri'', a Swedish financial newspaper * DI.FM, an internet radio service Businesses and organisations * Defence Intelligence, a UK military intelligence agency * Defensa Interior, an anti-Franco militant anarchist group in 1960s Spain * Deseret Industries, an LDS thrift store * Desert Inn, a former casino in Las Vegas * Direction Italy, a liberal-conservative political party in Italy * Dirgantara Indonesia, an Indonesian aircraft company * Discovery Institute, an intelligent design advocacy group * Norwegian Air UK, a UK based airline (IATA designator) * DynCorp International, a major United States defense contractor ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Center For Defense Information
The Center for Defense Information (CDI) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization based in Washington, D.C. It specialized in analyzing and advising on military matters. History The Center for Defense Information was founded in 1971 by an independent group of retired military officers including Adm. Gene La Rocque and Adm. Eugene Carroll. In 2005, the Center for Defense Information expanded by creating the Straus Military Reform Project for the purpose of promoting military reform in the Pentagon and Congress. Winslow T. Wheeler, a former Capitol Hill staffer and General Accounting Office assistant director, directs the Straus Military Reform Project at CDI. The Project was launched by a matching grant from Philip A. Straus Jr. Straus and his family have long supported activities at CDI and continue to be major supporters of the Project's endeavors. In May 2012, CDI joined the Project on Government Oversight. After the 2008 United States elections, CDI released ''America’s ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bruce G
The English language name Bruce arrived in Scotland with the Normans, from the place name Brix, Manche in Normandy, France, meaning "the willowlands". Initially promulgated via the descendants of king Robert the Bruce (1274−1329), it has been a Scottish surname since medieval times; it is now a common given name. The variant ''Lebrix'' and ''Le Brix'' are French variations of the surname. Actors * Bruce Bennett (1906–2007), American actor and athlete * Bruce Boxleitner (born 1950), American actor * Bruce Campbell (born 1958), American actor, director, writer, producer and author * Bruce Davison (born 1946), American actor and director * Bruce Dern (born 1936), American actor * Bruce Gray (1936–2017), American-Canadian actor * Bruce Greenwood (born 1956), Canadian actor and musician * Bruce Herbelin-Earle (born 1998), English-French actor and model * Bruce Jones (born 1953), English actor * Bruce Kirby (1925–2021), American actor * Bruce Lee (1940–1973), martial art ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Bayesian Analysis
Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. Bayesian inference is an important technique in statistics, and especially in mathematical statistics. Bayesian updating is particularly important in the dynamic analysis of a sequence of data. Bayesian inference has found application in a wide range of activities, including science, engineering, philosophy, medicine, sport, and law. In the philosophy of decision theory, Bayesian inference is closely related to subjective probability, often called "Bayesian probability". Introduction to Bayes' rule Formal explanation Bayesian inference derives the posterior probability as a consequence of two antecedents: a prior probability and a "likelihood function" derived from a statistical model for the observed data. Bayesian inference computes the posterior probability according to Bayes' theorem: P(H\ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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