Volatility (finance)
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Volatility (finance)
In finance, volatility (usually denoted by ''σ'') is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns. Historic volatility measures a time series of past market prices. Implied volatility looks forward in time, being derived from the market price of a market-traded derivative (in particular, an option). Volatility terminology Volatility as described here refers to the actual volatility, more specifically: * actual current volatility of a financial instrument for a specified period (for example 30 days or 90 days), based on historical prices over the specified period with the last observation the most recent price. * actual historical volatility which refers to the volatility of a financial instrument over a specified period but with the last observation on a date in the past **near synonymous is realized volatility, the square root of the realized variance, in turn calculated using the sum of squ ...
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Finance
Finance is the study and discipline of money, currency and capital assets. It is related to, but not synonymous with economics, the study of production, distribution, and consumption of money, assets, goods and services (the discipline of financial economics bridges the two). Finance activities take place in financial systems at various scopes, thus the field can be roughly divided into personal, corporate, and public finance. In a financial system, assets are bought, sold, or traded as financial instruments, such as currencies, loans, bonds, shares, stocks, options, futures, etc. Assets can also be banked, invested, and insured to maximize value and minimize loss. In practice, risks are always present in any financial action and entities. A broad range of subfields within finance exist due to its wide scope. Asset, money, risk and investment management aim to maximize value and minimize volatility. Financial analysis is viability, stability, and profitability asse ...
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Stable Distribution
In probability theory, a distribution is said to be stable if a linear combination of two independent random variables with this distribution has the same distribution, up to location and scale parameters. A random variable is said to be stable if its distribution is stable. The stable distribution family is also sometimes referred to as the Lévy alpha-stable distribution, after Paul Lévy, the first mathematician to have studied it.B. Mandelbrot, The Pareto–Lévy Law and the Distribution of Income, International Economic Review 1960 https://www.jstor.org/stable/2525289 Of the four parameters defining the family, most attention has been focused on the stability parameter, \alpha (see panel). Stable distributions have 0 < \alpha \leq 2, with the upper bound corresponding to the , and \alpha=1 to the
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Black–Scholes Model
The Black–Scholes or Black–Scholes–Merton model is a mathematical model for the dynamics of a financial market containing derivative investment instruments. From the parabolic partial differential equation in the model, known as the Black–Scholes equation, one can deduce the Black–Scholes formula, which gives a theoretical estimate of the price of European-style options and shows that the option has a ''unique'' price given the risk of the security and its expected return (instead replacing the security's expected return with the risk-neutral rate). The equation and model are named after economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes; Robert C. Merton, who first wrote an academic paper on the subject, is sometimes also credited. The main principle behind the model is to hedge the option by buying and selling the underlying asset in a specific way to eliminate risk. This type of hedging is called "continuously revised delta hedging" and is the basis of more complicated ...
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Option (finance)
In finance, an option is a contract which conveys to its owner, the ''holder'', the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specific quantity of an underlying asset or instrument at a specified strike price on or before a specified date, depending on the style of the option. Options are typically acquired by purchase, as a form of compensation, or as part of a complex financial transaction. Thus, they are also a form of asset and have a valuation that may depend on a complex relationship between underlying asset price, time until expiration, market volatility, the risk-free rate of interest, and the strike price of the option. Options may be traded between private parties in ''over-the-counter'' (OTC) transactions, or they may be exchange-traded in live, public markets in the form of standardized contracts. Definition and application An option is a contract that allows the holder the right to buy or sell an underlying asset or financial instrument at a specified strike ...
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Compound Annual Growth Rate
Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a business and investing specific term for the geometric progression ratio that provides a constant rate of return over the time period. CAGR is not an accounting term, but it is often used to describe some element of the business, for example revenue, units delivered, registered users, etc. CAGR dampens the effect of volatility of periodic returns that can render arithmetic means irrelevant. It is particularly useful to compare growth rates from various data sets of common domain such as revenue growth of companies in the same industry or sector. CAGR is equivalent to the more generic exponential growth rate when the exponential growth interval is one year. Formula CAGR is defined as: :\mathrm(t_0,t_n) = \left( \frac \right)^\frac - 1 where V(t_0) is the initial value, V(t_n) is the end value, and t_n - t_0 is the number of years. Actual or normalized values may be used for calculation as long as they retain the same mathematical propor ...
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Meme
A meme ( ) is an idea, behavior, or style that spreads by means of imitation from person to person within a culture and often carries symbolic meaning representing a particular phenomenon or theme. A meme acts as a unit for carrying cultural ideas, symbols, or practices, that can be transmitted from one mind to another through writing, speech, gestures, rituals, or other imitable phenomena with a mimicked theme. Supporters of the concept regard memes as cultural analogues to genes in that they self-replicate, mutate, and respond to selective pressures. In popular language, a meme may refer to an Internet meme, typically an image, that is remixed, copied, and circulated in a shared cultural experience online. Proponents theorize that memes are a viral phenomenon that may evolve by natural selection in a manner analogous to that of biological evolution. Memes do this through the processes of variation, mutation, competition, and inheritance, each of which influences a meme's ...
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Covfefe
Covfefe ( ) is a misspelling, widely presumed to be a typo, that Donald Trump used in a viral tweet when he was U.S. President. It instantly became an Internet meme. Six minutes after midnight ( EDT) on May 31, 2017, Trump tweeted, "Despite the constant negative press covfefe". He deleted the tweet six hours later but implied that its wording was intentional. Most media outlets presumed that he had meant to type "coverage". White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer stated, "I think the President and a small group of people know exactly what he meant." "Covfefe" tweet and public response The tweet attracted intense attention in the news and on social media, quickly becoming a viral phenomenon. Both the word and tweet produced a variety of cultural, economic, and social influences. For example, the Volfefe index (for "volatility" and "covfefe"), created by JPMorgan Chase in 2019, measured the impact of President Trump's tweets on the U.S. bond yields. "Covfefe" was one of Trum ...
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Volfefe Index
The Volfefe Index was a stock market index of volatility in market sentiment for US Treasury bonds caused by tweets by former President Donald Trump. ''Bloomberg News'' observed Volfefe was created due to the statistical significance of Trump tweets on bond prices. ''ABC News Online'' posited Volfefe could help analyze interest rate risk in the face of "unpredictable" activity on social media by Trump. Etymology The name "Volfefe" is a portmanteau of ''volatility'' and the "''covfefe''" tweet by Trump. Creation Volfefe was launched by JPMorgan Chase on September 9, 2019. Methods In forming the basis of the methodology behind Volfefe, JPMorgan Chase used software to analyse the corpus of Trump's tweets. 14,000 tweets were used in the analysis to form the initial projections for their software. Their analysts determined that there were direct correlations between tweets and subsequent market movements. These market movements were most notably evidenced when the tweet specific ...
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Twitter
Twitter is an online social media and social networking service owned and operated by American company Twitter, Inc., on which users post and interact with 280-character-long messages known as "tweets". Registered users can post, like, and 'Reblogging, retweet' tweets, while unregistered users only have the ability to read public tweets. Users interact with Twitter through browser or mobile Frontend and backend, frontend software, or programmatically via its APIs. Twitter was created by Jack Dorsey, Noah Glass, Biz Stone, and Evan Williams (Internet entrepreneur), Evan Williams in March 2006 and launched in July of that year. Twitter, Inc. is based in San Francisco, California and has more than 25 offices around the world. , more than 100 million users posted 340 million tweets a day, and the service handled an average of 1.6 billion Web search query, search queries per day. In 2013, it was one of the ten List of most popular websites, most-visited websites and has been de ...
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Donald Trump
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. Trump graduated from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania with a bachelor's degree in 1968. He became president of his father's real estate business in 1971 and renamed it The Trump Organization. He expanded the company's operations to building and renovating skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, and golf courses. He later started side ventures, mostly by licensing his name. From 2004 to 2015, he co-produced and hosted the reality television series ''The Apprentice (American TV series), The Apprentice''. Trump and his businesses have been involved in more than 4,000 state and federal legal actions, including six bankruptcies. Trump's political positions have been described as populist, protectionist, isolationist, and nationalist. He won the 2016 United States presidential election as the Repu ...
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US President
The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces. The power of the presidency has grown substantially since the first president, George Washington, took office in 1789. While presidential power has ebbed and flowed over time, the presidency has played an increasingly strong role in American political life since the beginning of the 20th century, with a notable expansion during the presidency of Franklin D. Roosevelt. In contemporary times, the president is also looked upon as one of the world's most powerful political figures as the leader of the only remaining global superpower. As the leader of the nation with the largest economy by nominal GDP, the president possesses significant domestic and international hard and soft power. Article II of the Constitution establi ...
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JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company headquartered in New York City and incorporated in Delaware. As of 2022, JPMorgan Chase is the largest bank in the United States, the world's largest bank by market capitalization, and the fifth largest bank in the world in terms of total assets, with total assets of US$3.774 trillion. Additionally, JPMorgan Chase is ranked 24th on the Fortune 500 list of the largest United States corporations by total revenue. It is considered a systemically important bank by the Financial Stability Board. As a " Bulge Bracket" bank, it is a major provider of various investment banking and financial services. It is one of America's Big Four banks, along with Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. JPMorgan Chase is considered to be a universal bank and a custodian bank. The J.P. Morgan brand is used by the investment banking, asset management, private banking, wealth man ...
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