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Value Of Information
Value of information (VOI or VoI) is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay for information prior to making a decision. Similar terms VoI is sometimes distinguished into value of perfect information, also called value of clairvoyance (VoC), and value of imperfect information. They are closely related to the widely known expected value of perfect information (EVPI) and expected value of sample information (EVSI). Note that VoI is not necessarily equal to "value of decision situation with perfect information" - "value of current decision situation" as commonly understood. Definitions Simple A simple example best illustrates the concept: Consider the decision situation with one decision, for example deciding on a 'Vacation Activity'; and one uncertainty, for example what will the 'Weather Condition' be? But we will only know the 'Weather Condition' after we have decided and begun the 'Vacation Activity'. :* The Value of perfect information on ''Weather Condition'' ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Clairvoyance
Clairvoyance (; ) is the magical ability to gain information about an object, person, location, or physical event through extrasensory perception. Any person who is claimed to have such ability is said to be a clairvoyant () ("one who sees clearly"). Claims for the existence of paranormal and psychic abilities such as clairvoyance have not been supported by scientific evidence. Carroll, Robert Todd. (2003)"Clairvoyance" Retrieved 2014-04-30. Parapsychology explores this possibility, but the existence of the paranormal is not accepted by the scientific community. The scientific community widely considers parapsychology, including the study of clairvoyance, a pseudoscience. Usage Pertaining to the ability of clear-sightedness, clairvoyance refers to the paranormal ability to see persons and events that are distant in time or space. It can be divided into roughly three classes: precognition, the ability to perceive or predict future events, retrocognition, the ability to see pa ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Tree
A decision tree is a decision support tool that uses a tree-like model of decisions and their possible consequences, including chance event outcomes, resource costs, and utility. It is one way to display an algorithm that only contains conditional control statements. Decision trees are commonly used in operations research, specifically in decision analysis, to help identify a strategy most likely to reach a goal, but are also a popular tool in machine learning. Overview A decision tree is a flowchart-like structure in which each internal node represents a "test" on an attribute (e.g. whether a coin flip comes up heads or tails), each branch represents the outcome of the test, and each leaf node represents a class label (decision taken after computing all attributes). The paths from root to leaf represent classification rules. In decision analysis, a decision tree and the closely related influence diagram are used as a visual and analytical decision support tool, where t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Information Economics
Information economics or the economics of information is the branch of microeconomics that studies how information and information systems affect an economy and economic decisions. One application considers information embodied in certain types of commodities that are "expensive to produce but cheap to reproduce." Samuelson, Paul A., and William D. Nordhaus (2001). Economics, p.194. Examples include computer software (e.g., Microsoft Windows), pharmaceuticals, and technical books. Once information is recorded "on paper, in a computer, or on a compact disc, it can be reproduced and used by a second person essentially for free." Without the basic research, initial production of high-information commodities may be too unprofitable to market, a type of market failure. Government subsidization of basic research has been suggested as a way to mitigate the problem. The subject of "information economics" is treated under ''Journal of Economic Literature'' classification code JEL D8 †... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Information Theory
Information theory is the scientific study of the quantification (science), quantification, computer data storage, storage, and telecommunication, communication of information. The field was originally established by the works of Harry Nyquist and Ralph Hartley, in the 1920s, and Claude Shannon in the 1940s. The field is at the intersection of probability theory, statistics, computer science, statistical mechanics, information engineering (field), information engineering, and electrical engineering. A key measure in information theory is information entropy, entropy. Entropy quantifies the amount of uncertainty involved in the value of a random variable or the outcome of a random process. For example, identifying the outcome of a fair coin flip (with two equally likely outcomes) provides less information (lower entropy) than specifying the outcome from a roll of a dice, die (with six equally likely outcomes). Some other important measures in information theory are mutual informat ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Value Of Control
The value of control is a quantitative measure of the value of controlling the outcome of an uncertain variable. Decision analysis provides a means for calculating the value of both perfect and imperfect control. The former value, informally known as the value of wizardry, is an upper bound for the latter. Obtaining meaningful value-of-control measurements requires an awareness of important restrictions (concerning the nature of free will and the meaning of counterfactual statements) on the validity of this kind of analysis. See also *Value of information Value of information (VOI or VoI) is the amount a decision maker would be willing to pay for information prior to making a decision. Similar terms VoI is sometimes distinguished into value of perfect information, also called value of clairvoyance ( ... * Wizard Valuation (finance) Free will {{finance-stub ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Influence Diagram
Influence or influencer may refer to: *Social influence, in social psychology, influence in interpersonal relationships **Minority influence, when the minority affect the behavior or beliefs of the majority *Influencer marketing, through individuals that have influence over potential buyers Science and technology * Sphere of influence (astrodynamics), the region around a celestial body in which it is the primary gravitational influence on orbiting objects *Sphere of influence (black hole), a region around a black hole in which the gravity of the black hole dominates that of the host galaxy's bulge Politics *Undue influence, in contract law, where one person takes advantage of a position of power over another person *Sphere of influence, in political science, an area over which a state or organization has some indirect control * Agent of influence, an agent of some stature who uses his or her position to influence public opinion or decision making to produce results beneficial to ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Value Of Structural Health Information
The value of structural health information is the expected utility gain of a built environment system by information provided by structural health monitoring (SHM). The quantification of the value of structural health information is based on decision analysis adapted to built environment engineering. Background The value of structural health information takes basis in the framework of the decision analysis and the value of information analysis as introduced by Raiffa and Schlaifer. and adapted to civil engineering by Benjamin and Cornell. Decision theory itself is based upon the expected utility hypothesis by Von Neumann and Morgenstern. The concepts for the value of structural health information in built environment engineering were first formulated by Pozzi and Der Kiureghian and Faber and Thöns. Formulation The value of structural health information is quantified with a normative decision analysis Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodo ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Expected Value Of Sample Information
In decision theory, the expected value of sample information (EVSI) is the expected increase in utility that a decision-maker could obtain from gaining access to a sample (statistics), sample of additional observations before making a decision. The additional information obtained from the sample (statistics), sample may allow them to make a more informed, and thus better, decision, thus resulting in an increase in expected utility. EVSI attempts to estimate what this improvement would be before seeing actual sample data; hence, EVSI is a form of what is known as ''preposterior analysis''. The use of EVSI in decision theory was popularized by Robert Schlaifer and Howard Raiffa in the 1960s. Formulation Let : \begin d\in D & \mbox D \\ x\in X & \mbox X \\ z \in Z & \mbox n \mbox \langle z_1,z_2,..,z_n \rangle \\ U(d,x) & \mbox d \mbox x \\ p(x) & \mbox x \\ p(z, x) & \mbox z \end It is common (but not essential) in EVSI scenarios for Z_i=X, p(z, x)=\prod p(z_i, x) and \int z p( ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Expected Value Of Including Uncertainty
In decision theory and quantitative policy analysis, the expected value of including uncertainty (EVIU) is the expected difference in the value of a decision based on a probabilistic analysis versus a decision based on an analysis that ignores uncertainty. Background Decisions must be made every day in the ubiquitous presence of uncertainty. For most day-to-day decisions, various heuristics are used to act reasonably in the presence of uncertainty, often with little thought about its presence. However, for larger high-stakes decisions or decisions in highly public situations, decision makers may often benefit from a more systematic treatment of their decision problem, such as through quantitative analysis or decision analysis. When building a quantitative decision model, a model builder identifies various relevant factors, and encodes these as ''input variables''. From these inputs, other quantities, called ''result variables'', can be computed; these provide information for t ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Expected Value Of Perfect Information
In decision theory, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) is the price that one would be willing to pay in order to gain access to perfect information. A common discipline that uses the EVPI concept is health economics. In that context and when looking at a decision of whether to adopt a new treatment technology, there is always some degree of uncertainty surrounding the decision, because there is always a chance that the decision turns out to be wrong. The expected value of perfect information analysis tries to measure the expected cost of that uncertainty, which “can be interpreted as the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), since perfect information can eliminate the possibility of making the wrong decision” at least from a theoretical perspective. Equation The problem is modeled with a payoff matrix ''Rij'' in which the row index ''i'' describes a choice that must be made by the player, while the column index ''j'' describes a random variable that the ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Decision Analysis
Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision; for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected-utility axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision; and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker, and other corporate and non-corporate stakeholders. History In 1931, mathematical philosopher Frank Ramsey pioneered the idea of subjective probability as a representation of an individual’s beliefs or uncertainties. Then, in the 1940s, mathematician John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern developed an axiomatic basis for utility theory as a way of expressing an individual ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Game Tree
In the context of Combinatorial game theory, which typically studies sequential games with perfect information, a game tree is a graph representing all possible game states within such a game. Such games include well-known ones such as chess, checkers, Go, and tic-tac-toe. This can be used to measure the complexity of a game, as it represents all the possible ways a game can pan out. Due to the large game trees of complex games such as chess, algorithms that are designed to play this class of games will use partial game trees, which makes computation feasible on modern computers. Various methods exist to solve game trees. If a complete game tree can be generated, a deterministic algorithm, such as backward induction or retrograde analysis can be used. Randomized algorithms and minimax algorithms such as MCTS can be used in cases where a complete game tree is not feasible. Understanding the game tree To better understand the game tree, it can be thought of as a technique for an ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
