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Tropical Cyclone Forecast Model
A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem. Track models did not show forecast skill when compared to statistical models until th ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Ernesto2006modelspread
Ernesto, form of the name Ernest in several Romance languages, may refer to: * ''Ernesto'' (novel) (1953), an unfinished autobiographical novel by Umberto Saba, published posthumously in 1975 ** ''Ernesto'' (film), a 1979 Italian drama loosely based on the novel * Hurricane Ernesto (other), several hurricanes or People *Ernesto Abella, Filipino businessman, politician, and writer *Ernesto Aguero (born 1969), Cuban weightlifter *Ernesto Alonso (1917–2007), Mexican actor, director, cinematographer, and producer *Ernesto Amantegui Phumipha (born 1990), Thai footballer *Ernesto Basile (1857–1932), Italian architect *Ernesto Cesàro (1859–1906), Italian mathematician *Ernesto De Curtis (1875–1937), Italian composer *Ernesto Farías (born 1980), Argentine footballer *Ernesto Figueiredo (born 1937), also known as "Ernesto", Portuguese footballer * Ernesto Guevara de la Serna (1928–1967), also known as "El Che" or "Che Guevara" *Ernesto Geisel (1908-1996), Brazilian pre ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
25th Parallel North
The 25th parallel north is a circle of latitude that is 25 degrees north of the Earth's equatorial plane. It crosses Africa, Asia, the Indian Ocean, the Pacific Ocean, North America and the Atlantic Ocean. The northernmost section of the border between Mauritania and Mali is defined by the parallel. At this latitude the sun is visible for 13 hours, 42 minutes during the summer solstice and 10 hours, 35 minutes during the winter solstice. Around the world Starting at the Prime Meridian and heading eastwards, the parallel 25° north passes through: : See also *24th parallel north The 24th parallel north is a circle of latitude that is 24 degrees north of the Earth's equatorial plane, about north of the Tropic of Cancer. It is the line which demarcates boundary between Pakistan and India in the general area of Rann of K ... * 26th parallel north References {{geographical coordinates, state=collapsed n25 Mali–Mauritania border ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecasting
Tropical cyclone rainfall forecasting involves using scientific models and other tools to predict the precipitation expected in tropical cyclones such as hurricanes and typhoons. Knowledge of tropical cyclone rainfall climatology is helpful in the determination of a tropical cyclone rainfall forecast. More rainfall falls in advance of the center of the cyclone than in its wake. The heaviest rainfall falls within its central dense overcast and eyewall. Slow moving tropical cyclones, like Hurricane Danny and Hurricane Wilma, can lead to the highest rainfall amounts due to prolonged heavy rains over a specific location. However, vertical wind shear leads to decreased rainfall amounts, as rainfall is favored downshear and slightly left of the center and the upshear side is left devoid of rainfall. The presence of hills or mountains near the coast, as is the case across much of Mexico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, much of Central America, Madagascar, Réunion, China, and Japan ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Navy Operational Global Prediction System
An atmospheric model is a mathematical model constructed around the full set of primitive dynamical equations which govern atmospheric motions. It can supplement these equations with parameterizations for turbulent diffusion, radiation, moist processes (clouds and precipitation), heat exchange, soil, vegetation, surface water, the kinematic effects of terrain, and convection. Most atmospheric models are numerical, i.e. they discretize equations of motion. They can predict microscale phenomena such as tornadoes and boundary layer eddies, sub-microscale turbulent flow over buildings, as well as synoptic and global flows. The horizontal domain of a model is either ''global'', covering the entire Earth, or ''regional'' (''limited-area''), covering only part of the Earth. The different types of models run are thermotropic, barotropic, hydrostatic, and nonhydrostatic. Some of the model types make assumptions about the atmosphere which lengthens the time steps used and increases com ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Sea Surface Temperature
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of ''surface'' varies according to the measurement method used, but it is between and below the sea surface. Air masses in the Earth's atmosphere are highly modified by sea surface temperatures within a short distance of the shore. Localized areas of heavy snow can form in bands downwind of warm water bodies within an otherwise cold air mass. Warm sea surface temperatures are known to be a cause of tropical cyclogenesis over the Earth's oceans. Tropical cyclones can also cause a cool wake, due to turbulent mixing of the upper of the ocean. SST changes diurnally, like the air above it, but to a lesser degree. There is less SST variation on breezy days than on calm days. In addition, ocean currents such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), can affect SST's on multi-decadal time scales, a major impact results from the global thermohaline ci ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Wind Shear
Wind shear (or windshear), sometimes referred to as wind gradient, is a difference in wind speed and/or direction over a relatively short distance in the atmosphere. Atmospheric wind shear is normally described as either vertical or horizontal wind shear. Vertical wind shear is a change in wind speed or direction with a change in altitude. Horizontal wind shear is a change in wind speed with a change in lateral position for a given altitude. Wind shear is a microscale meteorological phenomenon occurring over a very small distance, but it can be associated with mesoscale or synoptic scale weather features such as squall lines and cold fronts. It is commonly observed near microbursts and downbursts caused by thunderstorms, fronts, areas of locally higher low-level winds referred to as low-level jets, near mountains, radiation inversions that occur due to clear skies and calm winds, buildings, wind turbines, and sailboats. Wind shear has significant effects on the control of a ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Global Forecast System
The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS). Operation The mathematical model is run four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The forecast skill generally decreases with time (as with any numerical weather prediction model) and for longer term forecasts, only the larger scales retain significant accuracy. It is one of the predominant synoptic scale medium-range models in general use. Principles The GFS model is a FV3 model with an approximate horizontal resolution of 13 km for the days 0-16 days. In the vertical, the model is divided into 127 layers and extends to the mesopause (roughly ~80 km), and temporally, it produces forecast output every hour for the first 120 hours, three hourly through day 10 and 12 hourly through day 16. The outp ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
United States Naval Research Laboratory
The United States Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is the corporate research laboratory for the United States Navy and the United States Marine Corps. It was founded in 1923 and conducts basic scientific research, applied research, technological development and prototyping. The laboratory's specialties include plasma physics, space physics, materials science, and tactical electronic warfare. NRL is one of the first US government scientific R&D laboratories, having opened in 1923 at the instigation of Thomas Edison, and is currently under the Office of Naval Research. As of 2016, NRL was a United States Navy Working Capital Fund, Navy Working Capital Fund activity, which means it is not a line-item in the US Federal Budget. Instead of direct funding from Congress, all costs, including overhead, were recovered through sponsor-funded research projects. NRL's research expenditures were approximately $1 billion per year. Research The Naval Research Laboratory conducts a wide v ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Typhoon
A typhoon is a mature tropical cyclone that develops between 180° and 100°E in the Northern Hemisphere. This region is referred to as the Northwestern Pacific Basin, and is the most active tropical cyclone basin on Earth, accounting for almost one-third of the world's annual tropical cyclones. For organizational purposes, the northern Pacific Ocean is divided into three regions: the eastern (North America to 140°W), central (140°W to 180°), and western (180° to 100°E). The Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) for tropical cyclone forecasts is in Japan, with other tropical cyclone warning centers for the northwest Pacific in Hawaii (the Joint Typhoon Warning Center), the Philippines, and Hong Kong. Although the RSMC names each system, the main name list itself is coordinated among 18 countries that have territories threatened by typhoons each year. Within most of the northwestern Pacific, there are no official typhoon seasons as tropical cyclones form thr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Forecast Skill
In the fields of forecasting and prediction, forecast skill or prediction skill is any measure of the accuracy and/or degree of association of prediction to an observation or estimate of the actual value of what is being predicted (formally, the predictand); it may be quantified as a skill score. In meteorology, more specifically in weather forecasting, skill measures the superiority of a forecast over a simple historical baseline of past observations. The same forecast methodology can result in different skill scores at different places, or even in the same place for different seasons (e.g., spring weather might be driven by erratic local conditions, whereas winter cold snaps might correlate with observable polar winds). Weather forecast skill is often presented in the form of seasonal geographical maps. Forecast skill for single-value forecasts (i.e., time series of a scalar quantity) is commonly represented in terms of metrics such as correlation, root mean squared error, mea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
American Geophysical Union
The American Geophysical Union (AGU) is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization of Earth, atmospheric, ocean, hydrologic, space, and planetary scientists and enthusiasts that according to their website includes 130,000 people (not members). AGU's activities are focused on the organization and dissemination of scientific information in the interdisciplinary and international fields within the Earth and space sciences. The geophysical sciences involve four fundamental areas: atmospheric and ocean sciences; solid-Earth sciences; hydrologic sciences; and space sciences. The organization's headquarters is located on Florida Avenue in Washington, D.C. History The AGU was established in December 1919 by the National Research Council (NRC) to represent the United States in the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), and its first chairman was William Bowie of the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey (USCGS). For more than 50 years, it operated as an unincorporated affili ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
National Centers For Environmental Prediction
The United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) delivers national and global weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses to its Partners and External User Communities. These products and services are based on a service-science legacy and respond to user needs to protect life and property, enhance that nation's economy and support the nation's growing need for environmental information. The centers form part of the National Weather Service. There are nine centers: # Aviation Weather Center provides aviation warnings and forecasts of hazardous flight conditions at all levels within domestic and international air space. # Climate Prediction Center monitors and forecasts short-term climate fluctuations and provides information on the effects climate patterns can have on the nation. # Environmental Modeling Center develops and improves numerical weather, climate, hydrological and ocean prediction through a broad progr ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
