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Tail Dependence
In probability theory, the tail dependence of a pair of random variables is a measure of their comovements in the tails of the distributions. The concept is used in extreme value theory. Random variables that appear to exhibit no correlation can show tail dependence in extreme deviations. For instance, it is a stylized fact of stock returns that they commonly exhibit tail dependence. Definition The lower tail dependence is defined as : \lambda_\ell = \lim_ \operatorname(X_2 \le F_2^(q) \mid X_1 \le F_1^(q)). where F^(q)= \, that is, the inverse of the cumulative probability distribution function for ''q''. The upper tail dependence is defined analogously as : \lambda_u = \lim_ \operatorname(X_2 > F_2^(q) \mid X_1 > F_1^(q)). See also * Correlation In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of associ ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Random Variable
A random variable (also called random quantity, aleatory variable, or stochastic variable) is a mathematical formalization of a quantity or object which depends on random events. It is a mapping or a function from possible outcomes (e.g., the possible upper sides of a flipped coin such as heads H and tails T) in a sample space (e.g., the set \) to a measurable space, often the real numbers (e.g., \ in which 1 corresponding to H and -1 corresponding to T). Informally, randomness typically represents some fundamental element of chance, such as in the roll of a dice; it may also represent uncertainty, such as measurement error. However, the interpretation of probability is philosophically complicated, and even in specific cases is not always straightforward. The purely mathematical analysis of random variables is independent of such interpretational difficulties, and can be based upon a rigorous axiomatic setup. In the formal mathematical language of measure theory, a random var ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Probability Distribution
In probability theory and statistics, a probability distribution is the mathematical function that gives the probabilities of occurrence of different possible outcomes for an experiment. It is a mathematical description of a random phenomenon in terms of its sample space and the probabilities of events (subsets of the sample space). For instance, if is used to denote the outcome of a coin toss ("the experiment"), then the probability distribution of would take the value 0.5 (1 in 2 or 1/2) for , and 0.5 for (assuming that the coin is fair). Examples of random phenomena include the weather conditions at some future date, the height of a randomly selected person, the fraction of male students in a school, the results of a survey to be conducted, etc. Introduction A probability distribution is a mathematical description of the probabilities of events, subsets of the sample space. The sample space, often denoted by \Omega, is the set of all possible outcomes of a random phe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Extreme Value Theory
Extreme value theory or extreme value analysis (EVA) is a branch of statistics dealing with the extreme deviations from the median of probability distributions. It seeks to assess, from a given ordered sample of a given random variable, the probability of events that are more extreme than any previously observed. Extreme value analysis is widely used in many disciplines, such as structural engineering, finance, earth sciences, traffic prediction, and geological engineering. For example, EVA might be used in the field of hydrology to estimate the probability of an unusually large flooding event, such as the 100-year flood. Similarly, for the design of a breakwater, a coastal engineer would seek to estimate the 50-year wave and design the structure accordingly. Data analysis Two main approaches exist for practical extreme value analysis. The first method relies on deriving block maxima (minima) series as a preliminary step. In many situations it is customary and convenient to e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cumulative Probability Distribution Function
In probability theory and statistics, the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of a real-valued random variable X, or just distribution function of X, evaluated at x, is the probability that X will take a value less than or equal to x. Every probability distribution supported on the real numbers, discrete or "mixed" as well as continuous, is uniquely identified by an ''upwards continuous'' ''monotonic increasing'' cumulative distribution function F : \mathbb R \rightarrow ,1/math> satisfying \lim_F(x)=0 and \lim_F(x)=1. In the case of a scalar continuous distribution, it gives the area under the probability density function from minus infinity to x. Cumulative distribution functions are also used to specify the distribution of multivariate random variables. Definition The cumulative distribution function of a real-valued random variable X is the function given by where the right-hand side represents the probability that the random variable X takes on a value less than o ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Correlation
In statistics, correlation or dependence is any statistical relationship, whether causal or not, between two random variables or bivariate data. Although in the broadest sense, "correlation" may indicate any type of association, in statistics it usually refers to the degree to which a pair of variables are ''linearly'' related. Familiar examples of dependent phenomena include the correlation between the height of parents and their offspring, and the correlation between the price of a good and the quantity the consumers are willing to purchase, as it is depicted in the so-called demand curve. Correlations are useful because they can indicate a predictive relationship that can be exploited in practice. For example, an electrical utility may produce less power on a mild day based on the correlation between electricity demand and weather. In this example, there is a causal relationship, because extreme weather causes people to use more electricity for heating or cooling. However ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Dependency Relation
In computer science, in particular in concurrency theory, a dependency relation is a binary relation on a finite domain \Sigma, symmetric, and reflexive; i.e. a finite tolerance relation. That is, it is a finite set of ordered pairs D, such that * If (a,b)\in D then (b,a) \in D (symmetric) * If a \in \Sigma, then (a,a) \in D (reflexive) In general, dependency relations are not transitive; thus, they generalize the notion of an equivalence relation by discarding transitivity. \Sigma is also called the alphabet on which D is defined. The independency induced by D is the binary relation I :I = (\Sigma \times \Sigma) \setminus D That is, the independency is the set of all ordered pairs that are not in D. The independency relation is symmetric and irreflexive. Conversely, given any symmetric and irreflexive relation I on a finite alphabet, the relation :D = (\Sigma \times \Sigma) \setminus I is a dependency relation. The pair (\Sigma, D) is called the concurrent alphabe ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Covariance And Correlation
In probability theory and statistics, the mathematical concepts of covariance and correlation are very similar. Both describe the degree to which two random variables or sets of random variables tend to deviate from their expected values in similar ways. If ''X'' and ''Y'' are two random variables, with means (expected values) ''μX'' and ''μY'' and standard deviations ''σX'' and ''σY'', respectively, then their covariance and correlation are as follows: : so that :\rho_ = \sigma_ / (\sigma_X \sigma_Y) where ''E'' is the expected value operator. Notably, correlation is dimensionless while covariance is in units obtained by multiplying the units of the two variables. If ''Y'' always takes on the same values as ''X'', we have the covariance of a variable with itself (i.e. \sigma_), which is called the variance and is more commonly denoted as \sigma_X^2, the square of the standard deviation. The ''correlation'' of a variable with itself is always 1 (except in the dege ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Independence (probability Theory)
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds. Similarly, two random variables are independent if the realization of one does not affect the probability distribution of the other. When dealing with collections of more than two events, two notions of independence need to be distinguished. The events are called pairwise independent if any two events in the collection are independent of each other, while mutual independence (or collective independence) of events means, informally speaking, that each event is independent of any combination of other events in the collection. A similar notion exists for collections of random variables. Mutual independence implies pairwise independence ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
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