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Rare Events
Rare or extreme events are events that occur with low frequency, and often refers to infrequent events that have widespread impact and which might destabilize systems (for example, stock markets, ocean wave intensity or optical fibers or society). Rare events encompass natural phenomena (major earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, asteroid impacts, solar flares, etc.), anthropogenic hazards (warfare and related forms of violent conflict, acts of terrorism, industrial accidents, financial and commodity market crashes, etc.), as well as phenomena for which natural and anthropogenic factors interact in complex ways (epidemic disease spread, global warming-related changes in climate and weather, etc.). Overview Rare or extreme events are discrete occurrences of infrequently observed events. Despite being statistically improbable, such events are plausible insofar as historical instances of the event (or a similar event) have been documented. Scholarly and popular analyses of rare ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Human Impact On The Environment
Human impact on the environment (or anthropogenic impact) refers to changes to biophysical environments and to ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources caused directly or indirectly by humans. Modifying the environment to fit the needs of society is causing severe effects including global warming, environmental degradation (such as ocean acidification), mass extinction and biodiversity loss, ecological crisis, and ecological collapse. Some human activities that cause damage (either directly or indirectly) to the environment on a global scale include population growth, overconsumption, overexploitation, pollution, and deforestation. Some of the problems, including global warming and biodiversity loss, have been proposed as representing catastrophic risks to the survival of the human species. The term ''anthropogenic'' designates an effect or object resulting from human activity. The term was first used in the technical sense by Russian geologist Alexey Pavlov, and it w ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Polio
Poliomyelitis, commonly shortened to polio, is an infectious disease caused by the poliovirus. Approximately 70% of cases are asymptomatic; mild symptoms which can occur include sore throat and fever; in a proportion of cases more severe symptoms develop such as headache, neck stiffness, and paresthesia. These symptoms usually pass within one or two weeks. A less common symptom is permanent paralysis, and possible death in extreme cases.. Years after recovery, post-polio syndrome may occur, with a slow development of muscle weakness similar to that which the person had during the initial infection. Polio occurs naturally only in humans. It is highly infectious, and is spread from person to person either through fecal-oral transmission (e.g. poor hygiene, or by ingestion of food or water contaminated by human feces), or via the oral-oral route. Those who are infected may spread the disease for up to six weeks even if no symptoms are present. The disease may be diagnosed ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rare Event Sampling
Rare event sampling is an umbrella term for a group of computer simulation methods intended to selectively sample 'special' regions of the dynamic space of systems which are unlikely to visit those special regions through brute-force simulation. A familiar example of a rare event in this context would be nucleation of a raindrop from over-saturated water vapour: although raindrops form every day, relative to the length and time scales defined by the motion of water molecules in the vapour phase, the formation of a liquid droplet is extremely rare. Due to the wide use of computer simulation across very different domains, articles on the topic arise from quite disparate sources and it is difficult to make a coherent survey of rare event sampling techniques. Contemporary methods include Transition Path Sampling (TPS), Replica Exchange Transition Interface Sampling (RETIS), Repetitive Simulation Trials After Reaching Thresholds (RESTART), Forward Flux Sampling (FFS), Generalized ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Rare Disasters
In economics, a rare disaster is a collapse that is infrequent and large in magnitude, having a negative effect on an economy. Rare disasters are important because they provide an explanation of the equity premium puzzle, the behavior of interest rates, and other economic phenomena. The parameters for a rare disaster are a substantial drop in GDP and at least a 10% decrease in consumption. Examples include financial disasters: the Great Depression and the 1997 Asian financial crisis; wars: World War I, World War II, and regional conflicts; epidemics: influenza outbreaks and the Asian Flu; weather events; and earthquakes and tsunamis; however, any event that has a substantial impact on GDP and consumption could be considered a rare disaster. The idea was first proposed by Rietz in 1988, as a way to explain the equity premium puzzle. Since then, other economists have added to and strengthened the idea with evidence, but many economists are still skeptical of the theory. Model ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Global Catastrophic Risks
A global catastrophic risk or a doomsday scenario is a hypothetical future event that could damage human well-being on a global scale, even endangering or destroying modern civilization. An event that could cause human extinction or permanently and drastically curtail humanity's potential is known as an "existential risk." Over the last two decades, a number of academic and non-profit organizations have been established to research global catastrophic and existential risks, formulate potential mitigation measures and either advocate for or implement these measures. Definition and classification Defining global catastrophic risks The term global catastrophic risk "lacks a sharp definition", and generally refers (loosely) to a risk that could inflict "serious damage to human well-being on a global scale". Humanity has suffered large catastrophes before. Some of these have caused serious damage but were only local in scope—e.g. the Black Death may have resulted in the d ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Extreme Value Theory
Extreme value theory or extreme value analysis (EVA) is a branch of statistics dealing with the extreme deviations from the median of probability distributions. It seeks to assess, from a given ordered sample of a given random variable, the probability of events that are more extreme than any previously observed. Extreme value analysis is widely used in many disciplines, such as structural engineering, finance, earth sciences, traffic prediction, and geological engineering. For example, EVA might be used in the field of hydrology to estimate the probability of an unusually large flooding event, such as the 100-year flood. Similarly, for the design of a breakwater, a coastal engineer would seek to estimate the 50-year wave and design the structure accordingly. Data analysis Two main approaches exist for practical extreme value analysis. The first method relies on deriving block maxima (minima) series as a preliminary step. In many situations it is customary and convenient to e ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Black Swan Theory
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not exist a saying that became reinterpreted to teach a different lesson after they were discovered in Australia. The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, starting in 2001, to explain: # The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology. # The non-computability of the probability of consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities). # The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and a rare event's massive role in historical affairs. Taleb's "black swan theory" ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Radiation Exposure
Radiation is a moving form of energy, classified into ionizing and non-ionizing type. Ionizing radiation is further categorized into electromagnetic radiation (without matter) and particulate radiation (with matter). Electromagnetic radiation consists of photons, which can be thought of as energy packets, traveling in the form of a wave. Examples of electromagnetic radiation includes X-rays and gamma rays (see photo "Types of Electromagnetic Radiation"). These types of radiation can easily penetrate the human body because of high energy. Radiation exposure is a measure of the ionization of air due to ionizing radiation from photons. It is defined as the electric charge freed by such radiation in a specified volume of air divided by the mass of that air. Medical exposure is defined by the International Commission on Radiological Protection as exposure incurred by patients as part of their own medical or dental diagnosis or treatment; by persons, other than those occupationally expos ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Yellow Fever
Yellow fever is a viral disease of typically short duration. In most cases, symptoms include fever, chills, loss of appetite, nausea, muscle pains – particularly in the back – and headaches. Symptoms typically improve within five days. In about 15% of people, within a day of improving the fever comes back, abdominal pain occurs, and liver damage begins causing yellow skin. If this occurs, the risk of bleeding and kidney problems is increased. The disease is caused by the yellow fever virus and is spread by the bite of an infected mosquito. It infects humans, other primates, and several types of mosquitoes. In cities, it is spread primarily by ''Aedes aegypti'', a type of mosquito found throughout the tropics and subtropics. The virus is an RNA virus of the genus ''Flavivirus''. The disease may be difficult to tell apart from other illnesses, especially in the early stages. To confirm a suspected case, blood-sample testing with polymerase chain reaction is required. A saf ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Cholera
Cholera is an infection of the small intestine by some strains of the bacterium ''Vibrio cholerae''. Symptoms may range from none, to mild, to severe. The classic symptom is large amounts of watery diarrhea that lasts a few days. Vomiting and muscle cramps may also occur. Diarrhea can be so severe that it leads within hours to severe dehydration and electrolyte imbalance. This may result in sunken eyes, cold skin, decreased skin elasticity, and wrinkling of the hands and feet. Dehydration can cause the skin to turn bluish. Symptoms start two hours to five days after exposure. Cholera is caused by a number of types of ''Vibrio cholerae'', with some types producing more severe disease than others. It is spread mostly by unsafe water and unsafe food that has been contaminated with human feces containing the bacteria. Undercooked shellfish is a common source. Humans are the only known host for the bacteria. Risk factors for the disease include poor sanitation, not enough clea ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
Statistical Distribution
In statistics, an empirical distribution function (commonly also called an empirical Cumulative Distribution Function, eCDF) is the distribution function associated with the empirical measure of a sample. This cumulative distribution function is a step function that jumps up by at each of the data points. Its value at any specified value of the measured variable is the fraction of observations of the measured variable that are less than or equal to the specified value. The empirical distribution function is an estimate of the cumulative distribution function that generated the points in the sample. It converges with probability 1 to that underlying distribution, according to the Glivenko–Cantelli theorem. A number of results exist to quantify the rate of convergence of the empirical distribution function to the underlying cumulative distribution function. Definition Let be independent, identically distributed real random variables with the common cumulative distribu ... [...More Info...] [...Related Items...] OR: [Wikipedia] [Google] [Baidu] |
